2017年6月6日 星期二

卡塔爾斷交潮對中國「一帶一路」影響有多大?The Real Battleground Between Saudi Arabia and Qatar Is Happening in Asia


卡塔爾斷交潮對中國「一帶一路」影響有多大?

卡塔爾遭遇的斷交潮造成中東局勢緊張。而被捲入其中的多個國家都是中國「一帶一路」戰略發展沿線的貿易重點。有觀點認為,中國可能會重新考慮到目前為止執行的對中東事務「不選邊站」的外交原則。
Katar - Doha Skyline im Sandsturm (picture-alliance/Photoshot/Nikku)
(德國之聲中文網)6月5日以來,以沙特、巴林、阿聯酋為代表的一系列阿拉伯國家紛紛宣佈與卡塔爾斷絕外交關係。這些國家指責卡塔爾支持恐怖主義活動並破壞地區安全局勢。
此次沙特主導的斷交潮表面上只是中東地區的區域性熱點,但不少觀點認為,卡塔爾遭阿拉伯世界外交孤立將對中國向外推進的"一帶一路"戰略構成嚴重阻礙。
自貿區談判再次擱置?
2016年中國與海灣合作委員會(包括沙烏地阿拉伯、科威特、阿聯酋、阿曼、卡塔爾和巴林6國)雙方宣佈重啟暫停6年的中國海合會自貿區談判。上週,中國商務部副部長錢克明表示,目前雙方"正在積極準備第十輪談判"。
現在,海灣合作委員會成員國沙特、阿聯酋和巴林均宣佈同卡塔爾斷交。中國海合會自貿區談判有可能面臨再次擱置。
合作項目何去何從
據中國外交部官方網頁上公佈的訊息,1988年7月9日中國與卡塔爾建交。2014年11月,兩國建立戰略夥伴關係。2015年中卡雙邊貿易額68.9億美元,其中中國出口22.78億美元,進口46.12億美元,分別同比增長-34.9%、1.1%和-44.7%。中國從卡塔爾進口原油26.7萬噸,同比下降26%,進口液化天然氣481.1萬噸,同比下降28.5%。中國主要出口商品是機械設備、電器及電子產品、金屬製品等,進口商品是液化天然氣、原油、聚乙烯等。
據卡塔爾《海灣時報》報導,2014年,中國同卡塔爾簽訂價值80億美元的一系列基礎設施建設工程項目,其中包括民用建築、道路橋樑、港口和通訊工程等等。
去年11月底,新華社報導稱,中國鐵建國際集團有限公司(中鐵建)中標卡塔爾2022年世界盃主體育場建設工程項目,合同總值28億卡塔爾里亞爾,約合人民幣51.7億元。
新加坡《聯合早報》報導指出,卡塔爾此次突如其來的外交危機,"可能讓中卡之間立下的合作項目亮起紅燈,也證明了,即使在中東地區努力建立好了合作關係,也難免會隨著中東穆斯林國家之間的關係變化而受到一定影響"。
中卡潛在摩擦
香港英文報紙《南華早報》在一篇報導中指出,被沙特等國家指責為支持恐怖主義活動的卡塔爾和沙特一樣,都已經被多次指責向信奉極端伊斯蘭主義的薩拉斐教派提供數額高達數十億美元的資助。報導指出,這也可能是造成中國與卡塔爾之間出現摩擦的潛在因素,因為"中國在新疆地區推行民族壓迫政策,並且指責伊斯蘭分子在這一地區開展暴力活動"。
洪沙 (綜合報導)
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DW.COM

  • 日期 07.06.2017


It's where the petroleum market's center of gravity is these days.
BLOOMBERG.COM

Forget the Strait of Hormuz. The real place to watch the simmering diplomatic battle between Saudi Arabia and Qatar is 5,500 kilometers to the southeast, in the Strait of Malacca between Malaysia and Indonesia.
That's because the petroleum market's center of gravity, along with that of the global economy, is in Asia these days. As recently as the 2003 Iraq War, the U.S. and Europe accounted for more than half of the world's oil imports. The share has now fallen to barely more than a third, as imports by the north Atlantic countries have stood still while those by China, India, South Korea and the Philippines have surged.


Rising Sun
Asia has the lion's share of the Middle East's petroleum exports
Source: BP Statistical Review, International Gas Union, Gadfly calculations

That makes the stance of Qatar's major Asian trading partners -- Japan, South Korea, India and Taiwan -- a crucial factor in how the embargo will play out. More than half of the Emirate's liquefied natural gas exports go to those four countries, or about two-thirds if you add China and Thailand. 


SHIPPING OUT

To see how this might play out, it's worth considering the dynamics of Asia's gas market, and the differing degrees to which the countries are dependent on Qatar and its Arab rivals.
Take Japan. It's Qatar's largest export destination and the buyer of almost a fifth of its traded gas -- but Australia and Malaysia are its more important LNG suppliers, with the Emirate accounting for just 17 percent of imports in 2015 and as little as 12 percent in recent months. Saudi Arabia, by contrast, supplies close to 40 percent of Japan's crude.


Yawning Gulf
Japan needs Saudi Arabia for oil much more than it needs Qatar for gas
Source: METI, LNG Japan Corp., Bloomberg, Gadfly calculations

The disparity is heightened by the fact that Japan is short of oil, and awash in natural gas. Its regasification plants are running at about 44 percent of capacity compared to 88 percent at its oil refineries. Should Jera Co. choose this moment to press its long-standing case for renegotiation of gas contract terms with Qatar Petroleum, it could find itself with a great deal of short-term leverage.
It wouldn't be the first time that the politics of the Middle East have spilled over into Japan's domestic energy sector. A planned government-brokered merger between refiners Showa Shell Sekiyu KK and Idemitsu Kosan Co. foundered last year after Idemitsu's founding family opposed the deal citing Showa Shell's Saudi links.



That said, Qatar has some significant cards up its sleeve. While the value and volume of Asia's oil imports may dwarf its gas trade, LNG consumers would be wise to be circumspect about taking advantage of the blockade.
Even in a country like Japan, where oil-based power generation accounts for an outsized share of the electricity market, losing crude supply mostly pushes up costs for factories and drivers. Losing LNG supply, by contrast, risks blackouts. Against that backdrop, Asia's utilities are unlikely to want to upset relations with a key supplier by preying on its misfortunes -- especially after Qatar's dominance of the global market was reasserted in April by the country's decision to lift a moratorium on the development of its North Field.


LITTLE IN JAPAN

There's another point to consider. Japan is unusual in Asia for the diversity of its LNG supply. Taiwan and India each depend on Qatar for about half of their gas imports, while South Korea isn't far behind on 36 percent. India and China, meanwhile, are major buyers of Iranian oil, which makes it unlikely they'll be willing to pick sides in what is ultimately a proxy for the deeper dispute between Riyadh and Tehran.
The forces on both sides are finely balanced. Any player who wants to upset the board by using the present crisis to press home an advantage should think carefully before making their move.

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