You might think that the plunge in global trade since November would have handily settled the long-running debate among economists over how much China depends on exports for its growth. After all, the country's headline economic growth rate has been cut almost in half, from 13% in 2007 to 6.8% in the last quarter of 2008.
But since the collapse in exports also coincided with a sharp slump in the domestic property market -- a crucial driver of investment -- there is still debate over just how much of China's current slowdown is externally driven, and how much is homegrown.
In a new paper, 'How Much Do Exports Matter For China's Growth?', three researchers at the Hong Kong Monetary Authority revisit this question. It's a live issue, as new data show that while exports continued to contract for a fifth straight month in March, the housing market has started to show signs of life.
The paper builds on previous work by one of the authors, Li Cui, who in a 2007 working paper for the International Monetary Fund presented evidence that China was becoming more dependent on external demand over time. Indeed, net exports contributed about 20% of China's economic growth from 2005 to 2007, compared to less than 10% in the previous five years.
But the authors try to go beyond that number to capture the total effect of the export manufacturing sector on the economy, including investment in new factories by exporters, and spending by people employed in those factories. That leads them to conclude that the spill-over effects from the export sector are in fact quite large.
The authors estimate that a decline of 10 percentage points in export growth would be associated with a decline of about 2.5 percentage points in GDP growth. 'This is about at least twice as large as what could have been expected if only the direct impact of exports is considered,' they write.
Part of the explanation, they say, is that exports are extremely important to a group of Chinese coastal provinces, which themselves account for the majority of the national economy. So changes in export demand can cause dramatic fluctuations in those regional economies, even while the inland provinces are less affected.
But of course, China's exports have recently slowed by a lot more than 10 percentage points. In volume terms, export growth rates have swung from around positive 20% in 2007 to nearly negative 20% in the first part of this year.
The biggest effect of a decline in exports, the authors find, is on corporate investment, as companies scale back expansion plans. And since the sharp drop in exports is just a few months old, the full magnitude of the subsequent drop in capital spending may not yet be evident.
Andrew Batson
But since the collapse in exports also coincided with a sharp slump in the domestic property market -- a crucial driver of investment -- there is still debate over just how much of China's current slowdown is externally driven, and how much is homegrown.
In a new paper, 'How Much Do Exports Matter For China's Growth?', three researchers at the Hong Kong Monetary Authority revisit this question. It's a live issue, as new data show that while exports continued to contract for a fifth straight month in March, the housing market has started to show signs of life.
The paper builds on previous work by one of the authors, Li Cui, who in a 2007 working paper for the International Monetary Fund presented evidence that China was becoming more dependent on external demand over time. Indeed, net exports contributed about 20% of China's economic growth from 2005 to 2007, compared to less than 10% in the previous five years.
But the authors try to go beyond that number to capture the total effect of the export manufacturing sector on the economy, including investment in new factories by exporters, and spending by people employed in those factories. That leads them to conclude that the spill-over effects from the export sector are in fact quite large.
The authors estimate that a decline of 10 percentage points in export growth would be associated with a decline of about 2.5 percentage points in GDP growth. 'This is about at least twice as large as what could have been expected if only the direct impact of exports is considered,' they write.
Part of the explanation, they say, is that exports are extremely important to a group of Chinese coastal provinces, which themselves account for the majority of the national economy. So changes in export demand can cause dramatic fluctuations in those regional economies, even while the inland provinces are less affected.
But of course, China's exports have recently slowed by a lot more than 10 percentage points. In volume terms, export growth rates have swung from around positive 20% in 2007 to nearly negative 20% in the first part of this year.
The biggest effect of a decline in exports, the authors find, is on corporate investment, as companies scale back expansion plans. And since the sharp drop in exports is just a few months old, the full magnitude of the subsequent drop in capital spending may not yet be evident.
Andrew Batson
再論中國經濟的出口依存度
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或許認為﹐隨著去年11月以來全球貿易大幅萎縮﹐經濟學家圍繞中國經濟對出口依存度的長期爭論也已隨之有了定論。畢竟﹐中國引人注目的經濟增幅從2007年的13%降至2008年四季度的6.8%﹐降幅近一半。但由於出口下降的同時﹐國內房地產市場（這是推動投資的關鍵因素）也大幅下挫﹐因此﹐人們仍在爭論中國目前的經濟下滑究竟在多大程度上是受外部因素推動、多大程度上是內部力量所為。
香港金管局(Hong Kong Monetary Authority)三位研究員在題為《如何考量出口對內地經濟增長的影響》的新論文中試圖重新探討這個話題。這個話題仍然存在爭議﹐因新的數據表明﹐雖然中國出口在3月份連續第五個月收縮﹐但房市已開始顯示回暖跡象。
這 篇論文是以作者之一崔歷以前的研究成果為基礎展開的。崔歷在2007年的一篇國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)工作論文中提出證據顯示﹐中國經過一段時間的發展 已變得更依賴於外部需求。的確﹐從2005年到2007年﹐淨出口為中國經濟增長貢獻了20%的份額﹐而在那之前5年的數字還不到10%。
但是﹐幾位作者試圖在這些數字的基礎上更進一步﹐捕捉出口製造業對經濟的影響之全貌﹐包括出口商在新工廠上的投資、這些工廠員工帶來的開支等。他們根據這些信息得出結論﹐認為出口業的溢出效應實際上非常之大。
三位作者估計﹐出口增長下降10個百分點將導致GDP增長減少2.5個百分點。他們寫到﹐與只考慮出口的直接影響可能帶來的GDP降幅相比﹐這個數字至少是它的兩倍。
他們認為﹐部分原因在於﹐出口對中國一批沿海省份相當重要﹐而這些省份在中國經濟中佔據了大半江山。因此﹐出口需求的變化會導致這些地區的經濟出現劇烈波動﹐雖然內陸省份受到的影響較少。
當然﹐中國出口近來的降幅遠超過10個百分點。從出口量來對比﹐出口從2007年的增長20%左右下降到今年一季度接近20%的降幅。
作者們發現﹐受出口下滑影響最大的是公司投資﹐因企業會削減擴張計划。而且﹐由於出口下降還只有幾個月的時間﹐隨之而來的資本開支下滑會產生何種程度的影響或許尚不明顯。
Andrew Batson
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