Critics of China's Three Gorges dam said an unusual Chinese government statement this week acknowledging serious flaws in the project, while unlikely to mark a major shift in policy, could provide ammunition to those opposing other hydropower projects in the world's biggest dam-building nation.
In a statement approved by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, the country's cabinet, the State Council, said Thursday that the $23 billion Three Gorges project, while providing 'huge comprehensive benefits,' also suffered from a number of problems that were 'urgently in need of resolution.'
Among the problems were ecological deterioration, the potential for geological disasters and the uncertain status of the more than a million people relocated to make way for the dam.
Beijing has publicly recognized problems associated with the dam on several occasions before, but activists said Thursday's statement was unique in bearing the imprimatur of Mr. Wen, the country's No. 2 leader.
Mr. Wen, like his predecessor Zhu Rongji, has long had reservations about the Three Gorges project, according to veteran environmentalist Dai Qing.
'Both Wen and Zhu have made remarks about disliking this project, but because of their position, both had no choice but to support it,' said Ms. Dai, herself a vocal opponent of the dam for many years. 'Now that the problems can no longer be covered up, I think Wen is seizing the opportunity to bring them more into public view.'
Mr. Wen, a geologist by training, is reported to have talked about the need to address environmental concerns around the dam at State Council meetings in 2006 and 2007.
The world's largest dam at 600 feet tall, the Three Gorges has been shrouded in controversy since long before it was built.
The project encountered rare opposition in the country's normally docile legislature when it was submitted for approval in 1992, fed by concerns over the enormous social and environmental costs, as well as the geological risks of walling off such a huge expanse of water.
Arguing that the dam would help control flooding on the Yangtze River and provide a much-needed source of clean energy─not to mention stand as an emblem of Chinese engineering prowess─proponents of the project eventually prevailed.
The dam has largely delivered on its promise to deliver low-carbon electricity, producing roughly 84 billion kilowatt hours in 2010, according to state-run media. But issues ranging from pollution-fed algae blooms to mountainous islands of floating trash to worrying cracks in the earth in nearby fields have revived concerns over the project.
Torrential rains and precipitously high water levels last year strained the dam and led officials to downplay its ability to control floods.
What may have finally tipped the balance, dam critics say, is a severe drought affecting swathes of central and eastern China. The result of record-low rainfall, the drought has all but drained nearly 1,400 reservoirs in the central province of Hubei and 'severely affected' 4.2 million people, according to state media reports.
'The water shortfalls from this spring have spread through many of China's provinces, making it impossible for the central government to cover up the problems,' Ms. Dai said.
The severity of the drought has forced officials to discharge massive amounts of water from the Three Gorges reservoir, prompting fears that rapidly falling water levels could lead to landslides, or even earthquakes.
While offering an unusually frank assessment of the problems associated with the Three Gorges project, Thursday's statement offered few specific solutions, saying that the government planned to increase efforts to mitigate water pollution, improve the lives of those displaced by the project and 'further build out a long-range geological disaster prevention mechanism.'
Ms. Dai said she was encouraged by the government's willingness to address flaws in the project, but cast doubt on Beijing's ability to make good on that pledge, particularly in the case of geological disruptions. 'It's already too late to solve a lot of the problems,' she said.
Wang Yongchen, another prominent environmentalist, argued that some of the smaller issues like water pollution and a loss of wetlands can still be addressed but agreed that the government is limited in its ability to tackle more serious issues.
'Those problems, you can't do anything about them,' she said. 'You can't blow up the dam, can you?'
Still, Ms. Wang said, the statement was a potentially valuable weapon in the fight against future big dams. 'It makes it easier for us to push for change.'
The National Energy Agency announced in January that China plans to add 140 gigawatts of new hydropower capacity over the next five years, with the goal, outlined in the latest five-year plan, of producing 11% of its energy from nonfossil fuel sources by 2015.
The plans include a long-debated cascade of 13 dams along the Nu River in the country's ecologically diverse southwest, which is home to dozens of endangered species.
Mr. Wen has been a consistent and vocal opponent of that plan and is credited by Ms. Wang with preventing the dams from being built despite intense lobbying from local governments and proponents of hydropower.
Ms. Wang is not alone in interpreting Thursday's statement as a sign of the Chinese leader's continued reservations about the country's hydropower push.
Calling the statement 'unexpected,' Peter Bosshard, policy director at International Rivers, a California-based advocacy group, noted comments Mr. Wen made earlier this year warning against sacrificing the environment in pursuit of rapid economic growth.
'By recalling the unresolved legacy of the Three Gorges Dam,' Mr. Bosshard wrote in a blog post on the International Rivers website, 'he may be sending a shot across the bow of the zealous dam builders which would be only too happy to forget about the lessons of past projects.
JOSH CHIN
中國承認三峽工程缺陷 批評人士反應強烈
批
評中國三峽大壩的人士說﹐中國政府上週少有地發表聲明承認三峽工程存在嚴重缺陷﹐儘管此舉不太可能意味著政策將發生重大轉變﹐卻有可能為那些反對在世界最大的大壩建設國家修建其他水電項目的人士提供攻擊的“彈藥”。國務院週四在溫家寶總理批准的一份聲明中說﹐耗資230億美元的三峽工程發揮了“巨大綜合效益”﹐但還存在“一些亟需解決的問題”。
Imaginechina / Zuma Press
2010年7月﹐洪水從三峽大壩奔瀉而出。
北京過去在數個場合都曾公開承認三峽大壩存在問題﹐不過活動人士說週四的聲明獨特之處在於有著中國二號領導人溫家寶的認可。
據資深環保人士戴晴說﹐與其前任朱熔基一樣﹐溫家寶一直對三峽工程有保留意見。
戴晴說﹐溫家寶和朱熔基都曾發表過不喜歡三峽工程的言論﹐不過由於他們的地位﹐兩人除支持外別無選擇。如今既然問題無法繼續掩蓋下去﹐我認為溫家寶將把握機會將問題更多地公佈於眾。戴晴多年來一直直言不諱地公開反對三峽大壩。
溫家寶是學地質出身。據報導﹐溫家寶在2006年和2007年的國務院會議上曾說過有必要解決三峽大壩帶來的環境問題。
三峽大壩是世界上最大的大壩﹐高600英尺（合183米）﹐早在建設之前﹐就已經是外界爭議的焦點。
1992年﹐三峽工程方案提交審議時﹐在中國通常溫順的人大會議上遭遇了少有的反對﹐人們既擔心三峽工程巨大的社會和環境成本﹐也擔心用大壩攔截如此大片水域可能帶來的地質風險。
支持三峽工程的人士說﹐大壩有望幫助控制長江上的洪災﹐提供急需的清潔能源來源﹐更不用說可以作為中國工程實力的一個象徵﹐最終支持派獲勝。
三峽大壩基本上兌現了輸送低碳電能的承諾。據國有媒體報導﹐2010年其發電量約840億度。不過﹐從污染產生的藻類植物爆發﹐漂浮垃圾堆成的巨大島嶼﹐到附近地區土層令人擔憂的裂縫﹐這些都再次點燃了對三峽工程的擔憂。
去年的暴雨和激增的水位令大壩出現險情﹐官員們也因此淡化大壩控制洪災的能力。
批評三峽大壩的人士說﹐最終影響輿論的可能是一場襲擊中國中部和東部大片地區的嚴重乾旱。據國有媒體報導﹐創紀錄的少降水造成的嚴重乾旱令中部湖北省的近1,400個水庫乾涸﹐嚴重影響了420萬居民。
戴晴說﹐今春的缺水已經蔓延到中國很多省份﹐使中央政府無法掩蓋問題。
旱情之嚴重﹐迫使官方從三峽水庫大量放水﹐讓人擔心水位迅速下降可能導致滑坡甚至地震。
雖然上週四聲明對三峽工程相關問題給出了少見的坦誠判斷﹐但沒有拿出什麼具體的解決辦法﹐只是說政府打算加大力度減輕水污染﹐改善庫區移民生活﹐並進一步健全“地質災害防治長效機制”。
戴晴說﹐政府處理三峽大壩工程缺陷的意願讓她受到鼓舞﹐但不相信北京有能力兌現這一承諾﹐特別是對於防治地質災害的承諾。她說﹐很多問題解決起來都已經太遲了。
另一位知名環保主義者汪永晨認為﹐水污染、濕地減少等一些較小問題仍然可以解決。但她也認為﹐政府處理更嚴峻問題能力有限。
她說﹐那些問題﹐什麼也做不了﹐你不可能把大壩炸了﹐那樣行嗎？
但汪永晨說﹐國務院聲明可能會成為將來反對修建大壩的一個寶貴武器。她說﹐這使我們更容易推動改革。
國家能源局1月份公佈﹐中國計劃在未來五年內新增1400億瓦的水力發電能力。據最新五年規劃﹐非化石能源發電的比例到2015年要達到11%。
這些計劃包括沿著怒江修建13座水壩。怒江所在的中國西南是一個生態多樣化地區﹐擁有數十種瀕危物種﹐在怒江修水壩的計劃長期備受爭議。
溫家寶一直堅決反對這個計劃﹐汪永晨認為﹐正是因為他的反對﹐才使得這些大壩在地方政府和水電支持者強力遊說的情況下仍然沒有修建。
不止汪永晨一個人認為﹐上週四聲明說明溫家寶對中國的水電浪潮仍持保留態度。
美國加州遊說團體國際河流組織(International Rivers)政策主任波斯哈德(Peter Bosshard)說﹐國務院這則聲明讓人意外。他提到溫家寶今年早前說不要為了追求經濟高增長而犧牲環境的言論。
波斯哈德在國際河流組織網站上發表博客文章說﹐溫家寶重新提起三峽大壩未解決的遺留問題﹐可能是在對那些狂熱修建大壩的人發出警告﹔這些人巴不得忘掉以往工程帶來的教訓。
JOSH CHIN
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