Taiwan, China Relations Set To Progress
Ma Ying-jeou's victory in Taiwan's presidential elections gave him a renewed mandate to press ahead with an economic opening to China, but analysts said the vote underlined deep suspicions among voters toward their giant neighbor, which will complicate Ma's efforts to establish a lasting rapprochement with the island's longtime foe during his second term.Ma, the leader of the China-friendly Kuomintang, took a 51.6% share of the vote compared to 45.6% for his main challenger, Tsai Ing-wen of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party. Ms. Tsai, after conceding the election, told reporters that she would step down as chairwoman of the DPP and take responsibility for the loss.
Ma's support levels were significantly lower than in 2008, when he received 58.45% of the vote. That sets up a difficult second term in which analysts say Ma will be constrained in how much he can offer China as he seeks to expand economic ties. He will also face a tough global economic climate that may make it difficult for him to address a rising wealth gap and stagnant wages, issues that dented his support in this election.
At just above 74%, voter turnout was the lowest in the history of Taiwan's five democratic presidential elections. Roughly 200,000 Taiwanese businessmen are estimated to have flown back to the island from China, representing about 1.5% of the more than 13 million people who voted in the election.
(This story and related background material will be available on The Wall Street Journal Web site, WSJ.com).
Business leaders generally welcomed the election result. The chairman of Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. (2317.TW), Terry Gou, on Sunday said Ma's re-election was 'encouraging' for business, and vowed to increase investments in China and Taiwan with uncertainties over the election removed.
The pro-DPP Liberty Times said that 'Ma's toughest battle will be how to stand up against China in future cross-strait talks as now it is 'pay back time' after Beijing successfully helped Ma to solidify his support base in two elections.'
It added that Ma would now be faced with the task of devising a long-term economic plan to quell domestic economic worries, which analysts say could run into increased opposition from a legislature, that while still in the control of the KMT, is more diverse and divided than during his first term.
Tense relations between Taipei and Beijing have eased since Ma became president in 2008. In June 2010, the two sides signed a landmark trade agreement to gradually lift tariffs on goods and restrictions on investment. Ma has also presided over agreements that have allowed Chinese tourists to visit Taiwan and opened up direct cross-Strait flights.
Reactions from Beijing and Washington to Ma's victory signaled their relief. Ma's policies have helped defuse a key regional flash point between the countries and have justified Chinese President Hu Jintao's decision to take a more conciliatory approach to Taiwan relations.
In a lengthy note, the White House said 'cross-strait peace, stability, and improved relations in an environment free from intimidation are of profound importance to the United States. We hope the impressive efforts that both sides have undertaken in recent years to build cross-strait ties continue.'
The Taiwan Affairs Office of China's State Council said: 'We are willing to join hands with Taiwan's all walks of life on the basis of continuing to oppose the 'Taiwan independence' and sticking to the '1992 Consensus,' to break new ground for the peaceful development of the cross-strait relations and make common efforts for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.'
But analysts argue that future moves to bring Taiwan and China closer will be increasingly difficult.
'Ma got an affirmation of his policies having run on his record, but I think that a significant element of the population is still skeptical of Kuomintang policies and skeptical about China,' said Richard Bush, director of the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution.
Bush said many of the obvious next steps toward economic integration touch on sensitive domestic vested interests within both China and Taiwan. On the Chinese side, state-owned enterprises are likely to oppose tariff reductions on Taiwan imports and China's financial firms don't want to compete with Taiwan's banks, he said.
Meanwhile, negotiations on a key investment-protection deal for Taiwan enterprises in China has run into difficulties. Taiwan has been unable to get what it views as necessary protection for Taiwan individuals who end up in disagreements with the Chinese government. Steps to formally bring the two sides closer politically are even more sensitive.
'Now we are entering the difficult stage in which many of the economic issues will touch upon the issue of Taiwan's sovereignty,' said Yen Chen-shen, a research fellow at National Chengchi University.
With little known about Xi Jinping, widely expected to take over as China's top leader this year, it remains to be seen how far China will push Ma on sensitive sovereignty issues and political talks.
Shelley Rigger, a professor of political science at Davidson College, said she believed that Beijing would likely be happy to have the Taiwan question on the back burner as it goes through the highly sensitive political succession period and as Xi consolidates his power.
'I'm not sure [China] has a real good consensus among the leadership about exactly where they want to go. Obviously they have their ultimate destination in mind, but they understand unification is way off. And they really need to figure out what they're asking for in concrete terms,' she said.
Joseph Wu, Taiwan's former chief representative to the U.S., said there is growing frustration in China from some leaders that China hasn't received substantive steps from Taiwan to move toward political talks despite significant concessions in trade deals.
That makes it more likely that Chinese leaders will attempt to extract political concessions, including formal talks with Ma, according to Wu.
Wang Yeh-li, chairman of the political-science department at National Taiwan University, disagreed, arguing that Ma is limited in the steps he can take, as anything that is perceived as moving too close to China would do great damage to the KMT's support base for future elections.
'Ma's sliding popularity is a strong message to Beijing that even though Ma still represents the majority sentiment of Taiwan, there are many who are very suspicious of his leadership. This means Ma will likely take a tougher stance on Taiwan's sovereignty in future talks with Beijing,' he said.
In Washington, Ma's policies have been generally viewed as positive for U.S. interests, as better economic ties have ensured a more stable cross-strait relationship and allowed U.S.-China ties to focus on other issues such as territorial disputes in the South China Sea and North Korea.
Brookings's Bush said he believed 'the U.S. has nothing to worry about,' as long as Ma stays within the limits of his mandate.
But he added, 'The People's Republic of China buildup is continuing and we have to decide what we will do about it to help Taiwan.'
Because of the recent opening up of ties between the two sides, and the increasing power of microblog sites like Sina Corp.'s (SINA) Weibo, Taiwan's election was also given unprecedented attention by Chinese across the strait.
Weibo featured an official vote counter as ballots were tallied, and commenters expressed frank opinions for and against the candidates, and also Taiwan's democratic system in general.
Wang Gongquan, a CDH Investment partner, wrote, 'In the world of freedom and democracy, politics is more beautiful, at least much better than in the world of authoritarian hypocrisy. Both Ma and Cai's manners, minds and style are admirable.'
Paul Mozur
馬英九連任 兩岸關係仍面挑戰
馬
英九在台灣總統大選中獲勝﹐這使他有權力繼續推進對大陸的經濟開放。但分析人士說﹐投票結果凸顯出台灣選民對大陸的深深質疑﹐這將加大馬英九在第二個任期內建立與大陸持久友好關係的難度。
Jason Lee/Reuters
周六晚，現任台灣總統、國民黨候選人馬英九在位於台北市的競選總部外宣布成功連任。
馬 英九的支持率大大低於2008年﹐當時他的得票率為58.45%。這就使他的連任面臨艱難的挑戰。分析人士說﹐連任期間﹐馬英九在尋求擴大經濟聯繫之際向 大陸提供的條件將受到制約。他還將面臨艱難的全球經濟環境﹐這可能使他難以應對不斷擴大的貧富差距和停滯的工資。這兩個問題對他在此次總統大舉中的支持率 造成了打擊。
此次台灣總統大選的投票率略高於74%﹐是台灣五次民主總統選舉歷史中最低的。估計約有20萬台商從大陸返回台灣﹐佔逾1,300萬投票選民的約1.5%。
商 業領袖普遍對選舉結果表示歡迎。鴻海精密工業股份有限公司(Hon Hai Precision Industry Co.)董事長郭台銘週日說﹐馬英九的連任對企業來說是令人鼓舞的消息﹐他還鄭重承諾﹐鑒於圍繞台灣大選的不確定因素已經消除﹐他將擴大在大陸和台灣的投 資。
親民進黨的《自由時報》(Liberty Times)說﹐大陸政策的挑戰更立即而明顯﹐大陸兩度助選有功﹐在他當選之後必定要求回報。
報道還說﹐馬英九目前將面臨制定一項長期經濟計劃以平息台灣島內經濟擔憂的任務。分析人士說﹐經濟計劃可能在立法院受到更加強烈的反對。儘管立法院仍處於國民黨的控制之下﹐但相比馬英九第一屆任期時﹐立法院人員構成更加多樣化﹐意見分歧更大。
自2008年馬英九成為台灣總統以來﹐台北與北京之間的緊張關係有所緩和。2010年6月﹐兩岸簽訂了一項具有里程碑意義的貿易協議﹐逐步取消貨物關稅及投資限制。在馬英九第一屆任期中﹐兩岸還簽訂了允許大陸遊客赴台灣旅遊及建立兩岸直航的協議。
北京和華盛頓對馬英九獲勝的反應表明他們鬆了一口氣。馬英九的政策有助於解除中美關係中一個關鍵的地區性引爆點﹐並為中國國家主席胡錦濤做出對台關係採取更緩和做法的決定提供了理由。
白宮在一份長篇報告中說﹐兩岸在一個沒有威脅的環境下建立和平、穩定和改善的關係對美國具有非常重要的意義。我們希望近幾年雙方在建立兩岸關係方面做出的巨大努力仍將繼續。
中國國務院台灣事務辦公室說：“我們願意繼續在反對‘台獨’、堅持‘九二共識’的共同基礎上﹐與台灣各界攜手努力﹐承前啟後﹐繼往開來﹐進一步開創兩岸關係和平發展的新局面﹐共同致力於中華民族的偉大復興。”
Patrick Lin/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
週日﹐成功獲得連任的台灣總統馬英九在其台北總部向助選工作人員表示感謝。
布魯金斯學會(Brookings Institution)東北亞政策研究中心主任卜睿哲(Richard Bush)說﹐馬英九任期內的政策獲得了肯定﹐但我認為﹐有很多台灣民眾仍對國民黨的政策表示質疑﹐對大陸表示質疑。
卜睿哲說﹐為實現經濟一體化﹐接下來要採取的很多顯而易見的措施均涉及到中國大陸和台灣各自的既得利益﹐這是一個敏感的問題。他說﹐對大陸方面而言﹐國有企業可能會反對減少台灣進口商品的關稅﹐而且大陸的金融機構也不想和台灣銀行同台競爭。
此外﹐對大陸台商來說一個關鍵性投資保護協議的談判遇到了麻煩。台灣一直無法獲得它認為對那些與中國政府意見相左的台灣人士的必要保護﹐而讓兩岸政治關係更加密切的正式舉措就更加敏感。
台灣國立政治大學(National Chengchi University)研究員嚴震生說﹐現在我們即將進入一個困難的階段﹐在這個階段﹐很多經濟問題都會與台灣的主權扯上關係。
由於外界對習近平瞭解甚少﹐所以大陸方面會在多大程度上就敏感的主權問題和政治談判給馬英九施壓還有待觀察。外界普遍認為習近平將於今年成為中國最高領導人。
美國戴維森學院(Davidson College)政治學教授任雪麗(Shelley Rigger)說﹐她認為北京此時正處於高度敏感的政治領導人接班過程中﹐習近平也在鞏固自己的權力﹐這個時候北京可能會樂於把台灣問題暫時擱置一旁。
任雪麗說﹐我不確定中國大陸領導人是否真正就自己到底想朝哪裡走達成共識﹐雖然毫無疑問他們心裡有一個終極目的地﹐但他們也知道現在距離兩岸統一還早得很﹐他們必須真正搞清楚自己近期的具體目標。
台灣前駐美代表吳釗燮說﹐儘管中國大陸在貿易協議方面做出了很大讓步﹐但始終未見台灣出台實質性舉措以推動政治談判﹐一些大陸領導人對此越來越感到失望。
吳釗燮表示﹐這可能會讓中國領導人試圖進一步“榨取”台灣在政治方面的讓步﹐包括與馬英九舉行正式談判等。
國立台灣大學(National Taiwan University)政治學系主任王業立不同意這個看法﹐他堅持認為馬英九所能採取的措施相當有限﹐因為任何被看作是太靠近大陸的舉動都會對支持國民黨未來競選的選民基礎造成很大破壞。
王業立說﹐馬英九支持率下滑對北京來說是個強烈的信號﹐也就是說雖然馬英九仍代表著台灣大部分選民的心聲﹐但也有很多人對他的領導力抱強烈質疑的態度﹐這意味著馬英九以後與北京就台灣主權進行談判時可能會採取更強硬的立場。
在華盛頓﹐馬英九的政策通常被視為有利於美國利益﹐因為更好的經濟關係不僅確保兩岸關係更加穩定﹐也使得美中兩國可以把關注焦點放在其他問題上﹐比如南中國海（中國稱南海）領土糾紛和朝鮮問題等。
布魯金斯學會的卜睿哲說﹐只要馬英九不越過職責範圍﹐美國就沒有什麼可擔心的。
但他也說﹐中國大陸的實力仍在不斷增強﹐美國必須決定要採取怎樣的應對措施來幫助台灣。
由於兩岸關係近來不斷開放﹐再加上新浪微博等網站的影響力越來越大﹐台灣大選也受到了大陸民眾前所未有的關注。
台灣選舉進入計票階段時﹐新浪微博推出了正式的計票頁面﹐微博用戶坦率表達了支持或反對台灣總統候選人的言論﹐並對台灣的民主制度暢所欲言。
鼎暉創業投資(CDH Investment)合伙人王功權在微博中寫道：“在自由民主的世界里﹐政治是比較美好的﹐起碼要比專制世界里的虛偽政治美好得很多很多。台灣馬、蔡兩位政治家的境界、胸懷和風度﹐令人敬佩。”
Paul Mozur
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