2012年4月28日 星期六

a deep flaw in China’s model of growth

China’s Achilles heel

A comparison with America reveals a deep flaw in China’s model of growth

LIKE the hero of “The Iliad”, China can seem invincible. In 2010 it overtook America in terms of manufactured output, energy use and car sales. Its military spending has been growing in nominal terms by an average of 16% each year for the past 20 years. According to the IMF, China will overtake America as the world’s largest economy (at purchasing-power parity) in 2017. But when Thetis, Achilles’s mother, dipped her baby in the river Styx to give him the gift of invulnerability, she had to hold him somewhere. Alongside the other many problems it faces, China too has its deadly point of unseen weakness: demography.

Over the past 30 years, China’s total fertility rate—the number of children a woman can expect to have during her lifetime—has fallen from 2.6, well above the rate needed to hold a population steady, to 1.56, well below that rate (see table). Because very low fertility can become self-reinforcing, with children of one-child families wanting only one child themselves, China now probably faces a long period of ultra-low fertility, regardless of what happens to its one-child policy.

The government has made small adjustments to the policy (notably by allowing an only child who is married to another only child to have more than one child) and may adapt it further. But for now it is firmly in place, and very low fertility rates still prevail, especially in the richest parts of the country. Shanghai reported fertility of just 0.6 in 2010—probably the lowest level anywhere in the world. According to the UN’s population division, the nationwide fertility rate will continue to decline, reaching 1.51 in 2015-20. In contrast, America’s fertility rate is 2.08 and rising.

The difference between 1.56 and 2.08 does not sound large. But over the long term it has a huge impact on society. Between now and 2050 China’s population will fall slightly, from 1.34 billion in 2010 to just under 1.3 billion in 2050. This assumes that fertility starts to recover. If it stays low, the population will dip below 1 billion by 2060. In contrast, America’s population is set to rise by 30% in the next 40 years. China will hit its peak population in 2026. No one knows when America will hit its population peak.

The differences between the two countries are even more striking if you look at their average ages. In 1980 China’s median (the age at which half the population is younger, half older) was 22. That is characteristic of a young developing country. It is now 34.5, more like a rich country and not very different from America’s, which is 37. But China is ageing at an unprecedented pace. Because fewer children are being born as larger generations of adults are getting older, its median age will rise to 49 by 2050, nearly nine years more than America at that point. Some cities will be older still. The Shanghai Population and Family Planning Committee says that more than a third of the city’s population will be over 60 by 2020.
This trend will have profound financial and social consequences. Most obviously, it means China will have a bulge of pensioners before it has developed the means of looking after them. Unlike the rest of the developed world, China will grow old before it gets rich. Currently, 8.2% of China’s total population is over 65. The equivalent figure in America is 13%. By 2050, China’s share will be 26%, higher than in America.

In the traditional Chinese family, children, especially sons, look after their parents (though this is now changing—see story on next page). But rapid ageing also means China faces what is called the “4-2-1 phenomenon”: each only child is responsible for two parents and four grandparents. Even with high savings rates, it seems unlikely that the younger generation will be able or willing to afford such a burden. So most elderly Chinese will be obliged to rely heavily on social-security pensions.

China set up a national pensions fund in 2000, but only about 365m people have a formal pension. And the system is in crisis. The country’s unfunded pension liability is roughly 150% of GDP. Almost half the (separate) pension funds run by provinces are in the red, and local governments have sometimes reneged on payments.

But that is only part of a wider problem. Between 2010 and 2050 China’s workforce will shrink as a share of the population by 11 percentage points, from 72% to 61%—a huge contraction, even allowing for the fact that the workforce share is exceptionally large now. That means China’s old-age dependency ratio (which compares the number of people over 65 with those aged 15 to 64) will soar. At the moment the ratio is 11—roughly half America’s level of 20. But by 2050, China’s old-age ratio will have risen fourfold to 42, surpassing America’s. Even more strikingly, by 2050, the number of people coming towards the end of their working lives (ie, those in their 50s) will have risen by more than 10%. The number of those just setting out (those in their early 20s, who are usually the best educated and most productive members of society) will have halved.

Help wanted
The shift spells the end of China as the world’s factory. The apparently endless stream of cheap labour is starting to run dry. Despite pools of underemployed country-dwellers, China already faces shortages of manual workers. As the workforce starts to shrink after 2013, these problems will worsen. Sarah Harper of the Oxford Institute of Population Ageing points out that China has mapped out the age structure of its jobs, and knows for each occupation when the skills shortage will hit. It is likely to try to offset the impact by looking for workers abroad. Manpower, a business-recruitment firm, says that by 2030 China will be importing workers from outside, rather than exporting them.

Large-scale immigration poses problems of its own. America is one of the rare examples of a country that has managed to use mass immigration to build a skilled labour force. But America is an open, multi-ethnic society with a long history of immigration and strong legal and political institutions. China has none of these features.

In the absence of predictable institutions, all areas of Chinese society have relied on guanxi, the web of connections that often has extended family relations at the centre. But what happens when there are fewer extended families? One result could be a move towards a more predictable legal system and (possibly) a more open political culture. And, as shifts in China’s economy lead to lower growth, Chinese leaders will have to make difficult spending choices; they will have to decide whether to buy “guns or walking sticks”.

China is not unique in facing these problems. All rich countries have rising pension costs. And China has some advantages in dealing with them, notably low tax rates (giving room for future increases) and low public expectations of welfare. Still, China is also unusual in two respects. It is much poorer than other ageing countries, and its demographic transition has been much more abrupt. It seems highly unlikely that China will be able to grow its way economically out of its population problems. Instead, those problems will weigh down its growth rate—to say nothing of the immense social challenges they will bring. China’s Achilles heel will not be fatal. But it will hobble the hero.

2012年4月22日 星期日

Suu Kyi MPs in Burma parliament 'boycott' 博訊新聞網

Myanmar pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi leaves her office after a meeting, in front of the National League for Democracy Party head office in Yangon April 21, 2012 Suu Kyi MPs in Burma parliament 'boycott'
Pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi's party will not attend Monday's re-opening of parliament in a row over the oath MPs should swear.

Bo Xilai, photographed in March 2012 at the National People's Congress in Beijing
A hacking attack cripples US-based Chinese-language website Boxun for several hours, its manager says, after reports on the Bo Xilai scandal.



[编辑] 參考文獻

[编辑] 外部連結

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Boxun.com (simplified Chinese: 博讯新闻网; traditional Chinese: 博訊新聞網; pinyin: Bóxùn xīnwén wǎng) is an overseas Chinese community website created by Meicun "Watson" Meng, who studied in the United States after working for two multinational companies in China. Boxun covers international political news and human rights abuses in the People's Republic of China, among other topics. Boxun allows anyone to submit news to the website, which results in a large number of articles remaining anonymous. Editors attempt to confirm and verify the articles, with pictures and videos published for evidence.
Boxun is an alternative source of news from China. Readers include NGOs and government organizations seeking information about China. The website has a literature section as well, devoted to short stories, essays, and political commentaries written by people in China and overseas.
Boxun is the first known Chinese website in the model of citizen journalism. It may also be the first Chinese blog, having started in 2001.
In February and March 2011, the site is blocked in mainland China[1][2] following calls for a Jasmine Revolution in China.
The Boxun servers are run from an office in North Carolina since 2000.[3]
Meng's tax-exempt[4] organization, China Free Press, is registered to the same North Carolina address as the Boxun website. From 2005 to 2009, the organization received grants totaling $513,366 from the National Endowment for Democracy, a U.S. non-profit organization founded in 1983 to promote U.S.-friendly democracy and funded primarily through an annual allocation from the U.S. Congress.[5] While the organization says it is independently run and audited, critics, including German leftist magazine konkret, have suggested that it is simply a tool of U.S. foreign policy.[6]

2012年4月20日 星期五

林毅夫案 每個叛國者都是個案 必須有法律制裁/ 反AIT等 美牛薄瑞光 等干政/ complain of interference

 當年彭先生逃出台灣 數周內 監視他的人員都還報"環島旅遊之帳"
 Fireproof Moth:「撲火飛蛾:一個美國傳教士親歷的台灣白色恐怖」

林毅夫案類似   故意發慰問金給林的家屬以掩飾他的投共林毅夫 反AIT等 美牛薄瑞光 等干政/ complain of interference   
  • 為什麼記林毅夫 他比那些軍校校長叛國更有種 可見國防部丟臉 欺善怕惡 此事似乎只等林被派任"台灣省長"才可能

反AIT等 美牛薄瑞光 等干政/ complain of interference


馬政府放任這些軍人 以後也會受到法律的審判
Outcry over Taiwan ex-general China comment
TAIPEI — A retired Taiwanese general came under fire on Friday after he allegedly claimed that Taiwanese and Chinese armies are both "striving for unification" during a recent trip to China. Hsia Ying-chou, ex-vice chief of Taiwan's air force general ...

綠:叛國 取消退休俸 藍:個案

  • 2012-02-11 01:12
  • 中國時報
  • 【鄭閔聲、管婺媛、呂昭隆/台北報導】

針對大陸方面常以「黃埔同學會」名義邀請國軍退將前往訪問,陳鎮湘強調,大陸真有幾個「黃埔人」?全都是假的。他對黃埔人的定義是,「凡 是認同中華民國憲法、支持中華民國的,不管哪個軍校畢業,他就是黃埔人,否則就算是陸軍官校畢業也不算。」唯有如此,才能分清楚敵我。

2012年4月17日 星期二

中國運動員“戒肉” "空巢" / 懶得罵馬英九種種倒行逆施 非洲度假有成 拍手

近幾月 馬英九政府種種倒行逆施
真是令人髮指  可能包圍總統府都沒用

那就歡迎非洲度假有成的專機回國  拍手

新聞報導奧運倒計時 中國運動員“戒肉”
此次倫敦奧運會由倫敦奧運委員會主辦,7月27日至8月12日之間舉行,目前主辦方已售出600萬張門票。根據德新社報導,5月中旬奧運聖火將在希臘點燃,5月18日聖火抵達英國後將展開為期70天的火炬傳遞。 7月10日,由8000火炬手負責傳遞的聖火將經過溫莎城堡,英國女王伊麗莎白二世將在場觀看。此次出任英國奧運代表隊大使的威廉王子夫婦和哈利王子預定在7月26日於白金漢宮迎接奧運火炬。
中國屢次出現食品安全醜聞,雖然瘦肉精在中國遭到禁止,但豬肉添加瘦肉精的事件仍層出不窮。被稱為克倫特羅(Clenbuterol)的瘦肉精能促進動物的肌肉生長,並減少脂肪含量;運動員使用克倫特羅可以增強運動表現。世界反興奮劑組織(World Anti-Doping Agency)將其列為禁藥。過去,北京奧運會的柔道冠軍佟文和奧運冠軍舉重選手廖輝都曾因瘦肉精被禁賽。
綜合報導: 張筠青
責編: 葉宣

2012年4月12日 星期四

台灣 我ㄟ故鄉: 就是愛台灣/安啦 台灣幸福指數退步16名!

退步16名! 台灣幸福指數大退步


我就是愛台灣 I Love Taiwan!!

2010台灣最棒 票選我愛台灣10大理由



吃最是幸福 雞排超讚

上 月初拿下美國最大的國際服裝設計賽「前衛時裝獎」、在領獎時高喊「我來自台灣」的古又文,提供的愛台灣理由僅有簡單3句話「我生在這、長在這,這是我的故 鄉。」卻喚起大家內心深處愛台灣的熱情,得到377票獲得最多共鳴。古又文說,在台灣生活了30年,雖然曾對台灣產業界失望,逼得他出去闖蕩,但體內設計 的成長養分全是台灣這塊土地所給予,對台灣一定會有信心,儘管未來一年須回英國完成學業,最後仍會回台開創事業。


台式人情味 別無分號

台 灣的人情味、自由、民主,更讓許多人自豪。四川地震時徒步求援的台灣導遊「小胖」陳健欽因人情味而愛台灣,獲《蘋果》讀者票選為愛台灣理由第3名。陳健欽 說,川震時帶彰化溪州鄉民歷劫歸來,後來去溪州拜訪,廟宇住持立刻全村廣播:「小胖來了!小胖來了!」他說:「不認識的鄉民爭相要我到家裡吃飯,跑過全世 界找不到的人情味和感動,只有台灣有。」
台 灣藝術大學應用媒體藝術研究所副教授賴祥蔚分析,「生在這、長在這」而愛台灣很理所當然,他原本就認為這個選項會拿高票。聽到這是古又文提出的,他直呼 「很有意義」,「告訴我們即使是在外地打拼,也能以身為台灣人為榮。」他說,這項調查凸顯了台灣的光明面,讓大家走出過去一年的陰霾,積極樂觀邁向未來。

第1名 台灣 我ㄟ故鄉 377票


2012年4月8日 星期日

中市南屯天主堂教友抗議重劃'Housing is a Human right', Taiwan a dead fish at high-seas

Manish Swarup—AP
March 26, 2012. A Tibetan exile, identified as Jampa Yeshi, runs engulfed in flames after self-immolating during a demonstration in New Delhi.
Carl de Souza—AFP / Getty Images
March 24, 2012. Members of Amnesty International carry a hot air balloon with text that reads 'Housing is a Human right' through the Kibera slum in Nairobi.

Read more: http://lightbox.time.com/2012/03/30/pictures-of-the-week-march-23-march-30/#ixzz1qed853uF

中市南屯天主堂納重劃 教友抗議
南屯天主堂教友認為永春自辦重劃會以灌水人頭,奪走土地,自辦重劃違法,要求土地正義。 (記者詹朝陽攝)

憂課輔教室不保 盼原地保留
質疑文林苑翻版 重劃會反駁
千餘坪土地 重劃後恐剩一半


Taiwan a dead fish at high-seas meet: Greenpeace

By Lee I-chia  /  Staff reporter, with CNA
The Taiwanese government failed to push for sustainable fishing at the recently concluded Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commissions’ meeting, the local branch of Greenpeace East Asia said yesterday.
As one of the world’s major fishing powers, Taiwan did not exercise as much influence as it should have to block new measures that could destroy fish populations, the group said.
According to Greenpeace, instead of stepping up efforts to protect marine life, the meeting, which was held in Guam from Monday to Friday last week, unraveled existing measures to preserve the region’s fisheries resources by reopening certain high-seas fishing grounds to destructive fishing methods.
Although Taiwan voted against the initiative, which was mainly pushed through by South Korea and the US, its reluctance to come up with a rescue plan showed its weakness on the issue, Greenpeace said.
Disappointed by the meeting’s decisions, Greenpeace East Asia senior ocean campaigner Kao Yu-fen (高于棻),who attended the meeting this year as an observer, said: “Due to the short-term economic considerations of a few members, the decision was a major setback in ocean conservation, sounding a death knell for fish resources in the area.”
“As the member owning the most fishing vessels in the area, Taiwan’s Fisheries Agency should take a leading role to actively guide the commission toward applying sustainable methods, instead of passively waiting for the decisions,” she said.
Greenpeace said Taiwan has more than 1,600 fishing vessels in the Western and Central Pacific, while a large proportion of Taiwan’s long-distance fish production comes from tuna.
Taiwan Greenpeace oceans campaigner Yen Ning (顏寧) said seine fishing had been banned in two high-seas pockets that were closed in 2008, while the use of fish aggregating devices was limited to less than three months per year, to allow tuna populations in the area to recover to the same level as 2004.
Reopening these areas will likely cause further fish depletion, she said.
The Fisheries Agency, which represented Taiwan at the meeting, disagreed, describing the meeting’s results as constructive.
“We don’t see it as a partial reopening of the Pacific Commons. It’s more about different methods of fishing management,” said Lin Ding-rong (S), deputy director of the agency’s Deep Sea Fisheries Division.

2012年4月6日 星期五

馬英九轉小人 台灣的FACEBOOK總統遙祭黃陵 通貨大膨脹/ 520 請上街頭抗議

Taiwan raises gasoline prices by 10 percent, stirring public uproar
Washington Post
TAIPEI, TaiwanTaiwan has ended a long-standing government fuel subsidy and raised gasoline prices by 10 percent, stirring a public uproar. The gasoline price hike, effective Monday, came two months after President Ma Ying-jeou was re-elected to his ...

520不開放凱道 台聯轟馬英九 【12:10】

〔本報訊〕在野黨發起520遊行嗆馬政府無能的活動,派人24小時輪班在台北市政府大樓前「卡位」搶凱道路權。不過,因為519及520兩天凱道將作為總 統就職大典使用,根本不開放路權申請,台聯立委許忠信今天痛批,總統馬英九不願傾聽人民的聲音,把聲音拒絕在千里之外。

媒體報導,由於519及520兩天凱道都將作為總統就職大典使用,根本不開放路權申請,這讓在市府前24小時輪班排隊的志工等於「白睡一場」。對此,許忠 信今天召開記者會指出,台聯在3月30日向台北市警察局遞件申請遊行,對方卻以擴大慶典為由,包括申請的3條路線「龍山寺到凱道」、「台大到凱道」、「頂 好商圈到凱道」,全部被北市府用行政措施加以阻撓。

許忠信說,馬英九從選舉結束後,對於民怨只會用「謝謝」兩個字回應,或「神隱」起來,但520就職還沒到,民眾已苦不堪言、怨聲載道。人民怒吼的聲音是言 論發表的自由,而人民集會遊行也是憲法保障的自由,但馬英九卻不願傾聽人民的聲音,把聲音拒絕在千里之外,520無論有沒有路權,台聯就是要上街頭。





1990年代北京依據一個中國三段論 「只有一個中國,中華人民共和國是中國唯一合法政府,台灣是中國的一部分」堅決反對一國兩區。當時國民黨強調這太不對等了,該說大陸和台灣都是中國的一部 分才公平,中共不讓步。但2000年後中國採內外有別作法:國際上堅持三段論,兩岸間同意兩岸都是中國的一部分,《反分裂法》說「兩岸尚未統一但同屬一個 中國的事實從未改變」,盤算只要主權上不對等,縱使地區上對等北京也只賺不賠。胡吳會後胡說「確認了大陸和台灣同屬一個中國這一事實」吳伯雄說「兩岸都堅 持一個中國」於是在台灣為區這個字爭議不休時,更嚴重的兩岸同屬一個國家的國共共識早輕騎過關。
讓了一國,馬想的是交換「主權互不承認治權互不否認」。胡吳會後雙方說明同意兩岸一國時根據的分別是「兩岸現行規定」和「雙方現行體制和相關規 定」。根據的法源不提有主權意涵的憲法、法律為的是符合互不承認主權的要求, 提規定、體制則是為符合不否認治權的要求。這精神進一步延伸到博鰲會。
錢復的簡歷大會手冊這樣介紹:「台灣地區(區字跑出來了─儘管吳16字箴言刻意強調兩岸以淡化兩區)新聞局長、經建會主委、民意機構及監察機構負 責人。」─中國破紀錄地主動接受台灣政府官員職稱,以表示對台灣對內治權的不否認─但限於低主權意涵的官銜,對高主權意涵的如錢復的外交部長、國民大會議 長、監察院長經歷不是略去就是改為沒有主權意涵的怪稱呼。對邱正雄也以「馬英九當局的行政機構負責人」取代行政院副院長─這都表示對台灣主權的不承認,吳 敦義、李克強互稱先生也是這意思。


最 要命的是互不承認主權邏輯上雙方交易像很公平,但在實務上則徹底不公平:中華人民共和國的主權有全世界的承認,台灣不承認中共不只毫不在乎,還可以藉以訴 求兩岸處在內戰狀態反而賺到。至於中華民國的主權中共不只不承認,還在國際上全面否定追殺,更糟的是馬還透過外交休兵承認中共作法的正當性,也等於放棄一 中各表。

calls for a boycott: 我為什麼希望台灣有二三十萬人棄買HTC的手機。要拒絕許多表態支持"92x識"的企業的產品和服務

HTC 1Q profit falls 70 percent




All the phones in China

Mar 1st 2012, 14:19 by The Economist online
China is set to reach 1 billion mobile-phone subscriptions this week
ON MARCH 3rd, China is forecast to sign up its billionth mobile subscription, having fallen just 12m short of that milestone at the end of January. India is not far behind with over 900m subscriptions, according to figures from Chetan Sharma Consulting. Together they account for more than a quarter of the world total. Fortunately the Chinese numbering system theoretically allows for 100 billion mobile numbers, and India's 10 billion, so neither is likely to run out of numbers anytime soon.

calls for a boycott:

砍到5千元以下 智能手機低價風暴來了!   LTE是比3G更猛的移動通信技術,年底將有五十多國啟用,......


台灣的商業週刊報導 中國智慧型手機市場 將大洗牌





這一次休假 我才知道原來許多年輕人幾年前買HTC的手機
主要是因為在體壇上 看似韓國給台灣許多排頭吃

HTC個案 在歐美 王雪紅可能必須下台
因為她的個人行為 已經 對htc公司造成的傷害

昨天與新竹科學園區某工程師談他做過的手機產品測試 他認為HTC的手機比不上iPHONE和Galaxy...

個別消費者當然有權決策 表達這些紅頂商人之不恥----沒關係的啦 國家和愛你的朋友會加倍補償你們啦

「只想賺錢非真挺馬」 長榮:挺92共識 2012年 01月24日 【綜合報導】昨是大年初一,副總統蕭萬長、台聯黨主席黃昆輝等多位朝野人士依例分別到翠山莊向前總統李登輝拜年,李在總統大選投票日前一天出手力挺民進黨總統候選人蔡英文,蔡卻仍然敗選,李登輝相當失望。據轉述,李昨在會見台聯人士時,重申蔡表現很好,但感嘆「台灣人還是不會做自己的主人」,更點名長榮集團總裁張榮發、宏達電董事長王雪紅兩人,只是想賺錢的生意人,「也不是真的挺馬英九,而是挺共產黨!」

綠卸任發言人 拒國貨hTC

大選輸 遷怒王雪紅 學者:不應再有激化行為

【綜合報導】 宏達電(hTC)董事長王雪紅在總統大選前夕挺九二共識,民進黨前發言人梁文傑昨在臉書說,他原來堅持使用hTC手機,「現在我寧願讓韓國人賺我的錢,至少三星的老闆不會介入台灣的選舉。」有網友因此在網路發起連署拒買hTC。這項行動立即引爆論戰,雖有人相挺,但不少網友更認為寧願買韓國貨的心態可議,「愛台灣根本是喊假的!」學者傅恆德呼籲,激情的選舉結束後社會應回歸常態,不應再有這樣激化的行為。



選後辭去民進黨發言人職務的北市議員梁文傑,昨在臉書(http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=713223789) 說:「我原來堅持使用hTC,雖然它在技術上落後三星一截,價格又比較貴,但它是台灣人的自有品牌,現在我寧願讓韓國人賺我的錢,至少三星的老闆不會介入 台灣的選舉」,「仔細觀察一下我身邊hTC的使用者,我發現有很多人是因為它是台灣品牌,雖然它的技術落後於三星,相同規格的手機更貴了一成左右,但大家 都堅持愛用國貨」,「王雪紅可以商人無祖國,那我也可以心安理得的消費者無祖國。」




梁言論惹議,民進黨發言人陳其邁昨說, 這是梁、段個人行為。民進黨團幹事長蔡煌瑯稍早指這次大選,國民黨操作九二共識,把民進黨打成反商;被詢及梁文傑言論是否坐實反商時,蔡說他不回應。梁文 傑的政治啟蒙老師林濁水說,王雪紅過度遷就北京,有人對hTC不支持,「這是人之常情。」







2012年4月5日 星期四

起來吧 中國網民 Hong Kong tycoons under arrest/再傳謠言判你死China censors microblog websites

Chinese websites 'defaced in Anonymous attack'

Defacement message Defaced pages urged Chinese people to stage their own protests

The Anonymous hacking group claims to have defaced almost 500 websites in China.
Targets hit in the mass defacement included government sites, its official agencies, trade groups and many others.
A message put on the hacked sites said the attack was carried out to protest against the Chinese government's strict control of its citizens.
It urged Chinese people to join Anonymous and stage their own protests against the regime.
Attack pattern The announcement about the defacements was made via an Anonymous China account that was established in March. A list of the 485 sites affected was put on the Pastebin website. Separate Pastebin messages posted email addresses and other personal details stolen when sites were penetrated.
Sites defaced had the same message posted to them that chided the nation's government for its repressive policies.
It read: "Dear Chinese government, you are not infallible, today websites are hacked, tomorrow it will be your vile regime that will fall."
China has one of the most comprehensive web surveillance systems in the world, known as the Great Firewall of China, that reinforces its broader social controls. The system polices where Chinese people can go online and tries to restrict what they can talk about.
On defaced pages, the Anonymous attackers also posted links to advice that could help people avoid official scrutiny of what they do and say online. Much of the advice was in English so it is unclear how much help it would be.
There has been no official confirmation of the defacements. News wires reported that government officials had denied any had taken place.
However, many of the sites listed are now offline and a few others displayed a hacked page for a long time rather than their own homepage.
The Anonymous hackers reportedly successfully attacked some sites a second time once the original defacement was cleaned up.

Hong Kong tycoons under arrest

Flying too close to the Sun?

Mar 30th 2012, 2:38 by J.M. | BEIJING and S.C. | HONG KONG

It’s a long way down from the 102nd floor of the International Commerce Centre in Hong Kong, where Analects once enjoyed a really high tea (see picture). But the dizziness you feel looking out of the window cannot compare with the vertiginous sensation the building’s owners, Sun Hung Kai Properties, must now be feeling. Their co-chairmen, Thomas Kwok Ping-kwong and Raymond Kwok Ping-luen were arrested on March 29th by Hong Kong’s Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) under the Prevention of Bribery Ordinance. So too was a former head of Hong Kong’s civil service, Rafael Hui. The arrests are widely seen as among the most sensational in the commission’s 38-year history.
The ICAC is, as usual, saying extremely little about the case, which involves one of Hong Kong’s wealthiest families. Sun Hung Kai’s buildings include the three tallest in Hong Kong. But the investigation will generate enormous media interest. The Kwok family has long been a topic of much gossip in the territory because of feuding among its members. In addition there have been growing concerns in Hong Kong about the cosiness of relations between its leaders and business tycoons. Last month the ICAC launched an investigation into the behaviour of Hong Kong’s chief executive, Donald Tsang, because of hospitality he had received from wealthy businesspeople. This is the first action ever taken by the ICAC involving someone of his paramount rank. Mr Tsang denied breaking rules but apologised for failing to live up to public expectations.
Public disquiet about the tycoons’ influence was evident during the recent competition to replace Mr Tsang, who completes his term of office at the end of June. A former civil-service chief, Henry Tang, was at one time thought to be China’s favourite for the job (an endorsement that carries enormous weight among the fewer than 1,200 members of the election committee). But public opinion turned against him, partly because of his tycoon background, forcing China to switch sides to Leung Chun-ying, a man with a more populist reputation who is regarded with some suspicion by the tycoons (see this analysis by Reuters of the political role of Hong Kong’s rich).
Online commentators in the rest of China are keenly watching the ICAC’s moves. For all the Hong Kong public’s worries about corruption, their counterparts elsewhere in the country have a good deal more to complain about. Even Chinese officials sometimes speak admiringly of the ICAC’s ability to operate without political interference and of Hong Kong officialdom’s relatively clean conduct. But the Communist Party has been reluctant to give anti-corruption institutions the same independent powers as the ICAC for fear of weakening the party’s authority and embarrassing its leaders. As we reported in Banyan this week, Bo Xilai, Chongqing’s recently deposed party chief, is alleged by party officials to have tried blocking a corruption investigation involving his family. It is widely believed, however, that the accusations being levelled against Mr Bo are themselves motivated as much if not more by political rivalry than by any wrongdoing.
At an annual meeting of anti-corruption officials on March 26th, China’s prime minister, Wen Jiabao, had little progress to point to. He said there were still frequent corruption cases “in departments that possess great power and in areas where the management of funds is centralised”. This was in spite of investigations last year into 2,524 officials at or above the rank of county leader, including seven minister-level officials (compared with 2,723 such officials investigated in 2010, including six of ministerial rank). “Corruption is the most crucial threat to the ruling party”, he said, repeating a well-worn line.
Some of China’s bolder media have dared to suggest the obvious. “If you think that China’s problem can be solved by holding a meeting and issuing a directive, you are cheating yourself and cheating others”, said a commentary in Shenzhen Evening News (here, in Chinese), a newspaper in the Chinese city that borders on Hong Kong. It said that among the many “simple” solutions would be to set up an ICAC. Shangdu.com, a web portal in the central province of Henan, published a commentary arguing much the same. It said Hong Kong’s ICAC enjoyed high public approval because it operated according to procedures over which the public had oversight. “Citizens all have the right to make those who violate the procedures, or fail to uphold them properly, pay the price”, it said (here, in Chinese). 
Hong Kong’s citizens may sometimes moan that their democratic rights are stifled, but seen from the rest of China the territory remains a paragon of the rule of law.
2012年04月01日 14:30 PM

China censors microblog websites

China has launched its toughest censorship move since the rise of social media as the ruling Communist party tries to prevent an internal power struggle weakening its grip on society.中国出台了社交媒体在该国兴起以来最严厉的审查措施。执政的中国共产党正试图避免让一场党内权力斗争削弱其对社会的控制。
Sina Corp and Tencent, the companies operating China’s most popular Twitter equivalents, temporarily barred users from commenting on other posts on Saturday morning.周六早,中国最受欢迎的“类Twitter”微博运营商——新浪(Sina Corp)和腾讯(Tencent)——开始暂时禁止用户在其他用户的帖子下发表评论。
The move followed a government announcement that six people had been detained and sixteen websites closed for spreading rumours about a military coup in Beijing, and government criticism of the microblogs for failing to stop the spread of such rumours.此举出台之前,中国政府公告称,因传播北京发生军事政变的谣言,有6人遭拘留,16家网站被关闭,中国政府还批评了微博网站未能阻止这种谣言的传播。
“Recently, many rumours and other illegal and harmful information have appeared in comments on Weibo,” said Sina and Tencent in identical statements. The two companies said the comment function would be suspended from Saturday morning to Tuesday morning to allow a “centralised clean-up”.新浪和腾讯发布了措辞相似的声明称:“最近,微博客评论跟帖中出现较多谣言等违法有害信息。”这两家企业都表示,从周六早晨到下周二早晨,将暂停微博评论功能,以便“集中清理”。
The blocking became one of the hottest topics on Weibo on Saturday. A search on Sina Weibo for ‘comments suspended’ found more than 23,000 posts.周六,此举成为微博上最热门的话题之一。在新浪微博上搜索“暂停评论”词条,可搜到逾2.3万条微博。
The blocking of the comment function hits the microblogs at their most sensitive point. The vitality especially of Sina Weibo is driven by users’ habit to pass on others’ posts and add their own views.评论功能遭禁,击中了微博最敏感的部位。新浪微博的活力主要体现在用户转发别人帖子或发表评论的习惯上。
Beijing is reluctant to completely abolish social media because it sees them as a useful channel through which people can vent frustration and a tool which allows the party to better understand public sentiment.中国政府之所以不愿完全废除社交媒体,是因为它认为,社交媒体是人们宣泄不满情绪的一个有用渠道,也是一个让党更好了解舆情的工具。


美麗多元的亞洲 紐約時報/ 緬甸人高興得街舞......



Interview: 'People were dancing on the streets,' says Myanmar election observer

In an interview with DW, Marco Bünte from the GIGA Institute for Asian Studies, one of a team of international election observers in Myanmar, speaks of the voters' hopes but warns democracy won't appear overnight.
Marco Bünte studied political science, history and English literature at Münster University. He has been a Research Fellow with the GIGA Institute of Asian Studies in Hamburg since 2003.
DW: According to an election commission announcement on state television Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) has won in 43 of the 44 constituencies in which it fielded candidates. How did people in Myanmar react to the preliminary results?
Marco Bünte: People were very happy when the first results started coming through and they heard that the NLD had won in almost all the constituencies - especially in the capital Naypyidaw. There was a great deal of enthusiasm, people were dancing on the streets and celebrating this victory for democracy.
After 22 years of resistance, Aung San Suu Kyi is entering parliament for the first time. Is a new era beginning?
Of course the results represent a great success for the NLD although they won't change the power structures that much for the time being. However, with its voice in parliament it will be able to continue the course of reform with President Thein Sein. However, whether the democratization process finally is carried out will only be clarified at the next parliamentary elections in 2015 when all the seats will be up for grabs. Only then will the NLD be able to win a majority and effectively change the power structures.
Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD will be outnumbered by the military in parliament. Can the voters' high expectations be fulfilled?
They cannot expect too much of Aung San Suu Kyi because she is only part of the parliament and not of the government. The NLD knows that it will only have a small voice in parliament. The level of democracy till now has been very low and the dictatorship has strong roots. The next few years will be about solving the problems together. This means peace talks with ethnic minorities, economic reconstruction and modernizing the political system. The changes cannot take place overnight.
Marco Bünte Marco Bünte from the GIGA Institute of Asian Studies in Hamburg is cautiously hopeful about Myanmar
Were the elections free and fair in your view?
On the day of the polls, the NLD did complain that there were problems with the voter lists. Many people were unable to vote because they were not on the list. However, these are technical details which might have been down to poor organization and weaknesses in the registration process. There was no sign of systematic election fraud. I did not witness a massive military presence or intimidation on the part of the state either. So I would say that the election - and the results show this too - were free and fair.
Apart from free and fair elections, the EU has set two further conditions for lifting sanctions - the release of political prisoners and reconciliation with ethnic minorities. Do you think the sanctions should be removed?
There are still political prisoners. The question is how many. There has to be an agreement with the government as to who is considered a political prisoner and who is locked up as a criminal. A dialogue with the government has begun. It's much more difficult with the ethnic minorities. There are many groups which are still fighting. The ceasefire talks have been very fragmentary. President Thein Sein has made a start but since it's a matter related to the division of power between the center and local governments, the process will last several years. There is an urgent need for external help. The country has been isolated for many years and it's extremely important that the West support Myanmar in its modernization process, in education, in legal matters and in many other areas.
How does the future of Myanmar look?
The country has made impressive progress. What's important is that Myanmar continues on its path of reform and that there is reconciliation between the government and the opposition. This could be the necessary breakthrough for the elections in 2015.
Interview: Gero Simone / act
Editor: Sarah Berning


Amber Fort, a hilltop redoubt outside Jaipur best reached by elephant back, is notable for interiors that feature the latest technological innovations of earlier ages and views of the Aravalli range.

India in One, Two or Three Weeks

Three insider itineraries for visiting one of the world's most compelling and confounding countries.
The view from Kiyomizu temple, one of 1,600 temples in Kyoto.

Now Is the Season for Japan

A year after last year's catastrophe, Japan is more vulnerable, and thus more wide open, than ever.
The Patuxai arch, where visitors climb five flights for a panoramic view of the city.

36 Hours in Vientiane, Laos

Vientiane, with its gilded temples and colonial villas, is quickly changing. Visit now before it is enveloped by the modern world.


Tours of Asia's Wild Side

Tiger safaris in India and bird-watching in Cambodia are just a few of the new adventure tours on offer.
In Malacca, colorful trishaws draped in garlands by the entrance of Christ Church Malacca, an Anglican place of worship that took 12 years to complete.

The Lure of History in a Malaysian City

Just two hours from Kuala Lumpur, Malacca is attracting millions of visitors with its vivid history and new hotels.


SLIDE SHOW: In Singapore, Head for the Hill, Hip Duxton Hill

Duxton Hill's tranquil, pedestrian-friendly streets make for an easy afternoon stroll among independent shops and cafes.
Lake Inle is among several areas in south or central Myanmar that welcome tourists drawn to the country's natural beauty. ABOVE A fisherman at work.

So You Want to Go to Myanmar?

A cheat sheet on everything you need to know before planning your Myanmar trip.
Tetsuji Koga's crispy kisu with vanilla-scented eggplant purée.

Restaurant Review: Hortensia, in Tokyo

The first solo venture of the well-regarded chef Tetsuji Koga specializes in a thoughtful juxtaposition of seasonal Japanese products and classical French cuisine.
Visitors on a tour boat share a meal.

Professional's Eye, Tourist's Perspective

A professional photographer plays tourist, and discovers the fun in meeting fellow travelers.
Window shopping along Hollywood Road.

Chinese Art? All Roads Lead to Hong Kong

From auctions selling $10 million plates to local museums, Hong Kong is a growing focal point for Chinese art.
In Auckland, New Zealand, a Frugal Trifecta

In Auckland, New Zealand, a Frugal Trifecta

A day and a half in Auckland yields a recently renovated art gallery, plenty of shopping and the glories of meat pies.

2012年4月1日 星期日

中國死要面子的高經濟成長的代價 中外稀土攻防 rare earths



China's Gravity-defying Economy: How Hard Will It Fall?

Published: March 28, 2012 in Knowledge@Wharton
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As China's high-octane economy shifts into lower gear, virtually everyone agrees that the double-digit, super-charged boom years are drawing to a close. Speculation over the possibility of a so-called "hard landing" for the country flourishes with each boom and bust cycle, only to die down as China's growth revs up again. This time, however, both external and internal factors -- including global conditions, domestic politics and financial trends -- are reinforcing the downturn. Many experts warn that without some painful reforms, there will be worse trouble to come.
Still, economists' opinions about just how far China's economy will fall range widely. Also, exactly what constitutes a "hard landing" for a country that has until now been viewed as an almost unstoppable economic powerhouse varies from analyst to analyst, although most point to China's growth rate as a key defining factor. "People give different definitions," notes Wharton finance professor Franklin Allen. "Mine would be growth below 5%."
China's growth slowed to 8.9% in the final quarter of last year, after months of attempts by the government to cool inflation through curbs on bank lending, interest rate hikes and stringent increases in banks' reserve requirements. The government has said all along that it expects growth to slow: In his "State of the People's Republic" address to China's legislature on March 5, Premier Wen Jiabao set the annual growth target for 2012 at 7.5% -- the first time the official benchmark has been set below the 8% level long viewed as the minimum needed to create enough jobs and ensure social stability. And in the current five-year plan, the government has set the annual growth rate at 7%.
Despite the fact that China is one of the few countries that routinely surpasses growth projections, this time reality might come closer to the government's target. Wei Yao, a Hong Kong-based economist at Societe Generale Cross Asset Research, forecasts that China's economy will grow at an 8.1% pace in 2012, slowing to 7.7% growth in 2013 and 7% in 2016. "I do not think that China will have a hard landing this year, but what will happen by 2014 really depends on what the government does in the next few years," she says. Given the many issues the country's leadership is juggling -- including the property bubble, local government debts, income gaps between rich and poor and rampant corruption -- "it will be a challenging task to avoid a hard landing."
Patrick Chovanec, a professor at Tsinghua University's School of Economics and Management, sees China heading for a "bumpy landing," with ups and downs in the next few years. The country's leaders, preoccupied with the upcoming shift to a new generation of Communist officials and distracted by the global financial crisis, have put off several tough but crucial structural reforms, he notes. These include liberalizing exchange rates and interest rates, improving the distribution of wealth, carrying out tax reforms and shifting away from the increasing dominance of state-owned industries. The worst thing China could do, Chovanec and other economists say, is to unleash another flood of stimulus to counter weaknesses in exports and investment. "That would be ... kicking the can down the road for another year, presuming they could. All it would do is set up the economy for an even bigger fall later," Chovanec notes. "China needs corrections in the property market and broader economy to refocus growth on activities that earn genuine returns. The longer you put them off, the more painful it will be."
China's handling of those challenges matters more now than ever. Political stability will hinge on overhauling the economy to ensure that growth is more sustainable and equitable, suggests a report issued in late February by the World Bank. "This is not the time just for muddling through. It is time to go ahead of events and to adapt to major changes in the world and national economies," World Bank President Robert Zoellick said during a news conference for the report's launch in Beijing. "As China's leaders know, the country's current growth model is not sustainable."
The Next Middle East?
China's transition to an era of lower growth in some ways parallels Japan's abrupt shift in the early 1990s. Both countries allowed excessively cheap, often politically influenced use of credit to create a massive bubble in their property sectors.
But there is one key difference that could lead to ugly consequences in case of a hard landing, notes Wharton management professor Marshall W. Meyer. "You still have a lot of poor people in China, many more than Japan in the 1990s. Japan was essentially middle class, with all [citizens] having medical insurance and social security. That is where the political trouble is," Meyer says. Dissatisfaction over lagging incomes and inadequate social services could spiral if the growth that has underpinned Communist Party rule were to stall: "Neither China nor the world would like to see turmoil [in China] like [what we saw last spring] in the Middle East." Indeed, in mid-March, Premier Wen noted that if the country doesn't initiate key reforms, it could experience enough social unrest to precipitate another Cultural Revolution like the one that shook the country between 1966 and 1976.
Chief among the World Bank's recommendations is a call for China to ensure that growth is more reliant on consumer demand than on the heavy investment in construction and capital equipment that has been the main source of dynamism in recent years. Even if the structural changes outlined in the report are carried out, the World Bank said growth is destined to slow from an annual average of 8.6% in 2011-2015 to 7% in 2016-2020, 5.9% in 2021-2025 and 5% in 2026-2030.
The old trick of relying on heavy government-directed investment financed by state-run banks is no longer working, notes Chovanec. "The underlying reality indicates that a big chunk of what was driving GDP growth in China" -- fixed asset investment -- "is now flat-lining." China's fixed asset investment growth fell 0.14% in December from November's total, which fell 0.4% from October. When fixed asset investment slackens, the result is a sharp decline in GDP, he adds. "Now, whether that is reflected in the official GDP numbers, I cannot say. GDP is a very political number in China."
Economists, wary of trusting the usual statistics, have racked their brains for ways to corroborate trends, citing measures such as construction equipment orders, demand for cement and electricity generation. There is no tried and true method, while distrust of China's statistics remains nearly universal. Even if they have improved from earlier decades, the temptation for padding or distortions is intense for local party bosses, whose career prospects depend on what they report to higher levels. Andy Xie, an independent Shanghai-based economist who travels extensively in China, believes that the real situation is much closer to a "hard landing" scenario than statistics show. "There is no reliable data to verify whether it is a hard landing or not," he says. "The GDP statistics are not meaningful at all.... They are not just incorrect, but way off."
Even taking the Statistics Bureau's data at face value, the signs are not encouraging. Its figures show that out of the 9.2% GDP growth for 2011, 5.0 percentage points came from increases in fixed asset investment. Fixed asset investment (FAI) grew 23.8% in 2011, down from 24.5% growth in 2010. But investment growth slowed through the year, to an 18.5% year-on-year increase in December, after 21.2% in November and 25% in October. "If everything remained constant, and FAI [this year] merely matched last year's absolute amount ... we'd be looking at 4.2% GDP growth," Chovanec notes. So far this year, fixed asset investment in the first two months rose 21.5% from the same period a year earlier, against market expectations of slower year-on-year growth for all of 2012.
The Weakest Link
Although construction also has been slowed by shortages of financing for various infrastructure projects, Pieter Bottelier, professor of China studies at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University, views the real estate sector as the weak link in the economy. The risk is not so much a residential market meltdown like those seen in the U.S. and Europe in recent years, since Chinese homeowners rely much less on borrowing than their counterparts in those markets. The greater threat is in the massive, unsustainable borrowing by property developers whose projects are unlikely to pay the originally anticipated returns due to a downturn in prices. "If we get a sudden dip, say a 10% to 20% plunge in prices in the big cities, then we will have a new situation that could become very dangerous," Bottelier says. China has more than 10,000 real estate developers who are highly leveraged and may have to default on their bank loans if prices fall far enough.
Apart from the damage to banks, which would receive state support if necessary, the spillover into the construction, construction materials and other related sectors would likewise be damaging. Construction activity accounts for about 15% of GDP and a large share of jobs for the unskilled rural workforce. "The construction industry is such a big part of the Chinese economy, it could trigger more serious problems. This could lead to a hard landing," Bottelier notes.
So far, housing prices have fallen only marginally, although there are anecdotal reports of double-digit declines for some projects in the biggest cities as well as in provincial ones. Overall, prices in China's largest 100 cities fell 0.3% in February from a month earlier -- the sixth consecutive month of decline, according to the China Real Estate Index System. Property prices in 72 cities dropped in February compared with January, while they rose in 27 cities and were flat in one city. In Xie's view, the property bubble has already burst, though the results are less dramatic than in other major economies, partly because Chinese banks are constrained by political influences and generally do not foreclose on bad loans. "Instead, you see a lot of empty buildings. China has built too many buildings," he says. 
The government holds the power, still, to open the taps and allow faster growth in the property sector if it chooses to do so, Bottelier notes, but it has to act with caution. "If [the government does this] too quickly, the bubble will return." But China's leaders are insisting that they intend to keep firm curbs in place until prices come down to more affordable, less politically risky levels.
At the same time, with the U.S. and European economies still frail, the export manufacturing sector is no longer providing the momentum it once did. China's export growth declined to 20.4% in 2011 from 31.4% in 2010, and economists are predicting from zero to 10% growth this year. Crisis-stricken Europe accounts for 20% of China's overall exports. Wharton's Allen views the risk of a hard landing as only one-in-five -- unless things in Europe blow up. "If things in the U.S. and Europe stay as they are at the moment, then [a hard landing] is much more unlikely," he says. According to the IMF, a deepening of the European debt crisis could pull China's GDP growth down to 4%.
Beijing's Balancing Act
Despite the myriad internal and external constraints confronting China's leaders, Beijing has various options for helping to shift the economy from an investment driven model to one fueled by consumer demand.
First, China needs to improve its allocation of resources to better balance the economy -- a step that only can follow reforms in interest rates and other pricing mechanisms. "China has all the wrong prices -- including exchange rates, interest rates, gasoline prices and land prices. Those prices are all controlled and managed by the government. If you have the wrong prices, you will have wrong allocations," notes Yao of Societe Generale. Mispricing of credit makes investment costs cheap for state-owned companies and local governments, encouraging excess construction and waste on projects that yield little or no returns and do not necessarily improve productivity or public services.
China's handling of its 10.7 trillion RMB in local government debts is typical of this imbalance in the economy. In early February, the central government asked Chinese banks to roll over local government debts that accrued during the massive recession-fighting stimulus binge in 2009 -- essentially sweeping them under the rug for a later reckoning. More than half of those loans are to come due over the next three years.
By far, many analysts say, the biggest shift required is a redistribution of resources that will unleash the potential spending power of the Chinese public. "China needs to rebalance the composition of its GDP more toward consumption, develop a more market-based monetary policy, reduce the excessive privileges of state-owned enterprises, ease income inequality and focus on promoting more productive and environmentally friendly industries," according to Rob Subbaraman, chief economist with Nomura International in Hong Kong. Moving toward a more market-based monetary policy, involving a more flexible exchange rate and deregulated interest rates, would push bank deposit rates higher, helping to reduce the need for saving and also improving investment options so that families do not rely so heavily on real estate to grow their nest eggs. Meanwhile, the government needs to make the politically difficult choice of reducing preferential treatment for state companies, which now includes preferential access to bank credit and government subsidies of land, labor and electric power. The aim is "to redistribute income from the corporate sector to the household sector," he says.
Subbaraman sees a one-in-three likelihood of a hard landing and believes China could resort to extra stimulus spending to avert such a worst case scenario. But without the necessary reforms, the stimulus money would just go to waste, he notes. "The key with future fiscal stimulus is to direct it more efficiently at consumption and more productive areas of investment."
Repairing the Net
Apart from the overall structure of the economy, another key reason for the Chinese obsession with scrimping and saving is the dire lack of public services and social welfare. Education, likewise, is a huge cost for most families. "Right now, taxes are too great a burden for households and the private sector, while China spends too little on social security, medical care and education. There is a lot they can do there," says Yao.
Meyer agrees. "There is room to repair the social safety net. Since there is not adequate medical care and social security in China, people feel they have to save 40% to 50% of their income. If they feel they have some safety net in their old age, they will be less prone to save." As China's population ages, it will have a growing need for services for the elderly, and spending on such areas will increase if the supply is there to meet demand, Meyer says. "You can increase consumption if customers get what they want."
In fact, Bottelier sees China's services sector as one of the most powerful potential engines for growth, and one that has not been fully realized. "Even at lower growth rates of 6% or 7%, China can maintain full employment if the contribution of the service sector to the economy expands more rapidly than the contribution of construction or manufacturing. You can get more growth in the service sector per dollar invested," Bottlier says. He views such changes as inevitable. "We have to see how China responds to this in coming years. If they postpone [these kinds of reforms] again, messy political consequences will be waiting."
Overall, the consensus among most economists is that it is time for China to bite the bullet and move ahead on politically difficult, painful reforms that could lay the foundation for sustainable growth in the future. It would not be the first time: In the 1990s, then-Premier Zhu Rongji carried out the first big overhaul of state industries, laying off millions of workers. Housing reforms helped create a commercial property sector from scratch that, despite its ups and downs, has helped establish a growing middle class. Given the strong hold of vested interests, especially at the local level, such changes are difficult but necessary for a rebalancing of the overall economy, notes Chovanec.
"My advice [to the government] is to drop this obsession with high-level GDP growth," Chovanec says. "Driving 8% to 9% GDP growth through investment may not pay off, and is not in the long-term interests of anyone in the Chinese economy. Accepting lower rates of expansion is a first step to putting China on the path toward long-term, sustainable growth."




titanium , vanadium, rare earths

US, EU and Japan say China is unfairly limiting exports of minerals used in ...
Washington Post
BRUSSELS — The United States, the European Union and Japan filed complaints Tuesday with the World Trade Organization charging that China is limiting its export of rare earths, minerals that are vital to the production of high-tech goods.
Beijing Defends Stance on Minerals
Beijing's tough defense of its rare-earths export quotas is expected to escalate trade disputes over the minerals and spur mining investments elsewhere, though China's dominance is likely to continue.