2017年5月25日 星期四

Taiwan to allow gay marriage in first for Asia

Confirmed: Taiwan remains one of Asia’s most socially liberal societies.

Constitutional court says ban on same-sex wedlock violates right to equality
FT.COM

Vietnamese Students Are Jumping at the Chance to Study in Japan

Japan is aggressively recruiting students from the region.

Their numbers have grown more than 12-fold within six years.
BLOOMBERG.COM

英媒:中國鐵腕政策或致新疆成第二車臣

[精選回顧] 《經濟學人》社論說,中國對新疆的鐵腕政策助燃了新疆的反抗活動。中國當局必須改變其對新疆的政策和思維方式。
http://bbc.in/2rPYyDy

2017年5月24日 星期三

Big Country with an Empty Nest 大國空巢


研究顯示中國人口或已被印度超過
威斯康星大學麥迪遜分校學者易富賢表示,中國官員將中國1990年至2016年間的出生人數高估了近9000萬。
更新於2017年5月24日 13:35 英國《金融時報》 米強 北京報導


按照一位獨立的中國人口學家的說法,印度或已超過中國成為世界人口最多的國家。

威斯康星大學麥迪遜分校(University of Wisconsin-Madison)的科學家易富賢表示,中國官員將1990年至2016年間的出生人數高估了近9000萬。

易富賢將他所說的這一誤差,部分歸因於過度樂觀的生育率數字。 2015年中國生育率被估計為1.6,而易富賢認為實際上可能低達1.05。

如果易富賢的說法是正確的,去年底中國的人口就是12.9億,而政府的官方數字是13.8億。相比之下,印度官方對本國人口的估計值為13.3億。

易富賢本週在北京向學界展示了這一研究成果,它凸顯出中國政策制定者面臨的人口危機。 2012年,中國勞動年齡人口首次出現下滑,而且自那以來一直在下降,這就引出了中國“未富先老”的可能性。

易富賢向英國《金融時報》表示:“我還沒研究過印度的人口數字。但印度人口就算還沒超過中國,也很快就會超過,而且最終將比中國人口多得多。”

世行預警中國“未富先老”
世界銀行發布報告稱,到2040年中國將減少逾9000萬勞動人口,超過德國人口總和。分析人士預計,儘管中國已經放鬆了獨生子女政策,但此舉可能僅會暫時拉動人口上揚,長期效果將並不顯著。

易富賢長期以來對中國有爭議的“一胎化”政策持批評態度,這一政策從上世紀80年代初開始實施,一直到2015年才取消。

在2007年出版的《大國空巢》(Big Country with an Empty Nest)一書中,易富賢提出,中共規劃者的“馬爾薩斯式恐懼”毫無根據。

中國官員和學者如今大多都承認,一胎化政策加快了中國“劉易斯拐點”(Lewis Turning Point)的到來。這一拐點理論是1954年由經濟學家阿瑟•劉易斯(Arthur Lewis)提出的,是指一國農村剩餘勞動力耗盡、工資水平開始迅速上漲的時刻。在這個拐點到來後,中國將很難再實現過去四分之一世紀裡那種輕易就能獲得的生產率增長了。

易富賢認為,如果沒有實行一胎化政策,中國人口原本會在2040年達到16億的峰值後開始下降,從而讓這個全球第二大經濟體享受時間長得多的“人口紅利”。

多年來,中國政府很不歡迎他這種不同看法,他的書直到2013年才被解禁。不過,隨著北京的官員開始認識到一胎化政策的真正代價,他們對這位旅美學者的態度變得親切起來。

今年3月,中國政府出錢請易富賢乘坐商務艙從美國飛到海南,參加博鰲亞洲論壇(Boao Forum for Asia)。博鰲亞洲論壇是效仿達沃斯世界經濟論壇(World Economic Forum)、在華南召開的年度會議。

對於某些少數民族以及頭胎是女孩的農村家庭,一胎化政策存在例外情況,但多數中國家庭在過去只被允許生育一個孩子。兩年前,該政策被修改為允許家庭生育兩名子女。

一胎化政策往往被地方官員粗暴執行,手段包括強制流產(其中許多是晚期流產)和絕育。為躲避計生人員而逃跑的人的親屬往往會被關起來,直到他們回來。

中國最有名的異見人士之一、盲人活動人士陳光誠,曾因曝光計劃生育暴行而受到多年的法外軟禁。 2012年,在甩掉了看守並在北京的美國大使館尋求避難後,陳光誠逃到了美國。

譯者/何黎
-------
沒有索引的書
Big Country with an Empty Nest
Publisher : China Development Press
Published Date : 3/2013
Language : Chinese?
ISBN/ISSN : 9787802348561
Pages : 361
Weight : 1.10kg
Availability : Usually ship within 48 hours
Estimated Shipping Time

"Big Country with an Empty Nest" was in 2007 in Hong Kong turned out a version of a book published, received wide attention and sparked a heated debate, which laid the foundation of the "Big Country with an Empty Nest "In the history of China's position on population studies. In the population has increasingly become the focus of public attention on the occasion, "Big Country with an Empty Nest" After careful revision of the large space after the Mainland and readers met.
 
In comparison, the mainland version of the "Big Country with an Empty Nest" held on the more moderate and content leaner, more solid data, views more clearly, as the author of "empty nest big country: Rethinking Chinese family planning policy," the preface said: "From the text view, the Hong Kong version removes some 'lees', only condensed into" big empty nest: Rethinking Chinese family planning policy, "20% of the content, the new content of 80% in Hong Kong is mainly used ...... is homemade 'fowling' ...... this edition procured some 'guns' (review of the university and graduate demographics learned, and to ask a number of demographers, making way more in line with norms). "can said that this is the author's effort a masterpiece!




Table of Content
Chapter 1 History and World Population Prospects / 1
Population reproduction is the existence and development of human society, the fundamental pillars / 2
Ancient population growth is very slow / 3
Modern population explosion / 5
American crops on the demographic impact of Chinese Qing / 7
Population growth, economic growth / 9
Population explosion led to technological explosion / 11
Population size and density advantages advantages / 13
"Demographic catastrophe," the wolf really came, but not the big bad wolf / 16
World Population Prospects / 19
Chapter 2, the rise and fall of civilization demographic factors / 23
Sages talk about the relationship between population and civilization / 24
Qin unified China's demographic factors / 25
Roman Empire's population factor / 28
Demographic advantage to avoid the Roman Empire history repeat itself in China / 33
Tibetan, Mongolian civilization decline demographic factors / 34
Indian civilization decline demographic factors / 37
Why did the Industrial Revolution originated in Britain rather than France / 38
Germany launched two world wars, demographic factors / 44
The Sino-Japanese War of demographic factors / 46
"Day" thin Xishan demographic factors / 48
Russia emerging demographic factors / 50
The Soviet Union's demographic factors / 52
Russia's population policy lessons and experiences / 56
The rise of the United States population factor / 59
Chapter 3 China's family planning background / 63
Before World War II: From racism, eugenics to demography / 64
World War II: the global population control The Rise / 68
The role of the United Nations Population Fund / 71
United States, "National Security Research Memorandum No. 200 '/ 74
Planned Parenthood thought Westerly Learning / 79
1950s Chinese population battle of ideas / 82
The 1970s, China began to implement a comprehensive family planning / 85
Yinchu population theory is wrong / 87
Since 1979 China began to implement the one-child policy / 94
Planned Parenthood unexpected consequences / 98
Chinese demographic Create / 100
Policy of the U.S. population / 106
Chapter 4 China's demographic realities / 111
Family Planning Commission forecasts fly you / 112
2010 China in the end how many people / 130
According to judge China's social development level fertility / 143
Fewer family planning in the end, "bounce" the number of people / 153
Chapter 5 Chinese population crisis broke / 167
1998: the number of primary school began to decrease / 168
2003: 20 to 39 years golden age of labor began to decrease / 171
2008: 17 to 20 year old man began to negative growth in manpower / 173
2012: women of childbearing age starts to decrease / 174
2012: The total dependency ratio stabilized climb / 176
2014: 15 to 64 years of negative growth in the total labor force start / 181
2015: Bachelor crisis broke / 184
2016: purchase age population began to negative growth / 188
2018: Start of negative growth in the total population / 188
Demographically see China's future economic trends / 193
A sense of security, who will raise / 197
China is neither eugenics, not excellent education / 200
Loss of independence in a rapid increase in the number of households / 208
Chapter 6 Who can assert Chinese population cap / 211
"Moderate population" theory destruction of ancient Greek civilization / 212
Who had asserted Chinese population cap / 213
If the Chinese population of 700 million, 500 million will happen / 216
Land and Grain / 219
Freshwater resources / 228
Mineral resources / 230
Energy / 232
Environment / 237
Conclusion / 240
Chapter 7 with an international perspective view of China Population / 241
South Korea, China Taiwan, Singapore, Iran has advocated two tires regret / 242
International and domestic programs have proved two tires is wrong / 247
Compensatory after stopping birth control how high the peak of birth / 250
Baby boomers, the higher the better compensatory / 259
"Low fertility trap" than the "middle income trap" more terrible / 265
From looking at the world economic pattern demographic / 267
World and China's population structure determines the economic center of China westward / 271
World Population change in the situation on the impact of China's national defense / 278
China should actively layout of the western population and city / 280
Chapter 8 China Population Prospects / 283
China Population Prospects / 284
China's population policy needs to Dunkirk-style strategic realignment / 292
Success of the "birth" Ready / 294
Investment, "creature", as investment "made man" / 297
Stop Planned Parenthood helps ease the employment pressure / 300
Stop Planned Parenthood helps to maintain social stability / 306
Stop Planned Parenthood help ease the crisis of aging and bachelor / 309
Baby sustainable development of China's economy - Pacemaker / 312
Chapter 9 Road to Jane. Endless / 315
"There are three unfilial, without issue," the big truth / 316
Raising children for old age pension and social comparison / 318
Marriage is man's greatest institutional design / 321
Marriage will "sex" into the cage / 325
Ancient encourage fertility policy / 328
Ancient marriage, divorce system / 332
Respect for the natural division of labor between men and women / 336
China Cultural Decline fertility / 339
The return of American traditional fertility culture / 345
Europe and the United States to encourage fertility dilemma / 348
Back to the defense of the traditional family inside / 351
Implement the Government's responsibility to protect the reproductive rights / 353
Postscript / 360
---
研究显示中国人口或已被印度超过
威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校学者易富贤表示,中国官员将中国1990年至2016年间的出生人数高估了近9000万。
更新于2017年5月24日 13:35 英国《金融时报》 米强 北京报道


按照一位独立的中国人口学家的说法,印度或已超过中国成为世界人口最多的国家。

威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校(University of Wisconsin-Madison)的科学家易富贤表示,中国官员将1990年至2016年间的出生人数高估了近9000万。

易富贤将他所说的这一误差,部分归因于过度乐观的生育率数字。2015年中国生育率被估计为1.6,而易富贤认为实际上可能低达1.05。

如果易富贤的说法是正确的,去年底中国的人口就是12.9亿,而政府的官方数字是13.8亿。相比之下,印度官方对本国人口的估计值为13.3亿。

易富贤本周在北京向学界展示了这一研究成果,它凸显出中国政策制定者面临的人口危机。2012年,中国劳动年龄人口首次出现下滑,而且自那以来一直在下降,这就引出了中国“未富先老”的可能性。




易富贤向英国《金融时报》表示:“我还没研究过印度的人口数字。但印度人口就算还没超过中国,也很快就会超过,而且最终将比中国人口多得多。”

世行預警中國“未富先老”世界銀行發布報告稱,到2040年中國將減少逾9000萬勞動人口,超過德國人口總和。分析人士預計,儘管中國已經放鬆了獨生子女政策,但此舉可能僅會暫時拉動人口上揚,長期效果將並不顯著。

易富贤长期以来对中国有争议的“一胎化”政策持批评态度,这一政策从上世纪80年代初开始实施,一直到2015年才取消。

在2007年出版的《大国空巢》(Big Country with an Empty Nest)一书中,易富贤提出,中共规划者的“马尔萨斯式恐惧”毫无根据。

中国官员和学者如今大多都承认,一胎化政策加快了中国“刘易斯拐点”(Lewis Turning Point)的到来。这一拐点理论是1954年由经济学家阿瑟•刘易斯(Arthur Lewis)提出的,是指一国农村剩余劳动力耗尽、工资水平开始迅速上涨的时刻。在这个拐点到来后,中国将很难再实现过去四分之一世纪里那种轻易就能获得的生产率增长了。

易富贤认为,如果没有实行一胎化政策,中国人口原本会在2040年达到16亿的峰值后开始下降,从而让这个全球第二大经济体享受时间长得多的“人口红利”。

多年来,中国政府很不欢迎他这种不同看法,他的书直到2013年才被解禁。不过,随着北京的官员开始认识到一胎化政策的真正代价,他们对这位旅美学者的态度变得亲切起来。

今年3月,中国政府出钱请易富贤乘坐商务舱从美国飞到海南,参加博鳌亚洲论坛(Boao Forum for Asia)。博鳌亚洲论坛是效仿达沃斯世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)、在华南召开的年度会议。

对于某些少数民族以及头胎是女孩的农村家庭,一胎化政策存在例外情况,但多数中国家庭在过去只被允许生育一个孩子。两年前,该政策被修改为允许家庭生育两名子女。

一胎化政策往往被地方官员粗暴执行,手段包括强制流产(其中许多是晚期流产)和绝育。为躲避计生人员而逃跑的人的亲属往往会被关起来,直到他们回来。

中国最有名的异见人士之一、盲人活动人士陈光诚,曾因曝光计划生育暴行而受到多年的法外软禁。2012年,在甩掉了看守并在北京的美国大使馆寻求避难后,陈光诚逃到了美国。

译者/何黎

台湾法院作出裁决:“反对同婚”违宪 ...... 菲律賓民答那峨島全島戒嚴,......Taiwan step closer to being first in Asia for same-sex marriage


菲律賓南部23日爆發政府軍與伊斯蘭武裝分子槍…
STORM.MG|作者:風傳媒

2017年5月23日 星期二

Moody's downgrades China, Asia's Central Banks Still Have the X-Factor. India's book sales are booming.



Bloomberg Asia





Moody's Investors Services downgraded China's long-term local and foreign currency issuer ratings on Wednesday, citing expectations that the financial strength of the world's second-biggest economy would erode in the coming years.



Surprise!

The region's monetary guardians retain a high degree of unpredictability
BLOOMBERG.COM

2017年5月20日 星期六

Malaysia’s system of racial preferences should be scrapped Its benefits are debatable and its costs calamitous

Since 1971 Malaysia has given preferential treatment in everything from education to investing to bumiputeras—people of indigenous descent, who are two-thirds of the population but poorer than their ethnic-Chinese and -Indian compatriots
Its benefits are debatable and its costs calamitous
ECONOMIST.COM