2008年6月30日 星期一

Frank Sieren看中国

0630 看CNN"轉播" You Tube 桂林等地的暴動.....

中国 | 2008.06.29

中国通 泽林:西藏事件和大地震中怎么看中国

畅销书作家弗兰克•泽林(Frank Sieren)被德国时代周刊称为德国最著名的中国专家之一,伦敦泰晤士报则称他为德国的“中国通”。作为德国《经济周刊》驻北京记者,他曾经在中国生活 了15年。他的作品《中国密码》以及与施密特总统合著的《与中国为邻》出版时都引起轰动。他的新作《中国震惊》出版后即登上十大畅销书宝座,并高居德国经 济类畅销书榜首。本周三由洪堡大学经济论坛举行的“中国和西方”的研讨会后德国之声记者采访了他。

德国之声:您在中国生活了15年,您觉得这十五年中,中国发生了什么样的变化?

泽林:我只能说,中国在这15年里经历了翻天覆地的变化!这种变化不仅仅发生在城市,当然主要是在城市,但在农村也能体会到这种变化。人们变得更开 放,生活水平提高了很多,人们享受更多的言论自由,媒体也开放了很多,虽然在西方人眼中看来,这样的言论自由远远不够的,但是跟15年前相比,无疑是巨大 的进步。虽然今天的中国还不是真正意义上的法治国家,还存在很多问题,比如腐败,社会不公正,但是对很多人来说,特别是穷人来说,相比15年前,他们取得 成功的机会要大得多。我们要看到,中国总体来说是在进步的。人们当然可以假设中国在另外一种的制度可能会发展得更好,但是我对这种想法表示怀疑。

德国之声:中德在经济方面的互动和紧密合作是目前的热点话题。您在《中国密码》中也讨论了中国的繁荣是如何影响德国经济。您认为中国文化对德国影响大吗?

泽林:当一个国家的经济足够强大后,在文化上也会强大起来,正如美国那样。我相信随着中国的经济发展,文化一定会强大起来。中国跟西方有很大的差 异,特别是在价值观方面,随着中国的强大,这些价值观一定会对西方造成影响。对此我毫不怀疑,但是我不敢肯定中国需要多久才能向西方输出自己的价值观,也 无法估计这些价值观能对西方产生多大的影响。西方人肯不肯为喝茶而不是葡萄酒花上300欧元,或者茶艺会不会在德国家庭流行?这些都是值得我们思考的问 题。但是,我对中国文化日后能主导西方社会这样的想法持怀疑态度。

德国之声:随着中国的开放,西方文化对中国文化产生了不少影响,很多人因此开始否定中国自己传统的东西。您认为在全球化过程中,目前中国在传统与外来文化中是否找到了一种平衡?

泽林:随着全球化进程的推进,个体文化也都变得更国际化了,中国文化吸收了很多外来的东西,形成了独特的混合文化,不过要小心,别被美国文化过分影 响。欧洲文化也受到来自美国文化的形象,但是没有丧失自己的特性。现在很多中国年轻人对外国的文化、时尚很好奇,也勇于尝试,学习的同时他们也融入了自己 的个性元素。当他们尝试了各种文化后,总会找到适合自己的东西。我个人认为,最后每个国家都会形成有个体特色的国际文化。此外,人们只能希望未来中国跟西 方能够互相尊重、更理智地共存而不是对抗,在这点上,西方特别要注意。西方要客观地对待世界经济中心向亚洲的转移,要通过对话和合作而不是对抗来解决问 题。过去一段时间内发生的事情让我感到担心,西方媒体和政客采用了对抗性的、强烈而轻率的态度来对待中国。

德国之声:对。在过去一段时间,德国媒体充斥着对中国的负面报道。西方媒体对中国的成就报道很少,而总是抓住中国的问题不放。

泽林:在竞争的压力下,很多人并不希望看到一个强大的中国,或者说,很多人要尽可能的抹黑中国。这当然是一种很不明智的做法。一个好的商人总是高估 自己的对手,而一个失败的商人总是则不把对手当一回事儿。但是总体来说,面对竞争压力而尽可能的诋毁对手也是人类的自然反应。但是作为国家采取这样处理方 式是令人忧虑的。

德国之声:但是一旦中国陷入混乱,也会给世界带来灾难性的影响。难道西方社会希望看到这样一个结果吗?

泽林:当然不希望。不过有些人并不明白这其中的道理,对他们来说,如果中国陷入混乱,那他们就不必为竞争和竞争带来的压力担心了。面临来自中国的竞 争,作为世界少数民族的欧洲仍然希望保证自己的领导地位,但是他们忘记了这个世界剩下的多数人口也希望能发出自己的声音,参与决定过程。德国、西方政客似 乎没有认清目前的形式,并以此及时制定出理智务实的外交政策来吸引选民的注意。所以目前来说,对中国的人权问题指手画脚更能获得大众的支持。

德国之声:您是否同意施密特总理的看法:中国政府统治的合法性应当由中国民众自己决定,而不是由西方的价值观决定?

泽林:对。虽然现在中国仍然是一个专制国家,但是只要成千上万中国民众不走上街头反对政府--这当然也是中国政府避免发生的--就证明了中国政府统 治的合法性。今天的中国政府已经不可能在任意妄为了。在中国政府与民众之间其实存在着一种无形的契约关系:只要政府能够带领民众走向富裕,民众就承认其合 法性;一旦政府不能遵守诺言,那民众一定会上街抗议,一旦这种情况发生,那是什么都挡不住的。中国政府对此很清楚,所以一方面要发展经济,改善人们生活, 来证明其统治的合法性;另一方面要保持社会稳定。

德国之声:西藏事件发生后,不少西方国家对中国政府的处理方式表示不满,媒体也对此大肆批评。四川地震之后,中国政府采取了开放透明的态度,西方对此也表示赞赏。您认为中国政府对地震的处理方式是否改善了中国在西方社会中的形象?

泽林:北京政府对西藏事件的反应和处理相当不成熟。特别是西藏党委书记指责达赖喇嘛是"披着神圣外衣的狼",这是非常不成熟甚至有些愚蠢的做法。不 清楚解释自己的立场,而一味地指责对方,这不是一个政府应该做的。事实上这两次事件并没有可比性,不能说中国政府从西藏事件中得到了教训,所以针对地震灾 害采取了成熟的应对方式。我相信,如果地震是去年发生的,中国政府也能理智成熟地应对。毕竟人们不能把地震跟中国的政治联系起来,所以政府也能采取更开放 的态度。另一方面人们对地震造成的伤亡和损失感到悲痛,这种感情相对单纯,但是西藏事件中涉及的因素很多,很复杂,不是一下子能说清楚地。我希望中国政府 日后能够更清楚地表达出让人信服的立场。举个例子,中国目前还缺乏一个能够达到BBC、CNN或者阿拉伯半岛电视台这类国际新闻媒体标准的电视台,这是非 常可惜的。作为外国人,我无法从中央九台清楚地了解到中国政府的立场,在这方面,中国还要加紧努力。

德国之声:您在中国的生活经历对您个人看待中国的角度有什么影响?

泽林:对于长期在外国生活过的人来说,你要学会从当地人角度来看问题,学会适应当地的环境,你也会明白自己的立场并不是唯一正确的,你要学会妥协。 对于没有外国生活经验的默克尔总理来说,她显然不太明白这点,她一直都是以政客的身份来了解外国的。她曾经以环境部部长、反对党领袖以及党主席的身份随团 出访外国,而没有尝试过独自到一个陌生的国度旅游,在那里必须遵守当地的规则而不能肆意妄为。此外,你还要学会一些生存规则,以便处理一些法律解决不了的 问题,特别是在中国这样法制并不十分健全的国家。因此,我们更要跟中国开展对话和合作,从多方面增进了解,而不是抱着一种自负的态度对中国指手画脚。目前 我们对中国的了解还不够多,而中国又是这样一个有趣的国家,所以我不介意以后继续呼吸污浊的空气的,继续在中国生活下去。

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亭子

2008年6月27日 星期五

中國在緬甸

緬甸背靠中國好乘涼
2008年06月25日07:48



個月的納爾吉斯颶風摧毀了緬甸南部地區的重要糧食產區﹐導致134,000人死亡或失蹤。但在距此僅480公里的北部貿易中心﹐經濟形勢卻一派大好。



緬甸部分地區經濟發展迅猛﹐其中就包括貿易重鎮曼德勒市


在曼德勒市人頭攢動的玉石市場﹐數百人圍著這些綠色的小石頭討價還價。Khin Maungwin和他的八個孩子就在酷熱的環境下從事切割和打磨翡翠的工作。如果運氣好的話﹐他一天的銷售額能達到5,000美元。原因很簡單。他說﹐這些翡翠都流向中國了。

儘管歐美國家對緬甸實行了十多年的經濟制裁﹐給緬甸軍政權施加壓力﹐但過去幾年里﹐中國在緬甸的影響和雙邊貿易一直在大幅增加。

中國並不是緬甸唯一的貿易伙伴:泰國、印度甚至少數制裁前即進入當地的西方公司在緬甸的業務都開展得不錯。不過當地人說﹐中國最近的擴張最為積極﹐一些人認為這對緬甸軍政府提供了最寶貴的支持。

過去五年中﹐中國官方報導的與緬甸的貿易額增長了近一倍﹐達到每年約20億美元﹐而且預計在今後幾年中還會繼續增加。分析師表示﹐官方數據大大低估了中緬關係的密切程度﹐他們說這其中還包括了大量的賬外安排、貸款﹐以及武器。

中國官員表示﹐與緬甸保持來往是正常的﹐因為該國沒有對國際安全構成威脅。今年1月份﹐中國外交部發言人向記者表示﹐國際社會應客觀地看待緬甸的情況﹐提供建設性的幫助﹐而不是拒絕在那裡從事商業活動。

外交部發言人在對記者所提問題的書面答復中指出﹐中國希望同國際社會一道﹐在解決緬甸問題的過程中發揮積極作用﹐同緬甸的貿易有助於促進兩國的經濟發展。

中國在緬甸影響力的日益增強從曼德勒就可見一斑。這是一個擁有一百萬人口的城市﹐座座金光閃閃的佛塔掩映在鬱鬱蔥蔥的綠樹之中。這裡也是緬甸玉石、柚木和其它自然資源的交易中心。曼德勒是緬甸19世紀80年代最後一任君主的家鄉﹐這裡過去死氣沉沉﹐但現在卻變得熙熙攘攘﹐擁擠而臟亂﹐到處是新建的辦公樓、百貨商店和賓館﹐其中包括住滿中國商人的7層樓的長城飯店。在曼德勒擁擠的中心區分佈的許多企業﹐如銀行、黃金交易行和家具倉庫都帶有中國風格的烙印﹐就像是帶有門禁的地中海風格的新建瓦屋頂公寓一樣。

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border=0每天清晨﹐數千名緬甸當地人都會蹬著吱嘎作響的自行車從貧窮的鄉村趕到20公里之外的城區。他們說﹐他們是在中國投資者擁有的企業和工廠中工作﹐這些投資者往往與軍政府保持著合作關係。一些人戲稱他們每天必須到中國工作﹐然後在晚上返回緬甸。一位司機說﹐中國人有錢﹐所有緬甸人都要為他們打工。

在緬甸開展業務的其他跨國公司還包括泰國油氣生產商PTT Exploration & Production PCL﹐該公司在當地的業務每年可向泰國輸送價值約20億美元的天然氣。美國石油巨頭雪佛龍(Chevron Corp.)和法國的道達爾(Total SA)也持有一個大型天然氣項目的股份。

雪佛龍一位發言人稱﹐該公司投資於緬甸的資產是出於深具吸引力的商業原因﹐出發點是更好地滿足東南亞對能源供應的需求。

中國公司的興趣則更為廣泛。中國企業正幫助緬甸興建十幾座水電站。中國石油天然氣集團公司(China National Petroleum Corporation.)和中國海洋石油總公司(China National Offshore Oil Corp.)等中國石油巨頭在緬甸都擁有勘探項目﹐預計將花費數十億美元從一個新的海上氣田購買能源。

中海油發言人肖宗偉說﹐作為石油企業﹐我們別無選擇﹐只能到有油的地方﹔公司經營的出發點是利潤﹐而非政治。

最大的獎勵之一就是Shwe氣田﹐這是緬甸西海岸之外的一個大型未開發項目。該項目定於2011年投產﹐目前正由包括韓國Daewoo International Corp.在內的一組公司進行開發。

Daewoo的一名管理人員表示﹐合作各方仍在研究該項目的細節﹐但開採的天然氣很有可能出售給中國最大的上市石油公司中國石油天然氣股份有限公司(PetroChina Co.)。預計這個項目的規模將超過緬甸現有的任何氣田﹐可能還會包括一條從緬甸海岸通往中國南部的管道建設工作。

中國最大金礦企業之一的紫金礦業集團股份有限公司(Zijin Mining Group Co.)和其它公司也計劃大規模投資緬甸﹐開展採礦業務。紫金礦業管理人員鄭于強說﹐該公司收到了海外基金經理抱怨其不應在緬甸投資的信函。但他說﹐從公司的角度而言﹐我們只是關注項目﹐關注資源﹐這是兩碼事。紫金礦業在香港和上海兩地上市。

中國時常會利用其影響力左右緬甸的政局。2004年﹐中國總理溫家寶曾呼籲緬甸加快民主進程﹐以促進穩定及和平發展。兩年後﹐在倫敦非政府組織Global Witness發現從緬甸出口到中國的大部分木材都源自非法砍伐之後﹐中國關閉了從緬甸進口木材的邊境。Global Witness稱﹐此後中國恢復了購買緬甸的非法木材﹐但數量低於2006年前的水平。

但更多的時候中國一直在袒護緬甸軍政府。去年﹐中國和俄羅斯否決了美國提出的一項聯合國安理會決議﹐這項決議要求緬甸結束政治鎮壓和侵犯人權﹐加快民主進程。

根據新加坡東南亞研究所(Institute of Southeast Asian Studies)一位研究員的論文﹐北京向緬甸提供了價值20億美元的武器﹐其中包括200輛坦克、50多架戰鬥機和300輛裝甲車﹐多數是以易貨或貸款的方式完成的。

分析師稱﹐這些武器幫助緬甸建立了一支東南亞地區最強大的軍隊﹐總人數約為40萬人。這支軍隊去年曾平息了僧侶舉行的一場民主運動﹐共造成30多人死亡。

經濟學家和當地居民們說﹐中國和其它亞洲國家的投資似乎並未給普通緬甸人的生活帶來多大幫助﹐在一些地區甚至還招致了怨恨。

住在曼德勒的一位作家兼編輯說﹐緬甸靠這種方式永遠也不會富強。由於擔心軍政府的迫害﹐他不願透露自己的姓名。他說﹐緬甸向中國交付的資源越多﹐它對於自身未來的話語權就越少。

采访 康拉德•赛兹博士(Dr. Konrad Seitz)--德国之声

康拉德•赛兹博士于1995年至1999年间担任德国驻华大使,并于2003年撰写了《中国 - 一个世界强国的复兴》 (China. Eine Weltmacht kehrt zurück)。赛兹博士在书中向读者介绍了中国悠久的历史文明以及成就,讲述了19世纪儒家帝制的崩溃以及中国人对自己文化的失望。该书描述了1949 年新中国成立以及后来全力发展经济,奠定未来强国基础的历程。这本书被美国彭博资讯(Bloomberg)列为最重要的十本经济著作之一。

(China. Eine Weltmacht kehrt zurück

中國:一个世界强国的复兴


(德) 康拉德·赛茨著
许文敏, 李卡宁译
北京 |c 国际文化出版公司 |d 2007
322页 |c 图 |d 24cm 305
据原书2000年版译出 314 __ |a 责任者规范汉译姓: 塞茨(Seitz) 320 __ |a 有书目 (第314-320页)

本书由五个部分组成,介绍了古老中国的历史、中国在19世纪的衰落、在毛泽东领导下重新站起来的新中国,以及之后中国全力发展经济,奠定未来强国基础的历程。 500 10 |a China : eine weltmacht kehrt zurück |m Chinese

中国 | 2008.06.27

专访德国前驻华大使康拉德•赛兹

本周三(6月25日),洪堡大学经济论坛(HUFW)组织了一场主题为“中国和西方”的讨论会。作为中西对话的倡导者,德国前驻华大使康拉德•赛兹博士(Dr. Konrad Seitz)在会上致开幕词。讨论会后,赛兹博士接受了德国之声记者的采访。

德国之声:您在书中描述了很多中国历史上取得的辉煌成就,但是西方似乎对此却知之甚少。是因为西方社会对中国过去的成就和今天的进步不屑一顾吗?

赛兹:很大一个原因是由于西方的狭隘。德国人也好、美国人也好,他们实际上并不真正关心外国的事情。中国已经算是个例外了,现在在德国能看到很多关 于中国的信息,不过人们看到的是一个被扭曲的中国形象。媒体对中国人民生活水平的提高、中国政府为脱贫所作出的努力和成就关注很少,却聚焦于关押政治犯这 类政治话题。这主要出于西方人对民主价值观的强调和重视,但是他们忽略了并不是每个社会都适合建立西方式民主的事实。其实在德国一直都不缺乏关于中国的话 题,不过很多讨论都是基于这个扭曲的中国形象上的。正因为如此,我们还要继续努力,让更多的人了解真正的中国。同时我们也看到,跟十年前相比,在德国获得 的关于中国的信息全面了很多,中国的形象也改善了很多。

德国之声:最近一段时间德国媒体上充斥了对中国的负面报道,比如在对西藏事件中的报道中,媒体甚至使用了错误的图片信息,引起了中国民众的极大不满。您如何看待这个现象?

赛兹:我在给《南德意志报》写的一篇文章提到这个现象。从长远来看,这损害了中国跟西方的未来关系发展。中国对即将到来的奥运会满怀期待,并希望以 最佳状态迎接来自各国的运动员和游客。但是扑面而来的负面报道、呼吁抵制奥运会等这些做法,严重伤害了中国人的爱国热情。试想一下,如果中国恶意中伤德国 足球队的话,德国可能也会有同样的反应。因此很多有识之士,比如前总理施密特,都站出来批评这种现象。

德国之声:不少人对中国的崛起感到害怕,您认为中国的强大会威胁到西方社会的生存吗?

赛兹:上个世纪90年代中后期的时候,"中国威胁论"兴起,西方社会主要是担心中国强大以后带来的军事上的威胁。现在这种论调已经落伍了,而西方的 担心更多来自于经济、能源、环境等方面的考虑。当然还有不少人都在为建立双方互利互惠的关系而努力,认为中国的强大对西方来说更多的是机遇而不是威胁。

德国之声:中国强劲的经济增长速度的确让世人瞩目,中国在国际政治舞台也开始扮演一个大国的角色了吗?

赛兹:事实上我认为从2004年,中国已经开始渐入佳境,成为一个政治大国了,这不仅仅因为中国在安理会占有重要的一席。无论是在贸易关系中还是从 中非关系、中国跟拉美国家的关系上来看,中国的影响都举足轻重。中国通过跟非洲国家、拉美国家的合作,逐渐建立起能跟西方社会抗衡的力量,促进形成一个多 极化的世界格局。

德国之声:您认为西方对崛起中的中国有什么期待?

赛兹:西方希望中国在促进地区稳定方面能承担更多的责任,比如说在朝鲜问题上。但是也要看到西方的兴趣跟中国的兴趣也有冲突的时候,所以我们要注意 避免产生冲突。例如在伊朗核问题上,中国跟西方社会都不愿意看到伊朗最终掌握核技术,但是中国更希望能够从伊朗获得石油,保障自己的能源安全,这样就有可 能产生矛盾。此外在环保问题上,中西也应该加强合作。如果没有中国的合作和努力,那全球环保问题就不可能真正解决。

德国之声:您认为中国本身适应了这样一个世界大国的角色吗?

赛兹:北京政府对目前中国的世界地位相当清楚,也自信地执行相应的政策。过去中国政府对此相当谦虚,如果你向官员表扬中国取得经济成就,他们总会谦 虚地说,我们还是一个贫穷的发展中国家。但是今天北京政府对自己的影响力相当自信了。在外交政策上,中国也逐渐融入国际秩序。让传统强国接纳中国并承认中 国的崛起,同时互相尊重各自的兴趣,这无论对中国还是西方来说,都不是一件容易的事情。在这点上,我相当乐观。目前为止,中国很好地适应了这样一个角色。 此外,人们要认识到,虽然中国的复兴在某些方面挑战了传统强国的影响力,但是没有哪个明智的西方政治家不希望中国继续成功地发展下去。大家都明白,如果有 一天中国陷入混乱,那对整个世界来说,都是一种灾难。

德国之声:西方社会经常指责中国的人权状况以及新闻和言论自由。难道中国的人权状况真像他们所说得那么可怕,还是因为双方在价值观、衡量标准上的差异,导致了这种批评?

赛兹:在这个问题上,我认为要分清楚是否出于政府的本意。由于中国要保持目前的体制,就不得不采取一些专制的措施,比如说限制某些政治权利,这跟西 方民主体制的确不一样。如果中国政府认为,目前的很多问题并不能通过西方式的民主解决的话,那么中国也不必为了西方的意见改变目前的情况。但是有很多问 题,并不是中国政府本身希望发生的,比如说农民维权遭到殴打等,这主要是由于中国的发展水平还不高,很多东西不完善,同样的事情也可能会在印度或者别的民 主国家发生。这个跟中国的文化并没有关系,主要还是因为中国所处的发展阶段。西方用了上百年才形成了一套相对健全的体制,不能指望中国用二十年就全盘接受 并变得无懈可击。我们要看到中国在改善人权状况中做出的努力。在关于人权状况的报道上,西方媒体应该更全面一些,除了坏消息,也要报道一些好消息,人们也 要对中国的社会和文化多一份理解。

德国之声:最近几年中国与非洲关系密切,参与了很多当地事务。但是西方经常批评中国只顾剥削非洲的能源,并不在乎当地的民主建设和稳定。您如何评价中国在非洲的活动?

赛兹:这样的说法也是片面的。中国在非洲获得了石油和原材料,同时帮助非洲进行基础设施建设,兴建公路、铁路、医院和学校。或许中国也可以参考一下 西方的援助政策,对有需要的人提供一些直接的帮助而不是总跟政府打交道。总体来说,我认为西方无法改变中国的非洲政策,因为那不符合中国的逻辑。中国不会 屈服其他国家的指手画脚,要求他们一定要建立民主制度。中国也可以反过来对西方说,现在非洲的很多战争和冲突恰恰是非洲无法维持西方式的民主而导致的后 果。所以,我们不能简单的指责中国的非洲政策。

德国之声:由美国、世界银行、世界货币基金组织倡导的"华盛顿共识"并没有带领非洲和拉美国家走向繁荣,您认为"北京共识"能成为一种新的发展模式,给非洲发展提供参考吗?

赛兹:对很多非洲国家来说,最重要的是能找到一个真正愿意带领国家走出困境的领导人。看看现在的津巴布韦,无论是华盛顿共识,还是北京共识,都没用。非洲的未来掌握在非洲的领导人手中。

2008年6月26日 星期四

AMERICAN CANDIDATES IGNORE ASIA AT THEIR PERIL


为美国总统候选人,巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)和约翰•麦凯恩(John McCain)应该比多数人更为理解,为何亚洲对于任何一位白宫主人都很重要。与前总统老布什(George H.W. Bush)不同,这两位总统候选人都从未访问过北京,但他们至少都曾在亚洲的土地上逗留过一段时间:奥巴马童年时代曾在印尼读书,麦凯恩曾是越南战争的战 俘。

这些经验将对他们有利。作为全球逾半数人口的家园和大量冲突所在的地区,亚洲往往让缺乏准备的美国总统措手不及。

迄今为止,亚洲对美国的历史影响一直比中东更具灾难性,也更血腥;回顾一下二战时期与日本的冲突、朝鲜战争和越南战争吧。甚至如今,美国正在进行的两场大战之一,就位于中亚的阿富汗。


乔治•布什(George W. Bush)只不过是最新一位起初低估亚洲重要性、并对中国采取对抗态度的总统。与比尔•克林顿(Bill Clinton)一样,他后来改变了论调,向北京抛出了橄榄枝。

这种早期敌意、迟来修好的模式可能会重演。在美国民主党和共和党随后将分别召开全国代表大会之际,将于8月举行的北京奥运以及可能出现的人权抗议和民族主义丑陋表演,对此没有帮助。

不管北京奥运会期间发生什么事,奥巴马和麦凯恩都不能无视亚洲崛起对美国选民的重要性。在美国每次举行大选时,亚太地区都会对美国施加更多的经济和战略影响。

美国政界人士关注于“国内经济”,仿佛他们能够脱离外国的影响——在全球化时代,这是毫无用处的。奥巴马的前民主党竞争对手希拉里•克林顿 (Hilary Clinton)带有嘲笑口吻的竞选声明称:“我们从中国人那里借钱,购买沙特的石油。”这是事实。毕竟,中国人拥有金钱,沙特拥有石油。

在信贷危机期间,亚洲强劲经济增长的重要性在金融业尤为明显。中国、印度和澳大利亚企业的并购和股票发行,都增加了在美国和欧洲市场举步维艰的投行的收入。亚洲主权财富基金已向西方金融机构注资。

然而,亚洲的经济重要性远不止这些。关注美国大选时间表的美国银行(Bank of America)首席市场策略师约瑟夫•昆兰 (Joseph Quinlan)本月请求美国政界人士,要承认美国经济与全球其它国家存在高度相互依赖关系,并督促他们不要转向贸易保护主义。他写道:“美国对外国劳动 力、资源、资金和市场等关键投入要素的依赖性从未像现在这样巨大。”

谈到安全,毫无疑问,中国等国正迅速扩充其军力。很明显,中国人民解放军(PLA)副总参谋长马晓天中将梦想着超级大国之间的平衡。他在国际战略研 究所(International Institute for Strategic Studies)组织的年度亚洲安全大会上表示:“和平是势均力敌的产物,是实力的对等,是进攻和防御实力的平衡。”尽管小布什总统在外交上有失策,但他 把中国称为“战略竞争对手”是正确的。


就连那些质疑中国有能力在未来数十年内赶上美国军力的人,也明白了爆发冲突的可能性和合作的必要性。最近,美国国务卿康多莉扎•赖斯 (Condoleezza Rice)和美国国防部长罗伯特•盖茨(Robert Gates)都曾对美国与中国及亚洲其它地区的密切接触做出辩护。盖茨在亚洲安全大会上表示:“在这个迅速全球化的世界,亚洲已变成重心。”

迄今为止,美国两位总统候选人都没有就亚洲政策谈及很多,他们的竞选主题是美国经济和伊拉克问题。美国企业领袖对美国民主党竞选初期的民粹主义反华 言论表示担心,他们希望总统候选人继续少说。但他们很清楚,奥巴马是最糟糕的冒犯者。他指责中国操纵汇率,并反对与韩国达成贸易协议。

相比之下,信奉自由贸易的麦凯恩与参议员约瑟夫•利伯曼(Joseph Lieberman) 在《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journal)撰文指出,15年来,美国与亚洲贸易额增长3倍,创造了美国的就业和亚洲的财富。他们写道,美国与中国有着共同利益,这些可能成为两国在 气候变化、贸易和核扩散问题上建立“强有力合作伙伴关系”的基础。

美国总统候选人应公开为美国与亚洲的关系喝采,而不要为了得到蓝领阶层的几张选票,躲在欺骗性的经济民族主义屏风后。自上世纪70年代以来,亚洲和美国都对彼此的繁荣做出了不可估量的贡献。让这一切面临风险的总统是愚蠢的。

译者/梁艳裳



AMERICAN CANDIDATES IGNORE ASIA AT THEIR PERIL

亚洲富人财富总额有望在2012年超过欧洲
英国《金融时报》彼得·塔尔·拉森(Peter Thal Larsen)伦敦报道

2008年6月21日 星期六

China Is Urged To Conserve Resources

China Is Urged To Conserve Resources

2008年06月11日10:59
China is using double the amount of water, land and other natural resources that its ecosystem can provide over the long term, according to a new study by Chinese and international scientists.

The study of China's 'ecological footprint' -- which measures use of a range of natural resources such as farmland, timber, water, coal and even land for garbage dumps -- found that China still ranked low relative to the size of its population.

Still, China's use of resources has roughly doubled since the 1960s, said the study, published Tuesday by international environmental group WWF and the China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development.

The study warned if China were to consume as much as the U.S. on a per-person basis, 'China would demand the available capacity of the entire planet.'

The study used data mainly from 2003, the latest period for which a full range of data were available, WWF said in a statement. The results highlight a trend the authors say is continuing.

According to the study, China ranked 69th in the world in its use of resources per person, using just less than Syria. The U.S. was the second-highest country by that measure, after United Arab Emirates, while Japan ranked 27th.

The study defines a country's ecological footprint as the amount of biologically productive land and water area needed to meet the demands of the population.

China's average ecological footprint was only 1.6 hectares (3.9 acres) per person, the study found, far below the global average of 2.2 hectares. But in terms of what natural resources it can supply itself, China was calculated at 0.8 hectare, meaning it has a resources-deficit equal to half its need.

To make up for some of that deficit, China imports raw materials from countries such as Canada, Indonesia and the U.S. But much of that is then re-exported in the form of finished goods to the West, leaving China a net exporter of natural resources, the study found.

China needs to implement easy short-term solutions, such as using more energy-efficient light bulbs, but also look at longer-term planning, the study says. The country has 15% of the world's global 'biological capacity' -- the capacity to produce useful biological materials and to absorb waste -- compared with about 20% for the U.S.

'In the next 10 to 20 years, China's consumption will likely continue to pose threats to China's own ecosystems and place increasing pressures on global biocapacity,' the study says.

Li Lin, head of conservation strategies in China for WWF, said the study's most important point is that 'one can only manage what one can measure.'

China's leaders, she said, are 'taking the challenge on their shoulders, saying they are looking at this objectively; let's find out the real impact and what we can propose to change it.'

In at least one key area, China's leaders are resisting painful steps that some experts say could quickly boost efficiency: repealing state subsidies for energy products.

Tuesday, the head of China's State Energy Bureau, which oversees energy policy, reaffirmed a commitment to price controls for fuel products, saying they are necessary to maintain social stability. Zhang Guobao said China is committed to liberalizing fuel prices eventually, but that it has been delayed by the sharp rise in global oil prices, the Xinhua news agency reported. Passing on more of the cost of crude oil to end users could hurt industry and agriculture, which are heavily reliant on diesel fuel.

China last raised fuel prices in November, while there has been a near doubling in the international price of crude since that time. That has left domestic fuel prices about one-third lower than international rates.

Where other consumers such as Americans have felt the pain of rising crude and started using less, China oil demand continues to rise because consumers are insulated. Some experts believe raising fuel prices would help increase China's energy efficiency and reduce pollution by encouraging less use.

Tuesday, the Paris-based International Energy Agency raised its forecasts for China's growth in oil demand this year to 5.5%, from an earlier estimate of 4.9%, citing reconstruction efforts after last month's giant earthquake. The IEA now expects China to consume an average of about eight million barrels a day this year.

Shai Oster
本文涉及主題


中國自然資源消費形勢嚴峻

2008年06月11日10:59
項最新研究發現﹐中國目前的自然資源消耗水平已經達到其生態系統長期供給能力的兩倍。

國 際環境組織世界自然基金會(WWF)與中國環境與發展國際合作委員會(China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development)週二共同發佈了《中國生態足跡報告》。生態足跡通過農田、木材、水、煤炭以及垃圾處理用地等一系列自然資源的使用量﹐來衡量人類 對大自然的需求狀況。

報告發現﹐中國的人均生態足跡仍在世界上居於較低水平﹔但自上世紀六十年代以來﹐中國消耗的生態資源增加了近一倍。

報告警告稱﹐如果中國的人均資源消耗達到美國的水平﹐“那麼中國將需要全球的可用生物承載力。”

世界自然基金會發表聲明稱﹐報告主要使用了2003年的數據﹐這是目前可用的最新的全面數據。但報告作者表示﹐研究結果反映了目前仍在持續的趨勢。

報告稱﹐中國2003年的人均資源消耗量居世界第69位﹐略低於敘利亞。美國在這項指標中排名世界第二﹐阿聯酋高居第一﹐日本則位列第27位。

根據報告的定義﹐一個國家的生態足跡指的是滿足該國人口需求的、具有生物生產力的土地與水域的面積。

研究發現﹐中國人均生態足跡僅為1.6公頃﹐遠低於2.2公頃的世界平均水平。但中國所能提供的自然資源經計算僅為人均0.8公頃﹐這意味著中國消耗了相當於其自身生態系統供給能力兩倍的資源。

為了彌補其中部分缺口﹐中國從加拿大、印度及美國等國家進口原材料。但研究發現﹐其中部分原材料隨後又通過製成品的形式再出口到西方國家﹐這使得中國成為自然資源的淨出口國。

報告建議﹐中國可以採取簡單易行的短期措施﹐例如推廣使用節能燈泡﹐同時著眼於長期規劃。中國擁有“全球生物承載力”(提供有用生物材料與吸納廢物的能力)的15%﹐美國則消耗了大約20%。

報告表示﹐未來一、二十年內﹐中國的消耗水平可能仍將對其自身的生態系統構成威脅﹐並對全球生物承載力施加更大的壓力。

世界自然基金會駐中國項目戰略總監李琳表示﹐這項研究最重要的意義是“可衡量的才是可控制的”。

她說﹐中國領導人願意接受這樣的挑戰﹐他們表示﹕要客觀看待這一問題﹔找出這一問題的實際影響﹐並提出相應的對策。

但是﹐至少在能源產品補貼這一關鍵問題上﹐中國領導人仍拒作出取消補貼的痛苦決定﹐而一些專家認為﹐取消補貼也許可以迅速提高能效。

中 國國家能源局局長張國寶週二重申﹐中國將暫緩成品油價格改革﹐他表示這有利於社會經濟穩定。據新華社報導﹐張國寶表示﹐中國也計劃最終放開成品油價格﹐但 全球油價飆升使得這一工作被迫暫緩。如果快速推進成品油價格與國際接軌﹐必將對工業、農業等嚴重依賴柴油的產業產生巨大衝擊。

中國最後一次上調成品油價格是在去年11月﹐而此後國際原油價格飆升了近一倍。這使得中國國內成品油價格較國際價格低三分之一左右。

美國等國家的消費者已經感受到了原油價格飆升的衝擊﹐並開始減少石油消耗﹔但與此同時﹐由於中國消費者受到成品油價格政策的保護﹐中國的石油需求仍在增長。一些專家認為﹐上調成品油價格或能減少消耗﹐進而有助於提高能效並降低污染。

總部位於巴黎的國際能源署(International Energy Agency)週二表示﹐考慮到上個月四川大地震的災後重建因素﹐決定將今年中國石油需求增長預期從早些時候的4.9%上調至5.5%。該機構目前預計﹐今年中國日均石油需求約為800萬桶。

Shai Oster

中日共同開發東海氣田

WSJ

中日接近達成協議 共同開發東海氣田

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2008年06月17日10:08
國與日本正接近達成一致﹐計劃共同開發雙方爭議海域的天然氣田﹔這個困擾兩國關係數年的問題有望得到化解。

若這兩個亞洲最大的經濟體能就此達成協議﹐則標志著兩國關係的明顯改善。過去十年中的大多數時間里﹐中日一直避免高層接觸﹐兩國對立也日趨激烈。

北京與日本在許多問題上存有爭議﹐而東海天然氣田紛爭可能是其中最為危險的﹐因為這涉及到主權糾紛。該海域的緊張局勢不斷升溫﹐以致於兩國均派出海軍艦船在該地區頻繁巡邏。

爭 議之處在於兩國各自宣佈的專屬經濟區在中國東海相互重疊。中國媒體此前報導﹐北京已經開始開發春曉氣田(日本稱為白樺氣田)。儘管春曉氣田的海面開採作業 位於毫無爭議的中國海域一側﹐但日本擔心其經濟區海域的天然氣可能會因“吸管原理”被中國吸走。中國方面對此並不認同。

日本經濟產業省副大臣高尾北太(Takao Kitabata)表示﹐談判正處於最後階段﹐日本計劃對春曉氣田進行投資。他拒絕透露協議可能的達成時間。

中國外交部證實了談判的進展。外交部發言人姜瑜在新聞發佈會上表示﹐談判取得了重大進展﹔雙方目前正在敲定最終細節問題。

兩國自2004年起就一直圍繞著氣田問題進行談判。但在當時兩國關係冷淡的背景下﹐談判工作進展緩解。許多中國人認為﹐日本對待上世紀30年代侵華戰爭的態度無法令人滿意。2005年﹐中國許多城市爆發了反日遊行。

然而﹐過去的兩年中日關係一直呈現回暖跡象﹔中國國家主席胡錦濤5月份訪問日本更是大大拉近了兩國關係﹐這是中國國家主席10年來首次對日本進行國事訪問。在出訪之前﹐胡錦濤談到了兩國關係的“暖春”。一週之後﹐中國發生強烈地震﹐日本是最先接到中國政府援助請求的國家。

東海氣田聯合開發協議也將是日本首相福田康夫(Yasuo Fukuda)的重大外交成就﹐他一直面臨著在野黨佔據參議院多數席位的日本國會的壓力。

Mari Iwata / Sebastian Moffett

2008年6月19日 星期四

China Stifles Complaints 四川地震遇難學生家長上訪受阻

China Stifles Complaints

2008年06月18日11:31
Local Chinese officials are stepping up attempts to stifle complaints from parents whose children died in collapsed schools in last month's earthquake, even as authorities reiterate pledges to determine why many schools fell -- and prosecute any wrongdoing in their construction.

Officials in this wrecked coal-mining town are barring parents from traveling to see more senior officials about their complaints. Officials have prevented foreign reporters from accessing areas where schools collapsed, including this town northwest of the provincial capital Chengdu, and stopped parents from speaking with reporters elsewhere, and in some cases have threatened parents trying to voice their anger. Parents said they are frustrated with the pace of investigations into why many schools became deathtraps in the earthquake.

Parents of Xianger teenagers killed when the local middle school collapsed tried to board buses on both June 12 and June 13 to seek answers from government officials in Dujiangyan, a bigger city in the quake area. They were ordered off the vehicles by local Communist Party officials and police officers, several parents said Tuesday.

'We want an explanation,' says He Jiyun, whose 15-year-old daughter, Pan Ting, died in the Xianger Middle School. More than 300 students were killed in the school's collapse, more than triple the number killed throughout the rest of the town, residents say. The cause 'must be the building quality,' says Ms. He.

The deaths of thousands of students in what the government says was about 7,000 destroyed classrooms and dormitory rooms is proving the most politically sensitive aspect of the earthquake that hit Sichuan May 12.

China's central government promises parents will ultimately get answers, and few of them seem to doubt the sincerity of Beijing's pledge. But they are worried about the length of the process, when parents, teachers and students at several schools said there is ample evidence that shoddy construction, and sometimes corruption, were to blame.

Officials in some Sichuan schools have pledged to update parents on the investigations. Such briefings have sometimes disappointed parents because officials have used them to make offers of compensation and ask for more time -- noting the government faces a massive and complex challenge to address the needs of the millions of survivors.

'You should be confident that the provincial government will work out a plan for you and I'm sure it will be a good plan,' Deyang City Vice Mayor Zhang Jianming told parents in the town of Mianzhu on Sunday. He asked parents of students killed in Dongqi Middle School to stop gathering publicly and instead file complaints with the correct government office.

In some cases, Chinese officials have directed thinly veiled threats at parents. In a letter sent to parents of at least two Sichuan schools this month, authorities warned that foreign agents, including members of an outlawed spiritual sect called Falun Gong, are manipulating the situation to damage China's credibility and ruin the Beijing Summer Olympic Games.

'Currently a small number of people with ulterior motives, including some Falun Gong followers and some malfeasant persons from home or abroad, are attempting to use your sadness to foster a big story,' said the June 8 letter, distributed by officials to parents of victims at Dongqi Middle School. It urged them not to 'lose their wits' and offers a reminder that disturbing social order is unlawful.

Human Rights in China, an activist group based in New York, said Tuesday that late last week, authorities detained a political activist named Huang Qi, based in Chengdu, on suspicion of illegally possessing state secrets following his visits to the quake zone. In a statement, the group said it learned of the detention from Mr. Huang's relatives. In a recent interview with The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Huang said he had met with parents of Dongqi Middle School victims.

Local authorities also are reneging on Beijing's pledges that foreign journalists can freely report from affected areas of Sichuan. During the past week, police forbade a Wall Street Journal reporter from entering neighborhoods around four collapsed schools, and directed him to leave three such towns, including Xianger.

In Chengdu last week, Wang Guoqing, deputy director of China's State Council Information Office and one of the central government's top spokesmen, sought out a Journal reporter to say he was so troubled to learn journalists were being denied access that he had flown to Sichuan to help. Mr. Wang said anyone who blocked reporters didn't know the policy and promised to 'resolve it.'

Meanwhile, in the quake-hit town of Wufu, officials make daily visits to parents of students who died in the local Fuxin No. 2 Primary School to request that they stay home. Still, Xiong Yonghao, one of those visited, joins several other parents to defy the request and arrives every day at the flattened school at 8 a.m., the hour when their children used to start classes.

At the edge of the little town, banners say Wufu is in 'deep mourning.' Police block outsiders from getting near the school.

Mr. Xiong, interviewed in a car parked outside Wufu, said the parents have a simple request: 'a thorough investigation' of the school from the time it was built till today, 'and anyone who should be held responsible is held responsible.'


上訪

上訪

大陸地區指人民群眾到上級機關反映問題並要求解決的行為。

四川地震遇難學生家長上訪受阻

2008年06月18日11:31
國有關部門重申將調查地震災區學校倒塌的原因﹐並追究建築過程中存在的不法行為﹐不過﹐當地政府官員仍竭力阻止遇難學生家長的上訪活動。

特別報導
西部地區地震
都江堰市向峨鄉的官員禁止學生父母向上級政府上訪。政府部門還阻止外國記者進入有校舍倒塌的地區(包括位於成都西北方向、在地震中受損嚴重的向峨鄉)﹐不讓學生家長同外地記者交談﹐有時甚至威脅那些想表達憤怒的人。這些家長表示﹐他們對學校倒塌原因調查進展遲緩非常不滿。

向峨鄉一所中學的遇難學生家長6月12日和13日兩天曾試圖乘公共汽車到所屬的都江堰市上訪。幾位父母週二表示﹐當地黨委官員和警察勒令他們下了車。

何紀雲(音)說﹐我們想得到解釋。她15歲的女兒潘婷(音)在向峨中學遇難。當地居民稱﹐該中學共有300多名學生死亡﹐是全鄉其它地方死亡總數的3倍多。何紀雲稱﹐一定是學校建築質量有問題。

政府部門稱﹐在四川5•12大地震中﹐共有約7,000間教室或和學生宿舍倒塌﹐造成數千學生遇難﹐這已成為這次地震中發生的最敏感的政治問題。

中央政府向父母們承諾最終將找出原因﹐也很少有家長懷疑北京方面承諾的嚴肅性﹐但他們對調查可能持續的時間表示擔心。有幾所學校的學生家長、教師和學生都表示﹐有充足的證據證明豆腐渣工程以及腐敗是校舍坍塌的主要原因。

James T. Areddy
照片中的近景是向峨鄉中學垮塌後的廢墟﹐而遠處
一座新建且尚未投入使用的宿舍樓卻在此次強震中
基本完好
四川一些學校的工作人員一直承諾向父母們通報調查的最新情況。但有時這類通報會卻令父母們感到失望﹐因為他們總是利用這種機會表示要提供補償﹐或是要求給他們更多時間﹐稱政府要解決數百萬倖存者的需求﹐事情複雜﹐有很大難度。

德陽市副市長張金明週日在綿竹對學生家長表示﹕大家應該相信省政府會為你們制定一個計劃﹐我相信這是一個好計劃。他要求東汽中學的遇難學生家長不要集會﹐而是向有關主管部門提交意見。

有時﹐官員們還會暗中威脅學生家長。在本月發給災區至少兩所學校學生家長的信中﹐有關部門警告說﹐包括法輪功在內的一些海外組織正在操縱事態的發展﹐妄圖損害中國的名譽﹐破壞北京奧運會。

6月8日發給東汽中學遇難學生家長的信中稱﹐目前少數有不良動機的人﹐包括法輪功分子和國內外的一些不法分子﹐正在試圖利用你們的悲傷製造更大的事端。信中敦促家長們不要失去理智﹐並提醒他們破壞社會秩序是違法行為。

總 部位於紐約的中國人權(Human Rights in China)週二表示﹐上週末﹐有關部門拘留了位於成都的政治活動人士黃琦﹐理由是他涉嫌在前往震區後非法掌握國家機密。該組織在聲明中表示﹐是從黃琦的 親屬那裡獲知這一消息的。在近日接受《華爾街日報》採訪時﹐黃琦表示他曾與東汽中學遇難學生家長會面。

當地部門並未遵守中央政府有關允許外國記者自由報導四川災區的承諾。過去一週里﹐警方禁止一名《華爾街日報》記者進入四所倒塌學校週邊地區﹐並要求他離開包括向峨鄉在內的三個鄉鎮。

上週在成都﹐國務院新聞辦公室副主任王國慶找到《華爾街日報》一位記者﹐表示他聽說記者被禁止進入一些地區後深感不安﹐因此飛赴四川提供幫助。王國慶表示﹐阻撓記者的人都屬於不瞭解政策﹐他承諾要解決這個問題。

與此同時﹐在受災嚴重的五福鎮﹐當地官員每天都走訪富新二小遇難學生的家長﹐要求他們呆在家中。不過﹐熊永豪和其他幾位家長對此並不理會﹐他們每天早上8點都會來到已被夷為平地的學校﹐這也是他們的孩子每天開始上課的時間。

五福鎮的邊緣地區掛著“深切哀悼”遇難者的標語。警方禁止外來者靠近學校。

熊永豪在停在五福鎮外面的車上接受了採訪。他說﹐家長們只有一個簡單的要求﹐就是徹底調查學校從建設到現在的情況﹐相關責任人要負擔應負的責任。

Bollywood Dreams: Film Centers Get Closer

寶萊塢、好萊塢攜手造夢

2008年06月19日16:55
萊塢當年從好萊塢“借”了個名字。投桃報李﹐現在﹐它開始向好萊塢輸送金錢。

Associated Press
印度億萬富翁安尼爾•安巴尼(右)與斯蒂芬•
斯皮爾伯格(左)
印 度億萬富翁安尼爾•安巴尼(Anil Ambani)目前正與斯蒂芬•斯皮爾伯格(Steven Spielberg)的夢工廠(DreamWorks SKG)商談合作。這一潛在協議將是關係日漸密切的全球兩大電影製作基地之間的最新動作﹐也是雙方目前最大手筆的合作。它將有望給雙方同時帶來轉變。

對 好萊塢來說﹐印度意味著一個新的大金庫﹕憑借經濟的強勁增長和巨大的觀眾群﹐寶萊塢目前財力雄厚。通過合作﹐好萊塢還能進一步打開印度電影市場﹔這是好萊 塢尚未攻克的少數幾個主要電影市場之一。過去一年﹐華特-迪士尼公司(Walt Disney Co.)、索尼公司(Sony Corp.)旗下的Sony Pictures、維亞康姆(Viacom Inc.)、時代華納公司(Time Warner Inc.)旗下的華納兄弟娛樂公司(Warner Brothers Entertainment Inc.)都不約而同地提高了對印度境內媒體公司或電影製作活動的投資規模。

對寶萊塢來說﹐在洛杉磯佔據一席之地或許意味著印度電影多年來希望走出本國及鄰國、躋身全球頂級電影製作陣容的雄心壯志將得以實現。印度製片商還打算引進好萊塢較高的製片價值及寶萊塢歷來缺乏的好萊塢式的電影製作體系。

Reliance Big Entertainment總裁拉傑什•桑尼(Rajesh Sawhney)接受採訪時表示﹐不可否認﹐好萊塢是全球電影的源頭。桑尼說﹐任何打算在全球市場拓展的電影公司都不僅需要依託本地市場優勢﹐還要擁有好 萊塢的經營戰略。該公司總部位於孟買﹐是安巴尼旗下公司。

桑尼拒絕對Reliance 與夢工廠之間的談判發表評論。《華爾街日報》週三報導說﹐夢工廠高管正在與Reliance Big Entertainment商談合作﹐計劃組建一家新的電影製作公司。據知情人士透露﹐Reliance ADA Group旗下的Reliance Big Entertainment計劃在斯皮爾伯格及其在夢工廠的團隊今年晚些時候離開維亞康姆旗下派拉蒙影業(Paramount Pictures)後為他們提供5-6億美元的資金支持。

Reliance Big Entertainment上個月還宣佈﹐計劃出資贊助涉及金•凱瑞(Jim Carrey)、湯姆•漢克斯(Tom Hanks)、布拉德•彼特(Brad Pitt)等影星的電影。該公司還表示﹐未來18個月計劃斥資超過10億美元﹐擴張其娛樂帝國。

寶 萊塢其他公司也不甘落後地紛紛進軍好萊塢﹐只是規模較小。例如﹐美國眼下的熱門影片《破天荒》(The Happening)就是由印度的UTV Motion Pictures聯合製作的。該公司還聯合製作了其他兩部在美國成績不錯的影片﹕米拉•奈兒(Mira Nair)執導的《同名之人》(The Namesake)和克里斯•洛克(Chris Rock)出演的《我想我愛我老婆》(I Think I Love my Wife)。UTV Motion Pictures是印度媒體集團UTV Software Communications Ltd.旗下子公司﹐華特-迪士尼持有後者32%的股權。

UTV表示﹐其投資的每一部好萊塢電影都掙了錢。儘管UTV仍將印地語電影視為主要業務﹐但投資美國電影使其實現了收入多元化﹐還積累了適用於本地市場的電影營銷經驗。

UTV Motion Pictures首席執行長西達爾•羅伊•卡普爾(Siddharth Roy Kapur)近期接受採訪時表示﹐印度沒必要從西方尋找英雄或流行文化﹐“但我們能夠從西方電影行業的運營模式中學到很多東西。”

根 據普華永道(PricewaterhouseCoopers)的數據﹐印度電影業去年總收入為25億美元﹐不到好萊塢的十分之一。但過去三年印度電影收入 保持了大約17%的年增幅﹐而美國這一數字不到3%。總的來說﹐新興市場增長速度要快於美國與大多數其他發達市場﹕同期亞太與拉美地區電影收入年增幅也超 過了6%。

Associated Press
印度電影天後艾西瓦婭•巴克罕和
她的丈夫
此 外﹐好萊塢與寶萊塢也逐漸開始共享影星。印度電影天後艾西瓦婭•巴克罕(Aishwarya Rai-Bachchan)已參演一些西方電影。一家印度電影公司最近宣佈﹐西爾維斯特•史泰龍(Sylvester Stallone)將在其下一部影片中擔任角色。寶萊塢還有意通過與好萊塢加強聯繫﹐為印度歌舞片培養海外市場。

今年84歲的印度影星戴夫•安南(Dev Anand)近期接受採訪時表示﹐“我期待著新機遇。我希望為國際觀眾製作一部英語電影。”這位印度最受歡迎的影星兼有演員、作家、導演多個身份﹐還擁有自己的製片廠。

回 溯好萊塢的過往﹐外資公司前來淘金的歷史可謂久遠﹐成功者卻寥寥無幾。但Reliance Big Entertainment或許擁有更好的機會﹐該公司在印度與美國的電影業務都取得了迅猛發展。Reliance旗下影院擁有超過400個銀幕(其中在 美國有251個銀幕)﹔還計劃未來10個月在印度再增加170個銀幕。該公司首席執行長桑尼表示﹐公司的目標並不只是在好萊塢投資。

他表示﹐“我們並不打算只當財務上的投資者﹐而是想成為一個戰略夥伴。我們希望創造一個全新的電影生態系統並創造更多附加值﹐因為新興市場在全球相對重要的地位正在改變娛樂經濟的格局。”

Reliance 還能通過其在印度的銀幕、電視、有線電視、互聯網以及手機網絡推廣好萊塢電影﹐促使印度觀眾觀看更多的好萊塢電影。ICICI Securities駐孟買分析師維卡斯•曼特里(Vikas Mantri)認為﹐Reliance擁有如此多的渠道﹐該公司甚至可以通過手機和網絡傳播內容。

Bollywood Dreams: Film Centers Get Closer

2008年06月19日16:55
HOLLYWOOD gave Bollywood its name. Now, Bollywood is giving Hollywood its money.

The potential deal between Indian billionaire Anil Ambani and Steven Spielberg's DreamWorks SKG is the latest -- and largest -- sign of a growing closeness between the world's two largest movie-making industries that promises to transform both.

For Hollywood, India promises a new and deep source of funding as Bollywood -- fueled by strong economic growth and a massive movie-going population -- throws off money. Hollywood also could gain greater access to one of the few major movie markets it has yet to crack. Walt Disney Co., Sony Corp.'s Sony Pictures, Viacom Inc. and Time Warner Inc.'s Warner Brothers Entertainment in the past year all have boosted their investments in media companies or making movies in India.

For Bollywood, a significant presence in Los Angeles would mark the fulfillment of years of ambition to extend beyond India and its neighbors and to crack the highest echelons of global film making. Indian movie makers also are looking to import Hollywood's higher production values and a Hollywood-style studio film-development system that Bollywood traditionally has lacked.

'It is irrefutable that Hollywood is the fountainhead of content for the world,' said Rajesh Sawhney, president of Reliance Big Entertainment, the Mumbai-based company controlled by Mr. Ambani, in an interview. 'Any company with global ambitions needs a home-market advantage and it also needs to have a Hollywood strategy.'

Mr. Sawhney declined comment on the discussions between Reliance and DreamWorks. The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that the principals of DreamWorks are negotiating a deal with Reliance Big Entertainment to form a new movie-making company. Reliance Big Entertainment, part of the Reliance ADA Group of companies, would put up between $500 million and $600 million to back Mr. Spielberg and his team at DreamWorks as they leave Viacom Inc.'s Paramount Pictures later this year, according to people familiar with the situation.

Reliance Big Entertainment also announced last month that it would finance movies by production houses connected to Jim Carrey, Tom Hanks, Brad Pitt and others. It also said it plans to spend more than $1 billion in the next 18 months to expand its entertainment empire.

Others in Bollywood are doing likewise, albeit on a smaller scale. The current U.S. box office hit 'The Happening,' for instance, was co-produced by India's UTV Motion Pictures. It also co-produced two other movies with wide U.S. release: 'The Namesake,' directed by Mira Nair and 'I Think I Love my Wife,' starring Chris Rock. UTV Motion Pictures is part of Indian media conglomerate UTV Software Communications Ltd., in which Disney owns a 32% stake.

UTV says it has made money on each of its Hollywood films. It still sees its main business as Hindi films. But backing films in the U.S. has diversified its revenue and provided lessons on how to market movies that it is applying at home.

'Indians don't have to look to the West for heroes or pop culture,' said Siddharth Roy Kapur, chief executive officer of UTV Motion Pictures, in a recent interview. 'Still, we have been able to learn a lot about the way the studio model works in the West.'

Total revenue in India's film industry was $2.5 billion last year, less than one-tenth the total made by Hollywood films, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers. But film revenue in India has been growing at around 17% a year for the past three years while growth in the U.S. has been less than 3%. Emerging markets in general have outpaced the U.S. and most other developed markets: Annual movie revenue has climbed more than 6% in the Asian-Pacific region and Latin America in the same period.

Hollywood and Bollywood are slowly starting to share their stars, too. The queen of Indian cinema, Aishwarya Rai-Bachchan, has appeared in a few Western films. One Indian film company recently announced that Sylvester Stallone will make a cameo in its next movie. Bollywood also sees an increasing market for its song and dance numbers overseas that closer links with Hollywood could foster.

'I'm looking for new horizons,' Dev Anand, 84 years old, the actor, writer, director, studio owner and one of India's most-beloved stars said in a recent interview. 'I want to do a film in English for the international audience.'

The history of foreign companies seeking to hit the big time in Hollywood is long and the successes few. Reliance Big Entertainment may stand a better chance because it already has been expanding rapidly in the movie business both in India and the U.S. It controls multiplexes with more than 400 movie screens, 251 of them in the U.S. It plans to add 170 more screens in India in the next 10 months. Mr. Sawhney, the chief executive, says the company intends to do more than just open its wallet in Hollywood.

'We are not looking to be just a financial investor, our aspiration is to be a strategic partner,' he said. 'We want to create a brand new ecosystem and add value as the relative importance of emerging markets is changing the dynamics of the entertainment economy.'

Reliance also may be able to persuade Indians to watch more Hollywood movies by promoting them through its movie screen, television, cable, Internet and cellphone networks in India. 'Because it has so many properties, Reliance can leverage the content even on mobiles and the Internet,' said Vikas Mantri, an analyst at ICICI Securities in Mumbai.

Beef for S. Korea 光化門一帶一望無際的燭光

U.S. Said to Compromise on Beef for S. Korea
Lee Jin-man/Associated Press
U.S. Said to Compromise on Beef for S. Korea

An agreement in which the U.S. would not export to South Korea beef from cattle under 30 months old is was sought to defuse South Korean furor over beef exports. Above, South Koreans protested against beef from the U.S.


南韓總統李明博19日舉行特別記者會,針對美國牛肉進口問題再度向南韓民眾道歉,保證不會讓30個月以上的美國牛肉進口。李明博並稱,他已對美國總統布希表明,如果不同意南韓的條件,無法同意美國牛肉進口。

這是李明博一個月來第二度為進口美國牛肉道歉。李明博表示要虛心接受國民的嚴厲指責,將以「從頭開始」的心態,大幅更換青瓦台幕僚,並進行內閣改組。李明 博對於競選支票之一的「朝鮮半島大運河」計畫也表示,如果民眾反對,就不會推動。南韓國土海洋部隨後決定解散運河計畫籌備小組,中止委託的相關研究。

李明博在電視轉播的演說中表示:「只要我們不想要,超過30個月的美國牛肉就不會出現在韓國人的餐桌上。我們將爭取美國政府的保證,相信美國也會尊重韓國國民的意願。」

李明博表示,本月稍早曾和美國總統布希通過電話,告知假如不能禁止感染狂牛症風險較高的較高齡牛肉,南韓將無法同意美國牛肉進口。2003年12月美國出 現第一起狂牛症病例後,美國牛肉輸往南韓遭到封殺。李明博四月訪美時宣布恢復進口,希望藉此加速雙邊自由貿易協定的簽署。

南韓與美國代表為此目前正在華府進行談判,18日沒有達成結論,19 日再議。李明博臨時附加禁運較高齡牛肉的條件,雖有違反承諾之嫌,但是上任四個月支持率已跌破20趴,十幾萬人走上街頭抗議,李明博對布希只好「硬」起來。

李明博以感性口吻表示:「6月10日晚間,我在青瓦台後山上看到了在光化門一帶一望無際的燭光,當獨自坐在漆黑的半山腰上,看到布滿街頭的燭光隊伍的瞬間,我為未能令國民安心而深深自責。」

李明博說:「即使是再緊要的國家問題,也應該充分考慮國民的意見。之前沒有充分了解國民對飲食安全的要求,也未能傾聽比自己更關心子女健康的母親們的心聲。」

南韓在野黨對李明博的演說反應普遍冷淡,首爾街頭19日晚間也照常上演反美國牛肉燭光示威。










2008年6月18日 星期三

rare good news out of Burma

The New York Times leads with rare good news out of Burma, where relief workers are coming back from some of the areas devastated by Cyclone Nargis with reports that survivors aren't doing as badly as initially feared. Of course, this doesn't mean survivors aren't struggling to stay alive, but there's little evidence that the delay in reaching the Irrawaddy Delta led to large numbers of deaths or disease outbreaks.

幾篇"亞洲三強敵 Rivals"的書介

Rivals: How the Power Struggle Between China, India and Japan Will Shape Our Next Decade


The three pillars of the new Asian continent The rise of Asia’s three great powers has a precedent in 19th-century Europe. Will it, too, result in devastating wars?

By J. Michael Cole
STAFF REPORTER
Sunday, May 25, 2008, Page 14

Rivals: How the power struggle between China, India and Japan will shape our next decade

By Bill Emmott

342 pages

Harcourt


“The thing you have to understand,” a senior official at the Indian Ministry of External Affairs said of China and India, “is that both of us think that the future belongs to us. We can’t both be right.” Nothing could be truer of the future struggle for power in Asia — except, perhaps, that in addition to India and China, Japan, which until recently had been the principal modernizer in the region, will also seek to regain its position of leadership.

In Rivals, Bill Emmott, a former reporter for the Economist in Japan and, until 2006, the editor in chief of the magazine, shows us that no other region will have as fundamental an impact, or play as crucial a role, on the international scene than Asia in the coming decades. From intensifying regional trade, economic development and their impact on the environment to spending on defense and nuclear nonproliferation, Asia — with China, Japan and India acting as pillars — is transforming at a stunning pace, and the variables involved in this complex relationship are such that predicting its future course is an impossible task, something Emmott himself admits.

Still, by looking at key regional aspects — economics, defense, domestic politics, the environment, and history as an active contemporary agent — Emmott sees certain trends emerging that could help us narrow down the possible futures to “plausible pessimism” and “credible optimism.”

What quickly becomes evident is that China is now the center of gravity in the region, both in terms of its economic might and as the shaper of politics. Emmott, as do a handful of other authors, maintains that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is here to stay and that it has the wherewithal to deal with the number of isolated challenges that may arise domestically. Aside from environmental degradation and its impact on human health, no other issue in China has the potential, he argues, to mobilize the population to the extent that it could threaten the regime; nationalism, such as in Tibet or Xinjiang, is too localized to spread throughout China, which thus makes it possible for the CCP to rely on force to put down disturbances. Its economy, meanwhile, has become solid and mature enough to withstand most shocks.

Japan, no so long ago the undisputed regional leader, has been supine since the 1990s, but Emmott sees signs that its government has launched reforms that, in the long term, could bring about its recovery. A certain sense of urgency, inspired by China’s rise, could also accelerate that process and encourage those within the Liberal Democratic Party (and in Washington) who seek to amend the country’s peaceful Constitution so that Japan could become a “normal” country once again and play the role it believes it should be playing in the region. In Emmott’s view, discarding Japan as a passe regional power would be a serious oversight, as would ignoring recent reporting that a majority of Japanese support their government taking a harder stance vis-a-vis China.

Last is India, the oft-forgotten emerging power whose role as a strategic counterweight on the balance-of-power chessboard could be the determining factor in the future course of the region. While India remains nowhere near as developed as China or Japan, it is nevertheless beginning to make its presence felt in some regional institutions, joint military exercises, and through the modernization of its forces. Furthermore, sensing its utility as a means to tie down China, the US and Japan have struck deals with India that could help buttress the modernization of the world’s largest democracy. In fact, Emmott opens his book by arguing that even if it meant blowing a hole in the Non-Proliferation Treaty, US President George W. Bush’s nuclear pact with Delhi in 2006 was a strategic tour de force, as it added a third leg to the regional balance and ensured that Delhi would side with the US and Japan should relations with China deteriorate. In response, Beijing has continually sought to exclude India from regional multilateral organizations. Shifting alliances notwithstanding, Emmott is optimistic that the regional powers and the smaller countries that gravitate around them see no advantage in compromising all the progress that has been made in the past decade by waging wars, an argument that pessimists would argue was also made when similar dynamics obtained in Europe at the turn of the 19th century — with two devastating world wars to follow. Why Emmott does not believe a repeat of the European fiasco is likely in Asia is partly the result of the somewhat benevolent, albeit not always welcome, presence of the US, which acts as a brake on those who would be inclined to use war as an instrument of foreign policy. However, how Beijing perceives that presence will have a direct impact on the future direction of China’s military; if the US, alone or through alliances, is seen to be seeking to contain it, conflict would be likelier, or China could actively pursue a closer alliance with Pakistan to counter India. Other tensions, which lurk close to the surface, could spark conflict. From the unresolved and poisonous issues of Japan’s responsibility in World War II to the flawed Tokyo Trials, post-Kim Jong-il North Korea to Islamic radicalism and nuclear weapons in Pakistan, instability in Myanmar, the Taiwan question, unresolved border disputes, Tibet after the Dalai Lama and disputed islands in the East China Sea, Emmott argues that the likeliest source of conflict — which could draw in other powers, such as the US — will be accidents and miscommunication, or, as he puts it, one side misjudging the cost of warfare in the modern world. Wars by proxy — a tool of the Cold War that remains relevant today — in places such as Myanmar, Tibet, North Korea and Pakistan — could also be launched as the three powers position themselves for the future. As demand grows, competition abroad over natural resources could also serve as a conflict accelerator between those three countries.

Emmott’s “new” Asia is a dynamic one, filled with potentialities, whose global impact will only become greater as its economies continue to grow. Through economic exchanges and the birth of regional alliances like the East Asian Summit, the ill-defined geographical Asia of old is quickly turning into a more tightly knit polity that, for better or worse, will have a greater say in global affairs and whose participation in international bodies such as the UN Security Council and the G8 will be paramount if those organizations are to remain relevant.


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英国《每日电讯报》:中国--世界新统治者(中/英)
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邓小平不曾支持这种宣传。这位现代中国建筑师警告弟子们要保持头脑冷静,保持低调。政治局忘了他的建议。随着奥运将至,中国在世界舞台上前所未有的高调。关于中国如何改变世界的信息突然狂热起来,出版商无法自控。

  此类书籍大多数断言未来属于中间王国(Middle Kingdom 中國)。甚至世界银行都曾预测中国将在不到二十年内超过美国成为世界卓越的经济体。然而,值得回顾的是,在八十年代也有很多关于日本将主导全球的书籍。

  《经济学人》前编辑、日本专家艾默特(Bill Emmott)关注中国与日本、印度的关系。他提出一种令人向往的可能性,“生机勃勃的商品、服务和资本单一市场延伸开去,从东京到德黑兰,无处不在。” 然而,《对手:中、印、日角力将如何塑造我们的未来十年(Rivals: How the Power Struggle between China, India and Japan Will Shape Our Next Decade)》一书指出亚洲“微笑外交”背后的三国演义,这种权力斗争可能破坏它们共同的成就。

  日本前外相麻生太郎表示,“中国和印度互相憎恨了一千年,为何认为现在会有所不同?”印度外交部一位“非常高级”的官员表示,“你必须明白,我们(中国和印度)都认为未来是属于我们的。我们不可能都是对的。”

  政治不信任催生了军备竞赛,三国都急于打造更大规模的海军。中国潜艇偷偷进入日本水域,而印度从欧洲购买两艘航母,而且在建造第三艘。艾默特支持(錯誤翻譯 注意到)中国去年军费增长近18%,达230亿英镑;政府热衷于让解放军获得新装备。

  由于西藏、台湾和朝鲜这些明显的引火点变得更加明显,艾默特担心这些国家和西方之间的沟通渠道不足。“冷战时期,美国和苏联之间”由更好的沟通联系。

  日本也试图通过增强印度来抵消中国在地区日益增长的主导权。如今印度是日本最大的海外援助接收国。中国反过来伸张自己在印度洋的影响力,保障航 线的安全,它的船只从非洲运来石油和金属,并把它的廉价商品运往欧洲。中国主席胡锦涛定期访问拉美、非洲、甚至塞舌尔,展现中国到处攫取资源的战略。

  但这种洞悉不多。艾默特的书的问题在于二手资料。无法透露我们目前还不知道的事情。

  相反,卡纳(Parag Khanna)的《第二世界:帝国与新全球秩序的影响力(The Second World: Empires and Influence in the New Global Order)》则有很多来自五十个国家的第一手报道,他认为这些国家将决定我们的未来。这位30岁的伦敦经济学院博士生为一个智囊机构工作,实际上走遍了 他的“第二世界”:东欧、中亚、拉美、中东和亚洲。

  他在旅行中得出一个论点:世界正分裂成三个帝国,美国、欧洲和中国寻求拓展它们在发展中国家当中的影响力。

  他指出欧盟扩张如何自我更新永存,因为新成员担心变成欧盟的遥远边界,试图把它们的邻国也拉进来。

  尽管他的散射办法没能深度报道任何一个国家,但他的侧面冲击往往比艾默特的分析有更大的效果。

  卡纳认为,尽管十年前亚洲忙于处理中国崛起,但如今有了不同的感觉。中国变得越自信,与邻国的合作就越多。他援引一位马来西亚战略家的话:“亚 洲国家渐渐不那么把中国视为威胁,特别是由于它的崛起给它们创造了重大经济机遇,而且已经变成亚洲文化自豪感的聚焦点。”(作者 Malcolm Moore,此文为书评,评论的是Bill Emmott的《Rivals: How the Power Struggle between China, India and Japan Will Shape Our Next Decade》以及Parag Khanna的《The Second World: Empires and Influence in the New Global Order》)

  译文为摘译,英文原文:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/arts/mai...19/boemm119.xml

  

China: the new rulers of the world


Malcolm Moore reviews Rivals: How the Power Struggle between China, India and Japan Will Shape Our Next Decade by Bill Emmott and The Second World: Empires and Influence in the New Global Order by Parag Khanna

Deng Xiaoping would have never stood for this sort of publicity. The architect of modern China warned his disciples always to "keep a cool head and maintain a low profile". The Politburo has forgotten his advice.

With the Olympics approaching, China has never had a higher profile on the world stage. Barely a day passes without some startling and barely plausible fact: apparently a town the "size of London" is appearing on the Pearl River Delta every year.

Publishers have been unable to contain themselves over this sudden frenzy of information about how China is transforming the world. The piles of books about China seem to be growing at the same pace as those new megalopolises.

Most of these books pronounce that the future belongs to the Middle Kingdom. After all, even the World Bank has predicted that China will overtake America as the world's pre-eminent economy in less than two decades. It is worth remembering, however, that there were plenty of similar books about Japan's imminent global domination in the 1980s.

Bill Emmott, a former editor of The Economist and an expert on Japan, has looked at China in relation to Japan and India, the other emerging Asian powers. He raises the delicious possibility of "a single vibrant market for goods, services and capital, one that stretches all the way from Tokyo to Teheran".

advertisementHowever, Rivals points out that behind the "smile diplomacy" of Asia, a power struggle between the three could undermine their mutual success.

Emmott's argument is best illustrated when he does some basic reporting.

  Taro Aso, Japan's foreign minister, tells him: "China and India have hated each other for a thousand years. Why should things be different now?"

  Meanwhile, a "very senior" Indian official at the foreign ministry says: "The thing you have to understand is that both of us think that the future belongs to us. We can't both be right."

  This political distrust has given birth to an arms race, with all three countries rushing to build larger navies.

  Chinese submarines have sneaked into Japan's waters, while India has bought two aircraft carriers from Europe and is building a third. Emmott notes that China increased its defence spending by almost 18 per cent last year, to £23 billion; the government is keen to keep the plump generals of the People's Liberation Army on side with new toys.

  With obvious flashpoints becoming ever more apparent in Tibet, Taiwan and North Korea, Emmott worries that the channels of communication between the countries and the West are poor. There were better communication links "between America and the Soviet Union during the Cold War".

  Japan is also trying to offset China's increasing dominance in the region by helping to strengthen India, which is now its largest recipient of overseas aid. Japan financed the building of the New Delhi Metro and is now paying for a freight route connecting Calcutta, Delhi and Bombay.

  In turn, China is imposing itself in the Indian Ocean, where it needs to secure safe routes for its tankers to bring in oil and metals from Africa and take its cheap trinkets to Europe.

  The news that the country's president, Hu Jintao, regularly tours Latin America, Africa and even the Seychelles rarely makes the papers, but it helps to illuminate China's strategy of grabbing resources wherever it can.

  But this sort of insight is rare. The problem with Emmott's book is that it is what journalists would call a "cuts job" - a thesis culled from secondary sources. It is elegantly written and strong on economic analysis, but it tells us little that we do not already know.

  By contrast, Second World by Parag Khanna is brimming with enthusiastic first-hand reportage from the 50 countries he says will determine our future. Khanna, a 30-year-old PhD student at the London School of Economics who works for a think tank, actually toured through his "second world": Eastern Europe, Central Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Asia.

  "I never left a country," he promises, "until I had developed a sense of its meaning on its own terms, until I had assimilated a blend of perspectives from cities, villages and landscapes, based on conversations with a wide variety of people, including officials, academics, journalists, entrepreneurs, taxi drivers and students."

  This is the sort of reporting that newspapers can no longer afford to send correspondents to do, and his book is compelling and exciting, even if his bold claims sometimes betray his inexperience.

  The thesis that emerges from his travels is that the world is being split into three empires, with the US, Europe and China seeking to extend their influence among developing countries.

  He points out how the expansion of the European Union is self-perpetuating, since new members, wary of being the furthermost border of the union, try to convert their neighbours to the cause. Ukraine, for example, "has even sent maps to Brussels showing Ukraine shaded European blue - Mitteleuropa, not Osteuropa".

  Even if his scattergun approach fails to cover any country in depth, his glancing blows often have greater impact than Emmott's considered analysis.

  While Asia may have been preoccupied with China's emergence 10 years ago, Khanna argues, today it feels differently. The more confident China becomes, he says, the more it will co-operate with its neighbours.

  He quotes a Malaysian strategist: "Asian nations are gradually perceiving China as less of a threat, especially since its rise creates major economic opportunities for each of them, and has become a rallying point of Asian cultural pride."




誰是亞洲新霸主?

中、印、日爭鋒 撼動全球大未來


印度崛起,高度經濟成長連帶將使鄰國巴基斯坦和孟加拉人民脫貧。
美聯社資料照片
次級房貸風暴外加油價狂飆,眼看拖垮二十世紀以來美國的全球霸主位置。十九世紀末日不落的大英帝國退位,世界舞台的聚光燈由歐洲位移到美洲,眼前洞見世局 的經貿專家,相繼大膽預告:二十一世紀是亞洲當家的時代。但亞洲(尤其是東亞、南亞)不像美國儼然睥睨群倫的超級航空母艦,中國/台灣、南/北韓、印度/ 巴基斯坦幾個鄰近政治體間的衝突、對立和猜忌,隨時有擦槍走火風險,是第三次世界大戰的準火藥庫。抽絲剝繭替亞洲的紛擾變局把脈,前《經濟學人》雜誌總編 輯比爾‧艾摩特(Bill Emmott)新近出版眾家矚目的《三雄爭霸》(Rivals: How the Power Struggle Between China, India and Japan Will Shape Our Next Decade),自宏觀的歷史脈絡與經濟動線解析,剖述中國、印度和日本的權力競逐,對全球大未來有關鍵性影響。

亞洲政治高風險:中國

威脅日本,日本挑戰中國

艾摩特是知名「日本通」,1980年代出任《經濟學人》東京辦事處主任。他對經濟走勢的嗅覺敏銳,1989年全球看好日本暴衝的經濟表現,咸信會取代美國 成為經濟霸主,艾摩特獨排眾議以新書《太陽依舊西沉》(The Sun Also Sets)直指日本經濟發展將瞬時跌落如雲霄飛車,有如先知料事如神。去年首季,艾摩特又提出「未來十年是日本新黃金年代」觀點,強調日本企業的技術與生 產力,絕對能在高科技導向的全球趨勢中搶得優勢。

《三雄爭霸》數字說話:中國今年即將超越德國成為世界第三大經濟體;十年內,印度的經濟規模會超越殖民母國英國。十五年後,中國的經濟成長可望攻上高原 期,維持年增率百分之五;印度屆時仍可保有百分之十的高成長。2025年前,中國及印度「經濟生產成長三倍」的預估不容等閒視之,加上亞洲會「長時間持續 富有強盛」,共伴效應驚人。

但繁榮與安定不必然攜手出現,「經濟成長是過程,不是目的」,打造當今亞洲局勢的或許是經濟,但形塑明日亞洲的絕對是政治。「亞洲仍是高風險地區」,癥結 並非與西方的對抗,而是三個大國:日本、中國和印度爭霸主地位。中國崛起威脅日本,日本復甦挑戰中國;新興的印度成為經濟與政治的平衡勢力。


預估2025年前,中國經濟生產成長三倍。
美聯社資料照片
衝突熱點:台灣、西藏、

北韓,緊張態勢有增無減

艾摩特認為這是史上頭一遭亞洲同時出現三強鼎立,近似十九世紀歐洲的權力平衡政治,「他們彼此尊重或水乳交融就罷了,可惜不是,而且糟多了。」日本前外相 麻生太郎曾說:「中國和印度有千百年世仇,憑什麼會驟然改變?」印度外交部高層官員說得露骨:「中國和印度都認為自己是未來的領袖,顯然領袖只有一個。」 政治的不信任造成軍備競賽,眼前三強為競逐影響力、市場、資源和戰略利益早已鉤心鬥角:日本想藉拉抬印度來抵消中國日增的國力,中國極力擴展印度洋的勢 力,確保油輪和貨輪暢行無阻。

台灣、西藏和北韓等衝突熱點使緊張態勢有增無減,艾摩特擔心這些亞洲強國彼此間可能因缺乏溝通管道讓情勢一發不可收拾,「冷戰時期美蘇的溝通,恐怕還更暢 通」。他預料亞洲新興強權之間的緊張將持續,和歐美的既得利益霸權也有扞格,是否能冷靜處理,攸關本世紀的和平與繁榮。「經濟和商業競爭有極正面的效果, 但政治可不一定。」


未來十年是日本新黃金年代。
美聯社資料照片
光明面藍圖:由日本東京

到伊朗德黑蘭的單一市場

艾摩特替全球未來描繪出兩張藍圖:負面的是中國經濟轉型失敗、民族主義高漲,導致與美國和印度關係緊繃,甚至對台灣短暫「動武」;看光明面是中國成功轉 型,印度經濟成長連帶使巴基斯坦和孟加拉人民脫貧,印度、中國和日本緊密結合,與亞洲各國共創「由日本東京延伸到伊朗德黑蘭的貨物、服務與資金單一市 場」。

大好榮景中,「先知」艾摩特也看到面對的挑戰:中國必須調控經濟不過熱,也要妥善處理環境問題;印度要克服教育和基礎建設的積弱;第二大經濟體日本則有人 口老化的危機。艾摩特希望見到亞洲取法歐洲,建立歐盟及北約的經濟與軍事同盟模式,「亞洲也需要類似的分工」。種族、國家、信仰和認同都會引爆危機,最好 的牽制是避免一國獨大。艾摩特強調,亞洲的和平與繁榮關係人類的未來,亞洲大好是「二十一世紀最重要也最有利的發展」。






2008年6月17日 星期二

Investors Seek Asian Options to Costly China

Investors Seek Asian Options to Costly China

Justin Mott for The New York Times

When it comes to multinational manufacturing, Vietnam is fast becoming the new China. The electronics maker Samsung is building a factory in Yenphong Industrial Park, in Yenphong, Vietnam.


Published: June 18, 2008

HANOI — Canon is no longer building or expanding factories in China, but the company is doubling its work force at a printer factory outside Hanoi to 8,000.

Nearby, Nissan is expanding a vehicle engineering center. Hanesbrands, the underwear company based in Winston-Salem, N.C., is setting up two new factories here, as is the Texhong Textile Group from Shanghai.

China remains the most popular destination for foreign industrial investment in the world, attracting almost $83 billion last year. But a growing number of multinational corporations are pursuing a strategy that companies and analysts call “China plus one,” establishing or expanding Asian bases outside China, particularly in Vietnam.

A long list of concerns about China is feeding the trend: inflation, shortages of workers and energy, a strengthening currency, changing government policies, even the possibility of widespread civil unrest someday. But most important, wages in China are rising close to 25 percent a year in many industries, in dollar terms, and China is no longer such a bargain.

Even as companies seek other places to make their goods, they are stalked by overheated economies: in Vietnam, for example, inflation was 25.2 percent last month.

More than corporate profit margins are at stake. When the cost of making goods in Asia rises, American consumers inevitably feel pain. The Labor Department said Thursday that import prices were 4.6 percent higher in May than a year earlier for goods from China and 6.4 percent higher for goods from southeast Asia.

Companies are using the China-plus-one strategy to mitigate the risks of overdependence on factories in one country.

Multinational corporations are “thinking about all the world and keeping a balance” between China and other countries, said Edward Kang, the chief executive of Ever-Glory International, a sportswear manufacturer in Nanjing, China. Ever-Glory, which sells to Wal-Mart and Kohl’s, is building a factory in Vietnam.

Companies remaining in China are desperately seeking to control costs.

“We will maintain our capacity in China, but we will make it more automatic and reduce the number of employees,” said Laurence Shu, the chief financial officer of Shanghai-based Texhong, one of the world’s largest makers of cotton and spandex fabric.

To limit labor costs, Hanesbrands is building a largely automated factory in Nanjing. But the company is also building a factory in Vietnam, in addition to a factory it bought here, and two more in Thailand.

Gerald Evans, the president for global supply chain at Hanesbrands, said that compared with China, “we found more ready availability of both land and labor in both Vietnam and Thailand.” Hanesbrands will be shifting some manufacturing from Mexico and Central America to Asia.

In China, where rural villages are running low on able-bodied young workers to send to factories, wages are rising more than 10 percent a year for many assembly-line workers. And pay is rising even faster for skilled workers, like machinery repair technicians.

In coastal provinces with ready access to ports, even unskilled workers now earn $120 a month for a 40-hour workweek, and often considerably more; wages in inland provinces, where transport is costlier, are somewhat lower but also rising fast. While Chinese wages are still less than $1 an hour, factory workers in Vietnam earn as little as $50 a month for a 48-hour workweek, including Saturdays.

Texhong estimates that average labor costs for each textile worker in China will rise 16 percent this year, including increases in benefits costs — on top of a 12 percent increase last year. New regulations are making it harder for companies to avoid paying for benefits, like pensions, further increasing labor costs.

When those increases are combined with a currency rising against the dollar at an annual pace of up to 10 percent, labor costs in China are now climbing at 25 percent a year or more.

Inflation in China — more than 8 percent in February, March and April and 7.7 percent in May — raises the prospect that labor costs will soar even faster soon. That could push up prices for a wide range of goods exported to the United States.

China is also phasing out its practice of charging lower corporate tax rates for foreign-owned companies. By contrast, Vietnam still offers foreign investors a corporate tax rate of zero for the first four years, and half the usual rate of 10 percent for the next four years.

Foreign direct investment in China has grown by a third over the last three years. By contrast, foreign direct investment has more than doubled in this period in the Philippines, quintupled in India and soared more than eightfold in Vietnam.

Faster rates of increase in other Asian countries had partly reflected lower starting points. But investment is still growing quickly, and now it’s growing from high levels. For example, foreign investment in Vietnam reached nearly $18 billion last year.

A popular saying among Western investors is that Vietnam is the next China. Cambodia, with even lower wages attracting garment manufacturers, is called the next Vietnam.

But Vietnam has only 1/16th of China’s population and Cambodia has one-fifth of Vietnam’s. As foreign investors leap into each new country, they drive up the cost of workers and goods, a dynamic that makes it less likely that a shift in investment patterns will hold down inflation in American imports.

A recent survey by Grant Thornton, a global accounting and consulting firm, found that companies were more worried about attracting and retaining critical staff in Vietnam than anywhere else in the world. (China was a close second.)

“We trained them, we educated them and then they quit,” said Akira Akashi, the chairman of Nissan Techno, a division of Nissan that designs vehicles.

The company plans to expand to 1,400 engineers in Vietnam by 2010. Beginning engineers here still earn just $200 a month, less than half the salary in China and less than a tenth of American and Japanese salaries.

Even blue-collar labor is becoming harder to find. In addition to the size of the labor force, infrastructure is also likely to be a brake on how fast China plus one can expand. Most countries in Asia, including Vietnam, have not improved transportation links as quickly as China. Lengthy traffic jams slow down shipments and drive up costs.

Vietnam’s biggest selling point for many companies is its political stability. Like China, it has a nominally Communist one-party system that crushes dissent, keeps the military under tight control and changes government policies and leaders slowly.

“Communism means more stability,” Mr. Shu, the chief financial officer of Texhong, said, voicing a common view among Asian executives who make investment decisions. At least a few American executives agree, although they never say so on the record.

Democracies like those in Thailand and the Philippines have proved more vulnerable to military coups and instability. A military coup in Thailand in September 2006 was briefly followed by an attempt, never completed, to impose nationalistic legislation penalizing foreign companies.

“That sent the wrong signal that we would not welcome foreign investment — this has ruined the confidence of investors locally and internationally,” the finance minister Surapong Suebwonglee said in an interview in Bangkok.

Yet, like China, Vietnam does not offer complete tranquillity either. For instance, workers are becoming more vocal and staging more strikes, despite a government ban on independent unions.

Nearly 20,000 workers walked out this spring at a Nike shoe factory run by a Taiwanese contractor. The workers went back to work only when given a 10 percent raise, to $55 a month, and a larger meal subsidy.

That restive pattern is also evident in India, which is expected to have more people than China within two decades.

But many companies are leery of poor roads and congested ports in India, as well as long sailing times for components that must be shipped from existing factories in China.

And even in India, demand for workers with industrial skills or the ability to speak English outstrips the supply — and their wages have been rising by 10 to 20 percent a year.

That has led to worries about India’s long-term competitiveness, even for those investing heavily there, like Ford Motor, which is planning to spend $500 million on factory expansion.

“I keep saying to our people, ‘How long will it be until we’re priced out of the market?’ ” said John Parker, Ford’s executive vice president for Asia, Pacific and Africa. “The impact of that some day is you’re no longer low-cost.”

Keith Bradsher reported in April from Vietnam and later from Bangkok, Beijing, Hong Kong, Manila and Guangzhou, China.

推理大师新作《中国人》撼动欧洲文坛

文学艺术 | 2008.06.16

推理大师新作《中国人》撼动欧洲文坛

欧洲首屈一指的推理大师贺宁•曼凯尔(Henning Mankell)新作《中国人》刚刚上架,就成为各大媒体的热评对象。小说一开头,就是一幕令人不寒而栗的恐怖画面:

赫蒂斯瓦尔(瑞典)的郊外有一座村庄,村里有十余间房子,疏疏落落的,白雪覆顶。可是没有一丝烟从烟囱里冒出。警察在这里发现了18具血肉模糊的尸体,有些甚至遭到了肢解。显而易见,凶手以各个击破的手法连环作案,行动之快,手段之狠实属罕见。

著有《韦兰德探案系列》(Wallander)的瑞典惊悚名家曼凯尔素有"悬念大师"之称。这一次,他以血洗山庄的屠杀规模从一开始就将刺激基调定得很高,随后的600页文字亦不失水准地充满张力,时刻牵动着读者的紧绷的神经。

全球化时代的探案文学作品

《中国人》显然并非一本通俗意义上的"侦探小说"。曼凯尔善于将人物命运放置于时代洪流之中,而在这股力道强大的激流冲刷之下,疑犯、警官纷纷退后到毫不起眼的二线位置,而将真正的历史舞台让位给久远的过去、遥远的异国。

时间上溯到19世纪下半叶,故事情节渐渐在三个逃亡广东的亲生兄弟之间铺展开来。然而,无情现实很快就将他们异地求生、脱贫致富的美梦击得粉碎。不 法黑帮将他们作为廉价苦力贩卖到北美,加入到修建铁路的劳工队伍之中,受尽来自欧洲--例如瑞典的白人工头的欺凌。最后,三兄弟只剩一人活着回到了中国。

至于这段百年世仇与赫村血案之间到底有什么关联?这成了女法官碧姬妲‧罗斯林的调查重点。这位来自赫尔辛堡的女子敏感、坚韧、机智,承受着不幸婚姻 的负荷。罗斯林母亲的养父母也在这起案件中遇害,这更激励了她稽查真凶的决心。随着这起跨国大案的层层深入,罗斯林横穿整个瑞典,又相继追踪来到哥本哈 根、北京、伦敦。部分章节甚至是以津巴布韦、莫桑比克为背景--可以毫不夸张地说,《中国人》是一部全球化时代的侦探文学作品。

现居莫桑比克的瑞典作家曼凯尔深谙国际竞争的地区不公及民众疾苦,他以一种清淡疏离的笔调不断将读者推向风云际会的斗争峰巅,比起一部白骨累累的殖 民血泪史,一桩18人的命案又算得了什么呢?许多震聋发聩的设问是没有答案的,例如:"第一世界"国家究竟要对所属殖民地承担怎样的罪责?而作为一个经济 崛起的大国--中国,清偿历史旧账又会造成怎样的后果?

中国人真的要成为新殖民主义者?

贺宁•曼凯尔(Henning Mankell)Bildunterschrift: Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: 贺宁•曼凯尔(Henning Mankell)1948 年出生于瑞典北部小镇的曼凯尔堪称当代欧洲最负盛名的作家之一,其著作已被译成35种語言,全球销量超过2400万本。代表作品《韦兰德探案系列》本本畅 销,蜚声世界,并被搬上银幕,备受好評。《无脸杀手》曾获1991年瑞典侦探奖和斯堪地那维亚侦探小说作家协会奖,《燃烧的傀儡》则摘取2001年英国侦 探小说作家协会"金匕首奖"。

日前在接受《法兰克福汇报》记者采访时,曼凯尔表示,创作《中国人》的最初动机源于六年前的一个报道。当时,中国政府决定出资帮助莫桑比克建造一间 工厂。他们带来了自己的施工队伍以及全部的建筑材料。当然,他们也雇佣本地工人。不久,有传闻说,非洲工人遭到中国工头的虐待甚至殴打。这则负面消息很快 就被政府摆平。然而,曼凯尔不禁自问:"中国在同西方国家争夺非洲的原料之战中真的要扮演一个新殖民主义的角色吗?" 从那时起,曼凯尔就开始酝酿《中国人》的腹稿。

但另一方面,曼凯尔称赞中国在非洲建设方面发挥了积极作用,并对西方国家构成挑战。他说,西方媒体的谴责在一定程度上是出于嫉妒和伪善。他说,"他们总是关心非洲人的死。而我却要讲述非洲人的生。"

曼凯尔深信,"美国的头号经济大国地位一定会被中国取代,而这一变化将对每一个人的未来命运产生深刻影响"。纵观历史,人类社会总是在怨怨相报的过 程中重蹈以往的悲剧。许多早该被彻底清除的苦难反而以乘方倍形式迅速膨胀,并在高压政治体系之内产生危险的爆炸力。这是人类最大的犯罪。

Strait talking again 台海关系:复杂游戏刚开始

中国 | 2008.06.16

台海关系:一场复杂游戏还刚刚开始

上周中国大陆海协会和台湾海基会在北京重开协商会谈,并签署有关周末包机和大陆游客赴台旅游的协议。这是两岸两会在中断9年后的首次对话,各地中文媒体予 以高度评价,称之为历史性的会谈,并对两岸关系的改善寄予极大期望。这样的期望是否现实?这次对话对台海关系的前景将产生怎样的影响?德国之声记者就此采 访了德国科隆大学台湾问题专家哈尔伯艾森。

德国之声:海协会和海基会此次会谈签署了有关周末包机和大陆游客赴台旅游的协议,这是不是这次会谈最重要的成果?

哈尔伯艾森:会谈最主要的成果是,双方在中断相当长一段时间后,重新开启了对话。此外,这两个协议为进一步的谈判开了个头,使 双方触及两岸关系中更具难度的实质性问题成为可能,对话将向什么方向发展,还有待观察。

德国之声:您认为哪些问题更有难度?

哈尔伯艾森:根本问题是确定台海两岸的长期关系。现在达成的两个协议只是一种谨慎的开放措施。尤其是包机的做法,如果我们看得远一些的话,更是对台 湾主体性的一种保护。因为如果包机的目的是将来实现定期直航,这就让台商有可能把家人留在台湾,自己往返于大陆和台湾,而不是在大陆定居。

德国之声:海协会和海基会在会谈中还谈到了在台北和北京互设办事机构。台湾和海外媒体对这一规划十分重视。您认为这是一个关键的步骤吗?

哈尔伯艾森:据我掌握的信息,目前这一规划的具体内容还不是很清楚。这两个民间或半官方的组织能互设代表机构当然是个进步。但目前看来,办事处的目 的仅仅是为了方便旅游者的往来,而并非具有完整功能的代表机构,也不是台海之间建立的第一条沟通渠道。尽管有种种矛盾和紧张气氛,这样的渠道在陈水扁政府 和北京之间仍然存在,而且得到了充分的利用。

德国之声:人们很关心的一个问题是,台海之间能否建立定期协商会谈的机制,您认为双方离这一目标还有多远?

哈尔伯艾森:现在双方只是迈出了第一步,真正复杂困难的问题还在后面。双方现在做的,是通往建立互信的第一个步骤。迄今为止,台湾和中国大陆之间还缺乏相互信任,在某些方面甚至连理解都谈不上。现在通过对话和互动交往就是为了建立这样的互信。

德国之声:台湾民众对大陆的确缺乏信任。在江丙坤来大陆之前就有人担心他会对北京做出太大让步,要求他不要丢掉台湾的尊严。江丙坤这次有没有让台湾人失望?

哈尔伯艾森:这要看是哪一部份台湾人。从今年一月的立委选举到三月的总统大选,并没有改变台湾人对两岸问题的基本立场。仍有很大一部分台湾人对大陆 抱批评态度,他们大多是民进党的选民。我们不能忘记,民进党的支持率仍在40%以上,这一部分人是不容忽视的,他们对复谈,对两岸关系的接近持疑虑甚至拒 绝的态度。所以两岸之间任何进一步接近的举措,台湾民众,尤其是民进党的支持者都会密切注视。

德国之声:您认为两岸相互接近的前景如何?

哈尔伯艾森:我目前对此并不乐观。上周会谈的结果无关主权,只是解决了一些技术性问题。关键还要看北京是否愿意做出进一步妥协。不久前我在中国大陆 参加了一个会议,有一些国台办的官员出席,按他们的话说,大陆方面已经表明了最大的可能性,已经没有多少回旋的余地。不过,由北京政治领导层的两位重要人 物出任国台办主任和海协会主席,至少显示了一定的灵活态度,但更大的挑战还在后头。只要看一看中国在与台湾恢复对话的同时,加大对华盛顿的压力,要求美国 停止对台军售,就不难发现,一场复杂艰难的游戏才刚刚开始,其结果还难以预料。

德国之声:德国前总理施密特不久前在一次报告中说,他认为台湾将在20到30年的时间里完成同大陆的统一。您也许不同意这种说法。

哈尔伯艾森:这样的预测完全不能让我信服。马英九本人就曾说过,他们这一辈人无法经历两岸的统一。此外,尽管台湾很大一部分民众希望缓和与大陆的关 系,但只要中国不实现民主,不能证明大陆的政治和社会能长期保持稳定,台湾人就不会自愿成为中华人民共和国的一部份。因此任何对统一的预测和时间表都是缺 乏依据和为时过早的。

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叶宣

China and Taiwan

Strait talking again

Jun 12th 2008 | BEIJING AND TAIPEI
From The Economist print edition

Picking up where they left off in 1999


THE previous attempt by China and Taiwan to end their decades of official acrimony ended in a mutual huff. But now they are talking to each other again as if nothing had happened. At their first formal negotiations in nearly a decade, which began in Beijing on June 12th, the two sides are ignoring political differences and focusing on air services and tourism.

The two teams appeared on track to sign an agreement on June 14th that would allow Chinese tourists to visit Taiwan without, as at present, having to go through third countries (visitors to the Taiwan-controlled outlying islands of Kinmen and Matsu can already go directly). The new tourism arrangement is expected to start in July, along with the launch of weekend charter passenger flights. On their first day of talks, the two sides agreed to set up representative offices to handle visas in each other's territories.


Talks between China and Taiwan have always been couched in coded language, to gloss over their opposing views of Taiwan's status. The negotiators are from organisations whose think-tank-style titles are meant to camouflage their official identities. (In China's view there is no Taiwan government, just an uppity local authority.) China broke off talks in 1999 because of Taiwan's decision to end the pretence and call for country-to-country ties. The election in 2000 of a president, Chen Shui-bian, whose Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was implacably opposed to any hint of overlapping sovereignties, made China dig its heels in further.

But since the inauguration in May of a new president, Ma Ying-jeou of the China-leaning Kuomintang party (KMT), ambiguity has been back in vogue. The two sides have agreed to talk on the basis of what they call the “1992 consensus”. This formula agrees that there is “one China” but reserves each side's right to define this in its own way. This pleases China immensely but is politically more sensitive in Taiwan. The KMT soundly defeated the DPP in the presidential elections in March and in legislative polls in January, but suspicion of China remains widespread.

Mr Ma is calculating that the economic benefits of a flood of Chinese tourists to the island will help allay such fears. He aims to receive 3,000 a day, which would be a useful boost to Taiwan's lacklustre economy. Critics, however, say that his rush to attract China's big spenders is giving Beijing the upper hand at the negotiating table. Taiwan has quietly swallowed China's refusal to allow an early launch of charter cargo flights. China, it is thought, wants to protect its air-cargo industry from Taiwanese competition.

Taiwanese officials have shown their sensitivity to public opinion. Earlier this month the Ministry of Foreign Affairs instructed its overseas offices not to use the word Taiwan in official documents to avoid upsetting China. Instead they were to use the island's official name, Republic of China. But the ministry quickly backtracked amid a political uproar.


2008年6月15日 星期日

中國當局收緊震後宣傳口徑


應該說震後一周就出手...



2008年06月15日 格林尼治標準時間21:28北京時間 05:28發表

中國當局收緊震後宣傳口徑
黃琦
黃琦的天網報道了地震死難學生家長的不滿

中國新華社星期天報道,中宣部長劉雲山在全國宣傳部長座談會上強調媒體的正面宣傳引導作用。

劉雲山在講話中指出,當前的抗震救災宣傳要突出宣傳黨中央、國務院的救災部署和規劃安排。唱響萬眾一心的主旋律。

那麼,按照這種說法,那些不符合主旋律、不符合萬眾一心的聲音,就有可能被取消,被刪除。

上星期二,四川成都六四天網人權事務中心負責人黃琦和兩名天網網的站義工在去餐館吃飯時被抓走。

據總部在巴黎的"無國界記者"組織說,他們的失蹤可能與天網報道了地震死難學生家長的不滿有關。

此前兩天,用筆名在天網上發表有關地震的批評文章的四川綿陽西南大學退休職員曾宏玲被國安人員帶走。

這些現象都顯示,中國當局正在快速收緊地震後一度放鬆的宣傳口。

在法國的中國政治事務評論員張倫對此的解釋是,今年從年初的雪災到西藏動亂、奧運火炬境外傳遞事件,到四川地震和現在的水災,北京政府面對一系列嚴重挑戰。

張倫認為,中共當局面對嚴峻挑戰的傳統,首先就是鉗制輿論,壓制不同的聲音。

與此同時,中國媒體大力推崇著名作家餘秋雨勸導死難學生家長不要追究校舍倒塌責任的文章。

某地方報紙甚至刊登當地作協副主席的詩詞:"主席喚,總理呼,黨疼國愛,縱做鬼,也幸福。"

有了黨的關懷,在地震中被豆腐渣工程的校舍壓死了也"幸福",這種說法被許多中國網民罵作"喪失人性"。

張倫認為,在幾十年中共體制下,這種御用文人現象是屢見不鮮的。但這次遭到廣大網民的斥責,顯示了這種做法是弄巧成拙。

他還認為,從這一點看,中國當局的這種新聞管理方式與現代公民參與意識相距甚遠。

如果堅持用這一方法來處理社會要求的話,不僅對國家不利,對當局自己也沒有益處。

中国 奥运会前,两条新法令的通过让人担忧;四川省的监控工作进一步加强

11.06.2008 - 近日,两条新闻引起无国界记者的注意:一、两条加强对外国记者的中国合作伙伴和奥运会期间赴中国的外国游客监查法令得以通过;二、外国记者调查四川地震中由于校舍坍塌部分学生遇难,家长对此极为愤慨一事时,遇到警方的阻挠。







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