香港——這是一家不起眼的中藥鋪，出售壯陽的干鹿鞭和明目的蝙蝠糞便，它旁邊是一棟暗色玻璃和灰色不鏽鋼構成的40層高的龐然大物：中共政權的駐港機構。
吳北涵（音譯）出售的中藥材都裝在藥店古舊的木頭抽屜里，對他來說，隔壁那些穿着黑色西裝的幹部們，今冬為他帶來了意想不到的額外生意，搶購用於緩解焦慮的冬桑葉。
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Tim O'Rourke for The New York Times
中聯辦官員們時常惠顧隔壁的這家藥店，購買緩解焦慮的傳統中藥。
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Jerome Favre/European Pressphoto Agency
本月初，抗議者聚集在中聯辦外。數萬人曾上街遊行，反對北京支持的香港政府。
他說，“他們心煩氣躁，來得更頻繁了。”
在中央人民政府駐香港特別行政區聯絡辦公室（簡稱中聯辦）所在的這座摩天大樓里，焦慮是情有可原的。北京的派系鬥爭已經擴散到了香港，今年冬天，在中聯辦長期任職的主任、副主任突然被調職，其他一些副手也接連調職和退休。
中聯辦內的風波恰好與香港、內地不斷加劇的衝突同時發生，可能也加劇了衝突。在香港，已經有數萬人加入了大規模街頭示威活動，反對由北京支持的香港政府。香港居民和許多內地遊客幾度發生衝突，人們也正在策劃一項大規模的非暴力反抗運動。
由北京支持的本地政府，已經採取了一系列行動來緩解居民的不滿。這些措施包括針對非永久居民、特別是內地人購房徵收高額稅率；為了能讓子女獲得合法
的香港居民身份，內地孕婦一度擠滿了香港的產科病房，如今香港政府已下令禁止內地孕婦訪問香港；同時也擱置了在學校里教授歌頌共產黨的愛國主義課程的計
劃。
但政府的支持者也組織了一系列喧鬧但和平的反示威活動。本地媒體的報道，這些支持者僱傭抗議者一下午的費用是25美元（約合156元人民幣），其中有把頭髮漂成金黃色、年輕的街頭混混，這樣的裝束往往意味着他們是黑社會成員。
沒有什麼人認為，為應對香港的政治困局，北京會批准實行更大幅度的民主。在七人組成的中央政治局常委會裡，今後幾年負責香港政策的是張德江，這名在朝鮮受教育的強硬派，來自前國家主席江澤民領導的政治派系“上海幫”。
另一名常委俞正聲上周與張德江一起在全國人民代表大會上發出警告，香港居民必須維護國家安全，這是對擁護民主等西方概念的一種隱晦的威脅。北京的國務院港澳事務辦公室主任王光亞進一步指出，中國的敵人將香港視為“顛覆內地社會主義”的陣地。
長期研究中國政治的專家林和立(Willy
Lam)說，去年11月黨代會上組建的新領導班子，在反對擴大香港政治多元性方面意見是一致的。他們也都深深地懷疑，倡導民主的人是由美國操縱的，在地區
地緣政治局勢緊張的今天，意圖是在中國向東海和南海宣示領土主張之時，在中國的後院生事。
林和立說，“在西藏、香港和台灣問題上，高層們的意見沒有分歧；沒有誰是自由派。”
自從英國在1997年將香港交還給中國，內地對香港的控制權就由北京的國務院港澳辦和位於香港的中聯辦瓜分，國務院港澳辦是中央政府的一個機構，而
中聯辦則受到共產黨的控制。國務院港澳辦多年來在江澤民盟友的控制之下，而中聯辦一直由上周四卸任的前國家主席胡錦濤的盟友掌控。
彭清華是胡錦濤的盟友，曾長期擔任中聯辦主任，去年12月末，他突然被調動到貧困的廣西壯族自治區，擔任省委書記一職。新近到任接替職位的是張曉明，張曉明的整個職業生涯都在國務院港澳辦擔任公職，在那裡有緊密的人脈關係。
長期擔任中聯辦副主任的李剛也在去年12月末丟掉了職位，調到較小的澳門，在澳門中聯辦任職。
北京的一位香港政策顧問稱，彭清華和李剛都拒絕這種調動，他們希望能獲得京內的職位，但卻未遊說成功。鑒於此事的政治敏感性，該名顧問要求匿名。中聯辦拒絕置評。
通過呼籲香港從政治上更加順服北京的意志，張曉明迅速揚名。就在他被任命為中聯辦主任不久前，他曾在一家香港報紙的專欄上呼籲，香港應制定新的國內安全法律。
上一次在香港推動此類立法是在2003年，當時引發了幾十萬抗議者舉行示威支持民主，香港政府迫於壓力擱置這一計劃。
中央政府的強硬派對香港的民主倡導者很擔憂。作為附和，張曉明公開宣稱會抵制任何妄圖插手香港政治的“外國勢力”。他還開始暗示，要重新解讀“一國
兩制”的方針。根據這一方針，香港在中國主權下，維持獨立的司法和經濟體制。張曉明強調了方針中的“一國”部分，聲稱任何時候都必須尊重中國主權。
過去幾周，其他中國官員紛紛響應張曉明的這些言論，這激起了香港人對於未來幾年公民自由會受到侵蝕的擔憂。上周，本屆全國人大發言人傅瑩曾試圖對這些擔憂作出回應。她表示，會堅持“一國兩制”方針。
香港大學(Hong Kong University)法律教授戴耀廷(Benny
Tai)正在組織一場民主運動。這場公民反抗運動將於明年開展，會效法“佔領華爾街”(Occupy Wall
Street)運動，在香港的中心商務區組織大規模靜坐。但上文提到的那位北京的顧問稱，北京方面和香港政府目前都認為，警察能夠應付任何一場抗議活動，
而且，這一區域對香港的繁榮至關重要，如果有任何活動可能引發該區域的長期混亂，公眾也會迅速轉而對其進行譴責。
香港許多長期呼籲民主的人士擔心未來變革的前景。他們預言道，警察及支持政府的反示威人士會採取愈加強硬的立場。香港民主黨(Democratic Party)創始人之一的李柱銘(Martin Lee)稱，“情況會每況愈下。”
從長遠來說，香港的最大問題是，多數居民所要求的民主，遠遠大於北京方面準備容忍的限度。2010年，中國政府稱，“可能”允許全體香港居民在
2017年的特首選舉中投票，而非僅限於香港選舉委員會(Election
Committee)那1200名成員。這1200人當中，約有四分之三嚴格遵守內地政府的指示。
問題是，在普選中，誰會被允許參選。香港過渡期研究計劃(Hong Kong Transition
Project)是一個研究香港民主進程的學術組織。該組織的一份最新調查發現，迄今為止，在香港得到最廣泛支持的方案是：初選對所有候選人開放，全體居
民投票，隨後，兩名得票最高的候選人再參加第二輪投票。81%的香港人支持這種模式。
但是，上述的北京顧問稱，中共不會接受這種做法。需要以某種形式篩選候選人，可能是通過某種類似選舉委員會的形式控制提名程序，以保證那些直言不諱批評北京方面的人士可以造勢，但不會出現在最終的選票上。
中聯辦的巨大鐵門把民主示威者阻擋在外，保安還有備用的鐵柵欄以備不時之需。也偶爾有人駐足看着這座流露出威嚴氣勢的大樓，它頂上有個近四層樓高的神秘的黑色大球。
但是，由於最近幾個月可能會出現更多的民主抗議活動，這座大樓的廣闊視野似乎也安撫不了樓內的辦公者。中醫吳北涵說，“就連隔壁的部門領導都來找我，因為他們感覺不舒服。”
翻譯：曹莉
As Hong Kong Presses for More Democracy, Friction With Beijing Rises
By KEITH BRADSHER March 19, 2013
HONG KONG — Looming over a modest Chinese medicine shop here that
sells dried deer penises for virility and bat feces for vision is a
40-story monolith of dark glass and gray steel: the Hong Kong offices of
the Chinese Communist Party.
For Wu Beihan, who sells traditional remedies from ancient wood
drawers at the medicine shop, the dark-suited cadres next door have
become an unexpected source of extra business this winter, snapping up
anxiety relievers like winter mulberry leaves.
“They have worried hearts and are coming here more often,” he said.
Anxiety is understandable at the skyscraper, the Central Liaison
Office. Factional struggles in Beijing have spilled into Hong Kong, with
the abrupt removal this winter of the long-serving director and deputy
director at the liaison office, together with a rapid-fire series of
transfers and retirements among other aides.
Turmoil at the liaison office has coincided with, and possibly fed,
mounting frictions between Hong Kong and the mainland. Tens of thousands
of people have joined large street demonstrations against the
Beijing-backed government here, scuffles have broken out between Hong
Kong residents and the many mainland visitors, and plans are under way
for a large-scale civil disobedience campaign.
The Beijing-backed local government has responded with a series of
initiatives to allay residents’ objections. These have included steep
taxes on apartment purchases by anyone who is not a permanent resident,
notably mainlanders; a ban on pregnant visitors from the mainland, who
had been clogging Hong Kong’s obstetric wards so as to gain legal
residency for their offspring; and the shelving of a plan for schools to
teach a patriotic education course extolling the Communist Party.
But government supporters have also organized a series of noisy but
peaceful counterdemonstrations. According to local news media, they have
paid as much as $25 apiece to hire protesters for an afternoon,
including young street thugs with the bleached blond hair that often
signifies gang membership.
Few expect Beijing to respond to political difficulties here by
granting greater democracy. The new member of the seven-person Politburo
Standing Committee who is expected to oversee Hong Kong policy in the
years ahead is Zhang Dejiang, a North Korean-educated hard-liner from
the so-called Shanghai Faction in Chinese politics, led by former
President
Jiang Zemin.
Yu Zhengsheng, another member of the Standing Committee, and Mr.
Zhang gave strong warnings at the National People’s Congress last week
that Hong Kong residents must safeguard national security — a thinly
veiled threat against embracing Western concepts like democracy. Wang
Guangya, the director of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office in
Beijing, went further in asserting that China’s enemies see Hong Kong as
a beachhead “for subverting the socialist system.”
Willy Lam, a longtime Chinese politics specialist, said that the new
team installed at the Party Congress in November was united in its
hostility toward greater political pluralism in Hong Kong. They also
share a deep suspicion that democracy advocates are being manipulated by
the United States so as to create trouble in China’s backyard at a time
of geopolitical tensions in the region, as China asserts its
territorial claims in the East China Sea and South China Sea.
“There’s no difference at the top regarding Tibet, Hong Kong and Taiwan; there are no liberals,” Mr. Lam said.
Ever since Britain returned Hong Kong to China in 1997, mainland
China’s influence over the city has been divided between the Hong Kong
and Macau Affairs Office in Beijing, which is a cabinet agency of the
Chinese government, and the Central Liaison Office here, which is under
the Chinese Communist Party. The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office has
been under the control of Jiang Zemin’s allies for many years, while the
Central Liaison Office has been run by allies of former President
Hu Jintao, who stepped down on Thursday.
But the longtime liaison office director, Peng Qinghua, an ally of
Mr. Hu’s, was abruptly moved in late December to become the party
secretary of impoverished Guangxi Autonomous Region. His recently
arrived replacement is Zhang Xiaoming, a lifetime civil servant at the
Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office who retains close connections there.
Li Gang, the longtime deputy director of the Central Liaison Office,
also lost his post in late December, and was transferred to the liaison
office in much smaller Macau.
Mr. Peng and Mr. Li both resisted their transfers, lobbying
unsuccessfully for postings in Beijing instead, said a Beijing adviser
on Hong Kong policy who insisted on anonymity because of the political
delicacy of the issue. The Central Liaison Office declined to provide a
comment.
Mr. Zhang has quickly established a reputation for himself by calling
for greater political obedience here to Beijing’s will. In a column in a
Hong Kong newspaper shortly before he was named to run the liaison
office, Mr. Zhang called for Hong Kong to enact new internal security
regulations.
A previous effort to enact such legislation, in 2003, triggered
pro-democracy demonstrations that drew hundreds of thousands of
protesters and forced the local government to shelve the plan.
Echoing the worries of hard-liners in Beijing about democracy
advocates here, Mr. Zhang has publicly vowed to resist any “foreign
forces” that might try to intervene in Hong Kong politics. He has also
begun hinting at a new interpretation of the legal formula for the
preservation of Hong Kong’s independent legal and economic system under
Chinese sovereignty, which is known as “one country, two systems.” Mr.
Zhang has emphasized the “one country” portion of the formula, stressing
that China’s sovereignty must be respected at all times.
These comments, echoed by other Chinese officials in the past few
weeks, have awakened concerns here that civil liberties may be eroded in
the years ahead. Fu Ying, the spokeswoman of the current session of the
National People’s Congress, sought last week to meet those concerns,
saying that the formula of “One Country, Two Systems” would be
preserved.
Benny Tai, a law professor at Hong Kong University, is organizing a
pro-democracy campaign of civil disobedience for next year that is
supposed to emulate the Occupy Wall Street movement by staging mass
sit-ins in Hong Kong’s central business district. But the Beijing
adviser said that the current view in Beijing and in the Hong Kong
government was that the police could handle any civil disobedience
campaign and that public opinion would quickly turn against any movement
that threatened to cause long-term disruption in a neighborhood
critical to the territory’s prosperity.
Many longtime democracy advocates here are worried about the
prospects for change, predicting an increasingly assertive stance by the
police and pro-government counterdemonstrators. “It’s going to get
worse,” said Martin Lee, a founder of the Democratic Party.
The biggest long-term problem in Hong Kong is that most of the
population wants considerably more democracy than Beijing is prepared to
tolerate. China said in 2010 that it “may” allow the entire population
to vote in chief executive elections in 2017, and not just the 1,200
members of the city’s Election Committee, roughly three-quarters of whom
follow the Chinese government’s instructions closely.
The question is who will be allowed to run in general elections. A
new survey by the Hong Kong Transition Project, an academic group that
studies the territory’s democratic evolution, has found that by far the
most popular option, supported by 81 percent of the population, is to
have the entire population vote in a primary that is open to all
candidates, followed by a runoff between the top two candidates.
But the Beijing adviser said that such an approach was unacceptable
to the Chinese Communist Party. Some kind of screening of candidates is
needed, perhaps through having some version of the Election Committee
control the nomination process, so that outspoken critics of Beijing can
campaign but not appear on the final ballot.
Huge steel gates at the Central Liaison Office bar entry to democracy
protesters, while security guards have extra steel fences standing by
in case they are needed. The faintly menacing building also attracts the
occasional gawker, because it is topped by a mysterious, nearly
four-story black globe.
But with more democracy protests likely in the months ahead, the
building’s commanding views seem little consolation for the occupants
these days. “Even department heads next door come see me,” said Mr. Wu,
the traditional medicine practitioner, “as they’re not feeling well.”
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