Christian Science Monitor
Taiwan, one of the four Asian Tiger nations known for its economic growth, is about to elect a new president. Voters are most concerned with economic improvement. By Ralph Jennings, Correspondent / January 11, 2012 Supporters wave flags to welcome ...
| Taiwanese voters weigh ties to China at the polls USA TODAY By Calum MacLeod, USA TODAY BEIJING – The presidential election in Taiwan this weekend pits blue-flagged Chinese Nationalist Party against the green-flagged Democratic Progressive Party. But it is the red of the People's Republic of China across the ... See all stories on this topic » | USA TODAY |
New York Times
TAIPEI, Taiwan — In Saturday's election, as voters here choose a president and a new legislature, their decisions will also determine whether Taiwan pulls the plug on a state-backed nuclear power industry that provides the country with a fifth of its ...
China a Sticky Point in Taiwan Vote
Trade Deal With Beijing Has Been Slow to Yield Benefits, Opening Door for Opposition Candidate
By PAUL MOZUR and JENNY W. HSU
Campaigning goes into high gear for Taiwan's presidential election, with China relations weighing heavily on this week's vote. The WSJ's Deborah Kan speaks to Paul Mozur.
TAIPEI—Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou's policy of economic opening to China has frustrated a key constituency: struggling middle- and low-income workers, who could cost him elections this week. That outcome would alarm Beijing and heighten uncertainty in an area that has long been a flashpoint in U.S.-China relations.
Following massive rallies Sunday by both the ruling Kuomintang and the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party in the capital, Taipei, Mr. Ma and DPP candidate Tsai Ing-wen were back campaigning Monday.
In the presidential office, Mr. Ma met Lions Club leaders from the city of Kaohsiung. He touted his recent progress in trade deals with China and other countries, calling the agreements "the winning strategy and our way to survive in the future."
![[TAIWAN2]](http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/WO-AI401_TAIWAN_D_20120109192805.jpg)
Reuters President Ma Ying-jeou shakes hands in Xinbei, northern Taiwan.
Meanwhile in Chiayi, considered a battleground in this election, Ms. Tsai cruised the streets in a bulletproof truck, waving to supporters.
China Real Time
Mr. Ma and Ms. Tsai have been running neck-and-neck, according to analysts, though they say a third candidate, James Soong, could tip the result toward Ms. Tsai by taking votes from Mr. Ma.
When he signed a landmark trade and investment deal with China in June 2010, Mr. Ma promised that it would create jobs and spur growth by attracting Chinese investment and tourists, and by opening new opportunities in China for the island's companies. But the China deal has been slow to produce concrete results: Unemployment remains high by Taiwan standards, wages have stagnated and the economy is set to slow. Chinese investment in Taiwan has been negligible.
![[TAIWAN1]](http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/WO-AI400_TAIWAN_D_20120109211059.jpg)
Agence France-Presse/Getty Images Taiwan's opposition presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen, in purple, campaigns from a bullet-proof vehicle in Chiayi on Monday.
Political analysts say Mr. Ma's prospects also have been damaged by a widening of the wealth gap. A perception is building among low-wage workers that trade with China has disproportionately benefited the rich. Their anger is fueled by soaring property prices in Taipei and other major cities.
Ms. Tsai has cashed in on the disappointment. She has promised more jobs for low-income workers, low-cost housing, and improved education. Her campaign has struck a chord, giving it a chance to pull off an upset in only the fifth democratic election in the island's history. That would be a remarkable turnaround for a party that during the previous election was mired in a corruption scandal involving former President Chen Shui-bian. Mr. Chen is currently serving a 17½-year jail sentence.
The bullet-proof trucks sporadically used by the candidates are a reminder that Taiwan's generally peaceful society has experienced two major attacks just ahead of elections in the past eight years. In 2004, then-President Chen and his vice president, Annette Lu, were both shot in a jeep while campaigning in the southern city of Tainan. Neither was seriously injured, but the incident prompted accusations from his opponents that he had faked the shooting to win re-election, which he did by a razor-thin margin. Forensic studies found that a shooting did in fact take place from outside the jeep, debunking conspiracy theories. The suspected shooter was later found drowned.
And on the eve of 2010 mayoral elections, Sean Lien, the son of former Kuomintang Vice President Lien Chan, was shot in the head while stumping for a KMT city council candidate. The bullet tore through his cheek and exited below his temple. According to reporting by local media, the alleged shooter claims he was aiming to shoot the city-council candidate but mistook Mr. Lien for him. The Lien family insists the shooting was politically motivated and premeditated.
Four years ago, Wu Kuo-ming, 35 years old, voted for Mr. Ma after growing tired of Taiwan's wilting competitiveness under Mr. Chen. But he has changed his mind as housing prices in Taipei precludes him from living in an area with good schools for his daughter. "The only way I can afford a decent home in Taipei is if I rob a few banks or if I hit the lottery jackpot," he said.
Besides, Mr. Wu said, "Beijing has not become any friendlier...It has a high-and-mighty attitude that Taiwan owes everything to China and without their mercy, Taiwan will flop overnight." He adds: "Tsai has my vote because Beijing needs to know that Taiwanese people can't be bought."
While many in Taiwan believe China is key to the island's economic future, Taiwanese are distrustful of their neighbor and few support any political integration with China, which considers Taiwan a renegade province.
Both Beijing and Washington have welcomed steps by Mr. Ma to warm cross-strait ties. The U.S. sees the rapprochement as defusing a regional problem that holds the potential to bring the U.S. and China into military conflict. Although the U.S. has officially taken no sides in the election, its recent decision to make Taiwan a candidate for visa-free travel and a visit by Deputy Secretary of Energy Dan Poneman are widely read in Taiwan as tacit support for Mr. Ma.
Mr. Ma faces suspicions among some voters that he will take steps to formally align Taiwan with China and reduce its prized de facto independence. Ms. Tsai has struck a moderate tone on China, but nevertheless has been hampered by concern that intense Chinese distrust of the DPP may make it difficult for her to nurture economic ties with China that are so important for Taiwan's economic security.
Chen Chao-chien, a professor of public relations at Ming Chuan University in Taiwan, said Beijing's response to a victory by Ms. Tsai would depend on the margin. "Beijing will be dismayed and could slow down cross-strait talks for a few months. But it could also offer more economic sweeteners to test the DPP's bottom line," he said.
Mr. Ma argues that Taiwan's current economic situation would be far worse without the trade deals with China.
最後假日催票拚場 雙英日夜沸騰台北城
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| 總統大選選前超級星期天，藍綠陣營全台動員大拚場，民進黨昨晚在北市封街舉行造勢晚會，為蔡英文強力催票。（記者鹿俊為攝） |
| 總統大選選前超級星期天，藍綠陣營全台動員大拚場，國民黨昨天由馬英九領軍在北市舉辦大遊行。（記者方賓照攝） |
〔本 報記者／綜合報導〕昨天是選前超級星期天，綠藍陣營把握最後假日全台動員大拚場。民進黨總統候選人蔡英文從南攻到北，車隊掃街加四場晚會強力催票；國民黨 則在北、中、花、東四地舉辦「為台灣讚出來」大遊行，緊接著總統候選人馬英九連趕桃園、台南兩場造勢晚會。雙方各自固守大本營，再直搗對手票倉。
蔡從南出發 連趕四場晚會
蔡英文昨天的造勢活動，上午從台南掃街拉開序幕，再一路往北，在彰化、台中、新北、台北共舉辦四場大會；副手蘇嘉全則是先從花蓮車隊掃街，再回到雙北會師。
四場大型造勢活動，員林、豐原都有數萬人支持，新莊場擠進約五萬人，在台北市忠孝東路到市民大道間的林森北路封街舉辦的晚會，更吸引爆滿的十五萬人潮，民進黨執政縣市首長全都到場為蔡英文站台。
蔡 英文昨天每場造勢都不厭其煩闡釋「大聯合政府」概念。她表示，十幾年來很多人覺得台灣很紛擾，因為政治對抗、政黨不能合作，她宣示從二○一二年開始，台灣 要走入政黨和諧的民主，民進黨如果執政，將籌組大聯合政府，找全台灣最優秀人才組成執政團隊，將來閣揆不一定是要民進黨籍。
蔡英文強調，勝選之後最重要的責任就是穩定政局、穩定台灣的經濟、穩定兩岸的關係。
小英台南晚會 10萬人沸騰
稍 後在台南市壓軸晚會，規模更是驚人，支持群眾把卅米的海安路，從成功路到民族路段擠得水洩不通，場面壯觀。蔡英文大進場時，短短一百八十公尺，走了十五分 鐘才擠上舞台，台南市長賴清德大喊：「蔡英文，咱的第一女總統已經來到成功路口，要進總統府就差這麼一步。」現場群眾情緒沸騰，不少民眾興奮地說，「已經 很久沒看過這麼激情的場子了！」
兩場晚會中，蔡全國競選總部主委蘇貞昌、總指揮謝長廷等人均趕場站台，呼籲選民用選票制裁不公，讓台灣第一女總統帶領大家拚未來。
蔡英文也重砲抨擊馬英九，質疑執政者一直和財團站在一起，和中國一起要脅台灣人接受九二共識，這是對台灣民主最大的羞辱。
她痛批馬政府最大的問題就在於不公平，資源分配完全以政治考量。她說，不公平的社會就會不安定，政治沒有包容就會產生對立。
蔡英文說，馬政府執政四年，人民工作難找、收入不穩定，國民所得、民主、言論自由都倒退，此次選舉砸大錢做廣告，用文宣、數字美化自己，且動用政府資源、國家機器抹黑對手，情治單位監控她，「再讓馬做四年，台灣將重回威權、白色恐怖時代！」
她強調執政後，將組大聯合政府，網羅優秀人才為人民服務，保障人民自由，讓民主更堅強，並尊重國會、建立台灣共識。
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| 馬英九昨晚出席在新北市板橋舉辦的「青年向前行，新北讚出來」晚會時，受到民眾熱情歡迎。 （記者羅沛德攝） |
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| 蔡英文昨晚在台南的造勢晚會，現場估計湧入10萬群眾，場面壯觀。 （記者朱沛雄攝） |
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| 宋楚瑜昨晚在台南舉行首場大型造勢晚會，隔著國安人員的人牆，熱情民眾仍爭相和宋楚瑜握手。 （記者王俊忠攝） |
〔本報記者／綜合報導〕總統選前黃金週末，三黨候選人蔡馬宋昨天進行晚會大拚場。蔡英文連趕高雄、台南兩場，兩地群眾擠爆會場，綠營估台南現場超過十萬人與會；馬英九從彰化直衝新北，同樣都有萬頭攢動的場面；宋楚瑜則選在台南舉行首場大型造勢晚會，支持者不吝展現熱情。
雙英今晚 到對方票倉搶票
今 天是選前超級星期天，雙英今晚都鎖定對方票倉大搶票。蔡英文上午繼續從台南沿縱貫線往北掃街行程，下午抵達彰化、台中造勢，晚上直闖藍營票倉，在北二都辦 兩場大型造勢晚會。馬英九則是上午在台中掃街，下午趕回台北凱道參加「為台灣讚出來」大遊行，晚上又深入綠營票倉，在台南辦晚會。
蔡英文昨天在屏東東港舉行環台車隊大掃街誓師儀式後，一路向北掃，傍晚在高雄路竹舉行晚會，現場萬人空巷，群眾搖旗吶喊。
小英台南晚會 10萬人沸騰
稍 後在台南市壓軸晚會，規模更是驚人，支持群眾把卅米的海安路，從成功路到民族路段擠得水洩不通，場面壯觀。蔡英文大進場時，短短一百八十公尺，走了十五分 鐘才擠上舞台，台南市長賴清德大喊：「蔡英文，咱的第一女總統已經來到成功路口，要進總統府就差這麼一步。」現場群眾情緒沸騰，不少民眾興奮地說，「已經 很久沒看過這麼激情的場子了！」
兩場晚會中，蔡全國競選總部主委蘇貞昌、總指揮謝長廷等人均趕場站台，呼籲選民用選票制裁不公，讓台灣第一女總統帶領大家拚未來。
蔡英文也重砲抨擊馬英九，質疑執政者一直和財團站在一起，和中國一起要脅台灣人接受九二共識，這是對台灣民主最大的羞辱。
她痛批馬政府最大的問題就在於不公平，資源分配完全以政治考量。她說，不公平的社會就會不安定，政治沒有包容就會產生對立。
蔡英文說，馬政府執政四年，人民工作難找、收入不穩定，國民所得、民主、言論自由都倒退，此次選舉砸大錢做廣告，用文宣、數字美化自己，且動用政府資源、國家機器抹黑對手，情治單位監控她，「再讓馬做四年，台灣將重回威權、白色恐怖時代！」
她強調執政後，將組大聯合政府，網羅優秀人才為人民服務，保障人民自由，讓民主更堅強，並尊重國會、建立台灣共識。
馬新北打政績牌 萬頭攢動
馬英九昨天白天在雲、彰兩縣拜票，晚上則在彰化縣、新北市的晚會中持續打政績牌。他在彰化強調，自己成長於「陰盛陽衰」的家庭，所以對婦女兒童特別關心，接著列舉育嬰假、幼兒托育保母補助、五歲幼兒入學免學費、年輕夫妻安心成家方案等相關施政成果。
馬在新北市晚會中也舉出數據，強調任內每年補助新北市的經費比前朝多出兩百多億元，盼民眾再給他四年執政機會，繼續服務新北市及台灣人民。
國民黨榮譽主席連戰、新北市長朱立倫、前台北縣長周錫瑋、台北市長郝龍斌等人輪番上台助講，肯定馬英九的政績，呼籲選民再次力挺。彰化的晚會則有國民黨榮譽主席吳伯雄前往站台助講。
宋也到台南 熱情民眾送暖
宋楚瑜在台南市花園夜市附近廣場的晚會，熱情民眾爭睹風采、搶握手，並頻頻遞上「紅包」，讓他在寒冬中感受到南台灣的溫暖。宋在會中火力全開，痛批馬英九執政無能、藍綠兩黨惡鬥，他呼籲選民選一個有經驗、讓大家滿意放心的候選人。
***
新闻报道 | 2012.01.11
台湾选举观察：这里的选举很安静
台湾即将在本周六举行总统大选投票。国民党候选人马英九和民进党候选人蔡英文势均力敌，报端和电视里关于竞选的报道，在外界的视线里象一场没有硝烟的战 争。但与外界对本次选举的密集关注和各种解读不同，目前正在台湾观选的香港新世纪出版社负责人鲍朴和中国新媒体人北风在与德国之声连线中表示，那里的选举 很安静。
"安静的选举说明民主已经进入民心"
刚刚从台南返回台北的鲍朴告诉德国之声，台南民众面对选举非常平静，没有外界想象中的群情激烈，他们认为选举自己的总统是再正常不过的事情，选举也成为和其他生活方式一样的内容："这说明民主已经走入人民生活当中去了、走入正常轨道。"
北风在走访过国民党、民进党的多个地方竞选办公室和竞选总部之后，对本次选举的初步印象是选举气氛并没有往届那么热烈： "刚开始实现民主转型的时候，选举和参与的人数会更多，气氛会更热烈，意识形态和族群的操作会更多更彻底，但当台湾两党慢慢进入一个良性的渐近的竞争的时 候，会看到他们在选举中着重的是拿出对未来的政策、未来开给民众的支票是什么，这种竞争是温和和理性的竞争，这也和我们这次看到平静的气氛有关，我们没有 看到太多的族群动员、悲情动员，更看不到很强的意识形态方面的动员。这是一种进步的表现。"
"选举前会有突发事件发生吗？"
据台湾以往选举历史，每到选前最后关键时刻，台湾候选人总会担心对手突出绝招，造成选情突变，例如2004年"总统"选举陈水扁遭两颗子弹袭击；2010年"五都"选举"连胜文被枪击事件"。 台湾坊间也一直有关蓝绿阵营将在选举最后使出终极绝招的传闻。
鲍朴坦言通过走访两方的竞选团队和立委等，两方也在谨慎猜测对方如何打出下一张牌，到最后是不是会有杀手锏。很多人甚至在等待突发事件的发生。
"不管政党是否交替，这次如果能够摆脱突发事件的阴影，就会看到民主程序、宪政秩序切实的进步。对台湾的未来都会很有意义。"
而北风则认为此次选举不太可能发生突发事件，即使万一发生对渐趋明朗的选举也不会产生根本性的改变："即使突发事件发生，也不会对台湾未来的进程也不会有 长久的影响，例如2004年的两颗子弹，民进党由这两颗子弹带来的受益并不大，而国民党由这两颗子弹加速了转型，民进党反而拖入贪腐深渊。我想不再有人再 操作这种突发性危机的原因就在于此，任何一方都不能十足把握这种突发的危机，会不会有利自己，所以不会作为竞选的策略来考虑。"
"李登辉站台为蔡英文加分多少？"
据台湾媒体报道，外界普遍李登辉是否出席晚会，为民进党候选人蔡英文站台。李登辉办公室幕僚10日透露，李登辉因身体虚弱，天气寒冷，身体仍处于易被感染的高峰期，医生不建议出门，因此李登辉10日上午亲笔撰写文章，11日在七家报纸刊登了广告，力挺蔡英文。
对此北风认为："我们也知道深绿民众本来就是蔡英文的支持者，所以他抱病站出来支持对蔡英文的支持率究竟会有多大的增量，在我看来，也未可知，但这篇文章所阐述的民主很值得台湾甚至大陆借鉴。"
"台湾民主使大陆不能实施民主的论述成为谎言"
就处在网络时代的台湾选举，大陆方面没有可能封锁信息，但大陆当局一边选择性的在媒体上刊发消息，一边有学者试图向民众作出台湾"民主很乱"的解读。
对此，鲍朴认为大陆在民主方面尚不能和台湾相提并论："台湾和大陆是有选举和没有选举的区别，就是1和0的区别，即使台湾在以前宪政秩序并不太好。"
北风认为台湾民主已经进入良性和深入的进程中："从台湾民主进程来看，所谓的基层民众的素质，传统文化的根源都不能成为民主的制约，这会对大陆有借鉴作用，我们认为中国大陆不能实施民主的很多论述都是谎言，都会在台湾的民主进程中得到教训，或受到无情的批驳。"
"大陆当局的倾向性不会影响选举结果"
北风也向德国之声介绍，从目前观察的情况来看，也和中国大陆媒体的宣传有差异的是，蔡英文在民众中的呼声更高些，助选团队更年轻和有活力。从大陆方面目前 限制对台湾大选有评论来看，中共当局更为忧虑蔡英文的支持率，另外，北风也观察到台湾的商人发表了大幅广告，例如"支持九二共识""挺马"等。北风认为这 可能有大陆当局背后的操作，也是大陆当局惧怕绿营的蔡英文当选的一种危机表现："但这样的作法可能会和1996年的台湾飞弹危机及当时朱镕基放出狠话有类 似的效果，会起到相向的作用，反而会帮了蔡英文。"
鲍朴也认为大陆当局对此次选举的倾向性是非常明显的，但这不会影响选举结果。
作者:吴雨
责编:李鱼
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