2014年5月31日 星期六

Obama says the U.S. will lead the world for the next 100 years. China disagrees.

Obama says the U.S. will lead the world for the next 100 years. China disagrees.

The sun sets behind the Chinese national flag fluttering on top of the Great Hall of the People in where a plenary session of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference is held in Beijing Monday, March 11, 2013. China took another step toward completing its leadership handover Monday with the appointment of Yu Zhengsheng, an official best known for his communist pedigree, to head a top government advisory body. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
The sun sets behind the Chinese national flag fluttering on top of the Great Hall of the People in March 12013.  (Ng Han Guan/AP)
This week, President  Obama said that the U.S. will remain the one indispensable nation in the century to come. One country who has its own dreams of leadership wasn't quite so sure, however.
On Thursday, at a regular briefing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Qin Gang commented with sarcasm. “It seems that the U.S. really enjoys being the leader of the world,” he said, before casting doubt on Obama's prediction by making reference to a World Cup-predicting sea creature. “However, in the field of international relations, I wonder if there exists a 'Paul the Octopus' who can predict the future.”
His comments were a direct response to remarks delivered by  Obama at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, N.Y., commencement ceremony this Wednesday. In his speech,  Obama reflected on America’s foreign policy agenda and articulated his vision of America’s role in the world.
“America must always lead on the world stage," Obama declared. "If we don’t, no one else will.”
Qin's comments weren't the only sign of an official reaction. The Global Times, China’s state-run nationalist-leaning newspaper, later published an editorial and challenged that view, asking, “America wants to lead the world for another 100 years, but with what?”
The editorial went on to say that America was not powerful enough to support its “luxurious dream” of leading the world, arguing that America was “greedy for all kinds of power” but lacks “a big heart,” which is “a key factor to be a leader.”
“The revival and rise of China and Russia makes America extremely anxious,” the editorial said. With volatile policies towards China and Russia, America will “be importing its anxiety to the world if it is to ‘lead the world.' ”
Another editorial published in Party mouthpiece People’s Daily said Obama’s remarks on the U.S. world leadership “once again revealed that America wanted to seek hegemony with the cold war thinking of a global alliances system.” The rapid development of technology, integration of world economy and people has never “changed America’s old weakness of seeing the new world with old thoughts and exceptionalism,” the editorial said.
Comments from the U.S. about foreign policy often stir discussion in China, and both leftists and rightists fiercely debate whether the Chinese adore the West too much. Even the self-reflection of a U.S. president on its own foreign policy has caused blatant criticism from state media.
Compared with direct criticism from state media, however, the comments from Qin Gang, the Foreign Ministry spokesperson, seemed to be more restrained and veiled. He resorted to ancient Chinese wisdom. “China once led the world for more than one hundred years in history. The rise and fall in history left us with both experience and lessons.
“Today, we still talk about the wisdom recorded over 2,000 years ago in a chronicle called Zuo Zhuan. It reads: Some rulers can lead their states to unstoppable prosperity because they examine themselves instead of blaming others, like Emperor Yu and Emperor Tang, while some bring their reigns to swift demise because they always criticize others, like Emperor Jie and Emperor Zhou.”

2014年5月30日 星期五

Go Local :重視亞洲史、語言和人情風俗之研究Vietnam's fury at China's expansionism can be traced to a troubled history


Kuo Wei Wu 千萬不能政府辦!否則就跟我們當年出國一樣,說謊、作假到作密探
Hanching Chung 當然。我寫錯了,我參加的是、美國外橋協會"在"美國俱樂部"辦的"美國文化入門"。

所以我昨晚建議朋友從 亞洲史 之認識出發;

建議讀讀"亞洲史兩書: A History of Asia /East Asia: tradition and transformation, " 前一本書第601頁有些說明;越南與中國南方民族更近,不過一直有獨立身份意識.....受中國影響偏上層和政治.....他們和東南亞文化互動密切......http://hcbooks.blogspot.tw/2007/10/blog-post_144.html

Lesson for Taiwan Firms After Vietnam’s Anti-Chinese Riots: Go Local

Smoke billowing from a Taiwanese furniture factory in Binh Duong.
Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
For the Taiwanese companies whose factories were destroyed in the recent riots in Vietnam, advice from analysts all carries the same tune: think globally, act locally.
Earlier this month, Taiwanese manufacturers became collateral damage when an anti-China protest sparked by Beijing’s placement of an oil rig in a part of the South China Sea in which Vietnam also claims ownership resulted in the destruction of scores of foreign-owned plants. Taiwanese manufacturers suffered the heaviest blow. According to the island’s government, more than 200 Taiwanese factories were damaged and at least 18 were set on fire.
While the underpinning cause of the riots is still under investigation, one theory is that the rioters may have mistaken Taiwanese factories as Chinese ones. Others suspect that Vietnamese workers at the Taiwanese plants may have been angry with their managers, many of whom are Chinese.
For many analysts, the take-home message for the damaged firms isn’t to beef up security or do more to distinguish themselves from the their Chinese counterparts; rather, they should create an atmosphere of collective responsibility by localizing their management team, said Winston Yu, chairman of accounting and consulting firm KPMG Taiwan.
Since around 2000, a number of Taiwanese companies have moved their operations from China to Vietnam as Chinese wages rise. And while the firms brought job opportunities for Vietnamese workers, many also brought their management staff from China.
The Chinese staff at the Taiwanese factories in Vietnam are far fewer in number but have greater authority and much higher pay compared with the Vietnamese workers.
According to James Wang, country manager of Ernst and Young Taiwan, a Vietnamese supervisor or department manager in a Taiwanese-owned factory makes $500 a month on average, while local, low-level staff earn around $150-$200 a month. A Chinese manager at the same plant who assumes a more senior role, makes $1,300-$1,500, compared with around $2,000 for a Taiwanese manager.
“The riots rattled Taiwanese investors’ confidence in Vietnam, but given the country’s affordability, close proximity to the China market, and a burgeoning domestic demand, pulling out is not an option,” said Mr. Wang.
Because the geopolitical tensions are expected to linger and leaving isn’t in the cards, to minimize tension inside the company Taiwanese companies should restructure their operation style, starting with becoming more localized, he said.
The benefits of localization goes beyond cost-saving, it also “creates a sense of stewardship and fosters synergy among the local hires,” said Mr. Yu.
Feng Tay Group, a major Taiwanese shoe maker whose clients include Nike, Bauer and Clarks, said it believes its efforts to localize staff helped its plant in Binh Duong—where two other Taiwanese factories were burned down—to escape rioters’ wrath. Feng Tay’s plant has one Vietnamese general manger, several Vietnamese supervisors, and no Chinese staff.
“Localization has been a top priority for us because we believe it’s a way to boost morale among the local workers,” said Amy Chen, the company’s spokeswoman. “Besides, they are usually quite good at their jobs.
– Jenny W. Hsu. Follow her on Twitter @jen1113

Vietnam's fury at China's expansionism can be traced to a troubled history

China's energy needs and a weak Asean bloc are fuelling its aggressive pursuit of oil off the disputed Paracel Islands
Protesters holding Vietnamese flags attempt to push down the gate of a factory in Bien Hoa
Protesters holding Vietnamese flags try to push down a factory gate in Bien Hoa, Dong Nai province, amid anti-China demonstrations. Photo: AFP/Getty
China's provocative decision to station a $1bn (£600m) deep-sea oil drilling rig in disputed waters 120 miles off Vietnam – well within Hanoi's 200-mile exclusive economic zone, in clear breach of a 2011 bilateral maritime pact and in defiance of regional and international agreements – can be explained, though not justified, in several ways.
The most prosaic explanation is that China's state-owned National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), the rig's owner, is keen to develop sources of oil and gas for the country's energy-hungry economy that do not depend on exploration agreements with western oil companies.
China regards the Paracel Islands, near the drilling site, as its sovereign territory. It takes a similar view of 90% of the 1.35m sq mile (3.5m sq km) South China Sea. The fact that nobody else agrees does not seem to bother Beijing.
"Large deep-water drilling rigs are our mobile national territory," said Wang Yilin, CNOOC's chairman, in 2012.
At the other end of the spectrum, China's move can be seen as a direct rebuff to Barack Obama, who recently completed a four-country Asia "reassurance tour" designed to strengthen regional alliances as part of his administration's so-called "tilt" to Asia.
In Tokyo, the US president warned China against forcibly pressing its maritime claims, following Beijing's unilateral declaration last autumn of an air exclusion zone over Japanese-controlled islands in the East China Sea. Obama offered specific security guarantees to Tokyo and stepped up US military co-operation with the Philippines, which is embroiled in similar disputes.
Obama denied his intention was the "containment" of China. Whatever the truth, China plainly is not ready to be contained. Its response to his strictures was to send a flotilla of 80 ships to escort the oil rig. When Vietnamese vessels challenged them, they were rammed and fired upon with water cannon.
China's action may alternatively be viewed as a warning to the 10-country Association of South-East Asian Nations (Asean), with which it has repeatedly failed to agree a long-awaited, legally binding code of conduct on maritime disputes. China is also in effect ignoring the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.
In response to Beijing's growing assertiveness, Asean member states such as Indonesia and Malaysia have been upgrading their weapons arsenals and pursuing new defensive alliances both within the bloc and with the US and Australia.
"South-east Asian states are working to enhance their so-called 'anti-access/area-denial' capabilities. Vietnam [for example] has ordered six Kilo-class submarines," said an analysis by the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Singapore and Thailand have also joined this mini-arms race.
All the same, China's scare tactics appear to be working. Last weekend's Asean summit in Burma failed to agree on language criticising China for the final communiqué. An earlier, separate statement called only for "self-restraint" in the South China Sea without mentioning China or Vietnam by name.
This disarray reflects ongoing disagreements within Asean on how to handle an overbearing, militarily superior neighbour that is also their biggest trading and investment partner.
The current China-Vietnam confrontation can also be seen as the by-product of a troubled past. That both countries are in effect one-party, Communist-run states, and that China supported Hanoi during the Vietnam war may give a misleading impression of their overall historical relationship.
In truth, there is no love lost between the two. Vietnam was repeatedly invaded and occupied by imperial China for hundreds of years. The first Vietnamese nationalists defined their cause in relation to the threat posed by Beijing. After Vietnam's reunification in 1975, strains quickly emerged and the two countries went to war briefly in 1979. China again occupied the north while the Soviet Union backed the Vietnamese.
More recently, Vietnam's lurch into Beijing-style communist-capitalism has been accompanied by deliberate attempts to mend fences with the arch-capitalists of the US. George W Bush visited in 2006, following in Bill Clinton's footsteps. Bilateral trade has grown rapidly in recent years, as has a tentative security relationship.
The US remains wary of closer ties, however, maintaining that Vietnam must first improve its human rights record. The fact that John Kerry, the US secretary of state, and Chuck Hagel, the defence secretary, are both Vietnam war veterans may also be a factor.
This caution may be discarded if China continues to menace Vietnam and others in the region. Less than one year ago Li Keqiang, the Chinese premier, signed agreements with Vietnam on trade, infrastructure and maritime security, including recommitting China to a 2011 bilateral pact to manage peaceably their differences in the South China sea.
The deals were supposedly part of a charm offensive by China's new leadership to woo Asean countries. This seems forgotten now, as old enmities and present-day ambitions create new grounds for confrontation.

爭領土 中日「正面對決」 安倍積極倡海空安全 與越菲首聚

爭領土 中日「正面對決」

與越菲首聚 安倍積極倡海空安全

【簡 竹君、陳家齊╱綜合外電報導】「日本希望在亞洲與世界和平上,扮演更大、更主動、更明確的角色。」日本首相安倍晉三昨在亞洲安全會議發表演說,由於這是中 國與日本、越南、菲律賓近來領土爭議白熱化後,諸國高層官員首次齊聚,外媒以「北京與東京正面對決」形容會議暗潮洶湧。

這是首次由日相在該會發表開幕演說,安倍演說內容呼應他希望更主動使用日本的武力,鬆開日本和平《憲法》限制的立場。他也表示:「東南亞國協 (ASEAN)各國努力確保海上與空中安全時,日本將盡最大努力提供援助,並協助維護(公海的)自由航行權與自由飛越權。」此處的自由航行權與自由飛越 權,暗與中國在南海與東海海域聲稱的領土要求針鋒相對。




《外交官》雜誌(The Diplomat)指傅瑩會是安倍在這場會議中「難纏的對手」,她是中國迄今與會的非軍方最高官員,該雜誌以「絲絨手套中的鐵拳」形容她外柔內剛的外交手腕。





05/26 數艘越南漁船在南海被約40艘中國漁船圍住,一越南漁船遭中方撞沉
05/24 日本自衛隊2架偵察機在東海上空,遭中國2架SU-27戰機緊追,一度逼近到只有30公尺
05/16 越南漁船遭中國漁政船控制,船員被毆,船遭破壞
5/15 菲國公布南沙群島的赤瓜礁空照圖,顯示中國在填海造地,疑似建立機場跑道,試圖擴張前哨以增加對南海的掌控
05/07 越南漁船在西沙群島遭中國船隻驅趕衝撞,船身受損
05/06 菲國警方強行扣留在南沙群島半月礁作業的中國漁船,控其非法捕撈海龜,起訴9名中國漁民
05/02 中國將一鑽油平台移至西沙群島,並派船艦護衛,引發越南不滿


中國宣佈在年底前淘汰數百萬輛老舊汽車,以整治大氣污染問題。 《南德意志報》認為,該政策能帶來的成效有限,中國必須更有效利用能源。Smog in Shanghai
(德國之聲中文網)為了整治大氣污染問題,中國宣布2014年底前淘汰600萬輛黃標車及老舊車輛,禁止此類汽車上路。 《南德意志報》週五在經濟欄目中寫道,此一政策能帶來的成效有限:
"中國共產黨幹部緩慢地意識到大量節約能源及保護環境的重要性。2011年國務院發布了國家發展計劃,涵蓋發展城鎮化、經濟增長、資源利用及環境保護。但距離這個樂觀目標還相當遙遠。 "
"中國從來不缺少各種雄心勃勃的計劃。如何付諸實行才是最大的挑戰。因為要解決問題,必須齊心協力:國企及其各種利益、私營經濟領域、消費者和不同派別的政治陣​​營。"China Straßenverkehr in Peking

可持續發展顧問公司德索美(Drees & Sommer)的馬可·阿卜杜拉(Marco Abdallah)認為,通過正確宣傳手法,便能引發人們對於更高效技術的興趣,而價格才是許多良好構思和概念失敗的原因,因為投資者往往只重視短期利益。
文章最後寫道:"總括來說,要使全國上下通力合作更為困難。如果成功,對於中國和世界而言都是好事。然而,這並不代表人們便可高枕無憂。阿卜杜拉表示: '節省能源的措施能減緩排放的增加,但在可預見的未來中,仍然無法遏止排放。'"
根據歐盟商會的最新研究,中國對外國企業仍充滿吸引力,但是在當地經商變得愈發困難。 《法蘭克福匯報》指出,中國過去是外國投資者趨之若鶩的投資市場,如今情況出現轉變,其經濟增速放緩,外資面臨生產成本增加,市場准入限制以及當地企業的競爭。
文章指出,歐洲企業對於中國網絡安全的擔憂也正增加。 80%的受訪者對此存在憂慮。許多人注意到,中國的網絡審查增加或網絡速度下降。
"中國歐盟商會主席伍德克(Jörg Wuttke)表示,中國的經商條件變得嚴苛,與此同時,這個全球第二大經濟體的擴張速度正在冷卻。'半數的歐洲企業認為,國際康采恩在中國的黃金時代已經過去。'"




大 法官釋字第603號解釋文早已明示,當國家基於特定重大公益之目的而有建立大規模資料庫之必要時,「應以法律明定其蒐集之目的,其蒐集應與重大公益目的之 達成,具有密切之必要性與關聯性,並應明文禁止法定目的外之使用」;此外,政府為確保資訊正確及安全,同時採取「組織上與程序上必要之防護措施」。

然 而,當警方最近濫用「警政雲端運算發展計畫」,擴充M-POLICE的人臉辨識功能,直接透過行動裝置連結到戶籍系統進行照片等個資比對時,不但有濫權執 法蒐證之虞,在處理利用個資時毫無法律授權,也罔顧大法官上述憲法要求。這種違法違憲操弄資料庫的統治術,正分秒不斷地摧毀你我的資訊自主和人格尊嚴,違 反法治國家下政府權力應自我節制的基本要求,帶著大家走向獨裁統治之路。

警政署端出來遮羞用的警察職權行使法,雖授權警方在集會遊行或公 共活動中以科技工具對參與者蒐證,但仍須符合法定要件和程序,至於進一步以蒐證所得和戶籍系統中的國民身分證相片影像資料等個資互相比對,已屬侵害人民人 格權和資訊隱私權之舉,在違反法律保留原則的情況下,如何自圓其說?彙集國民身分證相片資料的戶籍法乃以規範「戶籍之登記」為目的,何來授權依據?至於警 政署引用個資法第16條第2款當作比對行為的適法依據,更是可笑之至。

個資法的立法目的是透過種種程序性規定,保護人民資訊隱私和資訊自 主權,本質上是「個資保護的程序法」,絕不可能化身成公務機關要對人民個資進行「特定目的外利用」時的護身符,而是必須另有「作用法」當作授權依據。警政 署連這種大一法律系的基本論理程度都沒有,我們如何能期待其「訂定相關要點進行內部管控」是有效的說法呢?
這種浮濫操弄資料庫的統 治模式,同樣出現在北捷隨機殺人案後,警政署下令加強清查街友、精神病患及反社會等「高危險群」且建立資料庫的現象上。除了同樣欠缺明確法律授權外,上述 族群是否該被列入所謂「高危險群資料庫」中,更有判斷標準過於抽象和個資非法使用等爭議,資訊安全專家Simson Garfinkel十多年前在Database Nation : The Death of Privacy in the 21st Century這本書裡早已預告,至於因此衍生的歧視問題,更是民主憲政體制所不容的野蠻行徑。其實,我們更該戒慎以待的是,這種訴諸恐懼的資料庫統治術 背後所潛藏的,是隨時隨地可以進行「秘密管理及控制」的獨裁危機。
美國知名調查報導記者Edwin Black過去在IBM and the Holocaust和Nazi Nexus等書中,詳細描繪納粹政權如何利用當時的資料庫科技去辨識尋找猶太人,並將之送入集中營的歷史教訓,而東德情報安全機關Stasi在「我們無處 不在」(WIR SIND ?BERALL)的指導原則下所達成的「歷史成就」,便是超過東德總人口三分之一的600萬人都曾被東德政府建立過秘密檔案,成為其秘密警察系統下不受監 督的龐大統治資料庫。

更晚近的事例,則是現任哈佛國際法教授Jack Goldsmith在The Terror Presidency: Law and Judgment Inside the Bush Administration一書中所稱的「恐怖總統」小布希,以反恐之名濫用行政權建立各種資料庫,當作控制國內外情勢的素材,而這些直到歐巴馬執政時 代依然有增無減的資料庫,在Glen Greenwald 最近No Place to Hide: Edward Snowden, the NSA, and the U.S. Surveillance這本分析史諾登事件始末的新書裡,更是多所觸及。難道,這些為時不遠的「國家資料庫經驗」,對我們沒有絲毫啟示作用嗎?資料庫國 家就是痲痹人心的毒藥,真的是你我該擁抱的負面價值嗎?


越南台湾企業も最大500億円被害、 起訴241暴徒 工業區復工6萬人失業 ;越台商支付暴動停工薪資​ 營所稅全額抵扣。富邦產險自留賠款約台幣2.5億元




2014/5/28 20:31



越南起訴241暴徒 工業區復工6萬人失業



越 通社報道,前日同奈省仁澤縣司法機構開庭審理,同塔省人潘文酉和茶榮省人石貴2人涉嫌犯下「盜竊財產罪」。越南警方稱,本月13日和14日,2人趁一些民 眾走上街頭舉行反華活動的機會,煽動民眾打砸和盜竊仁澤縣各工業區的財產。其中,潘文酉和石貴闖入明安有限公司,偷走5枝高爾夫球桿和1對電腦揚聲器,在 出售過程中被公安逮捕。




越台商支付暴動停工薪資​ 營所稅全額抵扣



越 南大暴動導致台商受損嚴重,有些廠商停工近兩周,有些下月才復工,少部分復工時間未定,越方總理府今再公告三方案,已復工台商先支付越勞停工期間薪水,未 來可在營利事業所得稅全額抵扣費用;下月復工者,期間薪資由各省政府先編列預算支付,台商復工後再繳回這筆費用,同樣可在營所稅全額扣除;若還無法復工 者,越方則會在下月中之前研擬解決方案。

根據這份公告指示,方案一是本月12日到25日因暴動停工的台商,目前若已復工,須支付勞工停工 期間薪水,這筆費用未來可在營所稅全額抵扣;方案二是台商下月才能復工者,期間勞工薪水由各省政府編列預算先行支付,等到下月復工後,再把這筆錢還給省政 府,之後同樣在營所稅可抵扣。前兩項方案抵扣額不得超過先前申報賠償損失。











試 想,一字排開的若是七位女性,應該各有各的關注點,絕不會如此集體情懷。宣言中說,參與者都是「基於對國家的忠誠,以及對台灣的摯愛」。台上若站著一排女 性,衣飾髮型表現出個性亮點之外,我敢打賭,必然有人真情畢露,像漢娜‧鄂蘭一般據實說出:「我這一生中從來沒有愛過任何一個民族,任何一個集體,我只愛 我的朋友,我所知道、所信仰的唯一一種愛,就是愛人。 」



細 讀這份宣言,七位大老用心可感,為台灣的美意毋庸懷疑。問題卻是太一廂情願。宣言裡逐字嘔心瀝血,但中南海或國台辦等單位豈肯認真回應?譬如其中要兩岸皆 承認本身是「不完整的國際法人」?中國正待強勢崛起,怎麼說都是「完整的國際法人」,難道聽著台灣叫牌,就甘願由「完整」降格為「不完整」?


宣 言中略去階級懸殊的前景,對台灣的安全性也同樣神經大條。五大原則包括了「雙方承諾互不使用武力,且不得與任何國家簽訂不利於另一方的軍事攻防協定」。依 據我女性的直覺,與其跟中國永結同心,實質上被綁死鎖死;倒不如「多元成家」還安心些。與美國、與日本維持共同防禦條約,對待舊雨或新知,一律等邊関係, 台灣才更為安全。



以 女性眼光看,「大一中架構」的宣言,更像是七位大男人的集體告白!譬如,宣言結尾的「一個破碎的台灣, 不會有未來」,放在性別的角度,就透露出不少玄機,宜做深度的精神分析(我估計,佛洛依德會說,破碎感.....歸因於小男孩的戀母情結,而成年男性的集 體心靈,渴慕一個完整的虛像母體......),或者需要佛洛依德來一併解釋,為什麼男性總是仰賴大的字眼、新的架構,以及為什麼台灣明明是具有自我修復 能力的豐饒之島,這七位大男人卻自覺.....恆常處在「破碎」的狀態。






問 題是第一階段實體園區名單內的基隆港、台北港、蘇澳港、台中港、高雄港、台南安平港、桃園航空港以及屏東農業生技園區的首長們統統缺席代表什麼意思?不看 好嗎?不支持嗎?還是對政治悲觀,明擺著過不了關,懶得浪費時間?如果連國民黨的有關縣市長都意興闌珊,怎麼期待全民支持國民黨政府提出來的示範區?
反對示範區的理由也是唯恐台灣農業的優勢被消滅;而對岸進入示範區的貨物、資本和人員都受惠於示範區政策而可長驅直入,並使中國貨品可以打上「台 灣製造」的字樣銷往全世界。此外,服貿通不過的銀行業、電信業、廣告業、醫療業等,都可進入示範區,形同變相開放中資入台,並影響台灣勞工的權益。易言 之,示範區是服貿的復活版嗎?是舊酒裝新瓶嗎?


政 府須說明示範區和服貿、貨貿的不同與相同點,讓民眾可以清楚分辨。我們支持示範區的設立,也同意示範區是拯救台灣經濟的機會,希望在政府減輕社會疑惑、修 改引人疑慮的部分之後,民進黨能支持示範區的設置,朝野兩黨聯手救經濟,讓民眾一新耳目。否則日後若民進黨執政,國民黨在立院有仇報仇,杯葛所有民進黨政 府提出的重大法案,兩黨冤冤相報,台灣還有什麼希望?




5 月14日星期三,越南暴動方酣,當地台商到處避難,有人甚至躲到垃圾堆裡吃殘餚剩飯才能苟活。但接連兩天,我們的總統府加上國民黨中央,總共開了四場記者 會,不是談越南暴動,也不是談台商營救,全是為馬英九的綠卡事件辯駁;不只如此,還拉著在野領袖要「對賭」,口氣是:「如果馬總統如何如何;你們要不要怎 樣怎樣……」


馬 英九當然可以為自己的名譽而戰,但事總有輕重緩急;馬政府光是綠卡事件就開了四場記者會,越南台商們卻得不到政府關愛,這看在災民眼裡真是欲哭無淚。更何 況,根據國安局長李翔宙說法,我方早在5月8日就已注意到越南情勢不穩,開始與越南公安部聯繫;而暴動從13日開始激化,總統府卻遲到5月14日晚上才召 開國安會議,做出「不排除派專機接我僑民返國」這種不痛不癢的結論傳真給媒體。台商們都被劫掠光了,卻用這種慢三拍的會議結論出口轉內銷。
馬英九顯然很在意外界指控他擁有綠卡,但一紙證明就可以永絕後患的事,為何拖了6、7年講不清楚呢?為了《壹週刊》的報導,總統府終於拿出AIT 的文件證明自己綠卡已經失效,而這6年多來第一次出現的文件,顯然是馬政府強烈向美國交涉後得來的成果。那我們也要問,美國對越南有不小影響力,馬政府這 股鍥而不捨的精神,這兩天有沒有用來與美國交涉護僑?


最 離譜的是,為了與在野黨互嗆,總統府竟然拿出總統名器與在野黨對賭,宣稱「如果真的需要向美國繳稅,願辭職負責。」姑且不論這其中是非曲直如何,這等於是 馬英九將總統職位拿給美國政府定奪,但你怎麼知道美國政府會不會玩陰的?會不會藉此來要脅中華民國總統?這明顯愧於職守、作賤總統名器。

2014年5月28日 星期三

Wang Dan to Beijing: Democracy, or die ;六四25周年前夕,北京鎮壓;警衛 Tiananmen Square Anniversary Prompts Campaign of Silence




Tiananmen’s Wang Dan to Beijing: Democracy, or die

CNN PRODUCER NOTE     nealmoore told me, 'I've covered the Chinese dissident beat here in Taipei for the past several years. I reached out to Wang Dan to share his thoughts on the past, present, and future of the protests, and was surprised when he got directly back with three powerful responses. I think there's a lot to be learned from these students' sacrifice.'
- hhanks, CNN iReport producer
Tiananmen’s Wang Dan to Beijing: Democracy, or die
By Neal Moore (CNN iReport)
Twenty-five years ago, in early June 1989, as the People’s Liberation Army’s tanks began to roll and automatic weapons fire rang out, the international media, gathered in Beijing to cover a visit by Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev for a rare Sino-Soviet summit, found themselves in the midst of a different story.
The crackdown on civilian and student protestors at Tiananmen Square, also known as the June 4 Massacre, would leave hundreds, if not thousands dead. The government’s response against unarmed activists was beyond brutal, and it played out on television screens and newspaper front pages worldwide.
Twenty-five years later, on June 4, 2014, the world will pause to remember.
Wang Dan was the most visible leader of the Tiananmen Square protest. You might remember him. He was the one with the big glasses, slight build, and the bullhorn. After the massacre, Wang was No. 1 on the Chinese government’s “most wanted” student list. He was captured, and served four years in jail before going into exile – first in America, where he earned a Ph.D. in history from Harvard University, and then to Taiwan, where he has taught cross-strait history at National Chengchi University and National Tsing Hua University.
I caught up with Wang Dan via an email interview, and asked, in light of the 25th anniversary, if he could remind people of the message he was trying to deliver to the Chinese Communist Party at Tiananmen Square.
“We had two appeals,” Wang told me. “No. 1: Dialogue directly with the government, and No. 2: To modify the April 26 editorial of the People’s Daily.”
The April 26 editorial, titled “The Necessity for a Clear Stand Against Turmoil,” was broadcast on national radio and television in China, and appeared on the front page of the People’s Daily, a Beijing-based mouthpiece of the Communist Party. The editorial, penned by deputy chief of propaganda Zeng Jianhui on behalf of paramount leader Deng Xiaoping, deemed the protestors part of “a well-planned plot … to confuse the people and throw the country into turmoil.” The piece effectively changed the party’s attitude toward the protestors, based on misinformation. The students had not called on the government to step down, as alleged in Jianhui’s editorial, but for a dialogue of reform and openness first initiated by Deng in 1978.
Tiananmen Square remains a pivotal, game-changing event in the history of modern-day China. Although the students lost their bid for freedom, their argument for a voice carried weight with the rest of the world, and shaped how the world would view China, as well as themselves, in the foreseeable future.
In retrospect, 25 years later, I asked Wang what lessons he believes China, and the world, have taken away from the Tiananmen Square protest?
“The world needs to believe that from 1989, even Chinese people look forward to democratization,” he explained. “Anytime they think they have a chance, like in 1989, they will not hesitate to stand up.”
In 2011, protestors on the streets of 13 major Chinese cities did just that in the form of loosely synchronized demonstrations dubbed the “Jasmine Revolution” – the first sizeable, coordinated protests in China since Tiananmen Square. At the height of this dissent, in late February 2011, I interviewed Tiananmen Square protest leader Wu’er Kaixi – cnn.it/1p4EMfL – who told me more about the short-lived “revolution.”
“The brave Arabic people in Tunisia and Egypt and Libya – they have reminded Chinese people, shocked Chinese people, encouraged Chinese people,” Wu’er Kaixi said. “And that has a strong impact. That is one of the main reasons why the Jasmine operation took place in China. … It triggered a chain reaction. It’s coming back to China.”
And so the world watches and waits. Will China enter into a dialogue of openness suggested by Deng Xiaoping in 1978? Will it carry out “political restructuring” as promised by Wen Jiabao at the United Nations General Assembly in 2010? Or will it stay the course and straddle what some observers refer to as a Leninism-plus-Consumerism strategy?
According to Wang Dan, the choice is simple. My final question was what he would like to say to the leadership in Beijing today.
“Think about the party’s future,” Wang replied. “There will be only two choices: Democracy, or die.”


Petar Kujundzic/Reuters

幾名記者表示,警方一直在警告西方記者,未來幾天不要靠近 天安門廣場,否則將「面臨嚴重後果」。這些記者曾被面無表情的公安官員叫去開會。國際特赦組織(Amnesty International)發佈了一份名單,上面列出了中國各地近50名據該組織所說已遭逮捕、審訊或軟禁的人。
人權觀察組織(Human Rights Watch)駐香港研究員阿蓮(Maya Wang)說,「這次的應對空前嚴厲、空前激烈。」
在政治分析人士和維權人士看來,此次運動進一步說明,已就 職15個月的國家主席習近平決意在一場針對自由主義思想的意識形態鬥爭中剷除異己,許多人都認為,這場鬥爭是一場旨在鞏固權力的大規模運動的一部分。「最 近這次鎮壓行動之前,我還不清楚習近平的態度,但最近的事件表明,如果做得到的話,他願意成為一個毛澤東式的強人,」加州大學河濱分校 (University of California, Riverside)的漢學家林培瑞(Perry Link)說。
劉偉的朋友同樣感到非常苦悶,劉偉是中國西南部一名年輕的 工廠工人,從北京回到家鄉重慶之後,他於5月17日因刑事罪名被捕。據劉偉的朋友黃成城透露,劉偉的罪行似乎是在網上發佈了他在天安門廣場拍的自拍照,其 中一張照片顯示他比划了一個V字手勢,這是中國遊客普遍使用的姿勢,但也可以被視為一種煽動顛覆的狡猾方式。
過去幾年, 政府會在4月中旬的胡耀邦忌日加強控制,這位倡導改革的共產黨總書記因「資產階級」自由化傾向於1989年遭到整肅。在胡耀邦於4月15日逝世後,公眾紛紛進行悼念,悼念活動最終演變成了席捲全國的要求公正、民主、終結官員腐敗的示威活動。
但很多活動人士表示,今年,政府提前幾個月就啟動了限制舉 措。艾滋病活動人士胡佳稱,他於今年2月底遭到軟禁時,警方告訴他,今年是「極其敏感」的一年,他們必須確保萬無一失。胡佳通過電話表示,「當局想製造恐 怖氣氛,並且已經在很大程度上取得了成功。」他列舉了一些朋友,警方強迫他們在5月份「去度假」,離開北京。
但胡佳表示,這場運動非常拙劣,最終不會有效果。雖然共產 黨領導人已經將該事件從中國的歷史課本及網絡中刪除,致使年輕一代對89年6月3日至4日的事件知之甚少,但胡佳估計,士兵向手無寸鐵的民眾開火併導致數 以百計的民眾死亡的那個晚上,北京街頭足足有100萬人,還可能更多。
安思喬(Jonathan Ansfield)對本文有報道貢獻。Patric Zuo對本文有研究貢獻。傑安迪(Andrew Jacobs)是《紐約時報》駐京記者。

Tiananmen Square Anniversary Prompts Campaign of Silence

BEIJING — Even by the standards of the clampdowns that routinely mark politically sensitive dates in China, the approach this year to June 4, the anniversary of the day in 1989 when soldiers brutally ended student-led protests in Tiananmen Square, has been particularly severe.
The days preceding June 4 often mean house arrest for vocal government critics and an Internet scrubbed free of even coded references to the crackdown that dare not speak its name.

But this year, the 25th anniversary of the bloodshed that convulsed the nation and nearly sundered the Communist Party, censors and security forces have waged an aggressive “stability maintenance” campaign that has sent a chill through the ranks of Chinese legal advocates, liberal intellectuals and foreign journalists.
In recent weeks, a dozen prominent scholars and activists have been arrested, and even seemingly harmless gestures, like posting a selfie in Tiananmen Square while flashing a V for victory, have led to detentions.
The police have been warning Western journalists to stay away from the square in the coming days or “face grave consequences,” according to several reporters summoned to meetings with stone-faced public security officials. Amnesty International has compiled a list of nearly 50 people across the country that it says have been jailed, interrogated or placed under house arrest.
“They say it’s springtime in Beijing, but it feels like winter,” said Hu Jia, an AIDS activist and seasoned dissident who has been forcibly confined to his apartment for the past three months.
The growing list of those swept up by China’s expansive security apparatus includes a group of gay rights advocates gathered at a Beijing hotel, several Buddhists arrested as they were meditating in the central Chinese city of Wuhan and an ex-soldier turned artist who staged in a friend’s studio a performance piece that was inspired by the government’s efforts to impose amnesia on an entire nation.
“The response has been harsher and more intense than we’ve ever seen,” said Maya Wang, a researcher at Human Rights Watch in Hong Kong.
To political analysts and rights advocates, the campaign provides further evidence that President Xi Jinping, 15 months into the job, is determined to stamp out dissent amid an ideological assault against liberal ideas that many view as part of a wide-ranging drive to consolidate power. “Until this latest crackdown I was agnostic about Xi, but recent events suggest he would like to be a Mao-style strongman if he could,” said Perry Link, a China scholar at the University of California, Riverside.
Although the red line of permissible public discourse often shifts with the seasons and the whims of those in power, many longtime China watchers say the changes have caught even the most battle-scarred dissidents off guard.
As evidence, they point to the authorities’ forceful response to a seminar, held at a private home in early May, during which more than a dozen people met to discuss the events of 1989. In the days that followed, the participants, including relatives of those killed during the crackdown, were summoned for questioning by the police.
But unlike a similar, much larger event in 2009, five of the attendees were formally arrested. Among them: Hao Jian, a professor at the Beijing Film Academy; Xu Youyu, a philosophy scholar at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; and Pu Zhiqiang, a charismatic rights lawyer. All face charges of “creating a public disturbance.”
Since then, the police have repeatedly searched Mr. Pu’s law office and home, carting away computers, financial documents and a DVD of a documentary about the dissident artist Ai Weiwei, a former client.
In an interview, one of his lawyers, Zhang Sizhi, described the charges as illogical. “How can you create a public disturbance while meeting in a private residence?” he asked.
Mr. Zhang and others say it seems increasingly unlikely Mr. Pu will be released after June 4, the pattern of previous anniversary-related detentions.
In building a case against him, the authorities have rounded up a number of Mr. Pu’s friends and associates, among them Vivian Wu, an independent journalist, and Xin Jiang, a news assistant with the Japanese newspaper Nikkei. Friends say they are unclear why the authorities detained Ms. Xin, although some thought it might be related to an earlier interview she conducted with Mr. Pu.
On Tuesday, two weeks after her disappearance, Ms. Xin’s husband took to social media, posting a family photo and a frantic cry for help. “It’s a mess at home,” the husband, Wang Haichun, wrote. “Please come back. I can’t bear this alone.”
The anguish is shared by friends of Liu Wei, a young factory worker from southwest China who was detained on criminal charges on May 17 after returning home to Chongqing from a visit to Beijing. According to a friend, Huang Chengcheng, Mr. Liu’s apparent crime was posting online photos of himself in Tiananmen Square, including one in which he flashed a victory sign, a common pose among Chinese tourists that can also be seen as a sly act of subversion.
Gay rights advocates have also been feeling the heat. Over the past few weeks, the authorities have canceled a number of events in Beijing, including a film screening and a panel discussion to mark International Day Against Homophobia. Earlier this month, the police raided a hotel where a group of civil society advocates had gathered for a seminar focused on the obstacles facing gay and AIDS nonprofits.
Yu Fangqiang, one of the event organizers, said the police arrived at 1:30 a.m., confiscated his cellphone and then used it to text about 30 other would-be participants, telling them the event had been canceled. Mr. Yu and eight others were then bundled off for interrogations that, for several detainees, stretched into the following evening.
Sometimes the authorities’ fears of public unrest have led to confounding measures, like the cancellation of a restaurant awards ceremony scheduled for Thursday night in the capital.
Other times their efforts were nothing if not creative.
Chen Yongmiao, a political commentator and rights activist from Beijing, said the police gave him the equivalent of $800 to leave town. “They just don’t want people from the opposition in the political center of Beijing,” Mr. Chen said by phone last week as he traveled through northwest China.
In past years, the noose would tighten in mid-April, coinciding with the anniversary of the death of Hu Yaobang, the reformist Communist Party secretary purged for his “bourgeois” liberal leanings in 1989. It was an outpouring of public mourning after his death on April 15 that coalesced into the demonstrations that swept the nation with demands for justice, democracy and an end to official corruption.
This year, however, many activists say restrictions kicked in months earlier. When they placed him under house arrest in late February, Mr. Hu, the AIDS activist, said the police told him this was an “especially sensitive” year and that they were taking no chances. “The authorities want to create an atmosphere of terror, something they’ve largely succeeded in doing,” he said by phone, listing a number of friends who had been compelled by the police to “go on holiday” and leave Beijing for May.
But Mr. Hu said he thought the campaign was ham-handed and ultimately ineffective. Although party leaders have expunged the episode from Chinese history books and the Internet, leaving a younger generation unfamiliar with the events of June 3-4, Mr. Hu estimated that a million or more people were on the streets of Beijing the night soldiers opened fire on unarmed civilians, killing hundreds, if not more.
“No matter how hard they try,” he said, “they cannot erase this experience from everyone’s memories.”
Jonathan Ansfield contributed reporting. Patrick Zuo contributed research.

賴清德︰十大質疑、自經區條例空白授權 恐淪黑箱

賴清德︰自經區條例空白授權 恐淪黑箱

2014-05-29 〔記者洪瑞琴、王榮祥/綜合報導〕國發會昨到台南市舉辦自由經濟示範區說明會,市長賴清德親自出席表達立場,他提出十大質疑,包括草案內容空洞化, 管理機關權責包山包海等,也強調地方決心爭取安平港納入自經區,但不代表需要照單全收;高雄市府昨也提出「三要一不要」主張,要金融服務、要港區再造、要 產業轉型,但不要傷害農民。
  • 自由經濟示範區台南場說明會,台南市長賴清德提出十大質疑。  (記者洪瑞琴攝) 自由經濟示範區台南場說明會,台南市長賴清德提出十大質疑。 (記者洪瑞琴攝)
  • 自由經濟示範區台南場說明會,環盟團體在開會前舉牌抗議。  (記者洪瑞琴攝) 自由經濟示範區台南場說明會,環盟團體在開會前舉牌抗議。 (記者洪瑞琴攝)


他 提出十大質疑,包括法制缺失與政策面不清晰,草案規定管理機關所列權責事項包山包海,形同「小行政院」 權責過大;條例空白授權,架空立法權,整部條例草案七十三個條文,高達卅三條均授權由行政機關以法規命令定之,雖然符合授權明確原則,但將形同立法機關自 廢武功,政策充滿不確定性,難以凝聚社會共識及落實執行。


市 府指出,中央設置「六港一空」,幾乎將台灣變成自由經濟示範島,決策變化未對外說明,是否具示範效果也令人懷疑;且高雄雖是工商大城,農業產值所佔比重不 高,但農業就業人口不在少數,農產品開放進口後的因應措施,中央主管機關迄今未有對策,對台灣農業品牌流失的憂慮也未能說明。



王健壯 2014年05月29日 05:10 



示範區是國家型政策,動用的是國家資源,但國民黨卻把它政黨化,視其為國民黨一黨所擁有的資源,並且根據國民黨的好惡,行使「懲惡賞善令」,這是邪惡版甚至暴力版的trick or treat。

而且,示範區的「六港一空一區」規畫,乃是環環相扣的整體性規畫,缺一則有損示範區功能,缺二缺三則會讓示範區不成其形。如果國民黨畫掉蘇澳港、高 雄港、安平港,自貿港區的目標要如何達成?畫掉屏東農科園區,農業加值豈不淪為口號?國民黨如果想畫掉這三港一區,何不乾脆大筆一揮畫掉示範區算了?



從簽定ECFA到設立示範區,從反對就不給分配款到不表態就剔除,可知國民黨這幾年對在野黨一以貫之是:以政治表態換取政策利益。但國民黨忘了,國 家治理不同於政治分贓,擁有資源分配權的政客可以抱著豬肉桶不放,並且依其好惡進行施捨分贓;但ECFA與示範區,攸關國家整體發展與整體利益,政策利益 所得即使不能雨露均霑各縣各市,卻也絕不能出現「利益特殊化」、「利益政黨化」的弊病,否則,豈非坐實國民黨的確是把國家治理當成政治分贓?


如果示範區的重要性,真如國民黨所形容的那般攸關台灣未來,國民黨為了化解阻礙立法的政治爭議,為什麼不能由行政院長、立法院長甚至總統出面,邀請 「六港一空一區」的縣市長,直接面對面進行立法溝通?逼他們表態,結果是助力變成阻力;邀他們參與,結果卻是阻力變成助力,孰利孰害,連笨蛋都知道該怎麼 選擇,但國民黨偏偏要反其道而行,若非愚不可及,何至於此?



全文網址: 王健壯專欄:國民黨又在幹蠢事-風傳媒 http://www.stormmediagroup.com

哈佛大學的幾個亞洲研究中心 Asia-focused institutions at Harvard University

More at Harvard University

The Fairbank Center is a unit of Harvard University’s Faculty of Arts and Sciences.  The Center works closely with other Asia-focused institutions within the University including the Asia Center, the Harvard China Fund, the Reischauer Institute of Japanese Studies, the Korea Institute, the South Asia Institute, the Harvard-Yenching Institute and the Harvard-Yenching Library. For more information about Harvard’s global involvement please visit Harvard Worldwide.

諸法皆空? 自經區環境成本全民分攤;自經區不設防 環團質疑綠色經濟落空



諸法皆空? 自經區環境成本全民分攤



對於馬政府來說,這是用來嫁接未來簽TPP、服貿協議、貨貿協議的自由貿易。詹順貴指出,WTO架構的自由貿易是國與國之間,基於某些貨物平等互惠 關稅減免,國內橫向的產業並未造成不平等關係。但自經區卻是泡製經濟特權的經濟特區,其實和WTO架構下的自由貿易沒有必然關係。

自經區內MIT  恐毀台灣農業生產

詹順貴也挑出之前農委會釋放的訊息,原草案第33條,國外農產品到自經區加工,非指只有10%可內銷,而是10%以內不需課稅,超過10%內銷才課 稅。農產品體積龐大、笨重,有儲存上的成本,除非來自離台灣很近的中國,否則不可能搭飛機來台加工。而中國農產品價格便宜,到台灣加工後掛上MIT,到國 外賣得很好,即使回銷到台灣,要負擔營業稅、營利事業所得稅也划算。

使用能源不需繳稅 加劇環境負擔

至於環境風險危害的影響,地球公民基金會董事杜文苓指出,科學園區加工出口區產業園區原本是要繳稅的,變成自經區,就享有免繳關稅、貨物稅等優惠 (第38條),包括該類產品以及下游工廠,都不須繳稅;換句話說,這些企業使用了台灣的水、電、土地等資源,生產營利卻不須繳稅給台灣。

區內總量管制不明 日月光事件恐頻傳

國內的經濟特區汙染事件頻傳,最近日月光廢水排放事件,也發生在加工生產區,這類特區內的企業;區內廢水排放、空氣汙染物審查許可,通常不是由環保 機關,而是由特區管理機關主導;自經區也依相同模式;一旦有更多的經濟特區,環保主管機關對於全國汙染的管控和查緝,力道恐怕也會減弱。

前店後廠 禁制品趴趴走

而草案第41、42條的規定,所謂的前店後廠,使得原本禁止入關的東西,可以透過自經區進入台灣;自經區又可提供區外接單工廠運輸、傳送;區內接受 了過去禁止的農產品,外來種或毒化物,流入區外的工廠,可能造成流通。第43條雖要求送到工廠加工之後,必須送回自經區,可是也無法保證未來的流向。


自經區不設防 環團質疑綠色經濟落空


科學園區變自經區?  學者籲:勿轉手徵收


自經區成特區、政府管不著  架空國土管制?

他舉1990年代經濟部「工商綜合區」為例,造成我國國土規劃體系非常大的混亂。「工商綜合區就等於是特區,建蔽率、容積率、如何使用,全由業者自 行決定,國家的國土計劃管不到。」徐世榮說,自經區也是如此。雖然經濟部說要訂管理辦法,但依據過去工商綜合區的觀察,等於是特區,政府管不著。

公用地免變更  可直接轉售



  1. 汙染環境、或勞動條件不公平創造出來的發展模式,不利於永續發展,必須將這些環境成本內部化。
  2. 對環境有害的補貼,例如過度廉價的石化原料的成本,水電都不該補貼。
  3. 獎勵友善生態、或能降低人類健康風險的創新制度;
  4. 環保規範應更加嚴謹,揭露更多環境資訊;最後,這些規定應具體連結國際公約、制度。

自經區、綠色經濟背道而馳  政府選哪邊?

本文相關條例 《自經區特別條例》第14條第1、2項
依第14條規定設置之示範區之開發,涉及非都市土地使用分區變更者,申設機關應依區域計畫法規定擬具開發計畫,檢同有關文件,向直轄市或縣(市)政府申請 並同時副知中央區域計畫主管機關。直轄市或縣(市)政府查核基本書圖文件資料後,報請中央區域計畫主管機關辦理許可審議。
依第13條規定設置之示範區,涉及非都市土地變更,屬事業同性質或具高度相容性,且未變更主要公共設施、公用設備或必要性服務設施之服務品質及未增加全區 土地使用強度者,申設機關得製作變更內容對照表送請中央區域計畫主管機關備查,不適用區域計畫法第15條之1第1項第2款及第2項之規定。


擁有高達36萬粉絲按讚的臉書粉絲專頁 「反馬英九聯盟」(下),今天凌晨忽然無預警在臉書上消失,引發網友撻伐,並立即創立同名臉書專頁(上)表達不滿。圖:翻攝自臉書
新頭殼newtalk2014.05.28 陳柔伊/綜合報導

擁有高達36萬粉絲按讚的臉書(Facebook)粉絲專頁 「反馬英九聯盟」,今(28)日凌晨忽然無預警在臉書上消失,粉絲團不見的消息很快在網路上傳開,PTT鄉民紛紛質疑,臉書上的言論已經遭到網路控管,並痛批這根本是「文字獄」。



對此狀況,PTT鄉民紛紛留言砲轟,「要開始戒嚴了」、「蔡正元粉絲頁被檢舉那麼多次怎麼沒被刪?」「搞倒一個反馬英九聯盟,還有千千萬萬個反馬英九的 心」等;也有網友因不滿「反馬英九聯盟」遭關閉,立即創立同名臉書專頁,並對外徵求編輯、板主、廣告主、分析師等,創立3小時已有近6千人按讚。

2014年5月26日 星期一

反高官自肥 澳門2萬人上街China Money Leaks Offshore 澳門賭業無懼中國反腐


  • 澳門靠觀光博弈事業稅收大增,帶來人潮卻使物價、房價飆漲,薪資調漲幅度根本追不上,民眾苦不堪言。 (彭博) 澳門靠觀光博弈事業稅收大增,帶來人潮卻使物價、房價飆漲,薪資調漲幅度根本追不上,民眾苦不堪言。 (彭博)

連7年發錢 追不上物價房價


澳門賭業無懼中國反腐 中國反腐運動似乎未能阻斷賭客們進入澳門賭場,澳門博彩業今年前四月總營收增長14%,酒店入住率達95%,且賭桌平均最低押註額在過去12個月翻了一番。

China Money Leaks Offshore



雖 然香港經濟只是剛剛從衰退中復蘇﹐但香港的住房價格今年已經上漲了約30%。而在珠江口的另一邊﹐澳門的博彩業官員們正在討論放慢當地博彩業增長的措施﹐ 此前澳門這一業務的收入連續三個月達到創紀錄水平﹐其中8月份和10月份的水平更是創出歷史新高。澳門10月份的博彩業收入為15.8億美元﹐大約是美國 內華達州博彩業同期收入的兩倍。


Getty Images
研究公司GaveKal Dragonomics最近在給客戶的報告中寫道﹐中國大量的經濟刺激支出和寬鬆的信貸環境有可能助長了資金的非法轉移。這份報告說﹐流入香港和澳門的這些“秘密資金”數額之大正讓北京略微感到難堪。


安 理國際律師事務所(Allen & Overy LLP)駐北京的律師姜穎(Jane Jiang)說﹐雖然北京會依賴銀行對離岸資金轉移進行監督﹐但卻有數不清的方式來繞開這些監督措施﹐從偽造合同到直接用手提箱將錢帶到香港﹐不一而足。 姜穎擅長辦理與中國外匯控制有關的案子。





這 部分資金很多投向了房地產。港府數據顯示﹐自從該計劃6年前實施以來﹐截至9月底﹐已有3,907名中國大陸人獲準投資移民香港﹐這給香港的房地產市場總 計帶來了13.4億美元資金。僅今年一年﹐那些成功申請到香港居民身份的中國大陸人就將4.773億美元帶入了香港房地產市場。

美聯移民 顧問有限公司(Midland Immigration Consultancy Ltd.)的行政總裁吉安(Thomas Kut)說﹐許多中國大陸人想送子女來香港上學﹐他們將這座城市看作是一扇通向外部世界的窗口。他說﹐香港與大陸很近﹐與大陸同處一個時區﹐這裡的語言容 易學習﹐移民香港的大陸人可以隨時往返香港與大陸之間。美聯移民顧問有限公司是香港最大房地產中介機構之一美聯集團的子公司。



高力國際(Colliers International)駐上海地產經紀人Hing-yin Lee說﹐雖然存在資本控制﹐但香港的投資移民政策實際上為中國大陸居民在海外購買地產提供了一條合法渠道。





其中一些資金正在進一步湧向國外。地產中介Asterisk Realty Tokyo董事總經理Yukihiko Ito說﹐過去兩年東京和橫濱公寓市場的中國大陸買家數量急劇上升﹐很多人都是通過中國大陸旅行社過來買房的。

Yukihiko Ito說﹐購房者有時候會帶著裝滿日圓的手提箱來支付價值100萬美元公寓的購房款﹐這些購房者希望能收租金﹐同時將資金放到海外。他說﹐我們是中介機構﹐因此如果他們不說﹐我們也不會問錢從哪裡來。




Jonathan Cheng

Soaring property prices in Hong Kong and booming baccarat tables in Macau offer a telling glimpse of how money is leaking out of mainland China, in defiance of Beijing's strict capital controls, and shaking up two of the country's key offshore markets.

Housing prices in Hong Kong, a city still barely recovering from recession, have risen some 30% this year. On the opposite side of the Pearl River Delta, Macau gambling officials are discussing measures to slow growth there after a trio of record-breaking months, including all-time highs in August and then October. October's revenue of US$1.58 billion is about double that of Nevada for the same period.

It is no secret who brought the party: cash-rich mainland Chinese, eager to put their money to work.

Massive stimulus spending and easy credit in China have likely added to flow of cash through under-the-table transfers, research firm GaveKal Dragonomics wrote recently in a note to clients. 'The sheer amount of 'shady money' flowing to Hong Kong and Macau is becoming slightly embarrassing for Beijing,' the note said.

Officially, China's capital-control regime regulates the amount of money flowing in and out of mainland Chinese borders, including into the Chinese special administrative regions of Hong Kong and Macau. But in practice, money flows liberally through offshore bank accounts and a number of other nonofficial channels, experts say.

Jane Jiang, a Beijing-based lawyer for Allen & Overy LLP who specializes in issues tied to China's foreign-exchange controls, says that while Beijing relies on banks to monitor offshore money transfers, there are countless ways to get around these measures, from falsifying contracts to carrying money in suitcases to Hong Kong.

Because mainland citizens are given an annual cap of US$50,000 a year that they are allowed to convert into foreign currencies for use for a variety of things such as vacations and online purchases from overseas Web sites, pooling money from family members is another easy way to get around restrictions.

Business owners with overseas operations or Hong Kong bank accounts have even easier access to foreign capital to play with, since these are beyond the control of Beijing's regulators. In short, Ms. Jiang says: 'The possibilities are infinite.'

To be sure, far more money is flowing into China than out, as global capital races to cash in on China's robust economic rebound and as many investors bet that its currency will strengthen. But there are also incentives driving money in the other direction.

Hong Kong partly encourages the inflow of Chinese money through a government immigration and investment program. Under the program Chinese nationals who already enjoy residency rights abroad can immigrate to Hong Kong after investing 6.5 million Hong Kong dollars, or about about US$839,000, in the territory.

A lot of that money goes into property. Since the program began six years ago, 3,907 'investment immigrants' from mainland China had won approval by the end of September, plunking down a total of US$1.34 billion in the city's property market, according to government data. This year alone, US$477.3 million went into Hong Kong's property market from mainland Chinese who successfully applied for local residency.

'Many mainland Chinese want to send their children to schools in Hong Kong, and they see the city as a window to the outside world,' says Thomas Kut, the chief executive of Midland Immigration Consultancy Ltd., an arm of one of Hong Kong's biggest real-estate brokers. 'Hong Kong is close, the time zones are the same, the language is easy to learn and they can travel back and forth whenever they feel like it.'

Over China's weeklong National Day holidays in early October, Mr. Kut led about 40 mainland Chinese to a new luxury condominium in the city's Fo Tan district, not far from Hong Kong's border with China.

'I'm not afraid to buy now,' said one buyer, a Guangzhou resident who identified herself only as Ms. Sheng. Ms. Sheng, an exporter, was eyeing a 2,000-square foot apartment overlooking one of Hong Kong's horse-racing tracks.

Hong Kong's investment immigrant policy effectively opens a legitimate way for Chinese residents to buy property outside the mainland despite the capital controls, says Hing-yin Lee, a Shanghai-based property broker for Colliers International.

The tidal wave of mainland Chinese money into both Hong Kong and Macau has posed a challenge for policymakers. Fears of overly rapid growth in Macau's gambling revenue have prompted mainland Chinese officials to tighten visa policies for mainland visitors traveling to the territory's casinos. In recent years, a local backlash against mainland Chinese bidding up property prices forced Macau's government to scrap its own 'investment immigrant' program.

Some Hong Kong people fear that Chinese money is pushing local property prices beyond their reach.

'Rich mainlanders are coming in, and it has a big effect. Hong Kong is so tiny, and China is so big,' says Emily Lau, a legislator who attended a rally last month protesting soaring property prices. When mainland Chinese buyers bid up luxury home prices, 'the high end affects the mid-end of the market, and it pulls the whole thing up,' says Ms. Lau, who has asked the government to investigate allegations of money laundering.

Cheng Lai-king, a 50-year-old social worker who attended the march, said the government should look into restricting home purchases in Hong Kong to only local residents. 'There's so much money flooding into Hong Kong from outside, and it's messing with our market.'

Some of that money is flowing further afield. Yukihiko Ito, managing director of property broker Asterisk Realty Tokyo, says he has seen a sharp rise in mainland Chinese buyers in the Tokyo and Yokohama condominium market over the past two years, many of them brought in by Chinese travel agencies.

The buyers, Mr. Ito says, sometimes pay for their US$1 million condos with suitcases full of yen, hoping to collect rent while socking their money away overseas. 'We are brokers, so we don't ask where the money comes from if they don't say,' Mr. Ito says.

Some experts think that Beijing may actually be countenancing the outward flows as a safety valve against rising pressure on its own currency, even if officially the government wants to keep money flowing through channels it can monitor.

The State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Beijing's principal regulator, has in recent years tested ways to let money flow more freely as it moves cautiously toward internationalizing its currency, creating release valves to prevent asset-price inflation amid currency inflows and expectations of the yuan's long-term appreciation.

In 2007, Beijing tinkered with letting Chinese invest directly in Hong Kong's stock market before the plan was scrapped. Late last month, Beijing expanded a program that allows ordinary Chinese to invest indirectly in overseas stocks through licensed domestic institutions, approving an additional $1.5 billion in the program's first such expansion in 17 months.

Jonathan Cheng