海軍上將威拉德(Robert Willard)對日本《朝日新聞》(Asahi Shimbun)說﹐他認為中國的反艦彈道導彈項目已經具備了“初步的操作能力”﹐意味著一項可行的設計已經定案﹐目前正處於進一步研製的階段。
在國防分析人士當中有“航母殺手”之稱的“東風21D”導彈將成為亞洲安全環境的規則改變者﹐而美國海軍的航母戰鬥群自二戰結束以來一直都是亞洲的海上霸主。
東風21D的獨特性在於它能夠非常精確地打擊一個具有強大防御能力的移動目標﹐這也是令美國海軍參謀們匆忙應對的一項能力。
威拉德上將說﹐這一系統的組成部件可能已經過了設計和測試﹐但美國方面並沒有偵察到水面測試﹐這種測試將觀察其對移動船只的命中情況。
他說﹐在這種導彈實現充分部署之前可能還需要數年的測試時間。這一系統要求配備最先進的導向系統﹐一些專家認為中國將需要十年左右的時間才能用它來應對真正的威脅。
東風21D被認為是中國阻擋美國飛機和船只進入其海岸附近水域這一戰略的重要組成部分。該戰略涵蓋了層層相疊的多級空中防御系統、海軍裝備如潛水艇以及先進的彈道導彈系統﹐所有這些在衛星網絡的控制下交織在一起。
按照東風21D的最大能力﹐從陸地上發射之後其精確性足以使它在900多英里（約1,500公里）的距離之外﹐擊穿即便是行進中的最先進航母的防御體系。
這將嚴重削弱華盛頓干預台灣或是朝鮮可能發生的任何沖突的能力﹐也使美國船只無法安全地進入中國長達11,200英里（約18,000公里）海岸線附近的國際水域。
外交部發言人姜瑜週二認為有關威拉德言論的問題應向軍方瞭解﹐不過她重申中國堅持認為其軍事的發展不會威脅到任何一方。
姜瑜在一次例行記者會上說﹐中國奉行防御性國防政策。中國的國防建設不會對任何國家構成威脅。中國始終是維護地區和平穩定的堅定力量。
儘管中國國防部從未在新武器投入使用之前對它們發表評論﹐但飛行速度十倍於音速、攜帶常規彈頭的東風21D已經在網上受到了軍事愛好者們的熱議。
本文譯自美聯社(Associated Press)
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Expert downplays PRC threat to Taiwan
‘PAYBACK’:John Pike of think tank Global Security questioned whether China would sink a US aircraft carrier, which would be deadlier than Pearl Harbor and 9/11 combined
A US military expert is playing down the threat to Taiwan of China’s new DF-21D ballistic anti-ship missile, which is said to be capable of sinking an aircraft carrier.
Four-star US Admiral Robert Willard, commander of the US Pacific Command, made headlines earlier this week when he revealed for the first time that the missile was now in the early stages of deployment.
There are widespread fears the missile could be a “game changer” and that it could deny the US access to the seas around Taiwan, making it impossible for Washington to dispatch an aircraft carrier group to help defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack.
The Financial Times of London reported that the missile could force US aircraft carriers to “stay away from waters where China does not want to see them.”
“These include the Taiwan Strait, where a potential conflict could develop over the self-ruled island which China claims,” it said.
However, defense analyst John Pike, founder of the Washington-based think tank Global Security, told the Taipei Times: “The Pentagon can counter this missile. We would know that it was aimed at the carrier; why would we doubt our ability to shoot it down before it reached target?”
“You are going to have to fire several interceptors per incoming warhead, making the economics less palatable, but we have the money,” he said. “This missile is not a game changer. It will not stop us defending Taiwan.”
“But there isn’t going to be a war anyway because President Ma [Ying-jeou (馬英九)] is getting sucked back into the mainland. That’s the game changer,” Pike said.
“If the Chinese launched an invasion of Taiwan, the US military would send an aircraft carrier. They are on automatic pilot to do that. If the Chinese in their infinite wisdom sank the thing, with massive loss of life — bigger than Pearl Harbor and 9/11 combined — there would be no more dithering in Washington,” he said.
“America would want payback. And that’s where you get to when you game this thing out. Would Beijing want to go there?” he said.
Mark Stokes, executive director at the Project 2049 Institute, who has written extensively on the DF-21D, also believes the missile can be countered.
“The missile has the potential to complicate US ability to intervene in the event of a crisis in the Taiwan Strait, but my impression is that the [US] Department of Defense can take action to counter it. We could go after the targeting systems, for example,” he said.
Rick Fisher of the International Assessment and Strategy Center sounded a cautious note.
“The deployment of a working anti-ship ballistic missile shifts the balance of power in a manner threatening to Taiwan and other Asian democracies. The US military currently lacks a decisive weapon that can defend ships, meaning it must attack Chinese missiles on land or guidance systems in space, all of which is most destabilizing,” he said.
The Financial Times said the land-based missile was designed to target and track aircraft carrier groups with the help of satellites, unmanned aerial vehicles and over-the-horizon radar.
Earlier this year there were reports that the DF-21D was undergoing extensive testing, that China had started production of missile motors and that it was eventually to be deployed at a nuclear base near Shaoguan in Guangdong Province.
Still, defense analysts believed its deployment was years away.
However, earlier this week Willard told Japan’s Asahi Shimbun that while the missile was still being developed, it was now in the early stages of deployment.
“We have not seen an over-water test of the entire system,” he said.
The missile has an expanded capability that ranged “beyond the first island chain and overlaps countries in the region,” he said.
Andrew Erickson, a professor at the US Naval War College, said the admiral’s comments on the missile deployment meant that China must have conducted a rigorous testing program.
While the missile was “doubtless an area of continuous challenge and improvement,” Erickson said, its command, control, communications, computers, information, surveillance and reconnaissance infrastructure must be sufficient at this stage to support its use.
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