China sows seeds of food self-sufficiency

這中文標題翻譯錯誤

中国仍面临粮食安全挑战

作者：英国《金融时报》哈维尔•布拉斯(Javier Blas)、 杰夫•代尔(Geoff Dyer) 2009-04-20

自从30年前步入经济高速增长阶段以来，中国一直面临如同世界末日来临般的警告：其庞大人口和不断增长的财富，将导致粮食紧缺。

总的来说，这些警告已被证明是杞人忧天。

中国认为关系到自身粮食安全的关键作物，即大米、小麦和玉米，基本上都能自给自足。然而，中国的农业贸易平衡已从上世纪90年代的略有盈余，变为大额赤字，这是因为它已成为全球最大的大豆进口国，只是果蔬和海产品出口部分抵消了大豆的进口。

不过，虽然最令人担心的情况没有出现，且中国抵御去年粮食危机的表现胜于他国，但中国政府仍需凭借有限的良田和稀缺的水资源，在气候变化的威胁下，满足本国人口的粮食需求。

考虑到中国的规模，倘若这些问题得不到解决，将对全球农业市场产生巨大影响，因为中国政府将须进口大量粮食产品，使市场供应吃紧，并推高粮食价格。

上周末首届八国集团(G8)部长级农业会议的召开，说明了人们对粮食安全的担忧加剧，在此之际，北京面临的挑战令人关切，不管是在国内还是在国际上。G8已经警告，假如在2050年前相关支出没有翻倍，全球粮食危机“将演变成结构性危机”。

迄今为止，中国对全球和国内挑战的应对赢得了赞赏。联合国全球粮食安全危机工作小组负责人戴维•纳巴罗(David Nabarro)表示：“北京认识到投资于农业的战略需要。”这一说法与英国《金融时报》采访的其他专家的普遍看法相同。

华盛顿国际食物政策研究所(IIFPR)专家、曾供职于南京农业大学的樊胜根教授补充称，中国的政策反应是受到2007年发生的粮食危机的刺激。

他表示，“全球粮食危机给了中国一个教训，”中国的政策制定者认识到，必须“更加注意粮食安全”。

中国今年表示，至少在2020年前，小麦、大米和玉米仍将基本保持自给自足，并希望届时粮食年产量能够从去年的4.7亿吨提高到５.4亿吨。

为实现上述目标，前年中国将农业预算增加27%，去年又增加了38%，今年进一步增加20%，主要是加大了在农业研究、基础设施和农民补贴方面的支出。除了印度，没有哪个大国如此大力增加农业开支。

但专家表示，尽管如此，要按计划增加粮食产量仍是一个重大挑战。

短期内，缺水、良田减少和农业生产率增长放缓等将是关键问题。美国农业部估计，中国仅以全球10%的农田和6%左右的水资源，供养着全球20%的人口。从长远来看，气候变化的影响将至关重要。

中国北方主重粮食产地已面临严重缺水的问题。两个最大的北方城市——北京和天津——人均水资源占有量尚不及以色列和约旦。环保人士马军表示，在华北，缺水和气温上升已严重影响小麦和玉米产量。

他还表示：“大米的情况更糟糕。由于缺水，大米很难在该地区种植。”

近几十年来，中国农民广泛使用地下水，挖掘了数百万个水井。但过度使用已导致地下水位急遽下降。与此同时，来自工厂的污染物渗入河流，已成为一个迫切需要解决的问题。

由于工业和城市扩张不断蚕食农村地区，良田也很稀缺，政府不得不下令限制农用地开发。

尽管面临这些挑战，但马军认为，中国近年在农业研究和基础设施方面的大笔投资，将有助于提高农业生产率。他提到以往取得的一些成功，如“超级稻”的培育。种植超级稻的用水量与普通稻相同，但亩产明显提高。

但其他专家表示，以往的成功并不保证中国能够克服当前的挑战。目前，粮食安全是G8成员国一致担心的问题。许多外部人士对中国仍心存警惕。

译者/岱嵩

China sows seeds of food self-sufficiency

By Javier Blas , Geoff Dyer 2009-04-20

Ever since China entered its phase of high economic growth 30 years ago it has faced apocalyptic warnings that its huge population and rising wealth would lead to food shortages.

By and large, these warnings have turned out to be wide of the mark.

China is mostly self-sufficient in the crops it considers key to its food security: rice, wheat and corn. Nevertheless, its agricultural trade balance has moved from the small surplus of the 1990s to a large deficit as it has become the world's largest buyer of soyabeans, only partially offset by exports of vegetables, fruit and seafood.

Yet while the worst fears have been avoided and the country weathered last year's food crisis better than others, Beijing still has to feed its population with limited fertile land, scarce water and the threat of climate change.

Given China's size, if these problems are not addressed they will have huge effects on global agricultural markets as Beijing will have to import large amounts of food products, tightening markets and sending prices higher.

At a time of heightened concerns about food security – illustrated by this weekend's first Group of Eight ministerial meeting on agriculture – Beijing's challenge is a concern at home and beyond. The G8 has warned that, without a doubling of spending by 2050, the global food crisis “will become structural”.

So far China's response to the global and domestic challenge has won praise. “Beijing recognises the strategic need of investing in agriculture,” says David Nabarro, head of the United Nations' taskforce on the global food security crisis, echoing a view widely held by other experts interviewed by the Financial Times.

Shenggen Fan, an expert at the Washington-based International Institute for Food Policy Research and professor at Nanjing Agricultural University, adds that China's policy reaction was spurred by the food crisis, which emerged in 2007.

“The global food crisis gave China a lesson,” he says, adding that Chinese policymakers realised they had to pay even “more attention to food security”.

China said this year it would remain almost self-sufficient in wheat, rice and corn until at least 2020, when it hopes to produce 540m tonnes of grain a year, up from last year's 470m tonnes.

To achieve its goal, Beijing increased its agriculture budget by 27 per cent in 2007, another 38 per cent last year and a further 20 per cent this year, boosting spending on agricultural research, infrastructure and farmers' subsidies. No other big country, barring India, has increased spending on farming so much.

Even so, the planned output increase presents a big challenge, experts say.

In the short-term, water scarcity, loss of fertile land and slowing agricultural productivity growth will be the key problems. The US department of agriculture estimates that China feeds 20 per cent of the world's population with just 10 per cent of the world's agricultural land and about 6 per cent of the world's water resources. In the long-term, the impact of climate change will be critical.

China is already suffering from acute water shortages in its breadbasket north. Beijing and Tianjin, the biggest northern cities, have access to less water per capita than Israel or Jordan. Ma Jun, an environmental activist, says water shortages and temperature increases in north China have already damaged wheat and corn production.

“For rice, it is even worse. Rice can hardly be planted in the area because of water shortages,” he says.

In recent decades Chinese farmers have made extensive use of groundwater and millions of wells have been drilled. But overuse has led to the water table falling sharply and, at the same time, pollution from factories that seeps into rivers has become a pressing problem.

Fertile land is also scarce as expanding industries and cities have engulfed the countryside, forcing the government to impose restrictions on development on farmland.

Despite all these challenges, Mr Fan believes China's recent high investment in agricultural research and infrastructure will help to boost productivity. He mentions previous successes such as the development of “super rice” – which increased production per hectare drastically using the same amount of water than conventional rice.

But past successes do not guarantee that China will be able to overcome present challenges, say other experts. In the current climate of food security concerns shared by all the G8 countries, many outside China remain wary.