2017年1月30日 星期一

China Won’t Run From a Fight With Trump BY MICHAEL AUSLIN



ARGUMENT
China Won’t Run From a Fight With Trump

The new U.S. president says he’s ready to stand up to China in its own backyard — but Beijing won’t take that lying down.
BY MICHAEL AUSLIN
JANUARY 24, 2017









Watching warily as Donald Trump takes office, China’s leaders are contemplating the prospect of a more assertive U.S. president willing to upend decades of Sino-U.S. relations. Trump’s Asia policy represents the first major reshaping of U.S. policy toward China since the normalization of diplomatic relations in 1979, and, from Beijing’s perspective, it is currently on a worst-case trajectory, heading toward a trade war and a military standoff over China’s basic interests in Asia, including Taiwan.


The 45th president presents a potentially unique challenge for China — but not one wholly unanticipated. Already having strenuously opposed former President Barack Obama’s “pivot” to Asia, Chinese leaders likely view the shift to Trump more as one of degrees, if extreme, than in kind. The tenor of U.S.-China relations has worsened in recent years, despite the regularity of high-level diplomatic engagements and public expressions of common interests.


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What Beijing is unused to, however, is Trump’s willingness even before taking office to publicly excoriate China, link economic and security issues, and muse about ending diplomatic bedrocks such as the “One China” policy. In briefly seizing a U.S. Navy underwater drone last month in international waters near the Philippines, the Chinese were making clear that both Obama’s pivot has been ineffective and that Trump’s rhetoric does not scare them. Yet their repeated warnings to Trump that he is flirting with potential disaster indicate that they take his statements seriously and are trying to deter him from harming Chinese interests. Nobody yet knows what either side will do if Beijing fails in that attempt and a more direct confrontation becomes inevitable.


Trump’s approach, even before taking office, has been to keep China off balance. After four decades of U.S. presidents acting largely deferentially toward Beijing,


China’s leaders are undoubtedly flummoxed by Trump.

China’s leaders are undoubtedly flummoxed by Trump. His statements challenging the status quo have been paired with signals that he intends to pursue a more normal relationship. His appointment of Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad as ambassador was welcomed in Beijing, given Branstad’s past connections with Chinese President Xi Jinping and long-standing economic ties to China. The subtext of Trump’s meeting with Jack Ma, one of China’s wealthiest businessmen and founder of internet retailing giant Alibaba, was that trade and investment between the two countries are already flourishing. And Beijing saw plenty to welcome in Trump’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership — a move that gave China an edge in creating a broad, regional trade pact while relegating America at best to a series of bilateral pacts — even if it was not intended as an olive branch to China.


But Trump’s repeated assertions that he will not be bound by past precedent outweigh his conciliatory moves in Chinese eyes. As Beijing contemplates the pendulum in Asia potentially swinging back against it in coming days, the Chinese government has begun to try and stake out its ground. Xi, for example, in a widely disseminated New Year’s speech made clear that his country will protect its national interests and prevent any foreign moves to restrict its freedom of action in Asia. Unwilling to be seen as being put on the defensive, Beijing is likely to push back even harder, testing the new president and his team and trying to get them to back down.





China’s greatest fear is that Trump will encourage, if not support, moves toward Taiwan’s independence.

China’s greatest fear is that Trump will encourage, if not support, moves toward Taiwan’s independence. This potentially threatens the geopolitical integrity of the country, as it could strengthen similar movements in other separatist regions, such as Hong Kong and Xinjiang. Already on alert after Trump’s unprecedented phone call with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, Beijing warned against allowing Tsai to stop over in the United States this month during an international trip. More threateningly, the government has stated that any attempt by Trump to change the status quo over Taiwan would cross a “red line” and incur “revenge.” A meeting in the flesh between Trump and Tsai would cause the most serious crisis in U.S.-China relations since normalization in 1979.


North Korea could also become an arena where China tests the new president. Trump recently tweeted that Beijing has done nothing to help denuclearize Pyongyang while “taking out massive amounts of money [and] wealth” from the United States. Years of failed diplomacy with North Korea have dampened any hope for new talks, but Beijing could respond to Trump’s accusation by increasing economic aid to Kim Jong Un, dropping support for recent U.N. sanctions, and ending any attempt at or, in the view of some, pretense of restraining Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs. With Pyongyang about to test a new intercontinental ballistic missile that can potentially reach U.S. territory, any such Chinese assistance would alarm America’s national security establishment and also put South Korea and Japan, two of Washington’s closest allies in the region, further on edge.


In addition, Trump should expect China to target U.S. allies more aggressively. In recent weeks, China has sent bombers around Taiwan and fighter jets near Japanese and South Korean airspace, as well as very publicly sailed its sole aircraft carrier through the Taiwan Strait and past Japanese waters. This month, China reduced the number of charter flights from South Korea in response to Seoul’s decision last year to host a new American anti-ballistic missile system and is reported to be working with Russia on ways to defeat the defensive weapon. Moreover, Australia has decided against undertaking freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea, and the Philippines’s shift to China under President Rodrigo Duterte is well underway. And Beijing could further rattle Japanese nerves by increasing its military activities near the contested Senkaku Islands — also known as the Diaoyu — in the East China Sea.


Given Secretary of State nominee Rex Tillerson’s confirmation testimony directly challenging Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea, which indicated that the new administration would consider denying China access to its newly reclaimed islands, the slow boil of the past several years over China’s expansion in Pacific waters may heat up rapidly. Backing down in the face of American threats would only open Beijing up to pressure from other Asian nations. Hence, the alarming warnings of a potential “devastating confrontation.”


The toxic combination of Chinese fear and confidence makes some kind of miscalculation or accident more likely. With tensions running high, U.S. military leaders in the Pacific should prepare for even more aggressive action from Chinese naval and air forces, possibly risking a repeat of the April 2001 collision between a Chinese fighter jet and a U.S. Navy surveillance plane. Given Xi’s New Year’s vow to protect the country’s “maritime rights and interests,” the latest in a raft of similar rhetoric, it will be more difficult to contain the aftermath of any new accident. Equally, China may increase its maritime intimidation of smaller nations in the South China Sea, daring the United States to uphold its promises of freedom of navigation.


There are good reasons for China not to undertake any of the actions listed above. Trump’s statements, after all, are just that, and he may well moderate his positions now that he has taken office, as have most of his predecessors, once he gets a full picture of the implications of his possible policies. Similarly, Beijing could decide to focus on the slim olive branches held out by the new president, such as his ambassadorial pick and business meeting with Ma. In contrast, continuing to try and intimidate both the United States and its allies could backfire, resulting in a hardened attitude by the new administration and a greater willingness to challenge Chinese interests.


There is little reason to believe that Xi intends to bend his knee before Trump. His policies since taking power in late 2012 have instead served to increase China’s global engagement, its assertiveness, and its belligerence in protecting its national interests. His statements have made clear his intent to take a place on the world stage equal, if not superior, to the United States. His continuing assertion of these goals, even in the face of a domestic economic slowdown and international setbacks (such as The Hague ruling against Chinese claims in the South China Sea), reveals the importance he attaches to a strong foreign policy.


There is no question, however, that Trump has already changed the dynamic in U.S.-China relations. For years, it has been American presidents who have chosen not to antagonize Beijing or exacerbate tensions with China and Chinese leaders who have been willing to push the envelope. In boldly, and riskily, seizing the initiative even before being sworn in, Trump may have turned the tables on his Chinese counterparts. It may now be China’s leaders who tread more cautiously.


Photo credit: SPENCER PLATT/Getty Images

南海波濤洶湧—《泰晤士報》外交版編輯 Roger Boyes —觀念座標

※ 2017.01.27 觀點—《泰晤士報》外交版編輯 Roger Boyes ※
南海波濤洶湧
小布希總統進入白宮沒多久,他就看了凱文‧科斯納的電影《十三天》,這部電影的故事是古巴導彈危機。對布希來說,那是學習如何利用海軍力量擊敗野心勃勃蘇聯強權的機會。
美國第四十五任總統,唐納德‧川普,已經更進一步:他的政府就任還不到一週,就已暗示可以在北京的南海人工島外圍,築成海軍封鎖線。這個威脅,首先由國務卿提名人,雷克斯‧提勒森(Rex Tillerson),在參議院確認聽證會上提出,之後又在本週再度重覆——這是一個很明確的舉動——美國等於是通知中國,中國積極擴張領土的作法,美國都會抵抗;在外交上,中國想要拉攏美國傳統的盟友,如菲律賓,美國也會主動挑戰。
中國的反應是立即的,也是節制的,它警告川普政府「謹言慎行」。中國官媒措詞強硬地談到,美國封鎖線可能會引發全面戰爭。中國真的願意效仿古巴,跟美國全面衝突嗎?它肯定不會。中國國家主席習近平日前在達沃斯經濟論壇上,還說他絕對跟川普相反,因為中國珍惜自由貿易,重視全球合作,和平與陽光。他是個民族主義者,他正在擴大中國的影響力,建設中國的軍隊——但他不會跟軍事機器更優秀的國家進行全面的衝突。
很有可能是這樣:美國各大情報機構都有同樣的結論,而川普先生也讀了他們的簡報。他的結論是:要成功阻止中國擴張,只有在中國每一次違反國際法的時候挑戰它。在珊瑚礁上建造人工島,又在這些人工島上安裝高射炮、反導彈武器,已經違反了航海自由的國際法。中國想要否定美國友邦——如日本或台灣——的航行空間;中國此舉也在恫嚇此區的其他國家,擴展其領海主張。
對川普的顧問們——特別是美國全國的貿易會議主席,彼得‧納瓦羅(Peter Navarro)來說——美國與中國已經走上衝突的道路,而且不止在南海而已。從川普的顧問們看來,中國似乎想變成第一等的海軍強權,擠壓其他貿易夥伴的空間,直接挑戰美國的全球領導地位。納瓦羅先生以一本書、紀錄片《中國導致的死亡》(Death by China)而引起川普先生的注意,他在書裡面主張:美國進口血汗工廠的中國製品,等於是在關閉美國的工廠。
他的一些說法也許太過誇大,但中國不能說沒有得到警告。川普接聽台灣總統的電話、對於北京一中政策的質疑,都使得美中對決無可避免。這是北京反省它把南海小島軍事化的時刻,也是它考慮移除導彈的時刻。但北京顯然自信滿滿,認為川普總統會變成一位孤立的人物,於是它就可以安然度過此一風暴。北京錯過了良機,現在南海的海象看起來特別凶險了!

2017年1月29日 星期日

Most people with mental disorders in China never receive treatment

On January 20th a woman with a psychiatric condition was found locked in a cage in a wood in Guizhou. She had been put in it by her brother, who claimed the local government knew about her case

China’s shame. Sufferers are routinely treated as a danger to society
ECONOMIST.COM

2017年1月28日 星期六

one of Australia’s most iconic animals: the dingo澳洲野犬


澳洲野犬
Dingo walking.jpg
保護狀況
科學分類e
界:動物界 Animalia
門:脊索動物門 Chordata
綱:哺乳綱 Mammalia
目:食肉目 Carnivora
科:犬科 Canidae
屬:犬屬 Canis
種: C. lupus
亞種:澳洲野犬 C. l. dingo
三名法
Canis lupus dingo
Meyer, 1793
Dingo-map-2.png
異名
Canis familiaris dingo Meyer, 1793



Unlike their European successors, these earlier settlers were assimilated by the locals. And they brought with them one of Australia’s most iconic animals: the dingo

Prehistoric migration: An Antipodean Raj
ECONOMIST.COM

2017年1月26日 星期四

作者訪談:(Julian Gewirtz)的《不可能的合作夥伴:中國的改革者、西方的經濟學家和全球化中國的形成》

哈佛大學出版社本月出版了朱利安·格維茨(Julian Gewirtz)的《不可能的合作夥伴:中國的改革者、西方的經濟學家和全球化中國的形成》(Unlikely Partners: Chinese Reformers, Western Economists, and the Making of Global China),




當然,除此文,故事還很多的....."學者格維茨著書,回溯西方經濟學家對中國改革開放產生的鮮為人知的影響。他指出,習近平治下中國愈發封閉,可能付出高昂代價。"
學者格維茨著書,回溯西方經濟學家對中國改革開放產生的鮮為人知的影響。他指出,習近平治下中國愈發封閉,可能付出高昂代價;美國在開放和互聯的承諾上也面臨挑戰。
CN.NYTIMES.COM

......你曾經指出,在習近平領導下,中國政府和共產黨宣傳對西方觀念和價值觀的抵制。從你所研究的歷史出發,應該如何看待這件事?
習近平的政權採取了讓人極為不安的措施,把學術、媒體、職業領域和社會許多方面封閉了起來。歷史經驗告訴我們,採取這些政策的代價可能會很高。在過去的40年裡,美國和中國之間的交流不只是在經濟商品和服務領域,也體現在經濟觀念上。對來自世界各地的新觀念所持的開放態度,給中國追求更大財富和權力的努力帶來了極大的益處。
沒有這種開放,中國將錯失鄧小平和他那個年代的改革者認為對中國的成功至關重要的交流。最糟糕的是,它會加劇中國內部在思想和政策制定上的寒蟬效應,會在急需實驗和創新的時候對它們形成阻力。
習近平最近在達佛斯論壇上的講話將中國描繪成一個新的「開放」與「全球化」捍衛者。但實際上,中國領導層沒有在鼓勵中國人對外國觀念持開放態度。中國的經濟對國外投資的開放程度仍然遠遠低於美國和其他許多國家。
另一方面,我們看到唐納德·J·川普和他提名的人,尤其是首席貿易顧問彼得·納瓦羅(Peter Navarro)對中國發出了嚴厲的指責。在這方面,歷史上有沒有什麼經驗可以借鑒?
近代歷史顯然證明,早該採取更強硬措施,以糾正經濟不平衡,尤其是美國企業經歷的無法進入中國市場許多領域的情況。但最糟糕的情況是採取一系列極端的措施,演變成一場對彼此都具有災難性的貿易戰。美國應該試圖糾正中國的不公平貿易行為和破壞穩定的安全挑釁,同時投放力量,維護它在亞太地區的利益和價值觀,但不是以一種將中國妖魔化或破壞兩國重要合作的方式。
即便在川普退出跨太平洋夥伴關係(Trans-Pacific Partnership)後,美國也應該試圖在亞洲地區經濟中發揮自己的作用,但不是本著將中國排除在外的目的。幾乎所有重要的全球問題,都需要美國與中國協作才能解決,我們兩國的繁榮依然休戚相關,儘管川普總統的圈子裡有人持不同看法。
支撐美中關係的一個基本假設一直是,開放和互聯一般會帶來穩定與繁榮。川普政府似乎在從根本上挑戰這一點。在討論中國日益收緊的環境時,我覺得如果不承認美國在開放和互聯的承諾上也面臨前所未有的挑戰,將是個錯誤。所以我們在向全世界宣傳這些價值觀的同時,也必須在國內為它們辯護。

“The Most Beautiful Village in the World”. Toutiao ...Vietnam, India, ...Trump



http://www.japantimes.co.jp/culture/2017/01/26/films/bon-ishikawa-discovers-strength-community-documentary-nepal-earthquake/#.WIriPFV97IV


Bon Ishikawa discovers the strength of community in documentary on Nepal earthquake

BY 

During one scene in Bon Ishikawa’s upcoming documentary “Sekai de Ichiban Utsukushii Mura” (“The Most Beautiful Village in the World”), the photographer-turned-filmmaker uses a drone to capture one of Asia’s oldest traditions: the collecting ...





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It's on to Plan B.


The nation could have benefited the most from the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
BLOOMBERG.COM

India's IT sector worried about Trump's protectionist rhetoric

Questions are being raised whether US President Donald Trump will impact
India's flourishing IT industry, which is hoping for a smooth transition in
outsourcing and movement of skilled workers. Murali Krishnan reports.

The Philippines' growth last year was faster than China's.

 Bloomberg Asia 都分享了 1 條連結

The Philippines' growth last year was faster than China's.
It's finally catching up with its fellow Asian tiger economies.

The World Bank forecasts expansion of more than 6% for eight years until…
BLOOMBERG.COM

2017年1月23日 星期一

中國嚴管VPN 打擊“翻牆”還是內部洗牌?


......據中國互聯網絡信息中心的最新統計,截至2016年12月,中國網民規模達7.31億,相當於歐洲人口總量。在這個世界上互聯網用戶最多的國家,存在著嚴重網絡審查與封鎖。大量國外網站被中國"防火長城"封鎖。在中國想要訪問這些網站,必須使用虛擬專用網絡(VPN)服務,通過境外服務器獲取被封鎖網站的內容。

DW.COM


中國正式“清算”VPN


VPN--虛擬專用網絡,迄今被視為在中國突破防火牆的有效手段,操作簡便而且成本較低。新年伊始,中國工信部就發布整頓通知,宣佈各基礎電信企業、互聯網網絡接入服務企業不經批准,不得自建或租用含虛擬專用網絡VPN在內的專線開展跨境經營活動。(22.01.2017)


專訪:防火牆已經過時


信息管制新武器:中國“大砲”


中國網絡審查:一場貓捉老鼠的遊戲


一些網友擔心,工信部的通知出台後,未來在使用VPN"翻牆"時會受到限制。

有觀點認為,新規是中國試圖建立完全封閉的局域網的最新一步。中國的網絡最終可能完全和國際互聯網脫節。一名微博用戶評論道,"心痛到無法呼吸"。

不過也有IT專家認為,該通知並非是針對個人用戶的,也不是要禁止在中國使用VPN服務。

"對翻牆的影響微乎其微"

從事應用程序研發的網絡技術專家柯比對德國之聲表示,這條通知主要是要"清理接入市場的混亂","而不是針對VPN","對翻牆上網的影響微乎其微"。

柯比以中國小區常見的寬帶小廣告為例解釋道,一些網絡寬帶公司無證經營、超地域範圍經營、超業務範圍經營以及層層轉租轉讓經營許可證。這種低成本的服務侵害了官方利益,而這些寬帶公司提供的服務之一就是提供虛擬專用網。

"如果是報備、需要做跨國業務,是可以申報(VPN)的,(通知)不是都限制",柯比說。

他表示,對於個人用戶而言,區別在於:"如果過去連上的不是知名的、海外的VPN,而是國內一些服務商仿照其名稱做的假推薦,若註冊了這些VPN服務,那麼現在肯定用不了。 "

Fifth delay announced for Japan's MRJ jet. 日本三菱公司就強迫勞動向二戰戰俘道歉(BBC中文網報導)


Fifth delay announced for Japan's MRJ jet, raising concerns about new sales

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. puts off handing over its passenger jet and announces a 30 percent jump in development costs.


*日本三菱公司就強迫勞動向二戰戰俘道歉(BBC中文網報導)
日本三菱公司在美國洛杉磯的一場儀式上,就二次大戰期間強迫美軍戰俘勞動的行為正式道歉
2三菱綜合材料集團的常務執行董事木村光星期天(719日)在儀式上說,這些戰俘當年被迫在三菱財閥旗下的礦場當苦工,集團對此感到後悔。這場儀式在日本戰敗70週年即將來臨之際舉行,據信這是日本企業首次就二戰強迫勞動行為作出公開道歉。

94
歲的前二戰戰俘詹姆士·墨菲作為少數仍然在生的戰俘接受了三菱的道歉。他說這是戰俘們期盼了70年的「光榮日子」。他說:「我很仔細聆聽了木村先生的道歉聲明,我覺得這十分誠懇、謙虛和發人深省。」「我們希望我們現在可以面向未來,更好的理解對方,與日本這個盟友維持更好的友誼和更密切的關係。」日本政府此前已向美國戰俘作出正式道歉,三菱企業這次是自行決定道歉。據美國媒體報道,三菱只能找到兩名仍然在生的戰俘,而只有墨菲仍然有能力赴會。
當年被日本強制服勞役的二戰戰俘數以千計,他們是菲律賓、中國等盟軍戰俘,其中大約500人是美軍戰俘。墨菲向美國媒體透露,他曾經在三菱公司位於福島縣塙町的的一個銅礦內被迫勞役,這一經歷「恐怖之至」。他說,當時戰俘們「像奴隸一樣幹活,沒有吃的,沒有藥品,沒有衣服也沒有廁所」,而讓戰俘們更加難受的是三菱公司當時生產戰鬥機就是用來對付美國軍隊。墨菲說,雖然他原諒了日本軍人,但還是想為自己的遭遇要一個道歉。而對他來說,雖然三菱公司並沒有作出金錢賠償,但是口頭的道歉也「意義非凡」。記者們說,目前尚不清楚為什麼在戰爭過去這麼多年之後三菱公司才肯正式道歉
日本政府五年前曾經向美國戰俘正式道歉。(資料來源:BBC中文, http://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/world/2015/07/150720_us_japan_mitsubishi_apology
2015/7/20

2017年1月20日 星期五

台灣周邊有事"的模擬戰 China warns Japan against interfering in Taiwan affairs

"台灣周邊有事"的模擬戰

China warns Japan against interfering in Taiwan affairs

KYODO
China warned Japan on Friday against interfering in Taiwan’s affairs following a media report saying Tokyo’s armed forces plan a tabletop exercise next week on the assumption that there will be a military clash between the Chinese mainland and the self-ruled island.
“The Taiwan issue is internal affairs of China. We hope the Japanese side will speak and act cautiously,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said at a press briefing, when asked about the Kyodo News report, adding that Tokyo should not take any action that would undermine peace and stability in the region.
The report, released Wednesday, said Japan’s Self-Defense Forces will conduct the simulated exercise from next Monday to Friday, with the U.S. military taking part as an observer.
Citing a Japanese government source, it said the purpose of the drill is to check how SDF members should perform new duties allowed under Japan’s new security law in the outbreak of a situation deemed to pose serious threats to the country’s peace and security.
The Global Times, a nationalistic tabloid affiliated with the Communist Party, also printed Friday a news story on the report, quoting a Chinese defense official as saying Beijing “firmly opposes” such an exercise that represents “deliberate provocations” to cross-strait relations.
The Chinese official is also quoted as saying it would “seriously damage China-Japan relations.”
The tabletop exercise will take place at a time when China is increasingly nervous and frustrated with the pro-independence leanings of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s views on the democratic island, which Beijing regards as a breakaway province awaiting reunification, by force if necessary.
The Japanese government source, however, said the exercise was planned before Trump, who takes office on Friday, was elected to be the next U.S. president in November.

CIA解密文件:中共50年代曾策劃攻港 在港搞暗殺、恐怖活動 顛覆香港警隊

美國中情局早前在網上公開近93萬份、共1300萬頁解密檔案,包括中港情報文件。80年代的文件提及,中共透過工聯會「發功」,反對香港實行直選,當時是新華社香港分社(後來改組成中聯辦)已有能力左右本地報章社評,並向報章編輯提供津貼。
早在50年代的中情局文件,更講述中共建政後,曾經欲揮軍南下侵佔香港,下令國企等單位準備撤出香港;在50年代初期,中情局指中共在香港從事恐怖活動,試圖顛覆香港警隊,以及暗殺在港的國民黨份子 ....
美國中情局早前在網上公開近93萬份、共1300萬頁解密檔案,包括中港情報…
THESTANDNEWS.COM

日本APA酒店連鎖放置否認南京大屠殺書籍,打算從客房收回這本書

日本酒店帝國APA因為在客房中擺放推廣右翼歷史的書籍引發憤怒,中國遊客威脅要抵制APA。
對此,APA發聲明稱,「對歷史的解釋和教育因國家而異」。
「我們不打算從客房收回這本書,」該公司說,「來自單方面的壓力」不會迫使它改變主意。
APA集團創始人在旗下酒店房間內擺放推廣右翼歷史的書籍,受到來自中國公眾和官方的譴責。有中國遊客威脅抵制該酒店。APA回應稱「對歷史的解釋和教育因國家而異」。
CN.NYTIMES.COM

2017年1月19日 星期四

1997年以來,香港被拖進了「中華民族」的凌遲之中,已經持續了20年的倒退、20年的苦悶和鬱躁。

上報評論圈】他們失去參選權 也失去了年宵攤位
拖,毫無道理的拖,是中國一直的應對措施,實際上就是沒有應對措施。自1997年以來,香港被拖進了「中華民族」的凌遲之中,已經持續了20年的倒退、20年的苦悶和鬱躁。
香港民族黨和青年新政兩個政團,本來成功競投維多利亞公園的年宵攤位,昨日(18日)卻遭食物環境衛生署(食......
UPMEDIA.MG