谷歌此舉可能會在美國重新燃起一場廣泛的辯論﹐即美國及美國企業應當怎樣和中國打交道。考慮到內容審查問題的政治敏感性﹐這種討論發生的可能性更大。
北京通信與科技咨詢公司BDA China總裁迪恩(Ted Dean)表示﹐沒有哪家美國公司面臨的問題更有可能影響美國對中國的普遍認識﹐以及美國國會的看法。
谷 歌進入中國相對較晚。它在2000年開始推出搜索引擎的中文版﹐但直到2005年才來中國開設辦公室﹐比雅虎(Yahoo Inc.)等競爭對手晚了好幾年。谷歌的遲來﹐讓中國本土競爭對手百度(Baidu.com Inc.)獲得了足夠的時間成為霸主。谷歌高層意識到中國存在的巨大潛在機會﹐但擔心進入這個市場將與他們“不作惡”(don't be evil)的信條發生沖突﹐也會與他們經常說的“全球共享共用(universally accessible and useful)”的宗旨相違背。
其 他大型科技公司也因為順應中國政府的要求招致了批評。思科系統(Cisco Systems Inc.)因向中國出售幫助政府實施內容審查的設備受到批評。人權活動人士和美國政界人士抨擊雅虎幫助中國警方指認一位中國記者﹔據稱這位記者利用他的雅 虎郵箱轉發了一份政府秘密指令的內容﹐他因此被判處10年監禁。
2002年﹐時代華納（Time Warner Inc.）決定放棄為其美國在線（America Online）部門組建中美合資公司的計劃。一位時代華納高管當時說﹐公司擔心中國監管機構可能會索要其用戶的電子郵件副本。
谷歌最終還是未能抵擋中國市場的巨大誘惑。2005年﹐中國網民數量已達一千多萬。2006年﹐谷歌為中國大陸發佈了專用網站版本google.cn﹐其搜索結果剔除了中國政府認為有政治敏感性的網站鏈接。
一名谷歌高管當時表示﹐“雖然移除搜索結果不符合谷歌的宗旨﹐但不提供信息（或等同於無信息的、嚴重退化的用戶體驗）更不符合我們的宗旨。”
所有在華經營的外國公司不得不承受道德困境的侵擾。傳媒公司則更需做出艱難抉擇。他們的運營領域是中國共產黨的傳統屬地。該黨一直視媒體為進行政治控制的一個重要工具。
儘管谷歌中國網站遵循中國的法規﹐仍曾經受到當局的打壓。去年中國政府曾公開批評谷歌包含色情鏈接。
哈佛法學院教授帕弗瑞（John Palfrey）說﹐“這是所有大型美國公司就此問題所做的最重要也是最大膽的聲明。谷歌今天明確表示他們對中國的忍耐程度是有限度的……這是令人激動的。”
Google Inc.'s announcement that it may withdraw from China follows its long struggle with the ethical implications of doing business here, an endeavor which has forced it to make painful concessions to its public embrace of freedom of information.
Google's move is likely to rekindle a wider debate in the U.S. over how America and its companies deal with China, especially given the political sensitivity surrounding the censorship issue.
'No issue with an American company has a greater potential to impact popular perceptions of China in the U.S. and the views in Congress,' said Ted Dean, president of BDA China, a Beijing telecom and technology consulting firm.
Google entered China relatively late. It began offering a Chinese-language version of its search site in 2000, but didn't open offices in China until 2005 -- years after rivals like Yahoo Inc. -- a delay that gave local rival Baidu.com Inc. time to gain dominance. Top Google executives were aware of the potential enormous opportunity in China, but feared that entering the market would conflict with their 'don't be evil' mantra and their often-stated goal of making the world's information 'universally accessible and useful.'
Other big technology companies had already drawn criticism for accommodating the Chinese government. Cisco Systems Inc. was criticized for selling China equipment that helps government censors. Rights activists and U.S. politicians slammed Yahoo for helping Chinese police identify a Chinese journalist who allegedly used his Yahoo email account to relay the contents of a secret government order and was sentenced to 10 years in prison.
In 2002, Time Warner Inc. decided to abandon a planned joint Chinese venture for its America Online division, with a top Time Warner executive saying that it worried Chinese regulators would be able to demand copies of subscribers' emails.
But in the end, China's allure -- the country already had more than 100 million Internet users in 2005 -- proved too great for Google to resist. In 2006, it launched a special version of its Web site for mainland China, google.cn, whose results were scrubbed to remove links to sites the Chinese government found politically objectionable.
'While removing search results is inconsistent with Google's mission, providing no information [or a heavily degraded user experience that amounts to no information] is more inconsistent with our mission,' said a senior Google official at the time.
All foreign companies operating in China have to grapple with ethical dilemmas. Media companies, however, face even trickier decisions since they operate in an area that is the traditional preserve of the Chinese Communist Party, which views the media as an important tool of political control of the one-party state.
Even though Google's Chinese Web site follows Chinese regulations, it too has been subject to crackdowns by authorities, including a public reprimand last year criticizing the company for allowing pornography.
'This is the biggest and boldest statement than any large American company has made about this topic. The clarity with which they have said today that there is a limit with what they will put up with in China . . . is breathtaking,' said John Palfrey, a professor at Harvard Law School.
Jason Dean
JANUARY 13, 2010, 6:39 P.M. ET
Google's China Threat Carries Long-Term Risks To Company
By Scott Morrison
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
SAN FRANCISCO (Dow Jones)--Google Inc.'s (GOOG) threat to pull out of China over security and censorship issues risks little in the short term, but the online search giant could find itself at a long-term disadvantage in a rapidly growing Internet market--already the world's largest.
Among long-term goals being risked, should Google decide to exit China, would be potential search-advertising revenue, the company's ability to push its Android software in one of the world's top mobile markets, and convincing manufacturers to adopt its yet-to-be-released Chrome computer operating system.
Financial analysts were mixed on whether Google would actually follow through on its threat to exit China. Some calculated it was a 50-50 proposition, while others said the company's very public showing made it all but assured it would back away.
"One does not make such a public announcement if it only intends to review its options," Broadpoint AmTech analyst Ben Schachter said.
Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster estimated that revenue from China could reach about $310 million, or about 2% of Google's total revenue, in 2010.
A Google spokesman declined to comment, other than to say the company's revenue from China is "extremely immaterial" at this point. He added that much of the company's revenue derived from Chinese advertisers was spent on Google properties outside China.
Of more consequence are the company's long-term goals. With an estimated 360 million Internet users and about 700 million mobile phone users, China has been widely seen as a market Google cannot ignore. Pulling out now will sorely diminish the likelihood that Google will ever be able to catch up to search competitors should it decide to re-enter the Chinese market, Pali Capital analyst Tian Hou said.
"They are losing half the world," she said. "Google is part of our lives now, but they haven't become part of people's lives in China."
Another concern is how a Google exit might impact its budding Android mobile operating system franchise and the adoption of its soon-to-be-released Chrome computer operating system, which the search giant believes will drive more people to use the Internet--and enable it to sell more advertising to consumers.
Some analysts said Chinese authorities might resort to pressuring such manufacturers as Lenovo Group Ltd. (0992.HK), HTC Corp. (2498.TW) and Motorola Inc. (MOT), to stop making and or selling devices that feature Google's operating software platforms. The problem could "potentially be huge," said Kevin Burden, analyst at ABI Research.
"It is likely that China and its manufacturers would have some passionate conversations about what advantages they get by using Google software," Gartner analyst Whit Andrews said.
A Google spokesperson declined to speculate on whether the Chinese government might pressure other companies to stop using Google software.
On the other hand, Gartner's Andrews said China is not a foundation for global media power, and Google will be able to thrive in other markets even if it remains absent in China.
"Google doesn't need China to be successful," he said.
JMP Securities analyst Sameet Sinha said Google has not been making much headway in China, adding that the company's opportunities continue to expand in online advertising and mobile, which would allow it to offset any lost revenue from China.
The company also stands to benefit by taking a strong stance to protect its users' personal information or privacy data, Collins Stewart analyst Sandeep Aggarwal said.
"The cyberattack in China is not a local issue but can risk Google's global franchise and business model, which is built on trust," he wrote.
-By Scott Morrison; Dow Jones Newswires; 415-765-6118; scott.morrison@dowjones.com
(Roger Cheng contributed to this report.)
*****BusinessWeekJan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Google Inc.’s possible departure from China may become a defining pronouncement that the world’s biggest Web market is an inhospitable place for foreigners.
An exit by the world’s most popular Internet search engine would follow those by Yahoo! Inc. and EBay Inc. and leave China without a foreign company operating independently to serve more than 330 million Web users. Google, of Mountain View, California, said Jan. 12 it may shut its Google.cn site and close its China offices after hackers tried to access the accounts of human rights activists using its Gmail e-mail service.
Microsoft Corp., the world’s biggest software company, and Yahoo rely on local ventures because China’s government censors Web content, and local operators including Baidu Inc. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. offer more popular services. Chinese authorities shut more than 100,000 Web sites in December in an “escalation” of its Internet censorship efforts, affecting traffic at both Baidu and Google, according to Tian Hou, an analyst with Pali Capital Inc. in New York.
“Internet companies operate in a lot of the gray areas in China,” said JP Gan, managing director at Shanghai-based Qiming Venture Partners, which oversees more than $500 million. “It’s kind of ridiculous that a country as big as China can’t allow the most prominent, popular Internet company in the world to operate.”
Baidu will pick up “the lion’s share” of Google’s search business should the U.S. company leave, Nomura Holdings Inc. analyst Jin Yoon wrote in a report yesterday. Tencent, operator of China’s biggest online chat service, and Sohu.com Inc. also will gain business, Yoon said.
Baidu’s American depositary receipts jumped 13.7 percent, the most in over a year on the Nasdaq Stock Market on Jan. 13, while Google fell 0.6 percent, to $587.09.
Google’s technology and efforts to tailor its services had made it the most successful overseas Internet operator in China, analyst Elinor Leung said.
“All the multinationals face a lot more pressure compared with local companies,” said Leung, head of telecommunications and Internet research at CLSA Ltd. in Hong Kong. “If you go against the government, it’s not going to make your life easy.”
Google will stop censoring results on its Google.cn site, the company said. China’s Internet authorities are seeking more information about Google’s intentions, the official Xinhua News Agency said, citing an unnamed “high-ranking” official with the State Council Information Office. Wang Lijian, a Beijing- based spokesman for the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said he couldn’t comment as he was unaware of the situation.
China’s foreign ministry declined to comment.
Protectionism
EBay, the most-visited U.S. electronic-commerce site, shut its China unit in 2006, and the San Jose, California-based company folded it into a venture with Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing’s Tom Online Inc.
Microsoft, of Redmond, Washington, formed a venture with state-owned Shanghai Alliance Investment Ltd. in 2005 to operate its MSN China online messaging service.
Amazon.com Inc., the world’s biggest Internet retailer, controls Beijing-based e-commerce operator Joyo.com, while Australia’s Telstra Corp. owns stakes in Chinese sites including Soufun Holdings Ltd.
“We’re certainly seeing more of a trend toward protectionism, but also a feeling that there isn’t a permissive attitude toward foreign companies generally,” said Duncan Clark, Beijing-based chairman of business advisory company BDA China Ltd.
Baidu Benefits
Baidu’s sales this year may rise to 6.2 billion yuan ($908 million), according to the median of 17 analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Google may earn revenue of as much as $350 million in China in 2010, or about 1.5 percent of its total, according to a report by Citigroup Inc. analyst Catherine Leung yesterday. Google will likely not permanently leave the market, Leung said.
Google’s possible withdrawal follows four years of clashes over censorship and highlights the challenges global companies face operating in a one-party state that controls the flow of information. The government uses what is dubbed “The Great Firewall of China” to block access to Web sites discussing sensitive topics including Tibet independence and the 1989 crackdown in Tiananmen Square.
China said last month it will require individuals seeking to operate Web sites to register online information. Companies need to show proof of their business licenses, according to a Dec. 11 statement by the China Internet Network Information Center, which is controlled by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.
Google and at least 20 other companies faced a series of “highly sophisticated” cyber attacks last month, the Internet operator said Jan. 12 in a Web log statement. The breach, which occurred in the mid-December, originated in China and resulted in intellectual property being stolen, Google said.
Increased censorship may curb Internet use, affecting earnings at Baidu, according to Pali Capital’s Hou, who cut her estimates for the company last week.
“Baidu may increase its market share if Google leaves, but it will be a smaller pie,” Hou said.
--John Liu and Mark Lee, with assistance from Brian Womack, Ari Levy, Joseph Galante and Rochelle Garner in San Francisco; Viola Gienger in Washington; Jason Clenfield and Pavel Alpeyev in Tokyo; and Tim Culpan in Taipei. Editors: Michael Tighe, Bret Okeson.*****
中国 | 2010.01.13
谷歌宣布考虑是否继续在华业务
谷歌公司在周二发布的声明中称，去年12月中旬，该公司基础设施遭到了来自中国的非常复杂且具高度针对性的攻击，导致谷歌知识产权被窃。" 尽管最初在表面上这只是一起单纯的安全事件，但很快就表明这显然是一起严重的事件。"该声明指出，不光是谷歌公司，至少有其它20家涉及许多行业领域的大 公司，包括互联网、金融、技术、媒体和化工等，也成为类似的攻击对象。而且，公司有证据表明，攻击的主要目标是在中国从事人权活动人士的Gmail信箱账 户。
谷歌公司决定，鉴于过去一年里中国当局进一步加强了对网络言论自由的限制，加上新近出现的攻击事件，将对其在中国进行商业运作的可能性给予重新的审 视。未来几个星期内，该公司将与中国政府就在法律范围内，是否可以运作不受过滤的搜索引擎进行讨论，如果商谈失败，意味着谷歌在中国的搜索引擎可能关闭， 谷歌公司在中国大陆的相关机构也可能撤销。
美国国务卿希拉里·克林顿发表声明，要求北京就谷歌公司提到的攻击事件做出解释，并表示她将于下周发表关于网络自由在21世纪的中心意义的讲话，并在事件进一步明了之后作出更多的表态。 
Bildunterschrift: Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: 谷歌的竞争对手百度
据法新社报道，周三，在谷歌中文搜索引擎上，一些过去常常被过滤的内容，比如涉及达赖喇嘛、六四天安门事件的网页和图片资料又重新出现，显示谷歌可能已经停止了对搜索内容的过滤。
一些分析人士认为，谷歌公司自从进入中国市场以来，一直与百度搜索引擎处于激烈的竞争当中，并且难以取得优势地位。此次宣布考虑撤出，也许正是谷歌 公司从难以获得成功的中国市场的脱身之计。据路透社报道，中国市场是世界上为数不多的谷歌公司无法占据主导地位的市场，它长期以来只能获得30%的市场占 有率，而60%的市场份额则被竞争对手百度占据。分析人士认为，谷歌此次与中国政府交涉的成功几率很低，因此如果该公司撤出中国，将给其他公司让出很大的 市场空间。中国的搜索引擎市场拥有40%的增长率，将自己从这样重要的市场割离可能会造成一定的长远战略损失。瑞士信贷集团的分析师张永恒 （Wallace Cheung）向路透社记者表示，谷歌公司此次发出的更应该被看作是一个在同中国政府谈判之前作出的表态，而不是真正的声明。鉴于中国市场的重要性，他怀 疑谷歌公司会不会真正走出撤离的一步。
也有观点认为，谷歌公司作出的表态，显示了外国公司在中国这样一个充满网络审查的国家所面临的艰难局面。前谷歌公司大中华区总裁李开复在接受路透社 采访时指出，谷歌公司的声明与商业决策无关，仅仅是由于中国的网络审查制度。他还透露，谷歌公司其实已经就这一决定进行了很长时间的痛苦考量，从去年开 始，该公司就开始讨论，是否要作出一个姿态，向中国政府显示它不愿意继续容忍严厉的审查制度。
在此之前，刚刚传出谷歌在中国的竞争对手--百度搜索引擎遭到黑客攻击的消息。据媒体报道，北京时间周二早晨，百度网页主页出现黑色，并有伊朗国旗 和伊朗网军（Iranian Cyber Army）字样。据悉，当天中午，伊朗的一家教育机构网站也遭到了攻击，有人猜测是中国"红客"所为，但该事件目前还无法得到可靠消息来源证实。
作者：雨涵
责编：乐然
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