2017年10月17日 星期二

China-Japan Rivalry Deepens With Abe and Xi on Pace for More Power

China-Japan Rivalry Deepens With Abe and Xi on Pace for More PowerBy
Isabel Reynolds
2017年10月17日 上午4:00 [GMT+8]

Both leaders in position to get renewed mandates this month
Ties remain frosty even while recovering from a 40-year low
Asia’s two biggest economies both have their most powerful leaders in decades -- and neither one has much incentive to mend a relationship that has long been volatile.
Polls show Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ruling party is heading for a landslide win in an Oct. 22 election, putting him on track to become the longest-serving leader in the country’s history. Similarly, President Xi Jinping may enter his second term next week as China’s strongest leader in at least a generation.
When both men rose to power in 2012, ties were at the lowest point since the nations agreed to establish diplomatic ties in the early 1970s. Fears of a military clash swirled as ships and planes from both countries tailed one another around disputed islands known as the Senkakus in Japan and Diaoyus in China. Anti-Japanese demonstrations in China hurt trade and investment.
While Abe and Xi have managed to stabilize ties since then -- even meetingone-on-one several times -- conflicting interests make it unlikely that the next five years will bring a breakthrough in relations. The divide has been evident recently in their approach toward North Korea, with Xi’s push for talks contrasting with Abe’s call for more pressure against Kim Jong Un.
More broadly, Xi is pushing to expand China’s military and economic influence throughout Asia, while Abe wants to counter that with stronger defense capabilities and alliances.

‘Quieter Standoff’

“Abe’s quest for a more powerful Japan also stems from a strong feeling of insecurity in the face of China’s aggressiveness -- not just in and around Japan, but in East Asia,” Giulio Pugliese, a lecturer in war studies at King’s College London and co-author of a book on Sino-Japanese politics, said by email. “What we are and will be witnessing is a quieter standoff.’’
Mistrust between the two countries runs deep. In a poll published by the Genron NPO in September last year, more than 90 percent of Japanese said they had a unfavorable impression of China, and almost 77 percent of Chinese had a negative view of Japan.
Still, the two countries have grown more connected economically despite the animosity. China is Japan’s biggest trading partner, while Japan is China’s second-largest. Japan has welcomed about 5 million Chinese visitors so far this year -- more than from any other country -- and the number continues to grow.
Japan also faces the risk of being left behind as an increasingly confident China seeks a greater say in the global economic and security order. Abe saw a setback when U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew from a 12-nation Trans Pacific Partnership trade deal, while Xi has seen almost 70 countries sign up for his signature Belt and Road infrastructure initiative.

Economic Dependence

“They need each other economically,” said Jiang Yuechun, a senior research fellow with China Institute of International Studies in Beijing. “Economic cooperation acts as the ballast of this relationship, and that is the reason why the Sino-Japanese relationship can’t be burned.”
In the near term, analysts are expecting Abe and Xi to meet for the second time this year after they each secure a fresh political mandate. That could happen as early as next month at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, where they sealed their first one-on-one meeting in 2014 with an awkward handshake.
If they get together, Abe would likely press his case for a long-delayed three-way summit this year in Japan, with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and South Korean President Moon Jae-in. Xi, meanwhile, will seek to persuade Japan to join the Beijing-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.
There have been some signs of a detente.
Unlike previous years, no cabinet ministers in Abe’s party marked the Aug. 15 anniversary of the war’s end with a visit to Tokyo’s Yasukuni Shrine -- a place seen by many in China as a symbol of Japan’s past military aggression. Incursions by Chinese government vessels into what Japan sees as its territorial waters around the disputed islands -- often used as a diplomatic signal -- remained steady in August, rather than spiking as they did last year.
In a speech last month in Tokyo, Chinese Ambassador Cheng Yonghua said there was “a tendency to gradually improve the overall trend” despite complexities in the relationship. He noted that Japan and China have strengthened cooperation in trade, investment and finance after Abe recognized the importance of Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Still, comments made after a visit by Japanese dignitaries to China last month for an event marking the 45th anniversary of the normalization of ties showed that large obstacles remain. Yu Zhengsheng, the Communist Party’s No. 4 leader, said that “complex problems remained between Japan and China” and that Abe should take the initiative to fix them.
“I thought it would be a conversation about how great things were, but he was surprisingly harsh,” former foreign minister Yohei Kono, who attended the meeting, told reporters in Tokyo afterward.

Engaging China

Noriyuki Kawamura, a professor at Nagoya University of Foreign Studies, said the mood was similar when he attended an anniversary conference in China last month. The Abe administration’s public criticism of China over its actions in the South China Sea -- as well as its dispatch of military vessels to the region -- are particular stumbling blocks, he said.
Even so, some analysts see a need for Japan to engage with China to bring about a peaceful solution to regional problems like North Korea. Closer ties would also help Japan influence China as its growing strength changes the world order, according to Bonji Ohara, a former naval attache at the Japanese embassy in Beijing.
“The problem now is who will be making the international rules, with the rise of China," said Ohara, now a senior research fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation in Tokyo. “China has said clearly it’s not happy with the current rules, but there’s no discussion of how new rules can be created. We need to have that discussion, and that can’t happen without strong political ties.”
— With assistance by Keith Zhai



德國大使:網絡控制有害企業、孤立中國;新華社發英文評論:進步的中國民主令西方黯然失色; BBC記者直播談北京保安森嚴 電話即被切斷


德國駐中國大使柯慕賢(Michael Clauss)
對此,德國駐中國大使柯慕賢(Michael Clauss)發表聲明指出,"如果中國希望在國際交往中,不僅是科研與發展,也包括學術與文化領域,獲得最大的好處,那麼,通過代理服務器進入不受限制的互聯網至關重要。"

Stand News 立場新聞
中共十九大明日(18號)召開之際,新華社今日在英文官方網站發表題為《進步的中國民主令西方黯然失色》的評論,批評西方民主制度被爭吵和混亂拖垮,相比起充滿不和及對抗性的西方政治,中國政制既和諧又具合作性,絕不需要引入其他國家的失敗政黨政治制度 ...


中共十九大即將在明日(18日)在北京正式召開。BBC中國事務總編輯Carrie Gracie,今日透過電話接受BBC電台訪問,期間大談北京市內保安情況。期間電話突然斷線,她質疑是因為敏感內容而被切斷電話。


2017年10月16日 星期一



2017年10月15日 星期日

This is how Chinese authorities censor your thoughts 中國欲重塑思想政治教育,共產黨正在想方設法為自己的持續掌權作辯護

The New York Times Chinese -Traditional 紐約時報中文網
1 小時

BBC News
"You can't control the internet," is what people say.
But China says it can.

法媒頭版「中國,強國崛起」專題",官媒紛報道後發現中伏; 你是中國人,你很特別"「共產主義復辟」; "推動者中國(Antreiber China)" 拋棄柴油技術、大力發展電動車,



Fighting back against air pollution. Read more: http://wef.ch/2gXYEV4


德語媒體: 「共產主義復辟」



德語媒體: 「共產主義復辟」

(德國之聲中文網)《南德意志報》週一(9月11日)在其觀點版發表署名評論文章"推動者中國(Antreiber China)"。文章在開頭寫道,提到拋棄柴油技術、大力發展電動車,一般都會想到斯圖加特的Neckartor區(譯者註:由於空氣污染嚴重,被稱為"德國最髒的地方")或德國的綠黨,因為該黨要求德國2030年前全面實行燃油汽車禁令。
9月開學季,《世界報》週日版關注中國教育部統編義務教育三科教材於本月投入使用,發表文章"舊學派(Alte Schule)"。三科教材指的是義務教育道德與法治、語文和歷史。根據中國媒體報導,其中,語文教材古詩文數量增加、注重國家主權教育等。新編初中歷史教材注重加強國家主權意識和海洋意識教育,講述西藏、新疆、台灣及附屬島嶼釣魚島、南海諸島等作為中國領土不可分割一部分的歷史淵源。