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新加坡14日發布今年13-15%的驚人經濟成長率預估，比中國還好；中經院經濟展 望中心王儷容表示，受惠於東協轉口貿易港優勢，當東協國家表現優異，新加坡自然也會跟著好，相較於新加坡有東協撐腰，台灣則無法同樣受惠。 王儷容表示，IMF上修東協國家經濟成長率，新加坡身為鄰近國家轉口貿易港，轉口貿易占新加坡經濟成長比率很大，當東協國家經濟表現亮眼，對新加坡勢必有 很大影響。 洛桑管理學院的世界競爭力報告新加坡名列第一，王儷容認為勢必吸引國際注意力，對新加坡經濟發展又天正面因素，況且新加坡賭場效應發酵中，還有製造業的帶 動等因素，都是新加坡表現亮眼的原因。
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Lex专栏：新加坡的“亚洲边界” SINGAPORE
Sometimes an island of 700 sq km can spread cheer across a surrounding landmass roughly 64,000 times bigger. Singapore's first-half gross domestic product numbers, released on Wednesday morning, helped ensure a good day for equity markets across Asia. Three stocks rose for every stock that fell on the region's 22 benchmarks; only Vietnam closed down. | 有的时候，一座700平方公里的岛屿能把欢欣喜悦传播到周边约6.4万倍大的地域。新 加坡周三早间发布的上半年国内生产总值(GDP)数字，让当天对对亚洲各地股市来说都是一个好日子。该地区22个股市中，上涨股和下跌股数量之比达到 3：1；只有越南股市收盘下跌。 |
There was not much reason, however, for the cheer to spread beyond Asia. That seems appropriate, because Singapore's rampant GDP growth (following a nasty year-ago fall) – an 18 per cent pace in the first half, the fastest since records began in 1975 – is an almost exclusively Asian phenomenon. Singapore is a decent leading indicator for the rest of the region, but not the rest of the world. | 然而，这种欢欣喜悦却没有太多理由传播到亚洲以外。那似乎是情理之中的，因为新加坡狂 飙猛进的GDP增长，可以说是独一无二的“亚洲现象“。与一年前严重滑坡的经济相比，新加坡今年上半年增速达到18%，创下自1975年有记录以来的最高 水平。对于亚洲其他地区，新加坡是一个不错的领先指标，但对于世界其他地区则不是。 |
Take tourism: Singapore's two new casino-resorts, opened in February and April, have contributed to a surge in visitor numbers and double-digit output gains in the services sector. But the average year-on-year increase in arrivals in May from countries in Asia – led by Indonesia, India and Malaysia – was about triple that from countries outside it. The story is similar with exports. Non-oil shipments to Europe were a significant component of second-quarter growth, thanks largely to base effects. But track back a little further, and it is clear that exports of electronics and pharmaceuticals to Japan, China, Korea and Taiwan are what caused overall volumes to grow at a 20-30 per cent pace every month since December. | 以旅游业为例。新加坡2月份和4月份新开了两家赌场，促成游客数量猛增，服务业实现了 两位数的产出增长。但5月份，亚洲入境游客——主要来自印尼、印度和马来西亚——数量的平均同比增幅，是来自亚洲以外国家游客的三倍。出口方面的情况与此 类似。主要由于基数效应，对欧洲的非石油商品发货在二季度的增长中占了很大比重。但再往前追溯一点，我们就可以明显看出，面向日本、中国大陆、韩国和台湾 的电子产品和制药出口，才是出口总量自去年12月以来以每月20%至30%速度增长的原因。 |
Singapore's projected growth rate of 10.7 per cent for the year might bring inflation-related problems in its wake. And the country is uniquely reliant on trade, with a dependency on exports as a percentage of GDP about twice the Asian average. Singapore's growth trajectory should be lumpy, wherever those shipments end up. But for Europeans and Americans, currently preoccupied by deflation, its problems seem to come from a different world. The decoupling narrative just got a little stronger. | 新加坡今年10.7%的预期增长率，可能会随之带来与通胀相关的各种问题。新加坡是一 个无比依赖于贸易的国家，以占GDP的比例计，出口依赖度约是亚洲平均水平的两倍。无论货物发往什么地方，新加坡的增长轨迹都是起伏不定的。但对于目前深 陷通缩困扰的欧洲人和美国人，新加坡的问题就好像来自另一个世界。脱钩的说法变得更令人信服了一些。 |
Lex专栏是由FT评论员联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析 | |
译者/李裕 |
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