China and India mask a regional slowdown

2010年12月03日 08:07 AM

中印繁荣难掩亚洲颓势

China and India mask a regional slowdown

英国《金融时报》 凯文•布朗 新加坡报道

Standing amid the shoppers thronging Asia’s capitals it looks very much as though the region’s V-shaped recovery is steaming ahead. India and China aside, though, a disconcerting slowdown is taking hold.	站在亚洲各国首都潮水般涌动的购物人群中，让人感觉亚洲地区的V型复苏正开足马力前进。然而，除了印度与中国，一种令人不安的经济放缓趋势正逐渐形成。
The region seems to be buzzing. Restaurants are full and exports and tourist arrivals are up. Memories of the brief recession of 2009 are obscured by a 9 per cent increase in gross domestic product for Asia excluding Japan in the 15 months to June.	这个地区看上去熙攘拥挤。餐馆中人满为患，出口额日益上升，来访游客也不断增加。在截至6月份的15个月里，亚洲除日本以外地区的国内生产总值(GDP)增长了9%，关于2009年那场短暂衰退的记忆已逐渐褪色。
Yet a slew of GDP figures for the third quarter tell a different tale: GDP contracted on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand, where it also fell in the first quarter.	然而，大量第三季度GDP数据却折射出截然不同的境况：在新加坡、马来西亚、菲律宾与泰国，经季节性因素调整后的季度GDP环比均出现萎缩，其中泰国第一季度GDP也出现了环比下降。
On the same basis, growth was flat in Taiwan, and only weakly positive in South Korea, Hong Kong and Indonesia. Even Australia rose just 0.2 per cent, compared with 1.1 per cent in the second quarter , as a rise in the commodity-fuelled local dollar hit exports.	按照同样的标准计算，台湾经济增长持平，韩国、香港和印尼也仅仅出现了小幅增长。就连二季度增幅1.1%的澳大利亚，也只增长了0.2%，因为大宗商品推动下的澳元升值影响了出口。
In other nations a mix of factors has constrained growth. Domestic demand has fallen in several countries, with government spending sharply down in Malaysia and the Philippines and private consumption easing in Thailand, in part because of a fall in agricultural output.	在其他国家，多重因素限制了经济增长。一些国家内需回落，马来西亚与菲律宾政府开支骤减，而泰国私人消费放缓——农产品产量下降是部分原因。
More generally, manufactured exports have been volatile as the end of a post-crisis restocking boom in the advanced economies approaches. That has led to extremely volatile quarter-on-quarter growth in some countries, with third-quarter GDP down a record 19.8 per cent in Singapore, for example.	更普遍地看，随着发达经济体在危机结束后重建库存的热潮接近尾声，制造品出口出现了波动。这导致一些国家的经济季度环比增幅出现剧烈波动，例如，新加坡第三季度GDP环比降幅达到了创纪录的19.8%。
A minority of countries have maintained solid growth through the year, including China, Japan and India, the three largest. However, Japan’s fragile economy is expected to slow over the next two quarters as consumption incentives expire, perhaps slipping back into the recession it exited in the middle of last year.	少数国家整个一年里都保持了稳定的增长，其中包括中国、日本和印度这亚洲三大经济体。然而，随着消费激励措施即将到期，预计未来两个季度日本脆弱的经济增长将趋缓，或许甚至会重新陷入去年年中刚刚摆脱的衰退之中。
That leaves China and India as Asia’s twin engines of growth. Both are expected to grow by more than 8 per cent this year – India mainly on the strength of domestic demand and China on a mixture of rising local consumption and sustained exports.	因此，中国和印度成为亚洲仅存的一对经济增长引擎。今年两国都有望实现8%以上的增长——印度主要依赖国内需求的强劲势头，而中国则仰仗本土消费日益增长和出口稳定的双重因素。
The growing divide between these two countries and the rest of the pack has been underlined in the past two days by manufacturing sector data for November that show activity sharply up in China and India but flat or weaker in most other economies.	这两个国家与亚洲其它国家和地区日益扩大的差距，在过去两天中得到了凸显。11月的制造业数据显示，中印两国制造业活动显著增长，而其他大多数经济体要么是没有变化，要么是出现疲软。
There were some signs of a manufacturing recovery in the slower growing countries. Purchasing managers’ indices for both South Korea and Taiwan moved up slightly, indicating that manufacturing in both countries may be poised for a recovery of sorts.	一些迹象显示，在经济增速较慢的国家与地区，制造业正在复苏。韩国与台湾的采购经理人指数(PMI)均小幅攀升，表明它们的制造业或许将迎来某种程度的复苏。
However, any upturn would be from a relatively low base. Overall, industrial production in Asia excluding Japan has been slowing rapidly all year, falling from 25 per cent in January to just 10.3 per cent in September, or 5.5 per cent excluding China, according to Credit Suisse.	然而，即便出现好转，其基数也相对较低。瑞信(Credit Suisse)的数据显示，整体而言，亚洲除日本以外地区的工业产值增速全年都在迅速放缓，从1月份的25%，降至9月份的区区10.3%，剔除中国后更是仅为5.5%。
Robert Prior-Wandesforde, an Asia economist at Credit Suisse in Singapore, says it is too early to call a turn in manufacturing production. At best, he says, leading indicators suggest there is “a glimmer of hope” that production growth could start to pick up by March next year.	瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)驻新加坡的亚洲区经济学家罗伯特•普赖尔-旺德斯弗德(Robert Prior-Wandesforde)表示，目前断言制造业生产好转为时过早。各项领先指标充其量表明，生产增长在明年3月前有“一线希望”开始提速。
Others say there is potential for a more delayed return to robust growth, or even a hard landing if inflation gets out of control, especially in India or China.	其他分析师表示，该地区经济有可能需要更长时间才能恢复强劲增长，但如果通胀失控，经济甚至可能出现“硬着陆”，尤其是在印度或中国。
India’s inflation rate was 8.58 per cent in October, in spite of six increases in interest rates this year. A further rate increase is expected in the first quarter of next year.	印度年内累计加息6次，但10月份通胀率仍高达8.58%。预计明年第一季度印度可能再度加息。
But China may have more to fear from inflation, which Hu Xingdou, professor of economics at the Beijing Institute of Technology, says could soar from its two-year high of 4.4 per cent – recorded in October – to 10 or 20 per cent next year. Any hint of price rises on that scale would probably trigger a drastic monetary tightening as Beijing seeks to head off social unrest.	中国的通胀状况更值得忧虑，北京理工大学经济学教授胡星斗估计，明年中国通胀率可能从今年10月创下的两年高位4.4%，攀升至10%-20%。一旦物价出现上述幅度的飙升迹象，竭力防止出现社会动荡的中国政府就可能骤然紧缩货币政策。
Frederic Neumann, an HSBC economist who remains bullish on Asia, labels inflation a “major risk” to growth for the region, pointing out that it was rising prices that damped domestic demand in 2007-08, dramatically slowing most of the region’s economies even before the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the US triggered the global crisis.	汇丰(HSBC)经济学家范力民(Frederic Neumann)仍看好亚洲，他认为通胀是该地区经济增长面临的“主要风险”，并指出在2007-08年间，正是不断上涨的物价抑制了内需，导致该地区大 部分经济体的增长速度在美国雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)破产触发全球危机前，就大幅放缓。
“The risks of another surge in prices are rising. Central bankers may then be forced to tighten [monetary policy] precipitously, eventually driving consumers and firms to cut back on spending. History sometimes repeats itself, even if not in exactly the same guise,” says Mr Neumann.	“物价再度飙升的风险正在加大。到时候各国央行可能被迫陡然收紧（货币政策），最终促使消费者和企业缩减开支。历史有时会重演，即使从外表看上去并不完全一样。”
	译者/何黎