《台灣大劫難》：現實與虛幻的比拼
袁紅冰（中）在《台灣大劫難》發佈會上
中國國務院國台灣事務辦公室發言人楊毅周三（25日）在北京舉行的例行新聞發佈會上駁斥最近在台灣出版的一本新書《2012台灣大劫難》。
這部由中國流亡作家、前北大法學教授袁紅冰撰寫的新書預測在2012年之前中共將全面控制台灣的政治、經濟、軍事和文化，並籌組社會民主黨作為在台灣的代理黨。
中國國台辦發言人楊毅在回答記者提問時用三個四字成語直接駁斥了這種說法：「無稽之談，憑空捏造，匪夷所思。」
統戰底牌
《台灣大劫難》一書提到，中共對台統戰方案的思路是先經後政，以經促統。先實現經濟統一，再實現政治統一。
經濟統一分兩步走，一個是簽署兩岸金融監管合作備忘錄（MOU）等一系列兩岸金融協議，實現金融統一；另一個是簽署兩岸經濟合作架構協議（ECFA）實現兩岸市場一體化。
而有關政治統一手法，該書稱2008年5月馬英九當選總統後，中共召開政治局擴大會議，決定在2012年不戰而勝台灣，會議通過「解決台灣問題的政治戰略」、「關於對台軍事鬥爭準備預案」和「統一台灣的政治法律處置預案」三大機密文件。
據作者袁紅冰本人介紹，他的書主要以這三份中共對台政治戰略的材料為基礎，並稱有關材料是由中共內部有良知的人士傳出。
在新書於11月23日發佈前，袁紅冰呼籲，台灣是中共在全世界範圍進行集權主義擴張的第一步。如果台灣喪失了自由，整個人類的自由都會受到威脅。
他形容，這將會是一個巨大的歷史倒退，也是台灣的大劫難。
警世之言
你需要安裝正確版本的Flash播放器播放這些音視材料
台灣綜合研究院研究員、前中共中央黨校理論研究室主任阮銘剛剛讀過這本書，他在接受BBC中文網的採訪時首先肯定了作者袁紅冰想要通過這本書達到的警世目的。
他說，《台灣大劫難》的價值是，它要提醒人們看到中國確實在那裏威脅台灣本身的自由民主的存在，這是不可否認的。
雖然阮銘本人對袁紅冰在書中提及的三份中共對台政策秘密文件的真實性存有一些疑慮，但書中分析的北京對台政策思路卻不容置疑。
阮銘說，中共從蔣經國執政時代就已啟動對台統戰工作，李登輝和陳水扁在任期間也一直沒有停止。
2005年連戰訪問大陸與胡錦濤會面，達成國共兩黨解決兩岸問題的共識，但當時國民黨還是在野黨。
而馬英九上台後基本上就是要落實「連胡會」的精神。那就是促進兩岸經濟全面交流，建立兩岸經濟合作機制，推動兩岸關係和平穩定發展。
阮銘說，最近在新加坡舉行的連胡會上雙方再次確認了這一精神，並強調要加快突破兩岸政治難題。
反應不一
連戰與胡錦濤在新加坡舉行會晤
台灣民進黨立委陳亭妃周三（25日）要求總統馬英九和國安會秘書長蘇起，說明《台灣大劫難》一書中資料來源狀況，在調查過程及資料沒有說明前，應立即停止江陳會，立即停止任何的協議動作，台灣不能接受這樣的密謀。
而執政的國民黨到目前為止尚未對這本書做出任何反應，不僅如此台灣媒體對該書的報道也非常有限。只有《自由時報》報道了這本書的發行。
也有報道稱，由於這本新書觸動兩岸敏感神經，一些連鎖書店都拒絕上架銷售。由此可以看出，《台灣大劫難》一上市就遇到政治阻力。
阮銘認為，該書在台灣遭遇冷落的主要原因還是目前執政的國民黨熱衷向北京靠攏，不願受到任何干擾。
前不久公映的好萊塢科幻災難片《2012》描述了瑪雅人有關人類文明在2012年終結的預言成真的景象。
而《台灣大劫難》也把時間鎖定在2012年，因為2012年剛好是兩岸領導人換屆之年。
有分析人士認為胡錦濤為繼續執政需要做出一些非常舉動，解決台灣問題可以說是一個首選課題。另外，如果國民黨失去政權，北京擔心統一大業難以實現。
阮銘承認，《台灣大劫難》一書中不乏一些想像的虛擬成分，尤其是在最後兩章裏，但它要傳遞出的訊息確是很現實的。
Beijing's Strategies to Control Taiwan by 2012
TAIPEI, Taiwan—The Chinese communist regime is determined to “unify” with Taiwan by 2012, according to exiled Chinese law professor Yuan Hongbing. He discloses confidential findings in his new book, Taiwan Disaster, which was released on Nov. 17 in Taipei.
In his presentation at National Taiwan University on November 17, Yuan said that a lot of documents quoted in the book were provided by regime insiders—insiders who risked their own lives to reveal the truth.
In his book, Yuan maintains that, through its strategy of unifying the market and financial systems of the mainland with those of Taiwan, Beijing is, at the same time, stepping up its own reunification agenda with its neighbor.
While Taiwan appears to be benefiting from the current economic cooperation with the mainland, in the end Beijing plans to achieve its political endgame of "Unification via the Economy."
In an interview with The Epoch Times, Yuan Hongbing said, "The [global] financial crisis which began in late 2007 resulted from the practice of excessive consumption. It was meant to be an opportunity for mankind to reflect on our worthiness and the true purpose of our lives.
"The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) however, is utilizing [the crisis] to achieve its ultimate goal of enslaving the entire human race—with Taiwan as its first target."
Failing to recognize the dangers
Yuan says it appears that the government of Taiwan has failed to sense the danger. Instead, it is trying to instill a single thought in the minds of the people of Taiwan–a thought he believes to be totally opportunistic in nature.
The misguided thought is that as long as Taiwan works in concert with the CCP, it will narrowly escape the impending global economic catastrophe.
Yuan expressed his serious concerns that Taiwan is compromising its democratic principles under pressure from the regime.
He believes that in the face of the information he has disclosed, the people of Taiwan need to rebuild the spirit and values that are the foundational basis of the Republic of China. Taiwan must rebuild its willpower as a nation if it is to maintain its system of liberty, Yuan asserts. Otherwise, it could become impossible for them to recover their confidence in the future.
Source of disclosures
Yuan’s main source for his disclosures of the CCP's political agenda presented itself when he was able to obtain a highly classified document—Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao's June 2008 speech given during the expanded meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the CCP.Yuan said the meeting primarily focused on plotting the strategy behind the Taiwan unification plan. The level of confidentiality of the meeting is also notable: the meeting was deep in a cavern in Beijing’s West Mountain—the Central Military Commission's First Strategic Command Center.
Strategy: make Taiwan economically dependent on the Mainland
In that classified meeting, Wen Jiabao said that the global financial storm of 2008 had provided a precious opportunity for the CCP to settle issues related to the Taiwan strait.
Short on energy and mineral resources, both Taiwan's market and its space are limited. Consequently, importing energy and mineral resources and exporting products are the two lifelines of Taiwan, Yuan said.
Wen is certain that the only way Taiwan's economy can survive the global economic crisis is by relying on the mainland. Therefore, Wen maintains that Taiwan will have to agree to integrate economically with the mainland if it expects to utilize the mainland for its economic development.
Wen also stated that an agreement must be signed to ensure that the rules of economic integration are followed. "Economic integration is by nature, economic unification. Taiwan benefits from it economically, and we [the CCP] fulfil our political goal by doing it," Wen said, according to Yuan.
Yuan also reveals that Prime Minister Li Keqiang explained in depth that in order to break through the investment barrier erected by the government of Taiwan, a number of Taiwan’s merchants will have to be used as agents.
They would, of course, be relatively well paid, and would manage the CCP's investments in Taiwan's banks, insurance companies, and other strategic economic entities.
Li concluded by saying, "To manipulate Taiwan's stock market so it rises or falls according to our will—that will take a lot of capital investment, but the expenditure is worthwhile, considering what we will gain politically."
Strategy: claim large percentage of Taiwan’s export market
Yuan also reveals in his book that the CCP's Economic Unification Plan for Taiwan clearly stipulates a goal of "Market Integration." The mainland would become the primary market for Taiwan's industrial and agricultural export products, accessing 90 percent of Taiwan's total agricultural product output for export in the shortest time possible; the mainland would become the primary source of Taiwan's strategic resources, including energy resources; and the regime would ensure that a target number of 500,000 mainland tourists visiting Taiwan each year would be maintained up to 2012, assuring that the mainland remains the primary source of Taiwan's tourism."
Strategy: erode political platforms from within
Another key strategy of the regime is to erode Taiwan’s politico-economic factions from within. To accomplish this, the regime will focus on corrupting the Kuomintang (KMT) leaders and marginalizing the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP.)The CCP's economic strategy specifically targets the upper-classes of the Kuomintang (KMT), the sponsors of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), and several million Taiwanese merchants.
The book also mentions a confidential 2002 document forwarded from the Secretariat of the Central Committee of the CCP to the Provincial army level. The document stipulates that the CCP should protect any investments made by upper-class KMT members and other influential individuals, including those investments made directly in their names, or indirectly, in their friends' or relatives' names.
The book quotes a 2008 document issued by China’s Central Government which states: “The [Chinese Communist] Party should take advantage of the Kuomintang’s return to power, and complete the reunification of Taiwan by 2012, before the Party’s 18th National Congress.
“This should be achieved by comprehensive unification efforts in political, economic, cultural and social areas. [The reunification] will completely smash the conspiracy of domestic and foreign enemies to overthrow socialist China through the utilization of Taiwan’s so-called democratic experiences,” the document reads...
