2009年2月28日 星期六

香港企業私有化

【經濟日報╱記者邱詩文/綜合報導】 2009.02.28 03:54 am 香港邵氏兄弟股東特別大會及法院會議,昨(27)日通過大股東私有化建議,邵氏將在3月18日從港股撤牌(即下市),後續估計還有電訊盈科、匯源等不下十家企業將跟進私有化。 邵氏兄弟副主席兼董事總經理方逸華示,私有化後會維持公司現有營運。她說,有買家洽購電視廣播(TVB),但邵氏沒有計畫出售TVB;她又透露,邵氏主席邵逸夫將尋找合適時機退休。 昨天的股東特別大會超過九成九支持私有化,有小股東認為,大股東的出價算合理因此支持。 近期有愈來愈多香港上市公司大股東跟進提議私有化。除處於私有化進程中的電訊盈科、匯源果汁和海灣控股外;最近兩周先後又傳出南太電子、華潤微電子和鱷魚恤大股東提出私有化的消息。 市場還揣測,上海石化、儀征化纖、中油香港、工銀亞洲和麗新發展等,後市均有大股東私有化的可能;另外,TCL系及閩信股價都已過低,也被點名為私有化價值最高的個股。

经济危机中农民工境遇恶化

台灣媒體轉報北京的"網奴"賣自己的服務


德语媒体 | 2009.02.28

经济危机中农民工境遇恶化

北京西郊六里桥是农民工集散地,来自全国各地的农民在那里等待雇主。但今年情况与往年大不一样,《法兰克福星期日汇报》发表的一篇文章介绍了在北京谋生的农民工现状:

"他们从农村来到这个拥有1700万人 口的城市、做苦工的炼狱。他们累弯了腰、折钢筋、堆石块,在钢筋水泥上创造了'新北京'。他们做的这一切只是为了让别人住进舒适的高楼大厦,自己得到的只 是几块钱工资和城里人鄙视的目光。但不管怎么说,这一体制曾经运转有效,农民工给家里寄钱为农村带来了一点新的富裕生活。

现在,经济危机沉重打击了中国。过去,中国依赖向美国出口,现在出口量大跌,同时房地产业泡沫破裂。首先身受其害的是农民工,中国工厂解雇的工人相当于一个小国的全国人口。按官方统计,两千万农民工失去了工作。许多人返回农村,尽管那里土地上的微薄收成无法维持生活。"

在六里桥,找工作的农民工连最廉价的客店床位也租不起,许多人睡在车站通道的地面上。《法兰克福星期日汇报》在那里采访了一名来自吉林敦化的44岁农民工,这位姓唐的男子谈起了他的境遇:

"十一年前,老唐工作的国营木材厂一气解雇了四 分之三的职工。当时政府放手甩掉许多衰败的国营企业,一股解雇浪潮席卷全国。老唐没有获得任何补偿,每月只能领到280元。他把这点钱给了离婚的妻子及女 儿,自己身无分文。失业后老唐在一艘渔船上打工,游弋于朝鲜领海附近。三年后,渔船在一个港口让他上了岸,那里离北京不远了。

老唐从一张凳子上站起来,展示他当年在北京郊区一家私营煤矿做苦工的情景。他弯着腰,做出当年在井下打工时用双手扒煤块的样子。后来,他的一个朋友被落下的岩石砸伤脊背,这个煤矿因安全原因被关闭。

此后,他在首都做过许多工作,有时几天,有时几 个月。他为可口可乐装箱、运石头、奥运开始前为国家体育场的钢架刷漆。找到好工作时,每月能挣1500元到2000元人民币,但最后每天挣的钱不足20 元。他说,'现在连这样低工资的活计也没有了'。甚至返回东北吉林老家的路费他也花不起,春节期间不得不留在北京。"

中国官方称,中国有一亿三千万农民工,占全国人 口10%,《法兰克福星期日汇报》最后写道,农民工失业使"他们的家属也感受到影响,因为农村家庭的一大部分收入依靠在城市打工亲人的资助。""政府担心 出现社会动乱,因反对解雇和欠薪,去年年底一些地方已发生了工人抗议。"

本文摘自或节译自其它媒体

不代表德国之声观点

凌沧洲:与其做政治影帝,不如开放媒体

中国 | 2009.02.28

凌沧洲:与其做政治影帝,不如开放媒体

2月28日下午,中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理温家宝考察了中国政府网,并在历史上首次与全球网民进行在线文字与视频交流。新华网称“短短的两个小时 内,共收到10万个帖子的提问和留言,以及数万手机用户的信息反馈。”温家宝与网友的交流是想传达怎样的一种信号呢?德国之声中文部记者采访了北京知名媒 体人凌沧洲。

德国之声:您是怎样看待温家宝与网友的这次交流的?

凌沧洲:中国的高级领导人通过网络与网民进行交 流,从形式上来说,也是领导人一个开放的心态,是一个进步。但是,我觉得从总体来讲,还是一个形象营销的工程。就我现在看到的,没有什么太多的突破。而且 我不知道您是否注意到了,我刚才在看新华网,很多网友的提问,新华网上打不开。我的疑问是,是不是温家宝在回答网友提问的时候,还要对这些问题进行“审查 ”,才能够发表,还是有什么疑问。

德国之声:温家宝对一些相对敏感问题的回答,您是否感到满意?

凌沧洲:您知道,虽然说现在提问已经有几十万 条,但是能通过筛选,能进入到温家宝先生视野中问题,我觉得是非常有限的。只能说在中共的高层里边,温还算是比较开明的人士。他的一些回答,有点符合民众 的意愿,但是很多没有给出具体的时间表来。比如说官员财产申报的事,依然是说“在积极准备着”。那么我们不禁要问,这个准备,是要准备到什么时候呢?是不 是一万年太久呢?过去毛泽东有句诗词讲“一万年太久,只争朝夕”。我们的反腐败,权力的制衡机制,民主机制的建立,是不是应该有这种紧迫感呢?

也就是说,总的来讲,我觉得依然是一个“政治影帝”。有个别网民说,温在营造这种亲和力,营造这种亲民的形象,依然是一种作秀和表演。我觉得从某种意义上来讲,是有这个政治影帝的味道。

德国之声:通过这次回答网友提问,您认为国内民众比较关心的焦点话题是什么呢?

凌沧洲:国内民众,我认为关心的焦点一个是民生 问题。自从去年金融海啸以来,珠三角,长三角许多中小企业倒闭之后,带来了大量的失业,包括经济萧条。这种经济萧条,很多网民,很多听众都是感同身受的。 我想你可以看看附近商场的萧条度,倒闭商家的数量,我觉得这是最迫切的问题。

当然另外一个问题是说政治的改革和民主的进程,我认为这是中国老百姓所关心的一个重要的话题。这个包括王府井的自焚事件,包括有人爬上电线杆,挂上牌子高喊“打倒极权,还我政治权力”。公民表达的途径,渠道在哪里呢?

所以我想,与其你“政治影帝”,有上网回答网民 问题的这种途径,或者说这种形式,能不能把网络更开放呢?能不能把传统媒体放开?民间能不能有自由创办报刊,电台,电视台的权力?再有,我们一定要认识 到,现在通过网络来回答网民的这种大背景,是在关闭了几千家网站的基础上来做这种事的。

德国之声:去年的时候,胡锦涛也与网友进行过在线交流,而在温家宝回答网友提问之前,还有网友热议的“躲猫猫事件”,都是通过网络解决的。您如何看待在中国的政治改革中,网络所起的影响作用?

凌沧洲:我认为网络越发地显示出其重要作用。去 年胡到人民网作客,只回答了几个问题,可以说非常简短,不像今天温回答了很多问题。我觉得新一代领导人也在利用网络。同时,互联网也是上帝恩赐给中国人民 非常好的礼物。现在网上的民意正在形成越来越巨大的压力,我想这是当局防不胜防,堵不胜堵的。尽管当局利用大量的关闭网站,包括屏蔽的手段,但是无法扼制 人民对民主和自由的诉求,网络正在显示其强大的民意。我相信它将成为推动中国政治改革的力量之一。

Taiwan, China Negotiating a Landmark Free-Trade Agreement

Taiwan, China Negotiating a Landmark Free-Trade Agreement


Washington Post Foreign Service
Saturday, February 21, 2009; Page A09

BEIJING, Feb. 20 -- Taiwan and China are negotiating a wide-ranging free-trade agreement that represents an important step toward the possibility of unification of the longtime adversaries.

The Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement would allow the free flow of goods, services and capital across the Taiwan Strait at a time when the economies of the mainland and the democratic self-ruled island are increasingly interdependent. While Taiwanese groups have tried to play down the political implications of the economic pact, those on the mainland are already talking about the eventual union of the two.

Li Fei, deputy director of the Taiwan Studies Center at Xiamen University on the mainland, said the agreement would be a significant milestone in gradually warming relations between the antagonists. "It's a start toward full cross-strait economic integration and a necessary condition for marching forward toward final unification," Li said.

Taiwan and China have been governed separately since 1949, when Nationalist forces fled the communist takeover. China insists that Taiwan has and always will be an inseparable extension of the mainland, while Taiwan has maintained that it is a self-governing

The United States, under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, has pledged to defend the island if China launches a military attack, but the nature of that commitment is vague. The U.S. sale of military equipment to Taiwan has long angered China, which has more than 1,000 missiles pointed toward the island. Analysts are paying careful attention to Chinese statements and maneuvers that involve the missile program for indications of a genuine easing of tensions.

Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou took office in May on a platform of improved relations with China, which was a turnabout from his predecessor, Chen Shui-bian, a strong backer of Taiwan's independence who routinely provoked China and irritated the United States.

Ma quickly delivered on his campaign promises: beginning regularly scheduled direct flights for passengers, shipments and mail between China and Taiwan and committing to high-level talks with counterparts on the mainland every six months. Although many business and industry groups in Taiwan have enthusiastically backed Ma's approach, it has drawn passionate criticism from opposition parties and some scholars.

Kenneth Lin, an economics professor at National Taiwan University, said the agreement would be tantamount to "de facto unification" despite its name. Hong Tsai-lung, an associate research fellow at the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, describes the agreement as "a rose with thorns" that "will deepen Taiwan's dependence on China."

In an interview with the Taipei Times published Friday, Ma seemed to imply that the agreement is a certainty, but he hesitated to respond directly to questions about whether signing it would be tantamount to acknowledging that Taiwan belongs to China.

"As to how the international community perceives the issue, it depends on the stances of different countries," Ma said. "Some countries agree with us, and our allies won't think Taiwan becomes part of communist China when it signs an agreement."

Pressed by the reporter, Ma responded: "We will take economic measures to solve economic problems with less politics and ideology. So far we have not seen any attempts by communist China to force Taiwan to do things we cannot accept, and we wouldn't have to accept it if they did so."

While Ma and other officials have spoken in recent days as if the agreement is a done deal, Hsu Chun-fang, a spokeswoman for the Bureau of Foreign Trade in Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs, was more cautious in a telephone interview.


"It's hard to say when it will come out. Currently, there are a lot of opposing voices in Taiwan. Since Taiwan is a democratic and free country, the government cannot step further before people making consensus," Hsu said.

Despite the political antagonism between Taiwan and China, their economies have become increasingly entwined over the years, and until recently, most of the money flowed to the mainland. Taiwanese businesses now own large numbers of factories in China's manufacturing centers. Until Ma's more relaxed regulations, people were sometimes forced to take elaborate measures to conduct business across the strait. For example, a traveler could not fly directly from Shanghai to Taipei, a flight of a little more than an hour. Instead, travelers had to switch planes in Hong Kong, doubling their travel time.

But with Taiwan's economy in recession -- its gross domestic product shrank a record 8.36 percent in the last quarter of 2008 -- Ma's administration is hoping that investment from the mainland may provide a boost. In addition, with China set to begin a free-trade agreement with the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in 2010, Taiwan is under pressure not to be left out.

"Taiwan needs the help of the mainland," said Sun Shengliang, director of the economic studies center of the Institute of Taiwan Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. "If the agreement can be signed, it will bring bigger benefit to Taiwan than to the mainland."

Tsai Lien-sheng, secretary general of the Chinese National Federation of Industries, a trade group in Taiwan, said that if Taiwan does not sign a free-trade agreement with the mainland, "we are going to be marginalized." Although Taiwan and China in recent years dropped most discriminatory tariffs on each other's exports, industry groups believe that eliminating such barriers entirely would be in the best interest of both, especially since China has already signed similar agreements with Taiwan's neighbors and competitors in Asia.

"We cannot compete with paying a much higher duty when other countries have agreed to much lower or zero duties," Tsai said. "The exports of Taiwan will be harmed severely, and foreign capital will be less interested in investing in Taiwan."

Hsieh Jun-hsiung, executive manager of the Petrochemical Industry Association of Taiwan, pointed out that Taiwan now sells about half its petrochemical products to the mainland. China imposes a tariff of about 6.5 percent on imports of petrochemical products from Taiwan and a 6 percent tariff on those from South Korea. But South Korea's tariff will soon be eliminated, putting Taiwanese s companies at a disadvantage.

"The sooner, the better. We just sent an urgent letter to the government to push them to do it quicker," Hsieh said. "Our requirement is quite simple: Right now our treatment is unequal compared with other countries. We need equal treatment. If Taiwan keeps the status quo on this, about half of our products will be unsellable soon."

Researchers Liu Liu and Zhang Jie contributed to this report.


2009年2月27日 星期五

东盟峰会召开:危机中看东南亚怎么走

时事风云 | 2009.02.27

东盟峰会召开:危机中看东南亚怎么走

东南亚联盟峰会28日将正式在泰国召开。今天已经在泰国的海滨度假胜地差安和华欣举行了预备性会议。在全球经济危机的形势下,东盟也无法独善其身,需要面对劳动力出口受阻等一系列严峻问题。有关人士呼吁该组织制定一份统一的经济刺激计划,拉动东盟国家的经济复苏。

东南亚经济正不断滑坡。由于出口大幅度减少,2008年年底泰国经济出现了15年来从未有过的严重萎缩。 新加坡也是如此。虽然新加坡是个富裕的国家,经济发展走在东南亚国家的前列,但是在此次经济危机中所遭受的损失也非同一般。

同泰国一样,新加坡也是一个出口型国家。目前这两个国家已各自制定了拉动景气的经济刺激计划。但一些观察员认为,最好的办法是东南亚国家联盟采取跨 国家的联合行动。只有这样才会更加有利于该地区的经济发展。非政府组织-关注南半球组织负责人约·查韦斯指出:"我认为,东南亚国家联盟需要一个统一的经 济刺激计划。必须仿效新加坡的榜样,必须接受严酷的事实。也就是说,要接受我们所有国家都受到了经济危机影响这个事实。各成员国必须放弃各自为政的做法。 象菲律宾在过去几周曾多次强调说,菲律宾没有受到全球经济危机的影响。这是不可能的。没有任何国家具有免疫力,能够在这场全球性经济危机中独善其身。东南 亚国家联盟的任何一个成员国都不能自欺欺人。"

在这场全球性经济危机中,恰恰是自称没有受到影响的菲律宾,因为劳动力输出发生困难,而遭受了严重损失。在台湾的电子工业出现萎缩后,2008年年 底有数千名菲律宾籍工人不得不从台湾返回家乡。印尼工人也面临同样的问题。马来西亚已经宣布,不再为外来劳力发放签证。亚洲移民论坛的查拉-琼-纳坦批评 说,派遣劳力的国家没有采取相应的对策,"我们认为,政府应当采取全面的应对措施,比如推出回返人员重新融入社会的计划。移民问题当然也包括返乡移民的安 置问题,包括派遣劳力国家今后如何继续发展,如果为返乡移民创造就业机会等等"。

关注南半球组织负责人约·查韦斯强调说,东南亚国家必须进一步采取措施推动经济发展,保障社会安定,"应当认真考虑下一步行动,考虑如何签订更多的 自由贸易区协定,尤其是同发展中国家签订自由贸易协定 这个问题。比如5月份欧盟和东南亚国家联盟将就双边自由贸易协定举行第四轮谈判。而这类自由贸易在目前经济危机的形势下已不再具有过去那样的吸引力。这种 曾经让东南亚国家长期引以为豪的自由贸易,目前对于东南亚地区来说反而是个极大的风险"。

然而时光无法倒流。全球经济已经形成了现在的这种相互制约的关系。但在有一点上亚洲国家学会了如何同西方世界保持距离。这就是亚洲国家吸取了 1997年和1998年亚洲金融危机的教训,正在努力同例如国际货币基金组织这样的贷款机构保持距离。东南亚国家联盟的10个成员国已同中国,日本和韩国 共同建立了亚洲债券基金。这个基金的目的是帮助那些陷入了经济危机的成员国摆脱困境,避免国际金融投机商象1997年那样在泰国的炒作再次发生。因此有关 国家的财政部长不久前决定,将这个基金的规模从800亿美元提高到1200亿美元。

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Nicola Glass

2009年2月26日 星期四

中國人權惡化 工會

美國務院報告:中國人權惡化

〔駐 美特派員曹郁芬、編譯羅彥傑/綜合報導〕儘管美國國務卿希拉蕊日前到中國北京訪問,避免在人權議題上和中國衝撞,但美國國務院在二十五日公布的二○○八年 年度人權報告中,卻直指中國政府的人權紀錄仍然很差,在某些方面甚至有惡化跡象,而且一一羅列各種侵犯人權事項。中國官方喉舌「新華社」則回批相關指控毫 無根據,抨擊這份報告干預中國內政,忽視中國在人權上的成就。

國務院在人權報告中,雖然提到亞洲、中東、非洲與東歐其他國家的人權狀況普遍 惡化,但特別一一列舉中國的諸多侵害人權事件,中國部分不但內容較長,而且更鉅細靡遺。其他被批評人權紀錄惡劣的國家還包括北韓、俄羅斯、巴基斯坦、阿富 汗、古巴、蘇丹、索馬利亞、緬甸與辛巴威。這份報告涵蓋二○○八一整年,而且大多是在布希總統任內所草擬,但在結論署名的是希拉蕊。

鎮壓人權 北京奧運時達到高峰

報告指出,中國政府加強了對西藏、新疆少數民族的文化與宗教迫害,同時加強了對異議分子和請願者的羈押與騷擾,對於言論自由與網路也嚴格控制,在去年北京奧運和西藏暴動等重大事件發生時,這些違反人權的事件達到高峰。

人民受限 沒有更換政府的自由

報 告說:「中國政府的人權紀錄依然糟糕,在某些領域甚至惡化。」報告提到,中國當局持續限制公民隱私權、言論自由、集會自由、遷徙與結社自由。報告說,中國 當局也執行司法程序以外的殺戮與刑求,對囚犯嚴刑逼供,而且進行強制勞動。報告表示,中國人民沒有更換政府的自由,國內外的非政府組織仍面臨嚴格的限制。

中 國官方傳聲筒新華社二十六日表示:「這份報告中的涉華部分不顧中國人權取得的歷史性進步,繼續歪曲事實,無端攻擊中國人權狀況,對中國民族、宗教和司法制 度等說三道四。」新華社也引述中國外交部發言人馬朝旭的回應表示:「中國奉勸美方多反省自己的人權問題,不要再以『人權衛士』自居,停止藉發表人權報告干 涉別國內政。」


*****

中国 | 2009.02.26

防止矿难还必须允许工人成立自己的组织

2月22日,山西省焦煤集团西山煤电屯兰煤矿发生瓦斯爆炸事故,造成74名矿工死亡,114人受伤住院。中国官方对这起大型矿难事故公布的初步调查结果 是,煤矿通风不畅,矿道瓦斯含量过高,造成爆炸。中国劳工通讯驻巴黎代表蔡崇国分析认为,防止矿难还必须允许工人成立自己的组织。

2月22日凌晨发生在山西省焦煤集团西山煤电屯兰的矿难已造成74名矿工死亡,是自2007年12月造成105人死亡的山西洪洞新窑矿难以 来山西发生的造成死亡人数最多的矿难事件。而今年1月,中国安全监管总局副局长、国家煤监局局长赵铁锤刚刚宣布,2008年中国煤矿事故起数和死亡人数明 显下降。

中国的煤矿中,小煤矿数量占近80%。小煤矿发生重特大事故的比例占到矿山事故的60%之多。中国劳工通讯驻巴黎代表蔡崇国介绍说,中国这几年对煤 矿安全整治的重点放在中小型煤矿,关闭了一些安全生产不合格的小煤矿,但是对大型国有煤矿的安全工作比较放松。实际上大型国有煤矿的管理和私有煤矿是差不 多的,"很多大型国有煤矿说是国有,但很多矿井和采集实际上承包给私人。私人承包商雇佣农民工,这些农民工没有经过技术培训。"

蔡崇国表示,对大型国有煤矿和对中小型煤矿发生矿难的处理应该采取不同的方式。一般情况下,大型国有煤矿发生矿难,舆论立即要求处理事故责任者。此 次山西屯兰煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故发生之后,当地政府负责安全生产部门已经宣布,山西焦煤集团屯兰矿矿长、总工程师已被免职,并撤销了负责安全生产的副矿长的职 务。蔡崇国认为,这种处理方式不正确,而且危害很大,"处理煤矿事故责任人绝不能跟着舆论走,要根据详细的公开调查以后谁的责任就处理谁。现在煤矿事故这 么频繁,一出事就马上处理一批人,而不明确具体的责任。最后谁都怕负责,有经验和没经验,负责和不负责任的人全在一起受处分。"

蔡崇国表示,发生矿难之后必须要允许记者深入独立地进行跟踪报道,事故如何发生的,原因是什么,工人、工头的反应是什么样,"现在中国的采煤地区都 被地方政府和黑社会封锁住了。事故一出,地方政府先封锁现场,把家属限制在旅馆里不让他们接触记者。没有记者能够进行独立持续的报道。事故发生后,我们无 法看到具体的赔偿方案是否落实,责任人是否查清责任得到处分,防范措施是否得到改进。这样的报道都没有。"

除了允许媒体进行独立和跟踪式报道之外,蔡崇国认为,必须允许工人成立自己的组织。他介绍说,中小型煤矿几乎没有工会组织,大型煤矿有工会组织,但 是工会都是听从于矿山领导。很多情况下,工人知道瓦斯检查员不负责任,但是却不敢拒绝下井,最后成了矿难的牺牲品。工人没有权力是煤矿事故发生的一个重要 原因,"所以要采取措施,怎样能让下井的矿工自己组织起来,至少能组成安全生产监督管理小组,在发现问题的时候,有权利拒绝下井。而且因为安全问题拒绝下 井不会被矿山解雇。同时,工人组织起来能进行安全生产的自我教育,互相监督。他们的监督和煤矿安全生产监督局内外结合上下结合,形成新的安全生产管理体 系。这样,中国煤矿事故才有可能减少。"

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洪沙


2009年2月25日 星期三

Stalemate in Hong Kong: Few Buyers, Few Sellers《與台灣關係法》30年

中國不滿美對台關系法30周年提案

中美國旗
中國不滿美國國會有關決議案
中國外交部對美國國會部分眾議員聯署提出紀念《與台灣關係法》30年決議案表示強烈不滿。

外交部發言人馬朝旭星期三(2月25日)說:“美國會少數議員不顧中方明確反對,執意提出所謂紀念《與台灣關係法》30年決議案,中方對此表示強烈不滿,並已向美方提出了嚴正交涉。”

他說:“美國當年單方面制定的所謂《與台灣關係法》嚴重違反國際關係基本準則和美方向中方所作的嚴肅承諾,干涉中國內政,中國政府和人民從一開始就表示堅決反對。”

馬朝旭敦促美方恪守國際關係基本準則和中美三個聯合公報原則,不以任何方式審議和通過該決議案,妥善慎重處理台灣問題,以免給中美關係帶來消極影響。

美國17名國會議員聯名提出紀年《與台灣關係法》30周年的決議案,表達堅決支持《與台灣關係法》的立場,並提出要支持美台關係的“強化和深入”。

台灣英文報紙《台北時報》報道引消息人士稱,預計這一決議案在4月10日《與台灣關係法》通過30周年之前一定會得到通過。

台灣駐華盛頓經濟文化代表處發言人表示,有關決議案對美台關係具有重大意義。

美國前總統卡特在1979年4月簽署《與台灣關係法》。這是因為中美在當年1月1日恢復邦交後,美國與台灣斷絕關係,引起美國親台人士不滿。

《與台灣關係法》提出台灣安全條款,承諾向台灣提供防禦性武器,並保證在美國法律中給台灣以類似國家的地位。

Stalemate in Hong Kong: Few Buyers, Few Sellers

Hongkong Land

The Sail at Victoria, due for completion at the end of 2009, sits in Kennedy Town at the western edge of Hong Kong Island's crowded north shore.


Published: February 12, 2009

Hong Kongers, who turned pessimistic about property early in 2008, now seem to be at something of a stalemate: Buyers are unwilling to commit unless they see a real steal, and sellers are unwilling to cut prices all that much.

There is reason for their reluctance. People here don't talk about the subprime crisis or the credit crunch. Across the territory, the current economic woes are dubbed the "financial tsunami," sweeping into Asia from the United States and Western Europe.

The term is redolent of the real tsunami that swept Asia at the end of 2004. But it also carries a reminder that Hong Kong has seen its share of crashes: the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and 1998, and the near-meltdown during SARS in 2003.

"The market is very quiet since the Lehman Brothers collapse," said Anita Fan, senior associate director in the investment department at the brokerage DTZ. "It is quiet, but I don't see the price has really dropped a lot."

Residential prices fell 19 percent in the six months through November, according to the most recent data from the Hong Kong University Real Estate Index Series, a drop that is mostly the result of a 10 percent correction in November. Yet there were heady price gains at the start of 2008, so the net result was a one-year decline of just 6.9 percent.

And there still were stories of eye- popping deals. A 3,300-square-foot house at Severn 8, a development on Victoria Peak that has set and reset records for property in Hong Kong, sold in October for 76 million Hong Kong dollars, or $9.8 million — 23,000 dollars, or $2,965, per square foot. A similar house sold at 55,830 dollars per square foot in June.

Severn 8, like most new developments, has attracted speculators. But prices are generally holding up, as shown by a flagship transaction in January. An 11,345- square-foot villa at 85 Repulse Bay Road sold for 445 million dollars, or around 39,000 dollars per square foot.

"There has been the odd distressed sale, but not as many as we expected," said Victoria Allan, managing director of the brokerage Habitat Property. "All the trades we're doing are 30 percent to 40 percent off the peak price. If we can't get down to that, the market will continue to stop."

Many owners are trying to ride the tsunami out. Thanks to the Hong Kong dollar's peg to its U.S. counterpart, mortgage rates are very low.

"In Hong Kong the market is quite volatile, so you maybe need to wait for two or three years, or at most five or six years, and you can get your money back," Fan said.

Hong Kong's banks clamped down on mortgage lending and slashed valuations late in 2008. But they have new mortgage sales quotas for 2009, agents say, and are being realistic about valuations.

The number of residential transactions in December was down 65 percent compared with that month in 2007. So property agents are feeling the real pain, unable to muster much interest in real estate, normally a topic of daily fascination and much speculation in this city of seven million.

They won't find many optimists. In Asia, only 3 percent of respondents to a DTZ survey said they were positive on real estate for the year ahead, while 70 percent were negative and 27 percent expected no change.

"Hardly anybody is optimistic about the outlook for 2009," said Alva To, the company's head of consultancy for North Asia. "Asia-Pacific people have got a good memory. We have been through three cycles."

Recent lending and leverage in Asia were not as feverish as in Europe and the United States. But people there are much more optimistic. Over all, the same study reported, 20 percent of West Europeans were positive about real estate in 2009, while only 40 percent were negative and another 40 percent expected no change. In North America, only 9 percent were optimistic and 39 percent expected further losses, but 52 percent expected no change.

"The reality is, things are much worse in the U.K. and the U.S. than they are here," said Mark Price, DTZ's head of business space for North Asia. "But this survey is based on sentiment and emotion. Perhaps people are more realistic here. In the U.K., anybody under 40 hasn't seen" a real market downturn.

"They are probably not aware of how bad it can get," he added.

There are signs of stirring in Hong Kong's slumbering market. Kerry Properties has sold all 24 apartments it released in the Belgravia, a 29-story building that the Hong Kong-based developer opened in 1989 but refurbished last year.

The apartments are large by Hong Kong standards — 2,390 square feet for a three-bedroom flat and 2,790 square feet for a four-bedroom. The building overlooks Repulse Bay's beach, on the south side of Hong Kong Island, which now rivals Victoria Peak for the most expensive property in Hong Kong.

Kerry has added Sub-Zero refrigerators, Miele wine coolers and ovens, and Poggenpohl kitchen cabinets. According to Colliers, the apartments sold at an average price of 13,803 dollars per square foot. That was the highest price for a primary- market sale at the turn of the year, but at the low end of the range of 13,000 dollars to 15,000 dollars that they were expected to command when the project was announced.

Belgravia's closest price rival among primary sales is The Sail at Victoria. The developer, Hongkong Land, has a good reputation but mainly in offices — it is landlord to large parts of the Central downtown district.

The Sail, due for completion at the end of 2009, sits in Kennedy Town at the western edge of Hong Kong Island's crowded north shore, with unobstructed views of Victoria Harbor — although the 33-story building is just down the road from a public mortuary.

The developer declined to comment on its sales strategy, but of the 20 apartments offered before the Jan. 26 Chinese New Year, 15 sold and, according to Colliers, the price was an average of 9,703 dollars per square foot. That's a little less than the going rate for 10- or 20-year-old apartments in the nearby low-rise neighborhood of Pok Fu Lam.

International Herald Tribune

2009年2月24日 星期二

新加坡經濟 南韓韓元 泰 國衰退 東盟



東盟中日韓擬擴大共同外匯儲備規模
中日韓三國以及東盟十國官員們週日同意將共同外匯儲備規模從800億美元擴大到1,200億美元﹐以保護該地區貨幣應對全球金融危機的衝擊。





新加坡總理李顯龍警告,新加坡經濟今年可能萎縮逾5%,比政府先前的預估更嚴重。新加坡統計局宣布,1月消費者物價指數增幅縮小,顯示通貨膨脹壓力持續放緩,可能促使央行傾向放鬆貨幣政策。 李顯龍在23日播出的電台訪問中說:「如果全球經濟惡化,新加坡經濟可能更糟,成長率甚至可能比負5%還低。」新加坡1月曾兩度下修經濟成長預測,因統計 數據顯示星國經濟去年第四季大幅萎縮,為1976年開始編纂紀錄以來最糟。下修後的2009年預估經濟成長率為負2%至負5%,當局並警告經濟危機可能延 長。 李顯龍說:「經濟成長在未來四、五年間若達2%或3%,就算不錯。若有3%到4%,就很幸運。」他認為接下來經濟成長緩慢期可能持續數年,新加坡應做好準備。 李顯龍22日在新加坡勞資政論壇上指出,新加坡為出口導向型經濟體,但美國經濟病懨懨,歐洲也出問題,而現在寄望中國和印度市場的成長緩和衝擊也不切實際,因為亞洲經濟也在這波危機中受重創。 分析師說,隨著物價漲幅縮小,新加坡央行可能藉放鬆貨幣政策刺激經濟成長。新加坡統計局23日說,1月消費者物價指數(CPI)與去年同期比增加 2.9%,增幅較去年12月的4.3%減緩。住屋支出和食品價格各增7.7%和6.2%,低於去年12月的12.7%和7.8%。 花旗銀行經濟學家鄭基偉(音譯)說:「未來有段時間可能看到消費者物價指數出現月減情況。」他認為,新加坡央行會在4月前採取寬鬆貨幣政策。

南韓當局提高分貝警告,絕對會毫不猶豫動用更多外匯存底阻止韓元貶值,韓元匯價23日應聲走強,中斷過去九個交易日的貶勢,並帶動亞洲貨幣上漲。

南韓當地媒體23日引述央行官員的話報導,南韓準備利用外匯存底支撐韓元,就算這麼做可能使外匯存底降至2,000億美元以下。

南韓財長尹增鉉22日在泰國普吉島受訪時指出,南韓已準備好阻貶韓元,在某些情況下「干預勢在必行」,他不排除動用南韓近2,020億美元的外匯存底遏阻韓元的頹勢,要是美元兌韓元匯價劇烈波動或投機勢力炒作匯率,政府不會坐視不管。

當地一家外匯交易商說,這些話擺明是要警告投資人,首爾當局有足夠的銀彈穩住韓元。受南韓政府矢言捍衛韓元,以及美國政府可能增加對花旗集團持股的消息激 勵,亞洲貨幣23日在韓元的帶領下,幾乎全面走揚。韓元兌美元一度大漲1.93%至1,477.05韓元,高於上周五(20日)的收盤價1,506 韓元;追蹤日本以外亞洲十大交投最熱絡貨幣的彭博摩根大通亞洲美元指數,則從三個月來的谷底向上爬升;馬元出現近四周來最大升幅。

許多分析師相信,南韓龐大的外匯存底、與其他國家的換匯協議,以及政府對銀行債務提供擔保,都有助南韓度過危機,但投資人對韓元還是沒信心。

因為擔心南韓的銀行下個月恐怕無力償還以外幣計價的債務或無法為債務展期,會爆發所謂的「3月危機」,投資人上周大舉拋售韓元,導致韓元逼近逾十年來的最低價。但南韓金融監理委員會(FSC)23日表示,3月危機發生的機率微乎其微,但他們會密切關注事態發展。

南韓政府上周五疑似出脫一小筆美元,以阻止韓元的跌勢。但交易商和分析師說,首爾當局近幾周對於大動作干預匯市持謹慎態度,避免耗盡外匯存底。該國的外匯 存底在去年11月降至2005.1億美元,為2005年1月以來最低。外匯存底在今年1月底時稍微增至2017.4億美元。




2009年2月23日 星期一

bronze animal heads, a rabbit and a rat

Yves Saint Laurent Art Sale’s 1st Night Brings In $264 Million

Jacques Brinon/Associated Press

A 1911 Henri Matisse painting was sold at auction on Monday in Paris for $40.9 million. More Photos >


Published: February 23, 2009

PARIS — Despite the global economic crisis, a lot of money seems to be left over. On Monday, the private collection of Yves Saint Laurent and his partner became the most expensive one ever sold at auction, bringing in more than $264 million on the first night alone.

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Francois Lenoir/Reuters

The Matisse painting was on display earlier in Belgium. More Photos »

The only significant failure in the sale, one of six auctions of the collection being held over three days by Christie’s, was an apparently overpriced Picasso from the artist’s late Cubist period. The auction house pulled the work when bids stopped at 21 million euros ($26 million) on a painting that had been estimated at 25 million to 30 million euros.

But records were set for Matisse, Marcel Duchamp, Constantin Brancusi, James Ensor, Piet Mondrian and Giorgio de Chirico. The Matisse, a colorful painting from 1911 of a vase of cowslips on a carpet, sold for $40.9 million, double its estimate.

The auction unfolded in the cavernous Grand Palais in central Paris, where thousands of visitors lined up for hours over the weekend to get a chance to see the collection in what became a kind of temporary museum. Mr. Saint Laurent is regarded with great affection and awe here as a paragon of French style, and he evokes an era when no country could challenge French prominence in the world of fashion.

The Matisse was believed to have gone to an American, but Christie’s refused to identify the buyer. Few Matisse paintings of quality come on the market, and each of the three Matisse paintings did better than its estimates.

A remarkable painting by Ensor, “The Jealousy of Pierrot,” sold for $5.38 million. Thomas Seydoux, a Christie’s expert in Impressionist and modern art, described it as “the climax of Ensor’s work,” and noted that it last sold in 1987 for $700,000. “Those masterpieces are never on the market,” he said.

The Duchamp, “Beautiful Breath, Eau de Violets,” was a Dada hallmark. Its label depicts the artist dressed as a woman, Rrose Sélavy, a punning alter ego he created in 1920 in a photo taken by Man Ray. It sold for $10.1 million, more than six times the estimate, after a bidding war between two anonymous American collectors. “People had waited a long time for this to go on the market,” Mr. Seydoux said.

Mr. Seydoux accepted some blame for the Picasso’s failure. He said he had based his estimate “on the exceptional quality of that period, but I got carried away.”

Isabelle de Wavrin, deputy editor of BeauxArts magazine, said that while Mr. Saint Laurent loved the Picasso, “Picassos are not rare.”

“But everyone is looking for a good Matisse,” she added.

Jean-Marie Baron, an art dealer who bid on some art but could not afford to go high enough, said the sale suggested that to some extent, “the art market is still good and still strong. Almost everywhere they met the high estimate.”

Pierre Bergé, who was Mr. Saint Laurent’s business and personal partner for many years, said in a brief interview that he was very happy with the results. “But you have to know that I’m very cool about things every day,” he said.

He was more emotional later at a brief news conference. “The day Yves Saint Laurent died, I decided this collection had run its course,” he said. “It was something we created together.” Mr. Saint Laurent died last June at 71.

Mr. Bergé said he explored the possibility of creating a museum for Mr. Saint Laurent’s fashion and art collections but that the project proved too difficult. “Selling it was the only possible solution,” he said.

The proceeds, separate from the commissions that his own company, Pierre Bergé & Associés, will presumably share with Christie’s, are to go to the foundation he established with Mr. Saint Laurent, to various cultural projects, to charity and to found a new research center to combat AIDS. Mr. Bergé said he would keep the Picasso for his foundation.

French museums pre-empted the sale of three works: the record-setting painting by de Chirico, which is thought to be an allegory about the return of Napoleon; “At the Conservatory,” an Ensor satire; and “The Lilacs,” by Édouard Vuillard.

A rare wood Brancusi statue, “Madame L.R.,” originally owned by the artist Fernand Léger, sold for $33.3 million, and it was also a good night for the Mondrian market, with a 1922 composition in white, blue, yellow and black selling for $24.59 million, a record. A monochrome by Mondrian, whose art inspired one of Mr. Laurent’s best-known collections, sold for more than $16.4 million.

The final prices include taxes and the commission paid to the auction house: 25 percent, excluding tax of the first $26,000; 20 percent, excluding tax from that amount up to $1.03 million; and 12 percent excluding tax on the rest. Presale estimates do not reflect commissions.

More than 1,200 buyers, dealers, collectors and wealthy art lovers were in their seats as Christie’s staff members took bids from those abroad on 100 telephone lines. Most of the buyers were said to be American and European.

The sale has five other portions over the next few days, including furniture, silver and Asian art. A dispute has unfolded over two Qing dynasty bronze animal heads, a rabbit and a rat, originally looted from an imperial palace in China but purchased legally. China has demanded their return, but a French court ruled Monday evening that the auction of the heads can proceed as scheduled on Wednesday.

The issue has become a heated one in China, stirring nationalist indignation. Mr. Bergé countered that the heads belonged to him, saying he would give them to China if Beijing would “observe human rights and give liberty to the Tibetan people and welcome the Dalai Lama.”

A Christie’s official then hastened to emphasize that while Mr. Bergé was entitled to his opinion, the auction house had the greatest respect for China and Chinese art. Mr. Bergé, 79, said: “They are my heads. I own them and I said what I meant.”

Before the sale, President Nicolas Sarkozy toured the auction offerings, and accepted from Mr. Bergé a legacy to France from Mr. Saint Laurent: a 1791 portrait of a child by Goya.

Maïa de la Baume contributed reporting.

Chen blames Beijing for his arrest台灣前總統陳水扁出庭受審


台灣前總統陳水扁出庭受審
林楠森
BBC中文網駐台北特約記者

陳水扁步出台北土城看守所(19/1/2009)
陳水扁出庭受審批評檢察官和法官

台灣前總統陳水扁就被指控的一系列罪名出庭受審,在法庭表示萬念俱灰,並批判此案的司法人員介入政治。

絕食多日的陳水扁在周一妻子吳淑珍探監時的勸告下恢復進食,他在法庭上顯得虛弱,法院一度休庭讓他休息。

陳水扁在休息過後於法庭上親自辯護,他質疑法官與檢察官如果要把他關到死才甘心,那麼不用浪費時間與司法資源。

他表示檢方與法官非要聯手把他逼到死路他也認了,心情萬念俱灰,法官蔡守訓在聽到"認"字後問他是否要認罪,陳水扁回答說法官不必明知故問,這並非認罪。

陳水扁質疑蔡守訓此前審判馬英九在台北市長特別費案時,引用宋代"公使錢"來為馬脫罪,而現在對他的審判標準不同。

蔡守訓稱法官一定公平審理,但陳水扁表示那是蔡守訓自己說的,他並不相信。

陳水扁此前在台北地方法院抽簽決定的審判法官將他無保釋放,但法院以改派方式更換法官蔡守訓作為審判長,並在去年底裁定二度關押陳水扁迄今。

批判檢察官

陳水扁在法庭上也批判偵辦他的特偵組檢察官介入政治,並且舉出一些例子說明此一情況。

他說檢察官吳文忠在2008年總統選舉期間,曾經介入壓下一起可能不利於馬英九的光盤爆料。

他並表示,另一名檢察官朱朝亮在搜索他的住宅時對他說前總統李登輝與其領導的台聯黨收了中共二至三億台幣,並曾用人頭洗錢。

他並表示朱朝亮曾要他支持蔡英文擔任民進黨主席,陳水扁質疑這名檢察官有證據不辦案,並質疑其為何要介入民進黨政治事務。

朱朝亮與吳文忠此前偵辦陳水扁期間,在一場佛教法會上與當時尚未卸任的陳水扁會面,三人會面的照片流出時一度引起側目與批評。

陳水扁在法庭上還說,另一名檢察官越方如在他卸任總統前通過民進黨主席蔡英文,要求他特赦因馬英九市長特別費案的而被判刑的台北市府官員餘文。

他說當時因種種原因無法特赦餘文,並懷疑這可能導致其後特偵組檢察官的挾怨報復。


前總統陳水扁上午為龍潭案出庭時,從司法議題跳到政治議題,並大爆料,他並舉2008選舉過程某些事情,談到總統馬英九的問題,同時,扁並大爆3名特偵組檢察官的料,指朱朝亮、吳文忠、越方如都不好好辦案,全都介入政治事務。

對於陳水扁的指控,特偵組中午回應,陳水扁沒有根據,無的放矢,希望他能回歸審判路,為自己及家人的官司奮鬥,不要再扯其他無聊的事。

陳水扁的指控中,以暗指馬英九的事最為勁爆,他在法庭中當眾聲稱2008總統大選投票的最後幾天,當時國民黨立委兼秘書長吳敦義頻頻對外打預防針,指如果有人聽到馬英九和外國人或是黑人怎麼樣的親密關係,不要覺得很奇怪。

扁接著說,當時檢察官吳文忠向馬英九陣營通報,指綠營會拿到馬英九和一位黑人藝人「巧克力」 (涉性病被遣返,扁案關係人張瑋津前夫)的光碟,並在謝長廷陣營爆料,後來吳文忠將光碟攔下,稱吳文忠介入政治。

扁又爆料指出,特偵組辦扁案時,朱朝亮有一次告訴他,務必支持蔡英文選黨主席,「是在苗栗辦法會時說的」,偵查中,朱還向民進黨黨中央傳話,要求民進黨全黨和他切割,事後果然民進黨選擇孤立他,「民進黨真的這樣做了!」,他表示,這是朱朝亮應有的做法嗎?

扁另爆料越方如也介入政治。他說,有一天晚上,蔡英文坐高鐵來找他,當時越方如正在偵辦綠營首長特別費案,越透過蔡英文和他商量,說同情因馬英九特別費案 被判刑確定的前市府專員余文,要求特赦,指馬英九不會特赦余文,但他後來因故沒有同意特赦,結果偵查的結果,蔡英文獲得不起訴,越方如則起訴了其他5位綠 營首長。

【2009/02/24 聯合晚報】



采訪

chen
陳水扁在去年11月受到拘押
《金融時報》記者在台北的一所監獄采訪了正在受到關押的台灣前總統陳水扁,并且表示這是陳水扁被關押以來首次接受媒體采訪。

《金融時報》的報道說,陳水扁在接受采訪時身邊有獄警監視。

陳水扁說,他妻子向國外匯錢,他不知道。他沒有管好家人,對此需要承擔道義和政治上的責任。

但是他說,對他的審判是政治性的。即便他被定罪,別人也會繼續為台灣的獨立和民主而努力。


Chen blames Beijing for his arrest

By Robin Kwong in Taipei

Published: February 23 2009 02:00 | Last updated: February 23 2009 02:00

Chen Shui-bian, the former Taiwan president in detention in the island's biggest corruption case, has admitted to not properly managing his family's finances, but maintained he was not corrupt and that his prosecution has been politically motivated.

"My wife wired money abroad without my know-ledge," Mr Chen told the Financial Times from the prison where he is being held in solitary confinement. "That was certainly wrong. I didn't manage my family well and for that I have to take moral and political responsibility."

Dressed in a greyuniform and watched closely by a prison guard, Mr Chen, in his first remarks to the media since his indictment in December, said his arrest and trial was prompted by Beijing's hatred of him.

Outside the visitors' room, in the middle of the prison courtyard, a large stone sign was painted with the Chinese words: "Within the law, everyone is free." Mr Chen's case has raised questions of judicial independence and fairness in Taiwan. Mr Chen, who practised law before entering politics, said: "I respect the judicial process, but I don't believe in it. I am even disappointed in it."

He and his family are accused of taking millions in illicit money - through embezzling a special state fund and accepting bribes from prominent businessmen - and laundering it abroad during his eight years in office.

Mr Chen's wife and son have in recent weeks pleaded guilty to charges including money laundering, but members of the Chen family deny corruption charges. The former cashier in Mr Chen's presidential office this week pleaded guilty to graft, dealing a further blow to the former president's case.

Details of Mr Chen's arrest, indictment and trial have dominated daily conversation among the Taiwanese, and his prison diaries, published last month, are on many local bestseller lists. For many, his image as a champion of democracy and Taiwanese identity has been badly tarnished.

"In the short term, my situation is a setback to the Taiwan independence movement, but it does not affect the long-term move towards that goal," Mr Chen said.

He added that even if he was convicted, others would take up the fight. "No one is irreplaceable. Taiwan independence and its democratisation are inevitable paths."

Mr Chen's thinly veiled agenda of promoting independence riled Beijing, which is watching his trial closely. While the communist government has never ruled Taiwan, it claims sovereignty over the island and backs the claim with the threat of military force.

"Everyone knows that this is 100 per cent a political case," Mr Chen said. "Since this is a political case, it's subject to the rise and fall of politics. It's not like I've never been detained before. I was locked up here for eight months," he said, referring to a spell during Taiwan's martial law period in the early 1980s.

If found guilty he could spend the rest of his life in prison. On Friday, Mr Chen began a second hunger strike against what he claimed was misconduct by prosecutors in handling his case.

Editorial Comment, Page 10


惊叹中国“躲猫猫”致死事件

德语媒体 | 2009.02.23

德媒惊叹中国“躲猫猫”致死事件

继健身项目"俯卧撑"有了新的解释之后,中国的传统儿童游戏"躲猫猫"也与时俱进、风靡互联网网络。这里说的是云南青年李乔明因涉嫌偷盗木材被警方审查、 其间突然死亡的事件。警方的解释是,李乔明在看守所与另一名受审查人员玩"躲猫猫"时不慎撞墙重伤而亡。连《南德意志报》都认为,这样的解释未免太神奇 了:

"在中国,警察的残暴人所共知。许多人猜测,像以前许多可怜的囚犯一样,警察在审讯李乔明时把他打成半死,导致他最后死于医院。但这些人都 不愿明确、更不敢公开谈论此事,直接批评共产党领导人和这个警察国家使用的手法仍然很危险。但匿名把辛辣的评论送上互联网,就不那么容易受到惩罚。有人写 道:'躲猫猫这种游戏很好玩,但在某些地方,如监狱、劳教所和看守所,还是很有危险。'

去年十一月,联合国反酷刑委员会刚刚批评了中国警方普遍对被拘留的涉嫌人使用酷刑和进行虐待,经常刑讯逼供。中国最高检察院副检察长王振川两年前公开承认,'过去几年,几乎每个错误判决都来自非法审讯'。

'中国人权组织'以政治犯郭飞雄为例做了具体说明。他因准备在法庭上为受政治迫害的人士辩护,被投入监狱。在看守所的15个月中,'他被捆绑手脚吊在天花板上,警察用高压电棍电击他的生殖器','中国人权组织'这样报道说。"

西藏正展开“严打”

"在西藏和藏区,在离那里的人民起义五十周年还有三周之际,形势显然很紧张"。《法兰克福汇报》以这句话为开场白谈到了西藏正在开展的"严打"运动:

"据当地报纸报道,在这场名义上针对刑事犯罪的运动中,拉萨当局1月18日以来,在'严打'的口号下已逮捕了81人,'仔细审查'了5766人。大搜查时,警方检查了许多酒店、宾馆和网吧。其间,有两人因'发表反动言论'和用手机下载'反动歌曲' 被捕。

流亡藏人组织认为,这场运动是为了恐吓藏人、防止发生起义。同时,显然继续有人因一年前参与拉萨骚乱被送上法庭。西藏地方人大委员会副主任尼玛次仁 上周宣布,一共有76人受到判决。但流亡藏人声称,实际数字要高得多,此外有许多藏人没有经法庭审理就被关押,许多人受到酷刑。

国家的报刊和地方干部又开始对达赖喇嘛及其'集团'进行口诛笔伐,号召维护西藏的稳定。一名干部要求藏族宗教领导人保护国家和民族的统一。"

本文摘自或节译自其它媒体

不代表德国之声观点

India Celebrates a Hollywood Victory

India Celebrates a Hollywood Victory

European Pressphoto Agency

The friends and neighbors of "Slumdog Millionaire" child actor Mohammed Azharuddin Ismail cheer while watching the Oscars award ceremony on television outside his shanty, in Mumbai, India. More Photos >


Published: February 23, 2009

NEW DELHI — Its depictions of filth and brutality fueled angry blogging and stray street protests. It drew unusually intense scrutiny, for everything from how much its child actors were paid to what the composer A. R. Rahman would wear to the Oscars. But on Monday, as India woke up to news of the spectacular wins by “Slumdog Millionaire” at the Academy Awards, this movie-mad country went “Jai Ho.”

The movie’s victory was embraced as India’s own.

“What a day it has been for India!” gushed a television news anchor midmorning. The story dominated television news throughout the day. News of a hepatitis B outbreak in western Gujarat State and a southern politician’s threatened hunger strike seemed minor by comparison.

“We rocked the world,” an Indian percussionist named Sivamani declared.

Never mind that “Slumdog” tells a story of stunted, shafted slum children, precisely the kind of story promoters of the New India have sought to obscure with tales of prosperity. India seized on its Oscar wins as a sign of its arrival on the world stage.

Indian television showed Indian dancers in spangly skirts onstage at the Kodak Theater in Los Angeles and Mr. Rahman, eyes closed, singing his winning song, “Jai Ho” — its title an exuberant Hindi phrase that literally translates as “Let there be victory.” Mr. Rahman thanked God and his mother. Resul Pookutty, who shared the prize for sound mixing, dedicated it to his country. In his small town in south India, neighbors and kin were shown passing a big plate of sweets and crying tears of joy.

“India has made a clean sweep here,” Anil Kapoor, the Indian actor who played the game-show host in “Slumdog,” declared in an interview with NDTV, a private television station.

On Monday even the prime minister of India, Manmohan Singh, congratulated the “Slumdog” team, along with the makers of another winning film, “Smile Pinki,” a short documentary about a village girl with a cleft palate. “The winners have done India proud,” Mr. Singh’s office said in a statement.

The last time an Indian won an Oscar was for the costume design of the 1982 biographical film “Gandhi,” directed by Richard Attenborough. Many Indians were peeved at the time that a known Indian actor had not been cast to play the father of their nation. Ben Kingsley, who played Gandhi, is of partly Indian descent. (In 1992 the Indian director Satyajit Ray was awarded the Oscar for lifetime achievement.)

“Slumdog,” of course, is not an Indian film. It was backed by two American studios. The director, Danny Boyle, is British, as are its screenwriter, who adapted the script from a book by an Indian diplomat, and its producer.

But “Slumdog” has an almost entirely Indian cast, along with a British actor of Indian descent, Dev Patel, who plays the teenage lead, Jamal. It was shot on the streets of Mumbai, unlike most Indian films. And about a third of the dialogue is in Hindi.

It has several key Indian crew members, including the co-director, Loveleen Tandan, and of course Mr. Rahman, whose compositions weave sounds from all over the world with a deeply Indian sensibility.

Most important, “Slumdog” picks up on key motifs of the classic Bollywood fairy tale: the plucky underdog hero, sibling rivalry, ghetto gangsters and a beautiful damsel needing a rescue.

Small bursts of outrage greeted the film when it opened in India recently, including a protest several weeks ago in front of Mr. Kapoor’s house, where children held up placards that read “Don’t call me dog.” In the current issue of India Today, a weekly magazine, a filmmaker named Priyadarshan called it “absolute and intentional exploitation of India.”

But the newspaper columnist Vir Sanghvi, writing in his blog on Monday, said he was “thrilled” by the film’s victory and the sight of so many Indians onstage at the Academy Awards. “Even when ‘Gandhi’ won the Oscar for best picture all those years ago, we never felt that it was India’s victory,” he wrote. “I don’t know if this is a breakthrough for India, or whether we will be able to follow it up. But some things seem clear. Anil Kapoor is now the world’s most famous Bollywood actor — and it couldn’t happen to a nicer guy. Nobody will be able to talk about world music without including Rahman as its leading star.”

A more sobering response came on Monday from Dilbur Parakh, who heads a charity-run school where two of the film’s youngest stars, Azharuddin Mohammed Ismail, 10, and Rubina Ali Qureshi, 9, are enrolled. The children still live in a sprawling shantytown whose name, Garib Nagar, literally means the enclave of the poor. The filmmakers pay their school fees.

To Ms. Parakh, the story of “Slumdog” echoed the stories of hundreds of Indian children she had met. “This is the way it really is,” she said. “We can’t ignore it. We have to face it. I mean Indians as a whole.”

That a Briton made the film did not much matter to her. “It really is an Indian story,” said Ms. Parakh, who is also the chairwoman of Aseema, the nonprofit organization in Mumbai that runs the school.

Munni Qureishi, 28, Rubina’s mother, said the people of Garib Nagar had stayed up much of the night in anticipation, then greeted the victory on Monday morning with firecrackers and boisterous handmade drums. Mrs. Qureishi, who has worked as a housemaid since childhood, said she looked forward to welcoming her daughter home with flowers and her favorite food: Chinese-style noodles.

“She has crossed the ocean,” Mrs. Qureishi said. “With God’s blessing she will return.”

Hari Kumar contributed reporting from Noida, India.

2009年2月22日 星期日

Taiwan as Number One

這統計的問題是 沒說那年的紀錄


臺灣的世界第一

01台灣摩托車密度為世界第一,台灣有2300萬人口,
摩托車的數量竟超過了1400
萬輛。
02台灣人近視率高達42%,是世界第一。
03台灣便利商店密度為世界第一,全台已有9000多家便利商店。
04台北101落成後,成為世界最高的建築物,電梯從5樓? ?! SPAN lang=EN-US>89樓僅
花費37秒,更是創下世界最快電梯紀錄。
05台灣是世界上手機持有率最高的地區。
06台灣的大專院校密度,世界第一,全台共有133間大專院校。
07台北的秀朗國小是全世界最大的小學。
08台北縣的永和市是全世界人口密度最高的一個區域。
09違規駕駛罰單世界第一。
10台灣核電廠的密度名列世界第一,已有三座核電廠,第四座興建中。

(11)台灣人民平均工作時數為世界第一。
(12)寬頻網路技術為世界第一。
(13)台灣有世界第一的軍公教福利制度。
(14)台灣共有37項世界第一的產品,分別是主機板、監視器、晶圓代工、掃瞄器、數據
機、繪圖卡、網路卡、集線器、機殼、鍵盤、光碟片、滑鼠、SPS、ABS樹脂、P
U、PUC、PPE、人造纖維絲織布、人造纖維加工絲、運動鞋、味精、太陽眼鏡、
西洋鼓、聖誕燈串、自行車、自行車鏈條、帽子、雨傘、用餐桌椅、雨衣、電動小馬
達、縫? 鷑! 驉B蝴蝶蘭、卡通動畫、煎烤器、吉他與義肢。
(15)全世界第一家24四小時不打庠書店~台北誠品書店。
(16)台灣的白金卡普及率,世界第一。
(1 7 )偽造信用卡技術更是傲視全球。
(18)新生兒由外國籍母親所生的比例為世界第一(約20%)。
(19)台灣綠島---活體珊瑚已達一千二百歲,學者認定為世界第一。
(20)「威爾鋼」使用率世界第一。

(21)全世界最大的紅樹林保護區是台北的竹圍紅樹林保護區,面積約 7 6公頃。
(22)世界最貴的捷運系統。
(23)台南縣曾文溪口為現今全世界最大之黑面琵鷺的棲息處。
(24)世界第一座螃蟹博物館(北關生態農場)。
(25)台灣冷杉、台灣黑熊、冠羽畫眉、櫻花鉤吻鮭及莫氏樹蛙分別是世界上特有的植
物、哺乳類、鳥類、魚類及兩棲類。
(26)螢光基因魚轉殖技術研究,是近年全球熱門的議題之一。台灣在? 穧! ]魚方面的
研究,已登上全球領先的地位。

(2 7 )台南縣鹽水蜂砲以長達 13公里的火龍傳奇」,創下不間斷鞭炮的世界紀錄。
(28)台北市立動物園亞洲象林旺病逝,享年86歲,創下世界上在圈養狀況下最長壽大象
紀錄。
(29)台灣人的腎臟病發生率高居世界第一。
(30)台灣濫用抗生素世界第一。

(31)台灣的高山密度世界第一。
(32)台灣的蝴蝶密度世界第一。
(33)健保藥費支出世界第一高。
(34)台灣河川中的重金屬濃度世界第一。
(35)台灣國中生的化學程度高居世界第一。
(36)台中大坑的麒麟峰溫泉為世界第一碳酸泉。
(3 7 )「車床族」比率「世界第一」。
(38)石斑魚產值及產量位居世界第一。
(39)電子化政府全世界第一。
(40)台北市的無線網域服務為全世界第一。

(41)台灣人對政治的狂熱世界第一。
(42)台灣的消費行為對地球環境造成的壓力是全球人平均的3.42倍,竟然排名世界第
一。
(43)台灣紡織業,多項細目產品是世界第一。
(44)鐵窗鐵架在全世界住宅中裝設最多。
(45)台灣剖腹產率世界第一。
(46)砂石車撞死人的比率世界第一。(4 7 )台灣夜市數量與密度為世界第一。
(48)地震測報速度世界第一。
(49)台灣有六座國家公園,國家公園密度,世界第一。
(50)台灣櫻花鉤吻鮭,是冰河時期的活化石。

Australia, Brma, China

Burma releases over a dozen political prisoners
Burmese activists say more than a dozen political detainees have been released by the country's military regime as part of a general amnesty. The regime announced the release of over 6,000 inmates on Friday after the United Nations human rights rapporteur ended a five-day visit, which included meetings with a handful of political prisoners. Burmese activists said five Buddhist monks were among those freed, as well as six people affiliated with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy, among other groups.

Chinese mine blast kills dozens
Chinese state media report that a gas explosion in a coal mine has killed at least 73 people and left another 65 trapped. Over a hundred casualties are being treated in hospital. The blast happened in the country's north, near Taiyuan, the provincial capital of Shanxi province. China's mining industry is the deadliest in the world, around 3,200 people died in mine accidents last year.



Australia mourns bushfire victims
Australians are holding a national day of mourning for the 209 people killed by wildfires earlier this month. Prime Minister Kevin Rudd was joined by Britain's Princess Anne at the main ceremony in Melbourne, the state capital of Victoria, which was so badly hit by the fires. Addressing a 15,000-capacity stadium, in a nationally televised event, Rudd promised to help rebuild communities in which some 1,800 homes were destroyed. He also pledged that Australia would fly flags at half mast every February 7 to remember the victims of the so-called "Black Saturday" bushfires.

reviving Cambodia's ancient musical traditions

World in Progress | 23.02.2009 | 04:30

Reviving Cambodia's Ancient Arts

Kong Nay is known as the Ray Charles of Cambodia. The musician is part of a movement to save Cambodia's ancient arts.

In Cambodia, a few days ago the first trial against former members of the Khmer Rouge regime started. The Khmer Rouge was responsible for more than a million deaths between 1975 and 1979. People were systematically killed, including intellectuals, artists and 90 percent of all musicians in the country. With them died their skills and knowledge. That´s why today, traditional music is under threat, and people like Kong Nay are so important. The 61-year-old is a master of the Chapei, a long necked guitar with two strings. It's an ancient instrument that is thought to have arrived in Cambodia two thousand years ago.

Report: Rebecca Henschke


中國的總體煤礦安全記錄/ 希拉里訪華大談經濟 避談人權

新華社報導﹐山西屯蘭煤礦週日發生瓦斯爆炸事故﹐至少有74名礦工遇難﹐另有數十人被困。

中國的煤礦是世界上最危險的﹐每年有3,000多人死於礦井火災、水災和爆炸事故。新華社報導稱﹐週日凌晨﹐位於太原附近古交市的屯蘭煤礦發生爆炸﹐事故發生時﹐井下當班工人共有436人。報導稱﹐該礦的設施在中國屬於先進行列﹐過去5年都沒有報告過重大事故。

新華社稱﹐有114名傷員在醫院接受觀察、治療﹐其中6人傷勢嚴重。報導援引搶險救援指揮部的話說﹐截至週日晚間18時﹐被困礦工全部被找到﹐井下搜救工作結束。報導沒有提供更多的細節。

新華社援引附近一家醫院醫生的話說﹐大部分傷員都是一氧化碳中毒。

國家安全生產監督管理局一位不願具名的當值官員張女士說﹐爆炸原因仍在調查之中。

根據國家安全生產監督管理總局的數據﹐這起煤礦爆炸事故是2007年12月以來遇難人數最多的一起﹐當時山西臨汾的一個煤礦發生瓦斯爆炸﹐導致105名礦工遇難。事故是由通風不良的坑道中瓦斯積聚造成的。

新華社報導稱﹐國家主席胡錦濤和國務院總理溫家寶早些時候要求千方百計搶救被困人員。報導稱﹐約有80位救援人員參與了行動。

屯蘭煤礦每年生產500萬噸焦煤﹐由中國最大的焦煤生產商山西焦煤集團所有。這個集團運營著28個煤礦。焦煤被用於鋼鐵生產。

中國政府多年來都在承諾要提高煤礦安全﹐然而﹐迫切需要能源的中國依靠煤炭來提供大部分電力。去年中國關閉了約1,000多個危險的小煤礦﹐不過中國的礦業仍然是世界上最不安全的。去年煤礦事故導致約3,200人遇難﹐較2007年減少了15%。

中國的總體煤礦安全記錄很糟糕﹐傷亡數據又掩蓋了巨大的差距。大型國有煤礦的安全記錄往往與發達國家接近﹐而較小的煤礦只有很少甚至沒有安全設備﹐工人的培訓也很薄弱。

政府的數據顯示﹐中國1.6萬個煤礦中幾乎有八成都是小型非法煤礦。

本文譯自美聯社(Associated Press)




希拉里訪華大談經濟 避談人權
2009年02月23日10:34



國國務卿克林頓•希拉里(Hillary Clinton)結束了她的首次訪華外交使命。此次訪京希拉里淡化了雙方在人權問題上的分歧﹐鋪陳了美中關係的遠景構想﹐即兩國優先考慮在金融危機和全球氣候變暖問題上的合作。

希拉里週日結束了為期一週的亞洲四國之行﹐她著力向中國公眾闡述了美中經濟“相互交織”的性質。

希拉里在接受中國東方衛視《楊瀾訪談錄》的專訪時說﹐如果我們不能推動經濟的前進﹐這將不符合中國的利益。
希拉里指出﹐美國正在為經濟刺激方案籌措更多資金﹐
她高度評價了中國繼續購買美國國債。目前中國是持有美國國債最多的國家。

她說﹐通過繼續購買美國國債﹐中國方面認識到雙方利益攸關。我們的確是榮辱與共。

當天早些時候﹐希拉里到北京海澱基督教堂做了禮拜﹐並同22名中國知名的女性學者、高管及媒體名人進行了座談。她詢問了在男女平等方面取得的進步﹐以及中國女性仍面臨的困難。

但希拉里在週日與婦女界代表進行的一小時會談中根本沒有提及人權問題﹐訪問過程中也儘量避免在公共場合談論敏感問題。而1995年她以美國第一夫人身份參加在北京舉行的世界婦女大會時曾因猛烈抨擊中國的人權紀錄而觸怒了中國政府。

希拉里不久前曾表示﹐她不會在訪華期間將重點放在人權和西藏等問題上。上週五她對記者說﹐這樣做可能會破壞為應對全球經濟危機而付出的努力。

希拉里說﹐我們必須在人權問題上繼續向他們施壓。但我們在這些問題上的行動不能干擾解決全球經濟危機、全球氣候變化危機以及安全危機。我們之間的對話必須以推動彼此的理解與合作為目的。

這樣的表態令人權組織感到憤怒。人權觀察(Human Rights Watch)在聲明中說﹐這種講話向中國政府傳遞了錯誤的信息﹐中國以往在人權上的進步部分就來自於外部壓力。

在上週六同中國高層領導人會談時﹐希拉里重點關注的是經濟﹐還有重要的安全和環境問題。她說﹐中國外交部長楊潔篪3月初將訪問華盛頓﹐以在4月份的倫敦20國峰會前幫助協調美中應對經濟衰退的行動。

希拉里和楊潔篪在聯合記者會上都承認兩國經濟相互依賴﹐但楊潔篪沒有就中國未來對美國國債的投資政策做出任何承諾。

楊潔篪說﹐中方希望確保其外匯儲備的“安全、保值和流動”﹐並將根據這些原則決定今後使用外匯資產的方式方法。

華盛頓和北京將推進布什政府任內兩國定期舉行高級別會談、討論重要經濟和戰略問題的做法。具體的會談結構將在美國總統奧巴馬在20國會議期間會見中國國家主席胡錦濤時宣佈。希拉里說﹐她和美國財政部長蓋特納(Timothy Geithner)將參加對話。

蓋特納今年1月份時曾因指責中國“操縱”人民幣匯率而令中方官員感到不滿。外界普遍認為﹐這番講話是美國指責中國人為壓低人民幣匯率以增加出口的調門有所升級。

除了經濟之外﹐希拉里北京之行的另一個重頭戲是與中國領導人協調應對所面臨的環境挑戰。她已經任命托德•斯特恩(Todd Stern)擔任氣候變化問題特使﹐兩人訪問了太陽宮熱電廠。這個燃氣熱電廠是美國通用電氣公司(General Electric Co.)與中國政府合作建設的﹐設計目標之一就是減少排放量和水的消耗。

希拉里在工廠發表講話說﹐我們在這裡看到的是雙方深入的合作﹐我們對這種做法必須大加鼓勵。

在與胡錦濤主席和溫家寶總理會談時﹐希拉里談及了一系列的安全問題﹐包括朝鮮、伊朗、緬甸和津巴布韋。

據美國一位高級官員說﹐希拉里要求中國減少在伊朗的石油和天然氣投資﹐以迫使伊朗放棄其核計劃。他說﹐中國領導人沒有做出同意美方要求的表示。他說﹐楊潔篪表示﹐這些投資並不違反聯合國對伊朗實施的制裁。

在人民大會堂舉行的會談中﹐胡錦濤主席高度讚賞希拉里將亞洲作為她海外之行的第一站。

胡錦濤說﹐這顯示出美國新政府十分重視發展同亞洲和中國的關係。他對此高度讚賞。他相信希拉里國務卿在任期內會對美中關係的發展作出積極的貢獻。

Jay Solomon

2009年2月20日 星期五

打压 忆通律师事务

时事风云 | 2009.02.20

忆通律师事务所受到停业整顿处罚

2月17日,北京忆通律师事务所收到了海淀区司法局发出的拟定给予该律师事务所停业整顿六个月行政处罚的告知书。该律师事务所的刘晓原表示,虽然司法局提 出的处罚原因表面是因忆通律师事务所为"尚未取得律师执业证的人员违法执业提供便利",实际上则是对多年来代理过多起敏感案件,并且在要求北京律师协会? 直选问题上扮演了重要角色的该律师事务所进行打压。忆通律师事务所已经按照有关规定,于2月19日提出了要求举行听证的申请。

陈光诚案,胡佳案,公民维权案,北京忆 通律师事务所多年来一直在积极代理一些敏感的案件,也曾受到过警告的处分。但这一次,司法局看来是要真正给点"颜色"看看了。拟定予以北京忆通律师事务所 停业整顿六个月行政处罚的直接原因据称是该律师事务所让没有律师执照的李苏滨执业。

但刘晓原指出:"我查了相关的以前律师受处罚的 相同的事情,以前也有这样的人,这样的律所聘用的人员当时没有执业证就出庭了,他们是会给处罚的。一般是给予警告或者是罚点款,但是这一次对我们的处罚是 最重的。因为这种行为如果构成违法的话,处罚是四个档次的。第一个档次是警告,第二个档次是罚款,第三个是停业整顿三个月,第四个是停业整顿六个月。我们 就感觉这不仅仅是李苏滨的问题了。对吧?因为仅仅是因为李苏滨,给的处罚怎么会这么重呢?"

李苏滨多年前曾经是一名合法律师,但由于参加了 状告河南省司法厅违法收取律师注册费的诉讼而被当地司法局禁止继续执业。刘晓原说:"我始终认为当年剥夺他的执业权就是违法的。因为他起诉当地司法局,当 地司法局就不给他年检注册,不给他恢复职业,这本身就是违法的。李苏滨的执业问题曾经引起过全国律师协会的关注,表示要给他解决这个问题。为什么一直不解 决?主要原因可能是李苏滨不停在和司法局打官司,讨说法。"

刘晓原讲述说,李苏滨离开河南来到北京后,先是 在忆通律师事务所做一名行政方面的工作人员:"直到2008年初,李劲松带着李苏滨可能代理过一个业主起诉物业的案件。当时这个案件是在昌平法院开庭。他 们认为昌平法院在审理这个案件中存在一些违法行为,因此向上级法院投诉了昌平法院。由于李苏滨没有执业证,它认为我们所让他和律师一起办案违反了规定。昌 平法院因此向北京律师协会投诉我们所。北京市律协进行了查处,给我们所里一个公开谴责的处分,给李劲松律师通报批评。当时他们还建议司法部门给我们进行行 政处罚。"

不过,后来司法处罚的决定并没有下达。

"但是到了下半年以后,原来在我所工作的律师程海,还有工作人员李苏滨他们要求律师直选,发出了呼吁,这个倡议得到了其他律师的响应,最后这个事影响很大。司法部门当然对这种事感觉很不满意......"

在收到"司法行政机关行政处罚案件当事人听证权 利告知书"后,忆通律师事务所立即提出了听证申请。但刘晓原律师并不对听证会将做出减轻处罚的决定抱有太大的希望:"不管怎么样,我们肯定会依照法律的规 定来维护我们自身的合法权利。即使听证会以后,即使作出了决定,我们很可能也要依照行政诉讼法的规定向法院提起诉讼,让法院来做最后裁定。"


傅悦

2009年2月18日 星期三

美國重視南亞 中共“一号文件”; 中越战争三十周年

Hillary Clinton said the Obama administration would deepen relations with Indonesia as part of a broader push to reinvigorate ties with the Islamic world and Southeast Asia.

亞洲今年約一億人失業

Chinese security officers monitored a group of monks last week at a temple in Lhasa, Tibet. Some Tibetans have called for a boycott of holiday festivities next week.
Kyodo News, via Associated Press

China Adds to Security Forces in Tibet

Chinese security officers monitored a group of monks at a temple in Lhasa, Tibet. Officials have significantly increased forces across the country in the face of a movement to boycott Tibetan New Year festivities.

德语媒体 | 2009.02.18

析中共“一号文件”:农村事关中国安全

中共中央和中国国务院春节后发布了"一号文件",中心议题是全球金融危机对中国农民的影响。《法兰克福汇报》认为,"中国政府并非把这一话题仅仅视为经济问题"。该报观察了中国高层改造社会结构提高农民工地位的设想。德国之声摘译如下。

《法兰克福汇报》写道:

"这份文件含有28个要点,它把因外国需求减少而失业返回农村的约两千万农民工与国家安全直接联系起来。文件指示地方政府要尽力防止紧张形势升级。同一天,胡锦涛主席要求解放军高级指挥员,面对可能出现的冲突,要遵守纪律,密切注视形势发展。

“与官方统计的每年8万起'群体性事件'相比,政府预见的景象显然潜伏更大暴力、威胁也更为严重。过去,动乱仅局限于地方,大多因地方干部胡作非为 所引起,主要涉及拆迁和未给予补偿等问题。至今还没有发生因贫困和绝望揭竿而起的事件,但现在看来,政府认为存在这样的可能性。"

文章回顾中国的历史时指出,中国历朝历代一向把农民满意与否视为政治合法性的标准。所以,"一号文件"的关键在于安抚农民。文章分析了中国农民的现状:

"据国家农业调研中心估计,农村百分之四十的收入来自在城市工地和工厂打工的群体。这些年,有他们打工,农村人均年收入才上升到4700元人民币。 但是,许多农民和现在返乡的农民工不再拥有原来维持生计的手段,他们自愿或不自愿地把土地转给了房地产开发商,自己却往往得不到足够的补偿。这样就形成了 一个庞大的无产阶级,他们真正一无所有:没有土地、没有国家保障、没有私人保险、没有工作。

“农民工的形成一开始就是棘手的权宜之计。为农民设计的这一角色有一个前提,那就是外国必须保持稳定的需求。今天看来,中国过分相信世界经济能长期有效地运转下去。"

《法兰克福汇报》的文章注意到,中国高级政府官员正在考虑改革中国的社会结构,使农民工在自己工作的城市获得社会地位。文章最后写道:

"如果确实贯彻这样的改革,中国面临的变革不会小于九十年代大多数国有企业私营化时的变革。整个经济水平会一下子得到提升,更高的社会保障和更好的 教育将要求提高税收和工资水平。对于外国买主来说,这意味着必须为更高价值的产品支付更高的价格。这包含着风险,因为中国作为廉价生产国的熟悉角色将发生 变化,结果如何很难说。不过,全球危机可能促使这样的突然飞跃。不管怎样说,中国农民的处境将再次引发巨大的变化,但这一次将影响整个世界。"

本文摘自或节译自其它媒体

不代表德国之声观点


时事风云 | 2009.02.18

中越战争三十周年再访香港专家杨达

1979年2月17日,中国军队动用20万兵力攻入越南北部边境,开始了中越战争。在双方都付出重大人员伤亡的代价后,中国在1个月内撤出了越南。时隔 30年,国际政治格局发生重大改变,中国与越南这两个迄今仍然挂着社会主义标签的邻邦也在继续致力于克服障碍,发展友好的双边关系。中越战争25周年时德 国之声曾发表对香港浸会大学新闻系越南问题专家杨达的采访,引起广泛反响。中越战争30周年之际,杨达再度接受了德国之声的专访。

德国之声:中越战争已经过去30年,您觉得两国的邦交能否成为一种很正常很友好的邦交呢?因为两国现在仍然存在南海等争端。

杨达:争端还是有一些,主要是你刚才说的南海那方面,可是大体来说,中越关系还是不错的。为什么?因为我们现在已经进入"后冷战时期",过去困扰中 越关系的问题,比如苏联的因素等等已经不存在了。所以一般来说,我觉得中越关系还是不错的。除了在战略关系以外,还有就是经济,贸易方面的问题。尤其是中 国与东南亚国家,尤其是东盟已经建立所谓自由贸易协定。这很重要。因为中国在所谓的"软力量"方面在东南亚的影响主要是正面的,所以从现在来说,相比30 年前的世界来说,中越关系还是不错的。

德国之声:我们也注意到,这么多年来,越南都在效仿中国实行经济方面的改革,在体制上还是保持一种缓慢的发展态势。从这个角度看,中越两国会不会在体制的改革上也产生一些互动作用呢?

杨达:我觉得中越有一些差不多的问题,所以中越之间可能有一些借鉴的可能,比如两国都是从社会主义计划经济改过来的,所以他们共同的问题还是比较多,是有参考的价值。

德国之声:越南在政治改革这方面会不会比中国进行得更快呢?

杨达:我个人的了解是越南在政治改革方面可能会快一些。我了解他们党内在这方面是公开的。 这和现在中国的情况有些不同。当然也要考虑越南的国情跟中国不同。越南国内的问题也比中国严重,比方说经济方面,尤其是通胀方面可能比较严重。越南期望跟 某些国家发展更多的关系,比如越南本身也希望跟美国有比较友好一些的关系,也希望与其他东南亚国家发展关系,融入东南亚,尤其是东盟。所以,越南这方面的 改革可能会快一些。

德国之声:战争过去30年后是否仍在越南民众心中留下很多阴影呢?您也知道,在中国,特别是80,90年代,很多舆论宣传,电影还是给中国人民心中越南人的形象造成了非常大的影响的。

杨达:我的了解是,在越南,中国的有些文化产品还是很流行的,比方说中国的电视剧。因此,阴影我不排除,一定有的,但同时我觉得中越关系从现在的角度,尤其是以新一代的角度看,可能有些不同。

德国之声:越南有没有感到中国是一个威胁,中国威胁论在越南是不是也被人接受呢?

杨达:多少也有。因为中国是一个很大的国家。如果我们从东南亚的角度看-还有其它国家,比如说东北亚韩国的角度看也是一样-中国的发展其实多多少少 是一个威胁。从我们临近的国家来说,多多少少有些担心。我觉得中国的外交政策一般来说是希望减低这种担心,尽可能利用中国所谓的经济,贸易优势吸引他们。 我觉得跟越南的关系也是一样的。

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2009年2月16日 星期一

Landmark Khmer Rouge trial starts

Landmark Khmer Rouge trial starts

Duch, pictured in court on 20 November 2007
Duch ran a Khmer Rouge prison where almost all inmates were killed

The long-awaited UN-backed trial of a former Khmer Rouge leader in Cambodia has opened at a Phnom Penh court, 30 years after the murderous regime fell.

Kaing Guek Eav - better known as Duch - was head of a notorious prison camp and is accused of presiding over the murder and torture of at least 15,000 inmates.

The trial is the result of a decade of painstaking and often ill-tempered negotiations, a BBC correspondent says.

People queued for hours to attend the hearing and see the ex-prison chief.

For the survivors, the opening day of the trial offered the first opportunity to see a leading figure in the Khmer Rouge face justice.

These first days are mainly procedural, with witness testimony expected to be heard only during next month's hearings, the BBC's South East Asia correspondent, Jonathan Head, says.

Duch was driven by bulletproof car from a detention centre to the specially-built court-room.

He is one of five former Khmer Rouge leaders who will face trial and is unusual in that he has expressed regret for what he did, and asked the forgiveness of his victims.

Tribunal spokesman Reach Sambath called it "a very big day for the Cambodian people because the justice that they have been waiting for 30 years is starting to get closer and closer".

"I came here to see the trial with my own eyes, so I could tell villagers who could not be here," Mahd Musa, 54, who lost seven family members during the Khmer Rouge period, told Reuters news agency.

"It is a very important day for me. I cannot miss it."

'Killing fields'

Footage from the trial in Phnom Penh

Duch, a former teacher, was commander of the Tuol Sleng interrogation centre, also known as S-21, in the capital Phnom Penh for four years after the Khmer Rouge victory in 1975.

He is accused of personally overseeing the systematic torture of more than 15,000 prisoners.

Those who survived the ordeal were sent for execution in the so-called "killing fields".

Many of the inmates were loyal party members who were caught up in the frenzy of paranoid killing that accompanied the Khmer Rouge's final months in power, the BBC's South East Asia correspondent says.

Tourist at Choeung Ek, one of the Khmer Rouge-era killing fields, now a memorial site

Duch, 66, has been in detention since 1999, two years after he was discovered by a British photographer.

A born-again Christian, he is said to have co-operated with investigating judges - and is expected to reveal important information about the decisions made by the organisation's leadership.

His information could help in the trials set for later this year of the five other defendants, analysts say.

They include the surviving top leaders Nuon Chea, Ieng Sary and Khieu Samphan, who are all elderly and in poor health.

If preparations for their trials get bogged down, as seems likely, Comrade Duch may be the only man ever held to account for the Khmer Rouge atrocities, our correspondent adds.

Drawn-out negotiations

But the man most wanted for crimes against humanity in Cambodia will never be brought to justice.

WHO WERE THE KHMER ROUGE?
Maoist regime that ruled Cambodia from 1975-1979
Founded and led by Pol Pot, who died in 1998
Abolished religion, schools and currency in a bid to create agrarian utopia
Up to two million people thought to have died from starvation, overwork or execution

Pol Pot, the founder and leader of the Khmer Rouge, died in a camp along the border with Thailand in 1998, the same year his few remaining guerrillas agreed to finally abandon their fight.

As many as two million people are thought to have died from starvation, overwork and execution as the Khmer Rouge emptied the cities to send people to work on collective farms during its four years in power.

Cambodia originally asked the United Nations and international community to help set up a tribunal into the genocide more than a decade ago.

A joint tribunal was finally set up in 2006 following long drawn-out negotiations between the Phnom Penh government and the UN.

Bail hearings, appeals and pre-trial procedures have contributed to further delays.

新加坡记者韩咏红 西藏行见闻

时事风云 | 2009.02.16

新加坡记者西藏行见闻

上周二到周五,由中国国务院和外交部组织的外国记者采访团在西藏进行了为期四天的采访。这是中国官方自去年3.14西藏骚乱后组织的第三次境外记者入藏采 访,共有11家外国媒体受邀入藏。新加坡《联合早报》的记者韩咏红已是三次入藏,她与其他记者实地了解了骚乱发生一年后藏民的生活情况。本周一,她在刚刚 返回北京后,接受了德国之声记者的采访。

德国之声:韩咏红您好,您在对西藏的报道中曾提到说,"目前,拉萨的局势看似平静却又紧张"。能具体谈谈您在拉萨感受到怎样的紧张气氛?

韩咏红:在我们采访的藏民中,那些受访者告诉我们,"记者团抵达之前街上是有很多武警的。"然后,我们到达西藏的时候那些武警就撤离了,但你能感觉 到街上有很多便衣。不过,正是因为有很多便衣,一些老百姓觉得这样他们反而更有安全感。可是从这个方面你也能看得出,中国当局是很紧张,怕西藏再出现任何 骚乱的。

德国之声:去年3.14骚乱后您也曾入藏采访,与那个时候比较,如今的西藏发生了哪些变化呢?

韩咏红:表面上看,西藏的社会秩序、生活生产是恢复了,但是我看到的是,现在的西藏绝对没有3.14以前的那种热闹跟繁华了。我们在街上看到还有商店在营业,马路上也有车流,但是我的受访对象告诉我,这比2007年下半年要差得很远。

如今在西藏比较繁华的地方能看到有连续几家商店根本没有开门,可能是老板不做了或者店面租不出去。到了晚上8点以后,甚至更早一些时间,这里街上就没什么人了,甚至有的公务员跟我们说,到了晚上最好不要出门。所以现在的西藏晚上确实很"静"。

德国之声:在这种氛围下,藏民们是否对下个月西藏的局势发展更感到担忧呢?

韩咏红:采访中,没有人表示对下个月西藏的局势发展很害怕。但是被问到的所有人都能够回答这个问题,就是说,他们都想过下个月可能出事会不会出事这个问题,我想大家都担心过。

德国之声:这些记者是否有自由采访时间,还是官方安排了固定的采访对象和采访行程?

韩咏红:这次与前面两次比最大变化就是:这次你可以有比较自由的采访时间,但这个自由也是相对的。意思是,我们与官员之间要有一种默契。他可以让你有一些自由活动时间,但是他也不会接受你一整天都出外采访。他们要带我们看那些他们认为的重点。当然,我们也会尽量配合去做。

记得第一次去西藏的时候,曾经有一位《金融时报》的记者脱队,然后官方派了三辆警车尾随。但这次我单独出外采访没遇到这样的情况,或许有人跟踪我,但至少不是明晃晃的警车跟踪,至少我们也进到寺院采访了。

我感觉,现在中国官方已经做好了记者会写各种各样负面的报道或者会提些刁难问题的准备了,但仅此而已。

受访人物:

韩咏红,37岁,现任新加坡《联合早报》驻北京记者站特派员。她曾在3.14西藏骚乱后,2008年奥运火炬传递和2009年1月期间,作为境外记者三次进入西藏实地采访。

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2009年2月15日 星期日

Japan's economy in quarterly dive; 朝鮮中央通訊社

Japan's economy in quarterly dive

Pedestrians in front of market information in Tokyo, Japan, 12 February 2009
Japanese exports have been hit by the global economic downturn

Japan's economy contracted by 3.3% in the last quarter of last year - its worst showing since the oil crisis of the 1970s, official figures show.

The contraction means the economy shrank at an annual pace of 12.7%. during the October to December period.

Economic Minister Kaoru Yosano said Japan faced its worst economic crisis since the end of World War II.

The slowdown in the world's second-biggest economy is steeper than in the US or Europe.

Japan has been hit particularly hard by falling global demand for its products.

Exports, particularly of electronics and cars, have slumped and production has been slashed.

Consumers have cut back too, alarmed by rising unemployment.

No surprise

People had been saying for some time that GDP would be bad, so while the market didn't welcome the numbers there was no excessive reaction
Hiroaki Osakabe, Chibagin Asset Management

"This is the worst economic crisis in the post-war era. There is no doubt about it," Mr Yosano said at a news conference.

"The Japanese economy, whose growth is heavily dependent on exports of automobiles, machinery, and IT equipment, was literally battered" by the global downturn, he said.

However, Japan's stock market largely brushed off the latest economic news.

The Nikkei share index lost 0.4%, while the broader Topix rose 0.7%.

"People had been saying for some time that GDP would be bad, so while the market didn't welcome the numbers there was no excessive reaction," said Hiroaki Osakabe at Chibagin Asset Management.

"The next quarter is likely to also be tough because consumption may well fall off."

Government problems

Mr Yosano said the government would consider new stimulus measures to aid the economy.

"Japan alone won't be able to recover. The economy has no border. It is our responsibility to rebuild the domestic economy for other countries," he added.

Prime Minister Taro Aso is hampered in his response by a divided parliament and a fractious ruling party.

There were reports over the weekend that he is considering another stimulus package of government spending worth 20 trillion yen ($218bn; £152bn).

But the latest opinion poll has showed that fewer than 10% of people support the prime minister, who must call a general election by September.

朝鮮中央通訊社在星期一(2月16日)金正日67歲生日之際否認朝鮮準備試射遠程導彈。

近日來,韓國、日本以及西方媒體普遍報道朝鮮將試射“大埔洞”2型洲際彈道導彈。

朝鮮中央社評論稱這是“反朝鮮惡勢力”散播的謠言,“是企圖阻擋朝鮮發展自衛所需的軍事力量以及和平科學研究的險惡陰謀”。

中央社稱,“朝鮮將發射什麼,大家過段時間就會知道。”

中央社表示,“開發太空是朝鮮的自主權利,也是現實發展的要求。”

評論稱,目前各國都在開發太空,朝鮮也正根據這一趨勢發展自己的尖端科技,並在太空開發領域取得巨大成果。

吸引注意?

此前有分析稱,朝鮮選擇在此際試射遠程導彈是為了吸引美國奧巴馬政府的注意。

但中央社的評論說:“目的不純的勢力聲稱朝鮮是以挑舋行為吸引某勢力注意,但這種說法本身就是對朝鮮的侮辱。”

“朝鮮無需任何人的關心,也不希望他人介入或干涉只有朝鮮民族居住的朝鮮半島的事務。”

不過韓國聯合通訊社報道指出,朝鮮在1998年試射“大浦洞”1號導彈時曾聲稱是發射“光明星1號”人造衛星。

報道因此提出朝鮮此次可能故伎重演,以發射人造衛星作為試射導彈的掩護。

美國國務卿希拉里﹒克林頓在前往亞洲訪問途中對記者們表示美國期待朝鮮遵守其所作出的去核承諾。

克林頓在上周曾表示如果朝鮮放棄核武器計劃,美國願與其簽署和平協議,實現關係正常化並提供能源及其它經濟援助。