【即時頭條】中國房市再現狂潮 深圳飛漲50％
深受中國股市泡沫破裂傷害的劉亦輝正指望中國最新一輪投資熱潮的救贖：大城市的房地產。
這位35歲的土木工程師2015年在股市虧損40％後斬倉離場，用剩下的錢在深圳購買了一套500萬元人民幣（763464美元）的住房。過去一年，這個南方商業重鎮的房價上漲逾50％，創下至少2011年以來最快增速。
「這個市場上的人有點瘋，但你還能怎麼辦？」劉亦輝說。他把貸款買下的這套住房作為投資房租了出去。「股市的回報率太糟糕了，所以我決心把錢投進樓市。」
就像購買狂潮推動中國股市估值在2015年6月升至不可持續的水平一樣，借錢炒房的人如今又在大舉買入一線城市的房產，希望這些地方的價格會持續飆漲。貨幣政策刺激和2月份放鬆房地產調控激發的這股熱潮表明，中國政府重振經濟的努力可能反而會加劇資產泡沫。（彭博社新聞）
這位35歲的土木工程師2015年在股市虧損40％後斬倉離場，用剩下的錢在深圳購買了一套500萬元人民幣（763464美元）的住房。過去一年，這個南方商業重鎮的房價上漲逾50％，創下至少2011年以來最快增速。
「這個市場上的人有點瘋，但你還能怎麼辦？」劉亦輝說。他把貸款買下的這套住房作為投資房租了出去。「股市的回報率太糟糕了，所以我決心把錢投進樓市。」
就像購買狂潮推動中國股市估值在2015年6月升至不可持續的水平一樣，借錢炒房的人如今又在大舉買入一線城市的房產，希望這些地方的價格會持續飆漲。貨幣政策刺激和2月份放鬆房地產調控激發的這股熱潮表明，中國政府重振經濟的努力可能反而會加劇資產泡沫。（彭博社新聞）
Shenzhen Landslide Casts Shadow Over China’s Success Story
SHENZHEN, China — With little more than an architect’s drawing and a sales pitch to go by, Tim Chen paid around $500,000 last month for a small apartment being built above a shopping mall on the outskirts of this southern Chinese metropolis.
“I wanted to grab a larger unit in the first batch that went on sale, but I didn’t grab fast enough,” he said in the lobby of the development’s salesroom, echoing an urgency that has gripped many buyers in recent months.
Even as the broader Chinese economy has slowed and as housing values have slumped across much of China, the Shenzhen juggernaut has continued to barrel ahead. High-tech start-ups replaced the factories that had made the city a pioneering showcase of Chinese-style capitalism. Millions of young people moved here from across the country. Construction is everywhere, with prices of new homes surging.
But Sunday’s deadly landslide in Shenzhen, in which a man-made mountain of dirt and construction debris collapsed, is exposing the weaknesses in China’s rapid growth. Disregard for safety standards and environmental regulations remains common despite growing risks, as demonstrated in the Shenzhen disaster, which buried or toppled dozens of buildings and left scores of people missing.
In Jiazitang village, on the outskirts of Shenzhen, Li Xiuhua, a 21-year-old migrant worker, complained on Wednesday about a deserted construction project next door.
“No one seems to care about this construction site anymore,” Ms. Li said, pointing to the heaps of rubble and construction waste alongside the road. “Since I moved here two years ago, the construction has been stopped and no one has come to clear away this waste.”
The landslide in Shenzhen casts a dark shadow over what had come to epitomize the China story, a gleaming metropolis of 11 million people, where only 3.3 million are registered as locals. The migrant city, which did not exist a few decades ago, even seemed to defy the country’s current economic problems.
In November, prices of new homes contracted in 49 of the 70 cities included in the main official survey of the market, data released on Friday showed. Prices in metropolises like Beijing, Guangzhou and Shanghai fared better than in most places, rising 8 percent to 13 percent from a year earlier.
But Shenzhen is in a category of its own. Home prices soared 44 percent last month, the fastest rise in any Chinese city since the official survey began in its current form, in 2011.
The property market has become a vexing political issue at the highest levels. This month, the Politburo of the governing Communist Party announced plans to address an enormous housing overstock nationally, including relaxing restrictions on internal migration to help create demand for homes in outlying cities.
But the frenzy in Shenzhen highlights the difficulties that China faces as it tries to manage a crucial engine of the economy.
The runaway expansion in real estate and construction in recent years — and their slowdown more recently — has led to serious problems with industrial overcapacity and rising debt. In the Shenzhen disaster, the deadly mound of debris was created to fix another problem, the haphazard and sometimes dangerous dumping of dirt and construction waste.
Compared with the rest of China, “Shenzhen has a much higher reputation for dotting its i’s and crossing its t’s, and being much more business-friendly,” said Christopher Balding, an associate professor at Peking University HSBC Business School who has been based in Shenzhen for nearly seven years. “At the same time, I’m not surprised something like this happened, because even in Shenzhen buildings are just flying up.”
Shenzhen is the ultimate symbol of modern China’s economic transformation.
The city, which was only a coastal fishing village when the country started reopening to the world in the late 1970s, leapfrogged ahead of China’s other metropolises on the path of capitalism thanks to its status as a special economic zone, separated from the rest of the country by an internal border. Tax breaks, cheap land and proximity to Hong Kong lured foreign investment. Many millions of migrants from other parts of China provided an able supply of low-cost labor.
In recent years, the area has also transitioned more smoothly than others to the latest phase in China’s development, a growth model that revolves around services and consumer spending. The factories churning out lower-value products like garments and shoes are closing down, relocating inland or heading to cheaper destinations like Southeast Asia and Bangladesh.
In their place, dynamic companies have arisen to cater to China’s rising consumer classes. Tencent, the social messaging and online gaming behemoth, counts Shenzhen as its home base. So do DJI, the world’s biggest consumer drone maker; Citic Securities, heralded as China’s answer to Goldman Sachs despite falling under scrutiny recently; the Ping An Group, an insurance and financial conglomerate; and China Vanke, one of the country’s biggest homebuilders.
The transformation is evident in places like Longhua, where the housing development Unitown is under construction. For decades, the district was part of greater Shenzhen. But it sat on the less-developed side of the internal border that separated the core economic zone downtown from the rest of the city, a barrier that migrant workers from outside Shenzhen were restricted from crossing.
But in the five years since Shenzhen’s internal border controls were abandoned, Longhua evolved into a thriving residential suburb.
An office worker who would provide only her given name, Xia, recently bought a large three-bedroom apartment at Unitown. She and her husband are upgrading from a smaller unit in the same district, where she has lived for about a decade. Their son will be able to walk to school in a few minutes.
“We only looked for apartments in Longhua, because it’s so convenient,” she said. Because of rapidly rising prices, she had to take out a larger mortgage. “That puts a lot of pressure on me,” Xia said.
Shenzhen’s housing market has always been considerably more volatile than that of most of the rest of the country.
“Shenzhen has the least amount of state-owned land of any major Chinese city, and that makes it hard for the government to direct market prices by controlling the supply of land available for development,” said Michael Cole, an expert on the Chinese property market who operates the industry website Mingtiandi. “The government in Shenzhen also appears less strict in the way that they interpret and enforce home purchase restrictions.”
China’s central bank moved in March to ease restrictions in most cities that require buyers of second homes to make a down payment of up to 70 percent of the value of the home, lowering the threshold to 40 percent. But in first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai or Shenzhen, where housing demand remains high, those restrictions are supposed to remain largely in place.
However, in interviews, many realtors and home buyers in Shenzhen said those restrictions had generally been relaxed for people who are buying a second home because they intended to upgrade.
“Shenzhen’s is the freest market in China,” said Zhang Jianwei, a sales agent at Colorful Garden, a new development of more than 500 apartments in the city center.
“Prices rise the fastest, but also fall the fastest,” he added. “It’s capitalism first.”
深圳事故給中國式繁榮投下一道陰影
NEIL GOUGH 2015年12月24日
Brent Lewin/Bloomberg
中國深圳南山區的住宅樓夜景。
中國深圳——僅僅是看了一張建築草圖，聽了一些宣傳，陳永正（音）上月就花了大約50萬美元，在中國南方這個大都市的郊區購買了一套小戶型，樓底是一個購物中心。
「我本來想在他們開售的第一批房子里買套大一些的，但我動作慢了，」他在開發商的售樓處說。最近幾個月來，很多購房者都有這樣的急迫心情。
儘管中國經濟整體在放緩，大部分地方的房價都在下跌，但深圳的房價卻在依然如故地上漲。曾經讓這個城市成為中國式資本主義樣板的工廠，現在被高科技初創公司取而代之。全國各地數以百萬計的年輕人涌到了這裡。到處都在進行施工建設，新房價格持續飆升。
不過，深圳本周日發生的山體滑坡暴露了中國快速增長過程中的薄弱環節。在這起人為的事故中，堆積成山的泥土和建築垃圾發生了垮塌，造成人員傷亡，數十棟建築物被掩埋或沖塌，還有數十人下落不明。在中國，無視安全標準和環保法規的做法仍然很常見，就像在深圳這次的事故中一樣。
本周三，在深圳郊外甲子塘村，21歲的農民工李秀華（音）對隔壁一個廢棄的建設項目滿口怨言。
「似乎沒有人在管這個工地，」李秀華指着堆在路邊的瓦礫和建築垃圾說。「我兩年前搬到了這裡，之後他們停工了，也沒有人來清理這些廢渣。」
深圳本是中國故事的一個縮影，但這起滑坡事件給它蒙上了陰影。在這個閃閃發光的大都市裡居住着1100萬人口，其中只有330萬人擁有本地人的身份。這個移民城市幾十年還不存在，而現在似乎就連中國眼下的經濟問題都影響不了它。
從上周五公布的今年11月新房價格看，在官方調查的70個大中城市中，有49個的房價在下滑。在北京、廣州、上海等大城市，房價走勢比大多數地方強一些，較去年同期上漲了8%至13%。
但深圳卻一枝獨秀。上個月房價飆升了44%，該調查從2011年開始採取目前的形式以來，這是所有城市的最大漲幅。
對於中國最高領導層來說，房地產市場已經成為一個棘手的政治問題。中共政治局本月宣布了一些計劃，希望解決全國範圍內巨大的住房庫存積壓問題，措施包括放寬對國內人口流動的限制，幫助邊遠城市創造住房需求。
但深圳的房價飆升，突顯了中國在試圖掌控一個重要經濟引擎時面臨的難題。
房地產和建築業近年來失控的擴張——及其最近出現的放緩——導致了嚴重的產能過剩和債務攀升問題。在深圳的這起事故中，造成人員傷亡的渣土堆的產生，是用一個問題去解決另一個問題——泥渣和建築垃圾的隨意傾倒，有時這種傾倒會構成危險。
與中國其他地區相比，「深圳在嚴謹細緻上有遠遠更好的口碑，而且為商業提供的便利也好得多，」近七年來一直住在深圳的北京大學滙豐商學院副教授克里斯托弗·鮑爾丁(Christopher Balding)說。「與此同時，發生這樣的事情我也並不吃驚，因為即使在深圳，建築施工也是只圖快不圖好。」
深圳是現代中國經濟轉型的終極象徵。
70年代末中國開始重新向世界開放時，這座城市還只是一個沿海漁村。設立了經濟特區後，一道內部邊境線將該市和國內其他地方隔開了。在資本主義的道路上，經濟特區的身份讓該市大幅領先於中國其他大城市。稅收減免、廉價的土地和靠近香港的地理位置吸引了外國投資。來自中國其他地方的數以百萬計的流動人口，為其提供了有技能而廉價勞動力。
近年來，該地區向中國最新的發展階段，即圍繞服務業和消費性開支的增長模式的過渡，也比其他地區更平穩。生產服裝和鞋等價值較低的產品的工廠紛紛倒閉，或是向內陸轉移，或是搬去了東南亞、孟加拉國等成本更低的地方。
取而代之的是一些富有活力的公司，面向規模日漸龐大的消費階層。社交即時通訊和在線遊戲巨頭騰訊把深圳作為其大本營。以深圳為總部的還有世界最大的民用無人機生產商大疆，在前不久被查但依然被譽為「中國高盛」的中信證券，保險和金融巨頭平安集團以及中國首屈一指的房地產開發商萬科。
正在施工的房地產項目壹城中心所在的龍華區，就鮮明體現了這種變革。在長達幾十年的時間裡，龍華一直是整個深圳的一部分。但該區坐落在內部邊界不那麼發達的一側。這條邊界把作為核心經濟區的城區和該市其他地區分隔開，從外地去深圳的流動務工人員被禁止穿越該界線。
但在深圳廢除邊界後的五年時間裡，龍華發展成了一個繁榮的郊區生活區。
最近，一位只願透露自己叫霞的上班族在壹城中心買了一套三居室。她和丈夫在該區有一套小戶型，但想改善一下。她已經在那套較小的房子里住了大約10年。將來他們的兒子幾分鐘便能走到學校。
「我們只看了龍華的房子，因為很方便，」她說。因為房價漲得快，她不得不增加了抵押貸款的金額。「導致我壓力很大，」她說。
深圳的房地產市場永遠要比其他大部分地區不穩定得多。
「在中國的大城市中，深圳的國有土地是最少的，這導致政府難以通過控制可開發土地的供應，來直接指導市場價格，」研究中國房地產市場的專家邁克爾·科爾(Michael Cole)說。他運營着一家叫Mingtiandi的行業網站。「在解讀和執行房屋限購政策方面，深圳市政府似乎也不那麼嚴格。」
3月，中國央行採取行動，放寬了大部分城市的限購政策，將二套房買主的首付從最高達總房款的70%，降低到了40%。但在住房需求仍處於高位的北京、上海和深圳等一線城市，那些限制措施應該大部分都會保留。
然而，很多房地產經紀人和房屋買家在採訪中表示，對想改善住房條件的二套房買家來說，限制普遍放鬆了。
「深圳是中國最自由的市場，」深圳市中心一個新樓盤的銷售代理張建偉（音）說。該樓盤有500多套房。
「價格漲得最快，跌得也最快，」他接著說。「資本主義最大。」
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