2010年2月22日 星期一

朝鮮普查數據, Pentagon paints grim picture of Taiwan air defense

鮮最新普查數據顯示﹐該國人口規模擴大、老齡人增多、健康狀況下降﹐同時其號稱百萬的軍隊可能不足70萬人。

朝鮮政府於去年12月發佈了2008年進行的普查的結果﹐稱其人口攀升至2,400萬﹐上一次普查是在1993年﹐人口為2,120萬。

Reuters
朝鮮百姓在朝鮮勞動黨建黨65週年紀念活動上高喊口號
聯合國人口基金會(United Nations Population Fund)公佈了更多細節。該基金會幫助朝鮮進行了此次普查﹐並派出了五支觀察員小組進行監督。這項數據令外界難得地從統計學角度瞭解朝鮮﹐朝鮮政府幾十年來一直拒絕公佈有關該國的絕大多數信息。

普查顯示﹐朝鮮人口在這15年期間每年平均增長0.85%﹐這段時期包括持續多年的大飢荒﹐分析師和外國援助機構稱飢荒導致100萬-200萬人死亡。

去年出台的另外一份聯合國報告發現﹐2005年以來朝鮮人口增長速度變緩﹐年增幅為0.4%。聯合國報告說﹐全球人口自2005年以來每年增長1.2%。

朝鮮普查顯示﹐較1993年﹐其人口中兒童比例減少﹐中年人口比例增加。

普查還顯示﹐朝鮮人口健康狀況下降。嬰兒死亡機率增加:2008年嬰兒死亡率攀升至千分之19.3﹐1993年為14.1﹐不過朝鮮的嬰兒死亡率仍然遠低於世界平均水平﹐聯合國人口基金會2009年的報告稱世界平均嬰兒死亡率為千分之46。

朝鮮人壽命縮短──平均壽命從1993年的72.7歲縮短至69.3歲。跟許多地方一樣﹐女性的壽命比男性長﹐差距大約為7年﹐世界平均水平為4.4年。

普查顯示﹐朝鮮有590萬戶家庭﹐平均每戶3.9人。普通家庭住宅為50-75平方米。大約85%的住宅有自來水﹐55%有抽水馬桶。

此次普查只能讓人略窺朝鮮經濟結構﹐但即便如此也頗有出人意料的地方。農業為提供最多就業機會的行業﹐從事農業的女性為190萬人﹐高於男性的150萬人。

第二大行業是為政府或軍隊工作﹐就業人口為69.9萬。普查沒有進一步細分﹐不過這項數據顯示朝鮮軍隊規模並不像外界認為的那麼大。

外界軍事分析師和媒體通常認為朝鮮有百萬大軍﹐其中絕大多數為義務兵﹐被要求服役十年。

數量居第三的就業行業為教育﹐繼而是機械製造、紡織和採煤。大約4萬人從事電腦、電子或光學產品製造。

朝鮮自上世紀60年代初期以來就沒有向外界公佈過有關其經濟或金融系統的重要信息。外界對其經濟狀況的估計(其中最突出的是韓國央行每年進行的估計)充滿種種假設﹐即便這些估計的作者也認為它們幾乎毫無意義。

弗吉尼亞的經濟學研究生、朝鮮專家梅爾文(Curtis Melvin)主持的“朝鮮經濟觀察”(North Korea Economy Watch)網站上週透露了有關朝鮮普查數據公佈的消息。

Evan Ramstad

*****

Pentagon paints grim picture of Taiwan air defense

By PETER ENAV
The Associated Press
Monday, February 22, 2010; 8:50 AM

TAIPEI, Taiwan -- The Pentagon has painted a grim picture of Taiwan's air defense capabilities, saying that many of the island's 400 combat aircraft would not be available to help withstand an attack from rival China.

The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency report obtained Monday by The Associated Press says "far fewer of these are operationally capable," an unusually strong indictment of Taiwanese defense readiness.

By pointing out the island's shortcomings, the report could provide justification for Washington to grant a Taiwanese request for relatively advanced F-16 jet fighters, a key element in its arms procurement wish list.

Late last month, the Obama administration notified Congress it was making $6.4 billion in weapons available to Taiwan, including missiles, Black Hawk helicopters, information distribution systems and two Osprey Class Mine Hunting Ships.


While the package deferred judgment on the F-16s - and on a design plan for diesel submarines also coveted by Taiwan - it still prompted a furious reaction from Beijing, which regards Taiwan as part of its territory 60 years after the sides split amid civil war.

The U.S. says the F-16 request remains under study.

China resents all U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, seeing them as interference in its internal affairs.

The DIA report, dated Jan. 21, says Taiwan's 60 U.S.-made F-5 fighters have reached the end of their operational service, and its 126 locally produced Indigenous Defense Fighter aircraft lack "the capability for sustained sorties."

Taiwan's 56 French-made Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets, the report says, "are technologically advanced, but they require frequent, expensive maintenance that adversely affects their operational readiness rate."

The report notes some of Taiwan's 146 F-16 A/Bs may receive improvements focusing on avionics and combat effectiveness, but says "the extent of the upgrades, and timing and quantity of affected aircraft is currently unknown."

Taiwan's new F-16 request is for the C/D model of the plane, which is considered a substantial improvement on the A/Bs.

Despite rapidly warming relations with Beijing, Taiwan maintains that it needs state-of-the-art weaponry from the U.S. to help it counter China's threat to attack.

Beijing has deployed an estimated 1,300 missiles aimed at Taiwanese targets, and over the past 15 years has engaged in a far-reaching military modernization program, focusing on submarines and aerial warfare capability, necessary to sustain any military action against Taiwan.

The possibility of such action is codified in a Chinese law from 2005, which threatens attack if Taiwan moves to make its de facto independence permanent, or delays unification with the mainland indefinitely.

While Washington shifted its recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979, it remains Taiwan's most important foreign partner, providing it with the vast majority of its imported military equipment.

It has also left open the possibility that American forces could come to the island's aid if China invaded across the 100-mile (160-kilometer) -wide Taiwan Strait.

Following the announcement of the most recent arms deal, China suspended exchanges with the American military and threatened sanctions against major U.S. defense contractors.

Any American decision to make new F-16s available to Taiwan is likely to set off new tensions in relations between the sides.

沒有留言: