We Can Help China Embrace the Future By TONY BLAIR

OPINION

We Can Help China Embrace the Future

By TONY BLAIR
August 26, 2008; Page A21

The Beijing Olympic Games were a powerful spectacle, stunning in sight and sound. But the moment that made the biggest impression on me came during an informal visit just before the Games to one of the new Chinese Internet companies, and in conversation with some of the younger Chinese entrepreneurs.

These people, men and women, were smart, sharp, forthright, unafraid to express their views about China and its future. Above all, there was a confidence, an optimism, a lack of the cynical, and a presence of the spirit of get up and go, that reminded me greatly of the U.S. at its best and any country on its way forward.

These people weren't living in fear, but looking forward in hope. And for all the millions still in poverty in China, for all the sweep of issues -- political, social and economic -- still to be addressed, that was the spirit of China during this festival of sport, and that is the spirit that will define its future.

During my 10 years as British leader, I could see the accelerating pace of China's continued emergence as a major power. I gave speeches about China, I understood it analytically. But I did not feel it emotionally and therefore did not fully understand it politically.

Since leaving office I have visited four times and will shortly return again. People ask what is the legacy of these Olympics for China? It is that they mark a new epoch -- an opening up of China that can never be reversed. It also means that ignorance and fear of China will steadily decline as the reality of modern China becomes more apparent.

Power and influence is shifting to the East. In time will come India, too. Some see all this as a threat. I see it as an enormous opportunity. But we have to exercise a lot of imagination and eliminate any vestiges of historic arrogance.

The volunteer force that staged the Games was interested, friendly and helpful. The whole feel of the city was a world away from the China I remember on my first visit 20 years ago. And the people are proud, really and honestly proud, of their country and its progress.

No sensible Chinese person -- including the country's leadership -- doubts there remain issues of human rights and political and religious freedom to be resolved. But neither do the sensible people -- including the most Western-orientated Chinese -- doubt the huge change, for the better, there has been. China is on a journey. It is moving forward quickly. But it knows perfectly well the journey is not complete. Observers should illuminate the distance to go, by all means, but recognize the distance traveled.

The Chinese leadership is understandably preoccupied with internal development. Beijing and Shanghai no more paint for you the complete picture of China than New York and Washington do of the U.S. Understanding the internal challenge is fundamental to understanding China, its politics and its psyche. We in Europe have roughly 5% of our population employed in agriculture. China has almost 60%. Over the coming years it will seek to move hundreds of millions of its people from a rural to an urban economy. Of course India will seek to do the same, and the scale of this transformation will create huge challenges and opportunities in the economy, the environment and politically.

For China, this economic and social transformation has to come with political stability. It is in all our interests that it does. The policy of One China is not a piece of indulgent nationalism. It is an existential issue if China is to hold together in a peaceful and stable manner as it modernizes. This is why Tibet is not simply a religious issue for China but a profoundly political one -- Tibet being roughly a quarter of China's land mass albeit with a small population.

So we should continue to engage in a dialogue over the issues that rightly concern people, but we should conduct it with at least some sensitivity to the way China sees them.

This means that the West needs a strong partnership with China, one that goes deep, not just economically but politically and culturally. The truth is that nothing in the 21st century will work well without China's full engagement. The challenges we face today are global. China is now a major global player. So whether the issue is climate change, Africa, world trade or the myriad of security questions, we need China to be constructive; we need it to be using its power in partnership with us. None of this means we shouldn't continue to raise the issues of human rights, religious freedoms and democratic reforms as European and American leaders have done in recent weeks.

It is possible to hyperbolize about the rise of China. For example, Europe's economies are still major and combined outreach those of China and India combined. But, as the Olympics and its medal tables show, it is not going to stay that way. This is a historic moment of change. Fast forward 10 years and everyone will know it.

For centuries, the power has resided in the West, with various European powers including the British Empire and then, in the 20th century, the U.S. Now we will have to come to terms with a world in which the power is shared with the Far East. I wonder if we quite understand what that means, we whose culture (not just our politics and economies) has dominated for so long. It will be a rather strange, possibly unnerving experience. Personally, I think it will be incredibly enriching. New experiences; new ways of thinking liberate creative energy. But in any event, it will be a fact we have to come to terms with. For the next U.S. president, this will be or should be at the very top of the agenda, and as a result of the strength of the Sino-U.S. relationship under President Bush, there is a sound platform to build upon.

The Olympics is now the biggest sporting event in the world, and because of the popularity of sport it is therefore one of the events that makes a genuine impact on real people. These Games have given people a glimpse of modern China in a way that no amount of political speeches could do.

London 2012 gives Britain a tremendous chance to explore some of these changes and explain to the East what the modern West is about. One thing is for certain: Hosting the Olympics is now a fantastic opportunity for any nation. My thoughts after the Beijing Games are that we shouldn't try to emulate the wonder of the opening ceremony. It was the spectacular to end all spectaculars and probably can never be bettered. We should instead do something different, drawing maybe on the ideals and spirit of the Olympic movement. We should do it our way, like they did it theirs. And we should learn from and respect each other. That is the way of the 21st century.

Mr. Blair, former prime minister of Great Britain, is teaching a course on faith and globalization at the Yale Schools of Management and Divinity.

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以對話和合作幫助中國擁抱未來
2008年08月27日15:21

Tony Blair

北

京奧運會向世人奉獻了一場壯觀的視聽盛宴。但我最深刻的印象來自奧運前夕非正式拜訪一家中國新創互聯網公司併與中國一些年輕創業者交談時獲得的感受。

這些人無論男女都很聰明、敏銳、直率﹐不畏於表達自己對中國及其未來的看法。最重要的是﹐他們有一種自信、一種樂觀主義。你看不到憤世嫉俗﹐能感受到的是一種站起來勇往直前的精神。這不禁讓我想起黃金時期的美國和其他處於上升期的國家。

這些人不是生活在恐懼中﹐相反﹐他們充滿希望地展望未來。儘管中國還有成百上千萬人生活在貧困中﹐儘管還有各種各樣的問題──政治的、社會的、經濟的──需要解決﹐但奧運期間中國展現出了這種精神﹐而這種精神將決定中國的未來。

在我擔任英國領導人的10年間﹐我目睹了中國作為一個大國加速崛起的過程。我曾發表過有關中國的講話。那時﹐我對它有些理性的認識﹐但還沒有情感上的切身感受﹐因此在政治上沒有充分地理解中國。

卸任後不久﹐我便四次訪問中國﹐近期還會再去。有人問﹐本屆奧運會將讓中國在歷史上留下怎樣的形像﹖答案是﹐它標志著一個新的時代──永遠不會倒退的開放的中國。它還意味著﹐對中國的無知和恐懼將漸漸消失﹐而現代化的中國正成為日益明顯的事實。

實力和影響力正在東移。印度遲早也將進入這一行列。一些人將這種崛起視為一種威脅﹐我認為這是一個巨大的機會。但我們必須運用豐富的想像力﹐並消除以往所有傲慢無知的殘跡。

這次奧運會的志願者團隊熱情、友好、樂於助人。整個城市給人的感覺與我20年前第一次訪問這裡時相比完全是兩個世界。人們對自己的國家及其取得的進步充滿了自豪。

每一個有判斷力的中國人──包括中國領導人──都不否認﹐中國還有人權問題以及政治和宗教自由方面的問題需要解決。但每一個有判斷力的人﹐包括最親西方的中國人﹐都不會懷疑中國已經朝著好的方面發生了巨大變化。中國正在前進的道路上迅速進步。但它非常清楚這條路並未走完。觀察家們務必要看到中國依然存在的差距﹐但他們也應該認可中國已經取得的成就。

中國領導人一直忙於處理內部發展問題﹐這一點可以理解。北京和上海不再能代表整個中國的全貌﹐就像紐約和華盛頓不代表美國一樣。理解中國內部面臨的挑戰是理解中國及其政治和思想的基礎。我們歐洲大約有5%的人從事農業﹐在中國這個比例高達60%。未來數年中國將爭取讓數億農村人口向城市過渡。當然﹐印度也將進行同樣的嘗試。這種過渡將在經濟、環境和政治等方面帶來巨大的挑戰和機會。

對中國來說﹐經濟和社會轉型必須在政治穩定的前提下實現。這麼做也完全符合我們的利益。一個中國的原則不是放任的民族主義的體現。它關乎中國能否在現代化的同時保持和平穩定、團結一致。正因為如此﹐西藏對中國來說並不單純是一個宗教問題﹐而是一個深刻的政治問題﹐畢竟﹐西藏雖然人口稀少﹐但其面積佔到了整個中國的四分之一左右。

因此﹐我們必須繼續就這個很多人關心的問題與中國對話﹐但在這個過程中﹐我們應該對中國對這個問題的觀點有一定的瞭解。

這意味著西方需要加強與中國的合作夥伴關係﹐而且是在更深水平上的﹐不僅是經濟合作﹐還要有政治和文化上的溝通。現實是﹐在21世紀﹐任何一件事情如果沒有中國的充分參與都難以做好。我們今天面臨的挑戰是全球性的。而中國現在是一支重要的全球性力量。因此﹐不論是氣候變化、非洲事務、全球貿易還是數不清的安全方面的問題﹐我們都需要中國發揮建設性的作用﹔我們需要它在與我們的夥伴關係中運用實力。不過﹐這並不意味著我們不應繼續提出有關人權、宗教自由和民主改革方面的問題﹐就像歐洲和美國領導人最近幾週所作的那樣。

人們有可能誇大中國的崛起。比如﹐歐洲經濟仍是全球經濟的重要一支﹐其整體實力超過了中國和印度相加的實力﹐但就像奧運會和獎牌榜一樣﹐這種力量對比不會一成不變。現在正是變化的歷史時刻。快速向前推10年﹐每個人都會知道結果。

幾個世紀以來﹐超級大國都在西方﹐其間包括大英帝國在內的歐洲各國﹐到了二十世紀則是美國。現在﹐我們將不得不考慮到一個與遠東分享權力的世界。我想知道我們是否明白它意味著什麼﹐畢竟我們的文化（並不僅僅是政治、經濟）佔據統治地位已經有很長時間了。這將是一次陌生、甚至令人緊張的經歷。就我個人而言﹐我認為它將帶來不可思議的價值。新的體驗、新的思考方式將釋放人們的創造能量。但不管怎樣﹐這都是一個我們不得不面對的事實。對下屆美國總統來說﹐這將是、也應該是其議事日程上的頭等大事。在布什總統領導下中美關係發展良好﹐這也為繼任者搭建了一個堅實的平台。

奧林匹克是目前世界上最大規模的體育活動﹐而且﹐由於人們對體育運動的喜愛﹐它也是給人們帶來切實影響的事件之一。這屆運動會讓人們得以一窺現代中國的真實面貌﹐它的效果是多少政治演講都不可比擬的。

2012年的倫敦奧運會讓英國獲得了一個探究這些變化、向東方展示現代西方社會的絕好機會。有一點可以肯定﹕舉辦奧運會對任何一個國家都是難得的機遇。北京奧運會之後﹐我的想法是我們不必試圖仿效這屆奧運會開幕式的壯觀場面。它已經登峰造極﹐無人能超越了。因此﹐我們應該另闢蹊徑﹐在宣揚奧林匹克理想和精神上著力。我們應該有我們的特色﹐就像他們有他們的特色一樣。同時﹐我們應該相互學習、相互尊重。這是二十一世紀人們應有的風範。

（編者按﹕本文作者係英國前首相布萊爾﹐他現在耶魯大學講授信仰和全球化相關課程。）