南韓與歐盟簽FTA消除99%關稅

South Korea/EU economy: What are the implications of the FTA?

By The Economist
From The Economist
Published: October 08, 2010

South Korea and the EU signed a bilateral free-trade agreement (FTA) on October 6th. The signing of the FTA marks the latest step in South Korea's strategic push to cultivate export markets via agreements with many trading partners. The new FTA with the EU is supposed to come into effect on July 1st 2011, but given past difficulties with other FTAs—such as those with Chile and the US—there must be some doubt as to whether the two sides will ratify it promptly.

The deal itself looks straightforward enough. According to the EU, the FTA is supposed to eliminate 98.7% of industrial and agricultural duties within five years. South Korea's Yonhap news agency reports that the FTA will eliminate 96% of tariffs on EU goods and 99% on South Korean goods within three years. A key sticking point during negotiations was the automotive sector; some EU members (most notably Italy) worry about the European market being flooded with small Korean cars, and the new FTA will liberalise this sector more slowly. Tariffs on cars with engines over 1.5 litres will be eliminated after three years, and those on cars with smaller engines after five years. Unsurprisingly given the sensitivities concerning agricultural trade (and the vocal farming lobbies) on both sides, the FTA also retains tariffs on some agricultural goods, most notably rice. South Korea will keep the right to impose safeguard measures on imported beef. The FTA also proposes some liberalisation of services trade. However, according to Yonhap restrictions on foreign participation in the education and medical sectors in South Korea will remain in place.

FTAs are invariably accompanied by estimates of how much the economies are likely to benefit as a result. This is an inexact science, but a widely cited South Korean estimate is that the FTA will boost South Korean GDP by around 0.6% a year for ten years, creating 253,000 jobs in total. According to IMF data, merchandise trade between South Korea and the EU totalled about US$79bn in 2009. South Korea runs a persistent trade surplus with the EU, which amounted to US$14bn last year. In comparison, South Korea's trade with China totalled US$141bn in 2009, and its trade with the US was worth US$67bn.

Exports of goods and services account for around one-half of South Korean GDP, so the government is understandably anxious to promote this sector. From a strategic point of view, many in South Korea are likely to regard FTAs as especially important given the increasing global prominence of large and ambitious Chinese exporters. South Korean policymakers also tend to feel that South Korea suffers competitively from being squeezed between high-end Japanese exports and low-end Chinese ones, increasing the motivation to establish and strengthen the country's footprint in external markets.

Prolific activity on the part of South Korean trade negotiators would appear to reflect this. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the government has enacted FTAs with Chile, Singapore, ASEAN, India and the European Free Trade Association (comprising Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein). In addition to the latest pact with the EU, it has concluded but not yet ratified FTAs with the US and Peru. FTAs are also in various stages of discussion with many other countries, including Canada, Mexico, Colombia, Australia and Turkey.

Efforts to boost exports take on a special resonance in the current global climate, given fears of heightened competition between exporting countries for international market share. In many countries the prospects of domestic demand driving economic growth in the next few years are poor. That the global downturn has largely been synchronised further raises the stakes for exporting countries, increasing the temptation to regard trade policy as a zero-sum game in which one country's export success is another's failure.

Unlike many other countries, however, South Korea has the luxury of relatively strong fundamentals that may lessen the temptations of mercantilism. The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that domestic demand will grow by an average of around 4% a year in real terms in the next four years. Moreover, the fiscal position is far stronger than in much of the West. South Korea's budget deficit this year is likely to be below 2% of GDP, and public debt is only about 24% of GDP, giving the government scope to provide further fiscal stimulus if needed.

Despite this, South Korean attitudes towards free trade remain mixed. Protectionist instincts are strong, especially among farmers and labour unions. So the government has to tread carefully. South Korea's relatively high trade barriers compared with those of some of its partners further complicate the picture, as they mean that the country stands to give up more in FTA negotiations. For instance, according to the World Trade Organisation, South Korea's average applied tariff in 2008 was 12.2% in total, and a stunning 49% for agricultural goods. In contrast the EU's average applied tariff was 5.6%, and 16% for agriculture.

亞洲第一！南韓簽FTA消 除99%關稅

作者：經濟學人 　出處：Web Only 2010/10

相關關鍵字：經 濟學人

南韓與歐盟於10月6 日簽署自由貿易協定（FTA），協定應於明年7月1日生效，但由南韓與其他國家的FTA來看，雙方能否準時核可仍有疑慮。歐盟表示，此FTA應會在五年內 消除98.7%的工業和農業關稅；根據韓聯社報道，此FTA會在三年內消除歐盟產品96%的關稅，南韓產品則為99%。

協商的膠著點在於汽車部門，部分歐盟會員國擔心南韓小型車大量湧入歐盟，所以汽車部門的自由化會比較慢。此FTA保留部分農產品關稅並不 令人意外，但在服務部門方面，據韓聯社報導，韓國仍會限制外國人參與教育和醫療部門。

南韓預估此FTA將在接下來十年裡，會讓南韓的GDP年成長率增加0.6%。根據國際貨幣基金組織的資料，南韓與歐盟去年的貿易總額約為790億美 元，南韓貿易順差達140億美元。

商品和服務出口約佔南韓GDP的一半，南韓政府急於強化此部門的心情不難理解。中國出口商抬頭，許多南韓人應會非常重視FTA；而在高階日本產品和 低階中國產品的壓力下，南韓決策者也會希望強化南韓與外部市場的關係，南韓簽訂的各項FTA也反映了這點。

內需前景不佳加上全球經濟衰弱，許多國家更視貿易政策為零和遊戲，一國的出口成功，就是另一國的失敗。但南韓並非如此，其基礎相對強勁。

不過，南韓國內對自由貿易的看法仍然分歧。國內保護主義的傾向仍強，尤其是農民和工會。因此，政府必須十分謹慎處理；與貿易夥伴相比，南韓的貿易壁 壘相對較高，也就表示南韓在FTA協商時得作出較多讓步。