2017年1月30日 星期一

China Won’t Run From a Fight With Trump BY MICHAEL AUSLIN

China Won’t Run From a Fight With Trump

The new U.S. president says he’s ready to stand up to China in its own backyard — but Beijing won’t take that lying down.
JANUARY 24, 2017

Watching warily as Donald Trump takes office, China’s leaders are contemplating the prospect of a more assertive U.S. president willing to upend decades of Sino-U.S. relations. Trump’s Asia policy represents the first major reshaping of U.S. policy toward China since the normalization of diplomatic relations in 1979, and, from Beijing’s perspective, it is currently on a worst-case trajectory, heading toward a trade war and a military standoff over China’s basic interests in Asia, including Taiwan.

The 45th president presents a potentially unique challenge for China — but not one wholly unanticipated. Already having strenuously opposed former President Barack Obama’s “pivot” to Asia, Chinese leaders likely view the shift to Trump more as one of degrees, if extreme, than in kind. The tenor of U.S.-China relations has worsened in recent years, despite the regularity of high-level diplomatic engagements and public expressions of common interests.

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What Beijing is unused to, however, is Trump’s willingness even before taking office to publicly excoriate China, link economic and security issues, and muse about ending diplomatic bedrocks such as the “One China” policy. In briefly seizing a U.S. Navy underwater drone last month in international waters near the Philippines, the Chinese were making clear that both Obama’s pivot has been ineffective and that Trump’s rhetoric does not scare them. Yet their repeated warnings to Trump that he is flirting with potential disaster indicate that they take his statements seriously and are trying to deter him from harming Chinese interests. Nobody yet knows what either side will do if Beijing fails in that attempt and a more direct confrontation becomes inevitable.

Trump’s approach, even before taking office, has been to keep China off balance. After four decades of U.S. presidents acting largely deferentially toward Beijing,

China’s leaders are undoubtedly flummoxed by Trump.

China’s leaders are undoubtedly flummoxed by Trump. His statements challenging the status quo have been paired with signals that he intends to pursue a more normal relationship. His appointment of Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad as ambassador was welcomed in Beijing, given Branstad’s past connections with Chinese President Xi Jinping and long-standing economic ties to China. The subtext of Trump’s meeting with Jack Ma, one of China’s wealthiest businessmen and founder of internet retailing giant Alibaba, was that trade and investment between the two countries are already flourishing. And Beijing saw plenty to welcome in Trump’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership — a move that gave China an edge in creating a broad, regional trade pact while relegating America at best to a series of bilateral pacts — even if it was not intended as an olive branch to China.

But Trump’s repeated assertions that he will not be bound by past precedent outweigh his conciliatory moves in Chinese eyes. As Beijing contemplates the pendulum in Asia potentially swinging back against it in coming days, the Chinese government has begun to try and stake out its ground. Xi, for example, in a widely disseminated New Year’s speech made clear that his country will protect its national interests and prevent any foreign moves to restrict its freedom of action in Asia. Unwilling to be seen as being put on the defensive, Beijing is likely to push back even harder, testing the new president and his team and trying to get them to back down.

China’s greatest fear is that Trump will encourage, if not support, moves toward Taiwan’s independence.

China’s greatest fear is that Trump will encourage, if not support, moves toward Taiwan’s independence. This potentially threatens the geopolitical integrity of the country, as it could strengthen similar movements in other separatist regions, such as Hong Kong and Xinjiang. Already on alert after Trump’s unprecedented phone call with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, Beijing warned against allowing Tsai to stop over in the United States this month during an international trip. More threateningly, the government has stated that any attempt by Trump to change the status quo over Taiwan would cross a “red line” and incur “revenge.” A meeting in the flesh between Trump and Tsai would cause the most serious crisis in U.S.-China relations since normalization in 1979.

North Korea could also become an arena where China tests the new president. Trump recently tweeted that Beijing has done nothing to help denuclearize Pyongyang while “taking out massive amounts of money [and] wealth” from the United States. Years of failed diplomacy with North Korea have dampened any hope for new talks, but Beijing could respond to Trump’s accusation by increasing economic aid to Kim Jong Un, dropping support for recent U.N. sanctions, and ending any attempt at or, in the view of some, pretense of restraining Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs. With Pyongyang about to test a new intercontinental ballistic missile that can potentially reach U.S. territory, any such Chinese assistance would alarm America’s national security establishment and also put South Korea and Japan, two of Washington’s closest allies in the region, further on edge.

In addition, Trump should expect China to target U.S. allies more aggressively. In recent weeks, China has sent bombers around Taiwan and fighter jets near Japanese and South Korean airspace, as well as very publicly sailed its sole aircraft carrier through the Taiwan Strait and past Japanese waters. This month, China reduced the number of charter flights from South Korea in response to Seoul’s decision last year to host a new American anti-ballistic missile system and is reported to be working with Russia on ways to defeat the defensive weapon. Moreover, Australia has decided against undertaking freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea, and the Philippines’s shift to China under President Rodrigo Duterte is well underway. And Beijing could further rattle Japanese nerves by increasing its military activities near the contested Senkaku Islands — also known as the Diaoyu — in the East China Sea.

Given Secretary of State nominee Rex Tillerson’s confirmation testimony directly challenging Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea, which indicated that the new administration would consider denying China access to its newly reclaimed islands, the slow boil of the past several years over China’s expansion in Pacific waters may heat up rapidly. Backing down in the face of American threats would only open Beijing up to pressure from other Asian nations. Hence, the alarming warnings of a potential “devastating confrontation.”

The toxic combination of Chinese fear and confidence makes some kind of miscalculation or accident more likely. With tensions running high, U.S. military leaders in the Pacific should prepare for even more aggressive action from Chinese naval and air forces, possibly risking a repeat of the April 2001 collision between a Chinese fighter jet and a U.S. Navy surveillance plane. Given Xi’s New Year’s vow to protect the country’s “maritime rights and interests,” the latest in a raft of similar rhetoric, it will be more difficult to contain the aftermath of any new accident. Equally, China may increase its maritime intimidation of smaller nations in the South China Sea, daring the United States to uphold its promises of freedom of navigation.

There are good reasons for China not to undertake any of the actions listed above. Trump’s statements, after all, are just that, and he may well moderate his positions now that he has taken office, as have most of his predecessors, once he gets a full picture of the implications of his possible policies. Similarly, Beijing could decide to focus on the slim olive branches held out by the new president, such as his ambassadorial pick and business meeting with Ma. In contrast, continuing to try and intimidate both the United States and its allies could backfire, resulting in a hardened attitude by the new administration and a greater willingness to challenge Chinese interests.

There is little reason to believe that Xi intends to bend his knee before Trump. His policies since taking power in late 2012 have instead served to increase China’s global engagement, its assertiveness, and its belligerence in protecting its national interests. His statements have made clear his intent to take a place on the world stage equal, if not superior, to the United States. His continuing assertion of these goals, even in the face of a domestic economic slowdown and international setbacks (such as The Hague ruling against Chinese claims in the South China Sea), reveals the importance he attaches to a strong foreign policy.

There is no question, however, that Trump has already changed the dynamic in U.S.-China relations. For years, it has been American presidents who have chosen not to antagonize Beijing or exacerbate tensions with China and Chinese leaders who have been willing to push the envelope. In boldly, and riskily, seizing the initiative even before being sworn in, Trump may have turned the tables on his Chinese counterparts. It may now be China’s leaders who tread more cautiously.

Photo credit: SPENCER PLATT/Getty Images

南海波濤洶湧—《泰晤士報》外交版編輯 Roger Boyes —觀念座標

※ 2017.01.27 觀點—《泰晤士報》外交版編輯 Roger Boyes ※
美國第四十五任總統,唐納德‧川普,已經更進一步:他的政府就任還不到一週,就已暗示可以在北京的南海人工島外圍,築成海軍封鎖線。這個威脅,首先由國務卿提名人,雷克斯‧提勒森(Rex Tillerson),在參議院確認聽證會上提出,之後又在本週再度重覆——這是一個很明確的舉動——美國等於是通知中國,中國積極擴張領土的作法,美國都會抵抗;在外交上,中國想要拉攏美國傳統的盟友,如菲律賓,美國也會主動挑戰。
對川普的顧問們——特別是美國全國的貿易會議主席,彼得‧納瓦羅(Peter Navarro)來說——美國與中國已經走上衝突的道路,而且不止在南海而已。從川普的顧問們看來,中國似乎想變成第一等的海軍強權,擠壓其他貿易夥伴的空間,直接挑戰美國的全球領導地位。納瓦羅先生以一本書、紀錄片《中國導致的死亡》(Death by China)而引起川普先生的注意,他在書裡面主張:美國進口血汗工廠的中國製品,等於是在關閉美國的工廠。

2017年1月29日 星期日

Most people with mental disorders in China never receive treatment

On January 20th a woman with a psychiatric condition was found locked in a cage in a wood in Guizhou. She had been put in it by her brother, who claimed the local government knew about her case

China’s shame. Sufferers are routinely treated as a danger to society

2017年1月28日 星期六

one of Australia’s most iconic animals: the dingo澳洲野犬

Dingo walking.jpg
界:動物界 Animalia
門:脊索動物門 Chordata
綱:哺乳綱 Mammalia
目:食肉目 Carnivora
科:犬科 Canidae
屬:犬屬 Canis
種: C. lupus
亞種:澳洲野犬 C. l. dingo
Canis lupus dingo
Meyer, 1793
Canis familiaris dingo Meyer, 1793

Unlike their European successors, these earlier settlers were assimilated by the locals. And they brought with them one of Australia’s most iconic animals: the dingo

Prehistoric migration: An Antipodean Raj

2017年1月26日 星期四

作者訪談:(Julian Gewirtz)的《不可能的合作夥伴:中國的改革者、西方的經濟學家和全球化中國的形成》

哈佛大學出版社本月出版了朱利安·格維茨(Julian Gewirtz)的《不可能的合作夥伴:中國的改革者、西方的經濟學家和全球化中國的形成》(Unlikely Partners: Chinese Reformers, Western Economists, and the Making of Global China),


另一方面,我們看到唐納德·J·川普和他提名的人,尤其是首席貿易顧問彼得·納瓦羅(Peter Navarro)對中國發出了嚴厲的指責。在這方面,歷史上有沒有什麼經驗可以借鑒?
即便在川普退出跨太平洋夥伴關係(Trans-Pacific Partnership)後,美國也應該試圖在亞洲地區經濟中發揮自己的作用,但不是本著將中國排除在外的目的。幾乎所有重要的全球問題,都需要美國與中國協作才能解決,我們兩國的繁榮依然休戚相關,儘管川普總統的圈子裡有人持不同看法。

“The Most Beautiful Village in the World”. Toutiao ...Vietnam, India, ...Trump


Bon Ishikawa discovers the strength of community in documentary on Nepal earthquake


During one scene in Bon Ishikawa’s upcoming documentary “Sekai de Ichiban Utsukushii Mura” (“The Most Beautiful Village in the World”), the photographer-turned-filmmaker uses a drone to capture one of Asia’s oldest traditions: the collecting ...

The insanely popular Chinese news app with 600 million users that you’ve probably never heard of.

Toutiao uses artificial intelligence to curate headline recommendations.


It's on to Plan B.

The nation could have benefited the most from the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

India's IT sector worried about Trump's protectionist rhetoric

Questions are being raised whether US President Donald Trump will impact
India's flourishing IT industry, which is hoping for a smooth transition in
outsourcing and movement of skilled workers. Murali Krishnan reports.

The Philippines' growth last year was faster than China's.

 Bloomberg Asia 都分享了 1 條連結

The Philippines' growth last year was faster than China's.
It's finally catching up with its fellow Asian tiger economies.

The World Bank forecasts expansion of more than 6% for eight years until…

2017年1月23日 星期一

中國嚴管VPN 打擊“翻牆”還是內部洗牌?















他表示,對於個人用戶而言,區別在於:"如果過去連上的不是知名的、海外的VPN,而是國內一些服務商仿照其名稱做的假推薦,若註冊了這些VPN服務,那麼現在肯定用不了。 "

Fifth delay announced for Japan's MRJ jet. 日本三菱公司就強迫勞動向二戰戰俘道歉(BBC中文網報導)

Fifth delay announced for Japan's MRJ jet, raising concerns about new sales

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. puts off handing over its passenger jet and announces a 30 percent jump in development costs.


日本政府五年前曾經向美國戰俘正式道歉。(資料來源:BBC中文, http://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/world/2015/07/150720_us_japan_mitsubishi_apology

2017年1月20日 星期五

台灣周邊有事"的模擬戰 China warns Japan against interfering in Taiwan affairs


China warns Japan against interfering in Taiwan affairs

China warned Japan on Friday against interfering in Taiwan’s affairs following a media report saying Tokyo’s armed forces plan a tabletop exercise next week on the assumption that there will be a military clash between the Chinese mainland and the self-ruled island.
“The Taiwan issue is internal affairs of China. We hope the Japanese side will speak and act cautiously,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said at a press briefing, when asked about the Kyodo News report, adding that Tokyo should not take any action that would undermine peace and stability in the region.
The report, released Wednesday, said Japan’s Self-Defense Forces will conduct the simulated exercise from next Monday to Friday, with the U.S. military taking part as an observer.
Citing a Japanese government source, it said the purpose of the drill is to check how SDF members should perform new duties allowed under Japan’s new security law in the outbreak of a situation deemed to pose serious threats to the country’s peace and security.
The Global Times, a nationalistic tabloid affiliated with the Communist Party, also printed Friday a news story on the report, quoting a Chinese defense official as saying Beijing “firmly opposes” such an exercise that represents “deliberate provocations” to cross-strait relations.
The Chinese official is also quoted as saying it would “seriously damage China-Japan relations.”
The tabletop exercise will take place at a time when China is increasingly nervous and frustrated with the pro-independence leanings of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s views on the democratic island, which Beijing regards as a breakaway province awaiting reunification, by force if necessary.
The Japanese government source, however, said the exercise was planned before Trump, who takes office on Friday, was elected to be the next U.S. president in November.

CIA解密文件:中共50年代曾策劃攻港 在港搞暗殺、恐怖活動 顛覆香港警隊

早在50年代的中情局文件,更講述中共建政後,曾經欲揮軍南下侵佔香港,下令國企等單位準備撤出香港;在50年代初期,中情局指中共在香港從事恐怖活動,試圖顛覆香港警隊,以及暗殺在港的國民黨份子 ....



2017年1月19日 星期四


上報評論圈】他們失去參選權 也失去了年宵攤位