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為世界增長最快經濟區域的領頭羊﹐新加坡在報出有記錄以來最快的經濟增長速度後﹐收緊了貨幣政策。這進一步說明亞洲正在經歷的復蘇遠遠快於西方世界。
Reuters
新加坡金融區夜景
從這些數據可以看到﹐亞洲地區的增長仍在不斷地超出人們的預期﹔增長的不僅是週四上午發佈一季度國內生產總值(GDP)數據的中國﹐還包括它的各個領邦。另外﹐經濟的擴張也在迫使有關部門應對通貨膨脹威脅。
新加坡週三收緊政策出乎很多經濟學家的預料﹐也增強了本地區其他央行採取同樣措施的可能性。澳大利亞、馬來西亞和印度已經上調了利率﹐但韓國和台灣等經濟體把政策保持在了危機時的水平﹐以免破壞經濟復蘇。
亞 洲地區一些央行一直不願意收緊政策﹐因為它們擔心這樣會削弱其出口產品相對於中國的競爭力。儘管按世界銀行(World Bank)的預測﹐今年中國經濟增長率將達到9.5%﹐但中國仍然在事實上讓其本幣盯住了美元。加息往往會使本幣走強﹐使本國產品在全球市場中更加昂貴。 但強勁的整體增長﹐以及中國將在未來幾個月允許人民幣對美元升值的預期﹐或許正在給決策者鬆綁﹐使他們更容易收緊政策﹐而不必擔心本幣走強會損傷仍在復蘇 的出口行業。
按季節性因素調整後﹐新加坡以貿易為主導的經濟在一季度的年化增長率為 32%﹐其中起帶動作用的是製造業躍升139%。新加坡很多電子產品都是面向美國和中國市場而設計的。雖然新加坡這個城市國家的經濟規模相對較少﹐因此 GDP數據波動性較大﹐但畢竟這兩個數字都是1975年有相關數據以來的最高增速。
投資管理公司MFC Global Investment Management固定收益部門執行董事彼得爾森(Endre Pedersen)說﹐這不僅關乎新加坡﹔它還是亞洲相對於世界其他地方強勢復蘇的確證。
新 加坡將其2010年經濟增長預期由4.5%至6.5%提高至7%至9%之間。新加坡央行──新加坡金融管理局(Singapore Monetary Authority)在一項政策性聲明中宣佈﹐新加坡經濟在衰退期間損失的經濟產出已徹底恢復﹐各行業的經濟活動已超過危機前的峰值水平。
亞洲經濟受到該地區消費者的支持。因失業率低及薪資上漲﹐亞洲消費者支出較為自由。更重要的是﹐由於亞洲傳統的消費需求來源北美需求反彈﹐及亞洲內部特別是中國需求增長﹐外部需求推動這些以出口為導向的經濟體經濟繁榮。
電子製造商明顯受益。菲律賓週二報告3月份出口比去年同期增加42.3%﹐主要受技術需求及微芯片價格不斷上漲推動。
即使經濟長期處於困境的日本也已顯露出活力信號﹐貿易及零售業開始活躍。匯豐銀行(HSBC)近期將日本2010年GDP預期由1%上調至1.7%。
新 加坡將其2010年通脹預期由2%至3%上調至2.5%至3.5%。出於政策緊縮目的﹐新加坡金管局稱﹐將通過重設重要的貨幣交易區間﹐使該國嚴格管理的 貨幣新加坡元更為強勢。新加坡金管局還宣稱﹐將允許新加坡元對其基準貨幣繼續進行逐漸小幅升值。新加坡元的基準一攬子貨幣構成是保密的。
這是新加坡在2001年開始政策公開化以來首次採取聯合緊縮措施。
新加坡金管局不以利率政策來控制通脹﹐而是對本國貨幣進行指導﹐這是因為與對外貿易相比﹐新加坡本來規模不大的國內經濟更是相形見拙。貨幣升值可通過降低進口商品價格而壓低國內價格。
除 消費價格通脹外﹐尋求高利率的投機性資金流入及資產價格快速上漲正越來越成為亞洲地區的隱憂。在本週發佈的一篇報告中﹐亞洲開發銀行(Asian Development Bank)將亞洲發展中國家2010年經濟增長預期由6.6%上調到7.5%﹐同時呼籲採取資金控制措施以遏制危機中可輕易撤離該地區的流動資金。這種資 金快速流動會引發經濟不穩定。
Alex Frangos
2010年04月15日11:03
Singapore, a bellwether of the world's fastest-growing economic region, tightened monetary policy after reporting its swiftest expansion on record, in the latest sign that Asia is recovering far more rapidly than the West.More evidence came from South Korea, where a spurt of hiring in the manufacturing sector helped to push jobless numbers sharply lower and Moody's Investors Service raised the country's credit rating to its highest level since the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis.
The data show how growth in Asia -- not just in China, which reports first-quarter gross domestic product Thursday morning, but also among its neighbors -- is continuing to surprise on the upside. In addition, the expansion is forcing authorities to confront the threat of inflation.
Singapore's tightening surprised many economists Wednesday and raised the likelihood that other central banks in the region will follow suit. Australia, Malaysia and India already have raised interest rates, but economies such as South Korea and Taiwan have kept policy at crisis levels for fear of derailing the recovery.
Some central banks in the region have been reluctant to tighten for fear of making their exports less competitive compared with China, which has kept its currency in a de facto peg with the U.S. dollar even as its economy is forecast to grow 9.5% this year, according to the World Bank. Higher interest rates tend to strengthen currencies and make goods more expensive on the world market. However, robust overall growth, and expectations that China will let the yuan rise against the U.S. dollar in coming months, may be making it easier for policy makers to tighten policy without fear that stronger currencies will hurt still-recovering export sectors.
Singapore's trade-dominated economy grew 32% in the first quarter on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, boosted by a 139% jump in manufacturing, much of it electronic goods destined for the U.S. and China. While GDP data from this city-state's relatively small economy are volatile, both figures were the fastest rates of growth since the data series began in 1975.
'This is not only a Singapore story,' said Endre Pedersen, executive director of fixed income at MFC Global Investment Management. 'It's an affirmation of Asia's strength compared with the rest of the world.'
Singapore raised its 2010 growth forecast to between 7% and 9% from a range of 4.5% to 6.5%. The Singapore Monetary Authority -- the city-state's central bank -- said in a policy statement that Singapore's economy has 'now fully recovered the output lost during the recession, and the economic activity in a broad range of industries has exceeded its pre-crisis peak.'
Asia is being helped by consumers in the region, who are free to spend thanks to low unemployment and rising wages. More importantly, these export-oriented economies are thriving on demand from abroad, thanks to a rebound in Asia's traditional customer base in North America and increasing demand from within Asia, especially China.
Electronics manufacturing is a notable beneficiary. The Philippines reported Tuesday its exports rose 42.3% in March from a year earlier, boosted by demand for technology and rising microchip prices.
Even long-struggling Japan has shown signs of life with brisk trade and retail sales. HSBC recently raised its forecast for Japan's 2010 GDP to 1.7% from 1%.
Singapore raised its inflation forecast for 2010 to 2.5%-3.5% from 2%-3%. To tighten policy, the Monetary Authority of Singapore said it will steer its tightly managed currency -- the Singapore dollar -- to a stronger level by resetting an important currency trading band. The MAS also said it would oversee a further 'modest and gradual appreciation' of the currency against its benchmark, undisclosed basket of world currencies.
It is the first time Singapore has taken such coordinated tightening steps since it began disclosing its policy publicly in 2001.
Instead of depending on interest-rate policy to keep inflation in check, the authority guides the local currency because foreign trade dwarfs Singapore's small domestic economy. A higher currency depresses prices by making foreign goods less expensive.
Aside from inflation in consumer goods, an inflow of speculative funds in search of higher interest rates and rapidly rising asset prices are growing concerns within Asia. In a report this week, the Asian Development Bank, while raising its 2010 growth forecast for developing Asia to 7.5% from 6.6%, called for the use of some capital controls to prevent flows of money that could easily leave the region during a crisis. Such rapid flows can destabilize an economy.
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