30萬人嗆馬 擠爆凱道Thousands of Taiwanese rally against president

Thousands of Taiwanese rally against president

Tens of thousands of Taiwanese have marched in the streets of Taiwan's capital to protest the president's efforts to improve relations with China. Protesters said they were worried that President Ma Ying-jeou was leaning toward China too quickly and that it might bring disastrous political consequences. Saturday's protest is the first mass rally against Ma since his inauguration about 3 months ago. Taiwan's sovereignty has been long disputed between Taipei and Beijing. The two sides split amid civil war in 1949, but China continues to claim Taiwan as part of its territory.

30萬人嗆馬 擠爆凱道

馬 政府五二○上任以來，政經措施一味傾中，台灣主權頻遭矮化，民生經濟空前困窘。台灣社等民間團體因此選在昨天舉行「百日怒吼．全民站出來」八三○大遊行， 東西兩路並進，表達「顧腹肚、護主權、要陽光」的訴求，隊伍最後在凱道會師，人潮塞爆景福門周邊道路，展現了嗆馬的沛然氣勢。（記者方賓照攝）

人數超乎預期 擠不進場

〔記 者李欣芳、施曉光／台北報導〕「百日怒吼．全民站出來」八三○大遊行群眾昨塞爆總統府前凱達格蘭大道，參與民眾以「顧腹肚、護主權、要陽光」等明確的三大 訴求向馬政府嗆聲。遊行人數超乎預期，最後集結的群眾大會地點凱達格蘭大道，群眾太多擠到爆，很多民眾擠不進會場，只能待在附近街道。

這場大遊行大大提振具台灣意識、反對馬傾中路線者的氣勢，主辦單位台灣社秘書長羅致政昨晚宣布，超過三十萬人參與這場活動。

看到活動爆滿的人潮，前總統府資政辜寬敏強調，歷史將永遠記得八三○有三十萬人參與大遊行，如果馬政府再繼續這樣高姿態，一百天後將有六十萬人上街遊行！

八三○「百日怒吼．全民站出來」大遊行，昨天下午分別由集結在東線頂好商圈、西線龍山寺的地點出發。昨晚七時許在凱道啟動公民運動儀式，宣示未來將繼續強力監督馬政府之後圓滿落幕。當寫著「顧腹肚」等字樣的巨型布幔滾向群眾時，晚會達到最高潮。

反馬政府傾中 民眾怒吼

據了解，受到陳水扁前總統海外密帳案風暴影響，民進黨原估計參與人數約五萬人，但昨天活動參與人數超乎預期。民進黨天王只有前主席游錫堃參加，縣市長及公職則由黨主席蔡英文帶隊參與。

蔡英文也語氣堅定地在凱達格蘭大道向爆滿的民眾承諾，要給大家一個更好的民進黨、更民主的台灣。

民進黨秘書長王拓與北社副社長王美琇都認為，這應該是近年來綠營及本土社團所舉辦活動中，民眾自費參與遊行人數最多的一次，全面提振綠營士氣，且這次訴求聚焦很清楚，是一次很成功的遊行。

昨天下午兩點五十分不到，從頂好商圈集結出發的東線隊伍，與從龍山寺前出發的西線隊伍都提前展開遊行。儘管天氣炎熱，絲毫不減爆滿人潮參與遊行的熱情。

敲打鍋碗瓢盆 喊顧腹肚

東 線隊伍是由台獨聯盟主席黃昭堂、台灣社社長吳樹民等人領軍，前總統府國策顧問黃崑虎雖腳傷也坐著輪椅參與遊行。西線隊伍則是由長老教會走在最前頭，包括九 ○八台灣國運動、台教會等多個本土社團及民進黨主席蔡英文領軍的縣市大隊也在西線遊行，沿路有民眾拿著鍋碗瓢盆敲打應和，也有人以鑼鼓助聲勢。

二路人馬會師凱道後，吳樹民代表主辦單位強調，這次遊行展現台灣人民的決心，要向無能的政府抗議。

民眾為「顧腹肚」等訴求昨天聚集在總統府前嗆馬，一個最簡單的「苦」字表達心中的感受。（記者林正昆攝）

動員能量不受影響 反超乎預期

〔記者黃維助、曾韋禎、施曉光／台北報導〕由本土社團發起的百日怒吼遊行活動昨天熱鬧登場，原本以為受扁案打擊，將嚴重影響動員能量，但參與遊行的綠營百 里侯與立委，昨天異口同聲強調，民眾自動參與程度超乎想像，不敢動員的公職人員會後悔，黨內有人不敢協辦遊行，結果證明參與協辦才是對的。

隊伍中也可見嗆扁標語，如「反『馬扁』」，把馬、扁兩人一併嗆，還有人邊走邊聊天，談到扁家族洗錢案時，用不屑的口氣說「那是他家的事」，群眾中不滿扁的情緒明顯高於挺扁。

台南市長許添財指出，從整場遊行活動進行的過程與結果來看，台灣人民已展現團結的力量，「這是一場非常成功的群眾運動」，馬英九應該心中有數，尤其國民黨刻意將這場活動「扣扁帽」，結果證明沒用，人民還是站出來發出怒吼。

理性訴求成功 一掃悲觀氣氛

至於原先綠營內部有人顧忌扁案而對這場遊行採取冷處理的做法，許添財不以為然地說，之前黨內有人很悲觀，「不敢協辦」，但看了遊行場面，證明參與協辦是對的事，大家要對台灣人民有信心，因為人民已展現優質理性的一面。

少數不敢動員公職人員 必定後悔

「本來只動員四、五部遊覽車，但最後追加到三十部」，走完遊行，揮汗如雨的屏東縣立委潘孟安笑著說，藍軍操作過頭，反而激發綠營支持者的動員能量，這次基 層自動參與嗆馬遊行的程度，已超乎他原先的想像，他只能說，少部分不敢動員的綠營公職人員，在看了遊行的場面後，一定會後悔。

民進黨立院黨團總召柯建銘表示，參與遊行的人數超乎預期，一路上看到每個人臉上都充滿陽光，群眾也對民進黨主席蔡英文歡呼、打氣，雖然民進黨現在遭逢重大挫折，只要好好努力，他相信還是可獲民眾支持。

立委田秋堇表示，民進黨財務吃緊，若再補助遊行活動，恐會影響民進黨的募款，所以來抗議的民眾全是自掏腰包，所以這次看到一輛輛的遊覽車只有感動，以往看到一輛輛的遊覽車則是為黨的財務感到不捨。

立委李俊毅說，民進黨切勿因此感到自滿，這只是對馬英九失政的怒吼，不代表民進黨支持度提升，民進黨應更努力。

〔記者盧賢秀／基隆報導〕行政院長劉兆玄昨天下午到基隆了解捷運延伸基隆規劃案，對於大批民眾走上凱達格蘭大道「嗆馬」百日沒績效，劉兆玄來去匆匆，不願回應。

Earthquake toll rising in southern China

An earthquake in southwest China's Sichuan province has killed 15 people and injured nearly a hundred, as houses in rural villages collapsed, state media reported. The United States Geological Survey said the quake, measuring 6.1 on the Richter scale, struck at 4:30 pm on Saturday, about 160 kilometres northwest of Kunming, Yunnan state's provincial capital. Many people in the capital remained outdoors on Saturday evening for fear of aftershocks. A massive quake hit Sichuan province in May this year, killing nearly 70,000 people, with about 18,000 still missing.

中国城乡 人均收入比 3.33：1(2006年为3.28)

在中国新一届领导班子上任六年之后，本周五，中国及境外媒体纷纷公布了2008年是中国城乡差距最糟糕的一年。为此，农业部部长孙政才对中国青年报表示： “中国城乡 人均收入比扩大到了3.33：1。2006年这一差距比估计为3.28，是1984年以来城乡收入差距最大的一年。”

孙政才在最近的一次会议上表示：“特别 是今年一年，城乡收入差距前景更不好预测，这与不确定的农民收入增长因素有关。农民增收的目标可能很难实现。”目前中国农民的数量为8亿，北京理工大学经 济学教授胡星斗认为解决农民人口过多的最好办法是让农村人口逐步脱离农业是中国面临的一项艰巨任务。他说：“不改变城乡人口差距，中国城乡人口收入就得不 到缩减。对于中国社会的发展趋势目前没有其它选择，而差距越大越容易导致中国社会的不稳定。”

2002年开始，中国现任领导人已经优先考虑了如何避免社会出现的两极分化――防止出现的城乡收入差距过大问题。今年三月中国国家总理温家宝在第11届全国人大一次会议中就承诺增加农业开支。

温家宝说：“我们要加大力度，通过多种渠道帮助增加农民收入。”孙政才还在会议上举例说明要在强化农业科技和服务体系、加强和改善农产品市场调控、加大对农业和农村的投入力度等方面帮助农业发展，“积极将农业投入法立法有关的工作，建立支农资金稳定增长的长期机制”。

近十年来，虽然废除了在中国（以这样或那样形 式）存在了2600年的农业税制度。尽管官方几经努力，但数据表明，城乡收入差距在过去的几年间，仍在持续扩大。2000年，中国城乡收入比为2.79: 1，与1984改革开放以来的收入比1.71相比，1984年为最低水平。鉴于如此多的农村人口要依靠数量有限的可耕地过活，农村家庭的收入增长一直落后 于城市家庭。

过去10年中，中国城市的人均收入已经增长了约两倍，而农村地区人均收入的增长率只相当于城市的三分之二左右。胡星斗曾表态说，“如果不改变农村与城市发展不均的趋势，农民的收入就不可能得到增长，离开了城市化发展城乡差距也会越来越大。”

综合报道：严严

The Beijing Olympics

Our revels now are ended

Aug 28th 2008 | BEIJING
From The Economist print edition

rev・el

━━ n., vi. （〈英〉-ll-） 酒宴（をする，をして騒ぐ）; 大いに楽しむ ((in)).
rev・el・(l)er　━━ n.
rev・el・ry
　━━ n. 酒宴.

A substantial pageant, but its fading leaves not a wrack behind

IT ALL went much as China’s leaders had hoped. The ceremonies were spectacular, the stadiums as good as any in the world and China won far more gold medals than any other country. The world’s most important politicians showed up and no one, bar a handful of vexatious foreigners, staged protests. But after spending tens of billions of dollars and huge political energy, China’s leaders might be wondering whether it was all worth it.

The occasional glimpses on national television of their wooden expressions as they watched the closing spectacular of the Olympic games on August 24th revealed little of what they felt. This was a show they had helped to choreograph, sometimes in minute detail. But they have suppressed almost all public discussion about the choices they made and the expense involved.

Officially the games cost $2.2 billion, compared with an original estimate of $1.6 billion. Beijing also spent $40 billion on preparing its infrastructure and cleaning up the environment. But China’s secretive budgeting system makes it impossible to verify these figures. Chinese officials say the infrastructure had to be built anyway and that spending was in line with that of previous host cities. But the impression given was of little expense spared.

Vice-President Xi Jinping, at least, has reason to celebrate. The games were his first big political test since he emerged as China’s leader-in-waiting after a Communist Party congress in October last year. Mr Xi took charge of preparations for the games, a move apparently aimed at demonstrating the importance the party attached to them (officially a lower-ranking Politburo member, Beijing’s party chief, Liu Qi, remained the top organiser). Organisationally the games went well.

Less clear is whether the games will pay the kind of political dividends that China had hoped for domestically and abroad. The gold-medal haul (51 compared with America’s 36 and 23 for Russia) will boost national pride. But many complain about the impact that stringent security precautions and tightened visa restrictions for foreigners have had on business. Security has been particularly intense in Tibet and neighbouring Xinjiang. This may well worsen grievances among their inhabitants and strengthen pro-independence sentiment in both regions.

For all the good cheer generated by the gold medals, the party is clearly nervous of the slightest challenge to its authority. Having named three Beijing parks where protests would be allowed during the Olympics, the police turned down all of at least 77 applications for permission to hold demonstrations. Among those who applied were two women in their 70s who wanted to complain about inadequate compensation for being relocated from their homes. The authorities responded to their request by sentencing both to a year in labour camp, though the sentences are suspended as long as they behave well.

Officials made strenuous efforts to keep disaffected citizens from other provinces away from the capital during the games. But security is likely to be relaxed after the Paralympics, which will be held in Beijing between September 6th and 17th. The grievances, from land disputes to official corruption, that bring thousands of people to the capital every year in a usually futile search for redress will soon resurface. Even in the security-conscious build-up to the games large riots were reported in several Chinese towns over local abuses of power.

Abroad, China’s hospitality (towards those who managed to get visas, at least), lavish spectacles and magnificent new stadiums drew widespread praise. But there will be many doubts about whether all the Olympic bonhomie has transformed the way China sees the world. As China’s response to foreign reactions to the unrest in Tibet in March suggested, this can be worryingly xenophobic. The party still sees it as essential to its legitimacy to portray the country as a victim of Western efforts to contain and dismember it.

Tony Blair, a former British prime minister, argued in the Wall Street Journal this week that the games would mark a “new epoch”, involving an irreversible opening up of China and a steady decline of “ignorance and fear” of the country. But what many outside China saw during the Olympics was a clampdown on dissent and a disdain even for the spontaneous street-party exuberance of previous games. This will hardly dispel worries about the impact of China’s rise.

亞洲新聞

Car Bombing of Police Bus Kills 8 in Pakistan as the Taliban Pursue Security Forces

Ijaz Muhammad/Associated Press

Local residents examined the wreckage of a police bus after a bomb blast in Bannu, Pakistan, on Thursday.

Indian PM: Floods a 'calamity'; aid airdropped in Massive flooding in northern India has displaced nearly two million people and led India's prime minister to call the floods a "national calamity". Manmohan Singh toured the eastern Indian state of Bihar which has been ravaged by the monsoon-swollen Kosi river which breached its banks ten days ago and changed its course. Singh announced an aid package of more than 1.5 million euros. Food and medicine is being airdropped to stranded people. More than 800 people across India have been killed this monsoon season, which lasts until September.

Malaysian opposition leader stages dramatic walkout Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim has used his first day back in parliament to stage a walkout with scores of opposition lawmakers. The walkout occurred during a debate on a proposed law that would make it mandatory for criminal suspects to provide DNA samples. Critics claim that the law is meant to bolster a new sodomy charge against Anwar - the government denies this. Anwar was sworn in as a federal legislator on Thursday after ten years of parliamentary absence following convictions for sodomy and corruption.

Malaysia extends peacekeeping mission in southern Philippines Malaysia has agreed to extend its peacekeeping mission in the southern Philippines by three months. Malaysian Foreign Minister Rais Yatim said his country had acceded to a request by the Philippines to extend the peacekeepers' mandate to monitor a truce between Muslim rebels and the Philippine government. Malaysia has at least 12 peacekeepers on Mindanao island, where the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is fighting government troops for self-rule. Their mandate was to expire on August 31, but with the latest extension they will remain in Mindanao until November 30.

China and Iraq sign landmark oil deal China and Iraq have signed a landmark three billion dollar deal to exploit oil in the Middle Eastern country. According to a statement from the Iraqi Embassy in Beijing, the deal was signed late on Wednesday by Chinese officials and Iraqi Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani. The agreement revives a 1997 contract that granted China exploration rights to the Al-Ahdab oil field in the province of Wassit, just south of Baghdad. The statement said the revised terms of the deal increase the anticipated output from the billion-barrel field to 110,000 barrels per day from the originally planned 90,000 barrels per day. It says the contract is to run for 20 years after production begins three years from now.

We Can Help China Embrace the Future By TONY BLAIR

OPINION

We Can Help China Embrace the Future

By TONY BLAIR
August 26, 2008; Page A21

The Beijing Olympic Games were a powerful spectacle, stunning in sight and sound. But the moment that made the biggest impression on me came during an informal visit just before the Games to one of the new Chinese Internet companies, and in conversation with some of the younger Chinese entrepreneurs.

These people, men and women, were smart, sharp, forthright, unafraid to express their views about China and its future. Above all, there was a confidence, an optimism, a lack of the cynical, and a presence of the spirit of get up and go, that reminded me greatly of the U.S. at its best and any country on its way forward.

These people weren't living in fear, but looking forward in hope. And for all the millions still in poverty in China, for all the sweep of issues -- political, social and economic -- still to be addressed, that was the spirit of China during this festival of sport, and that is the spirit that will define its future.

During my 10 years as British leader, I could see the accelerating pace of China's continued emergence as a major power. I gave speeches about China, I understood it analytically. But I did not feel it emotionally and therefore did not fully understand it politically.

Since leaving office I have visited four times and will shortly return again. People ask what is the legacy of these Olympics for China? It is that they mark a new epoch -- an opening up of China that can never be reversed. It also means that ignorance and fear of China will steadily decline as the reality of modern China becomes more apparent.

Power and influence is shifting to the East. In time will come India, too. Some see all this as a threat. I see it as an enormous opportunity. But we have to exercise a lot of imagination and eliminate any vestiges of historic arrogance.

The volunteer force that staged the Games was interested, friendly and helpful. The whole feel of the city was a world away from the China I remember on my first visit 20 years ago. And the people are proud, really and honestly proud, of their country and its progress.

No sensible Chinese person -- including the country's leadership -- doubts there remain issues of human rights and political and religious freedom to be resolved. But neither do the sensible people -- including the most Western-orientated Chinese -- doubt the huge change, for the better, there has been. China is on a journey. It is moving forward quickly. But it knows perfectly well the journey is not complete. Observers should illuminate the distance to go, by all means, but recognize the distance traveled.

The Chinese leadership is understandably preoccupied with internal development. Beijing and Shanghai no more paint for you the complete picture of China than New York and Washington do of the U.S. Understanding the internal challenge is fundamental to understanding China, its politics and its psyche. We in Europe have roughly 5% of our population employed in agriculture. China has almost 60%. Over the coming years it will seek to move hundreds of millions of its people from a rural to an urban economy. Of course India will seek to do the same, and the scale of this transformation will create huge challenges and opportunities in the economy, the environment and politically.

For China, this economic and social transformation has to come with political stability. It is in all our interests that it does. The policy of One China is not a piece of indulgent nationalism. It is an existential issue if China is to hold together in a peaceful and stable manner as it modernizes. This is why Tibet is not simply a religious issue for China but a profoundly political one -- Tibet being roughly a quarter of China's land mass albeit with a small population.

So we should continue to engage in a dialogue over the issues that rightly concern people, but we should conduct it with at least some sensitivity to the way China sees them.

This means that the West needs a strong partnership with China, one that goes deep, not just economically but politically and culturally. The truth is that nothing in the 21st century will work well without China's full engagement. The challenges we face today are global. China is now a major global player. So whether the issue is climate change, Africa, world trade or the myriad of security questions, we need China to be constructive; we need it to be using its power in partnership with us. None of this means we shouldn't continue to raise the issues of human rights, religious freedoms and democratic reforms as European and American leaders have done in recent weeks.

It is possible to hyperbolize about the rise of China. For example, Europe's economies are still major and combined outreach those of China and India combined. But, as the Olympics and its medal tables show, it is not going to stay that way. This is a historic moment of change. Fast forward 10 years and everyone will know it.

For centuries, the power has resided in the West, with various European powers including the British Empire and then, in the 20th century, the U.S. Now we will have to come to terms with a world in which the power is shared with the Far East. I wonder if we quite understand what that means, we whose culture (not just our politics and economies) has dominated for so long. It will be a rather strange, possibly unnerving experience. Personally, I think it will be incredibly enriching. New experiences; new ways of thinking liberate creative energy. But in any event, it will be a fact we have to come to terms with. For the next U.S. president, this will be or should be at the very top of the agenda, and as a result of the strength of the Sino-U.S. relationship under President Bush, there is a sound platform to build upon.

The Olympics is now the biggest sporting event in the world, and because of the popularity of sport it is therefore one of the events that makes a genuine impact on real people. These Games have given people a glimpse of modern China in a way that no amount of political speeches could do.

London 2012 gives Britain a tremendous chance to explore some of these changes and explain to the East what the modern West is about. One thing is for certain: Hosting the Olympics is now a fantastic opportunity for any nation. My thoughts after the Beijing Games are that we shouldn't try to emulate the wonder of the opening ceremony. It was the spectacular to end all spectaculars and probably can never be bettered. We should instead do something different, drawing maybe on the ideals and spirit of the Olympic movement. We should do it our way, like they did it theirs. And we should learn from and respect each other. That is the way of the 21st century.

Mr. Blair, former prime minister of Great Britain, is teaching a course on faith and globalization at the Yale Schools of Management and Divinity.

See all of today's editorials and op-eds, plus video commentary, on Opinion Journal.

And add your comments to the Opinion Journal forum.

以對話和合作幫助中國擁抱未來
2008年08月27日15:21

Tony Blair

北

京奧運會向世人奉獻了一場壯觀的視聽盛宴。但我最深刻的印象來自奧運前夕非正式拜訪一家中國新創互聯網公司併與中國一些年輕創業者交談時獲得的感受。

這些人無論男女都很聰明、敏銳、直率﹐不畏於表達自己對中國及其未來的看法。最重要的是﹐他們有一種自信、一種樂觀主義。你看不到憤世嫉俗﹐能感受到的是一種站起來勇往直前的精神。這不禁讓我想起黃金時期的美國和其他處於上升期的國家。

這些人不是生活在恐懼中﹐相反﹐他們充滿希望地展望未來。儘管中國還有成百上千萬人生活在貧困中﹐儘管還有各種各樣的問題──政治的、社會的、經濟的──需要解決﹐但奧運期間中國展現出了這種精神﹐而這種精神將決定中國的未來。

在我擔任英國領導人的10年間﹐我目睹了中國作為一個大國加速崛起的過程。我曾發表過有關中國的講話。那時﹐我對它有些理性的認識﹐但還沒有情感上的切身感受﹐因此在政治上沒有充分地理解中國。

卸任後不久﹐我便四次訪問中國﹐近期還會再去。有人問﹐本屆奧運會將讓中國在歷史上留下怎樣的形像﹖答案是﹐它標志著一個新的時代──永遠不會倒退的開放的中國。它還意味著﹐對中國的無知和恐懼將漸漸消失﹐而現代化的中國正成為日益明顯的事實。

實力和影響力正在東移。印度遲早也將進入這一行列。一些人將這種崛起視為一種威脅﹐我認為這是一個巨大的機會。但我們必須運用豐富的想像力﹐並消除以往所有傲慢無知的殘跡。

這次奧運會的志願者團隊熱情、友好、樂於助人。整個城市給人的感覺與我20年前第一次訪問這裡時相比完全是兩個世界。人們對自己的國家及其取得的進步充滿了自豪。

每一個有判斷力的中國人──包括中國領導人──都不否認﹐中國還有人權問題以及政治和宗教自由方面的問題需要解決。但每一個有判斷力的人﹐包括最親西方的中國人﹐都不會懷疑中國已經朝著好的方面發生了巨大變化。中國正在前進的道路上迅速進步。但它非常清楚這條路並未走完。觀察家們務必要看到中國依然存在的差距﹐但他們也應該認可中國已經取得的成就。

中國領導人一直忙於處理內部發展問題﹐這一點可以理解。北京和上海不再能代表整個中國的全貌﹐就像紐約和華盛頓不代表美國一樣。理解中國內部面臨的挑戰是理解中國及其政治和思想的基礎。我們歐洲大約有5%的人從事農業﹐在中國這個比例高達60%。未來數年中國將爭取讓數億農村人口向城市過渡。當然﹐印度也將進行同樣的嘗試。這種過渡將在經濟、環境和政治等方面帶來巨大的挑戰和機會。

對中國來說﹐經濟和社會轉型必須在政治穩定的前提下實現。這麼做也完全符合我們的利益。一個中國的原則不是放任的民族主義的體現。它關乎中國能否在現代化的同時保持和平穩定、團結一致。正因為如此﹐西藏對中國來說並不單純是一個宗教問題﹐而是一個深刻的政治問題﹐畢竟﹐西藏雖然人口稀少﹐但其面積佔到了整個中國的四分之一左右。

因此﹐我們必須繼續就這個很多人關心的問題與中國對話﹐但在這個過程中﹐我們應該對中國對這個問題的觀點有一定的瞭解。

這意味著西方需要加強與中國的合作夥伴關係﹐而且是在更深水平上的﹐不僅是經濟合作﹐還要有政治和文化上的溝通。現實是﹐在21世紀﹐任何一件事情如果沒有中國的充分參與都難以做好。我們今天面臨的挑戰是全球性的。而中國現在是一支重要的全球性力量。因此﹐不論是氣候變化、非洲事務、全球貿易還是數不清的安全方面的問題﹐我們都需要中國發揮建設性的作用﹔我們需要它在與我們的夥伴關係中運用實力。不過﹐這並不意味著我們不應繼續提出有關人權、宗教自由和民主改革方面的問題﹐就像歐洲和美國領導人最近幾週所作的那樣。

人們有可能誇大中國的崛起。比如﹐歐洲經濟仍是全球經濟的重要一支﹐其整體實力超過了中國和印度相加的實力﹐但就像奧運會和獎牌榜一樣﹐這種力量對比不會一成不變。現在正是變化的歷史時刻。快速向前推10年﹐每個人都會知道結果。

幾個世紀以來﹐超級大國都在西方﹐其間包括大英帝國在內的歐洲各國﹐到了二十世紀則是美國。現在﹐我們將不得不考慮到一個與遠東分享權力的世界。我想知道我們是否明白它意味著什麼﹐畢竟我們的文化（並不僅僅是政治、經濟）佔據統治地位已經有很長時間了。這將是一次陌生、甚至令人緊張的經歷。就我個人而言﹐我認為它將帶來不可思議的價值。新的體驗、新的思考方式將釋放人們的創造能量。但不管怎樣﹐這都是一個我們不得不面對的事實。對下屆美國總統來說﹐這將是、也應該是其議事日程上的頭等大事。在布什總統領導下中美關係發展良好﹐這也為繼任者搭建了一個堅實的平台。

奧林匹克是目前世界上最大規模的體育活動﹐而且﹐由於人們對體育運動的喜愛﹐它也是給人們帶來切實影響的事件之一。這屆運動會讓人們得以一窺現代中國的真實面貌﹐它的效果是多少政治演講都不可比擬的。

2012年的倫敦奧運會讓英國獲得了一個探究這些變化、向東方展示現代西方社會的絕好機會。有一點可以肯定﹕舉辦奧運會對任何一個國家都是難得的機遇。北京奧運會之後﹐我的想法是我們不必試圖仿效這屆奧運會開幕式的壯觀場面。它已經登峰造極﹐無人能超越了。因此﹐我們應該另闢蹊徑﹐在宣揚奧林匹克理想和精神上著力。我們應該有我們的特色﹐就像他們有他們的特色一樣。同時﹐我們應該相互學習、相互尊重。這是二十一世紀人們應有的風範。

（編者按﹕本文作者係英國前首相布萊爾﹐他現在耶魯大學講授信仰和全球化相關課程。）

New car taxes in China

這招實在不算什麼 重點是要擋得住國內外之壓力

Car taxes in China

Taking another road

Aug 21st 2008
From The Economist print edition

China finds a way to cut car imports without offending the WTO

LESS than a month after losing its first legal dispute with the World Trade Organisation (WTO), China has introduced a new tax that will achieve much of what it originally wanted, only by another route. Moreover, it is a “green” tax. Who could object to that?

For the past few years China has imposed a special 25% tariff on imported car parts, rather than the usual 10%, if the parts made up more than half of the value of a vehicle. (Imported new cars are also subject to a 25% tariff.) This was to encourage foreign carmakers to use more local suppliers and reduce imports. But America, the European Union and Canada argued that the tariff was against WTO rules. In July the WTO, based in Geneva, agreed.

China may yet appeal. In the meantime, the government has found another way to reduce the flow of expensive automotive imports. On August 13th the government announced a new “green” tax that will come into effect on September 1st. The new tax is meant to reduce fuel consumption and fight pollution. Rather than further raising the tax on fuel, which increased by almost 20% in June, the government is taxing gas-guzzling cars. By an amazing coincidence, most such cars are foreign-made.

Cars with engine capacities larger than 4.1 litres will now incur a 40% sales tax—twice the previous level. Cars with engines between 3 and 4.1 litres will be taxed at 25%, up from 15%. The tax on the smallest cars, with engines smaller than 1 litre, will fall from 3% to 1%. The 8% and 10% taxes on other cars will not change.

The government says the new tax will encourage a shift to more fuel-efficient cars. It will also help Chinese carmakers, as they tend to make cars with engines smaller than 2.5 litres. Foreign carmakers, which make most of the cars with larger engines, will suffer. Imported large-engine cars achieved record sales-growth in the first half of 2008, increasing by 26%, to 80,700 units. Imports of cars with 3-litre engines grew by more than 50%, and imports of sport-utility vehicles were up 79%.

But there were signs of a slowdown even before the new tax. Although the Chinese car market bucked the global trend in the first half, higher fuel costs and tumbling stockmarkets are now putting buyers off. Overall sales are still expected to rise this year by 8-10%, but this is half the level predicted at the start of the year, and far less than struggling foreign carmakers were hoping for.

China’s new tax is canny. It cuts fuel use, reduces imports, benefits local carmakers and may help to improve air quality. It also prevents any more pesky calls from Geneva.

越南 住友金属、台湾CSCと薄板合弁契約を締結 最新の台湾映画

[日系] ベトナムニュース

住友金属、台湾CSCと薄板合弁契約を締結
2008/08/25 19:11 JST配信

　住友金属工業は22日、台湾鉄鋼最大手の中国鋼鉄（CSC）と薄板事業の合弁契約を締結したと発表した。この事業は冷延鋼板・溶融亜鉛めっき鋼板・電磁鋼板などの高級薄板製品を製造・販売するもの。

　合弁会社名は「チャイナ・スチール・スミキン・ベトナム」で、東南部バリア･ブンタウ省のミーサンA2工業団地に工場を建設する。投資額は11億 5000万米ドル（約1270億円）。CSCが51％、住友金属工業が30％、住友商事が5％を出資する。工場は年産約160万トンで、2012年初頭の 稼動を目指している。

最新の台湾映画ヒット作8作品を特集上映－シネマート六本木

写真を拡大

写真＝「練習曲」（©2007 Ziegfeld Films Co.,Ltd）

　シネマート六本木（港区六本木3、TEL 03-5413-7711）で8月23日より、台湾映画の特集上映「台湾シネマ・コレクション2008」が開催されている。

　台湾で高い興行収入を記録した作品を中心に、若手監督による最新台湾映画8作品を上映。2007年度の台湾興行収入1位を記録した映画で、聴覚障害を持 つ青年が自転車で台湾一周旅行をする道中を描いた「練習曲」（チェン・ホァイエン監督）、台湾出身の有名俳優チャン・チェンさんや日本から江口洋介さんが 参加するSFホラー大作「シルク 」（スー・チャオピン監督）、「靴に恋する金魚」のロビン・リー監督による最新作「DNAがアイ・ラブ・ユー」などのラインアップを揃える。料金は1回券 ＝1,300円、5回券＝5,000円。開催期間は9月26日まで。

　同映画館を運営するエスピーオー（六本木3）の担当者は、「台湾映画というとこれまで侯孝賢（ホウ・シャオシェン）監督作品など抽象的で少し難しい作品 が注目を集めてきたが、最近は大衆的でエンターテインメント性の高い作品も多く出てきており、今回はそういった作品を選定した。楽しみながら新しい台湾映 画を知ってもえれば」と話す。

聴覚障害者を対象としたバリアフリー試写会－シネマート六本木（六本木経済新聞）アジア若手監督6人の作品を特集上映－「靴に恋する人魚」など（六本木経済新聞）「アジアフォーカス・福岡国際映画祭」－韓国長編作品の上映復活（天神経済新聞）日本で初の本格的タイ映画祭「タイ式シネマ☆パラダイス」（六本木経済新聞）台湾シネマ・コレクション2008

中國輝煌過往難掩暗淡未來

中國輝煌過往難掩暗淡未來
2008年08月25日10:23

中

國剛剛舉辦了一屆發展中國家主辦過的最恢弘奧運會﹐

將其一系列非凡成就推向了最高潮。自30年前開始改革開放以來﹐中國讓許多民眾擺脫了貧困﹐人數之眾是近代以來任何國家所無法比擬的﹐中國很快將會成為世界第三大經濟體。

現在到了要啃硬骨頭的時候了。

擁有如此成就的中國卻令人驚異地有著一個並不甚光明的未來。推動中國前一階段經濟迅速發展的各種政策效應和社會趨勢大體上已不復存在。

經濟繁榮在很大程度上緣於政治穩定性和經濟自由化相對簡單的結合﹐這使得中國由科技落後的農業國一舉趕上了其他國家。隨著中國人口逐漸老齡化和城市化﹐同時其產業不再像以前那樣與外界隔絕﹐上述結合所產生的效力也逐漸弱化。

布魯金斯研究所(Brookings Institution)學者、曾任世界銀行(World Bank)亞洲業務首席經濟學家的霍米•哈拉斯(Homi Kharas)說﹐幫助中國從貧困發展到當前水平的政策未來將不會產生同樣的效益﹐中國需要適應這一現實。

Associated Press

奧運志愿者們在觀看“鳥巢”燃放的焰火

這並不意味著中國無法延續自1979年開始改革以來的發展勢頭﹐但需要找到新的增長源泉﹐並應對新的挑戰。華盛頓卡內基國際和平基金會(Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)的中國問題學者裴敏欣說﹐中國政府已經收獲了最容易實現的成果。

中國在北京奧運會上的強勁表現可能會提高其信心。為了回應對中國經濟增長可持續性的擔憂﹐決策者們已經著手實施他們所謂的“經濟增長方式的轉變”。中國在研發方面的開支每年增長20%以上﹐這應當會在創新和提高效率方面帶來回報。政府大幅增加了高等院校的招生人數﹐而私營企業在經濟中所佔比重也越來越大。

中國上述努力成功與否將對全世界產生極大影響。中國的崛起令西方許多人焦慮不已──而且肯定會在美國總統大選的最後階段成為討論話題。但如果中國無法保持增長﹐也會損害許多發達國家的利益。

美國財政部長亨利•鮑爾森(Henry Paulson)在上週發表的一篇文章中寫道﹐一些美國人擔心中國會超過美國﹐其實這是操錯了心﹐他們應該擔心中國政府可能不會實施關鍵的改革﹐或是中國將會面臨重大經濟難題﹔中國經濟一旦出現嚴重問題﹐將威脅到美國及全球經濟的穩定。

中國所面臨的挑戰十分廣泛﹐但有三大挑戰最為突出﹕就業人口的轉變、貧富差距擴大以及能源和環境資源方面嚴重的供應瓶頸。


人口


中國的先例可不那麼讓人振奮。拉美和中東的許多發展中國家都在經歷了迅速發展的階段後變得停滯不前。經濟學家們有時稱之為“中等收入陷阱”﹐因為許多國家都未能實現可讓經濟更為繁榮的持續增長。

中國目前正處在一個發展的節骨眼上﹐雖然擺脫了貧困﹐但仍遠遠稱不上富裕。以人均收入計﹐中國在全世界排第100位﹐比納米比亞略高﹐但落後於哥倫比亞。中國國家主席胡錦濤經常說目前是中國改革的“關鍵期”。

未來幾年﹐中國將成為城市人口佔多數的社會。由於城市工人的收入為農民的三倍以上﹐每年有逾1,000萬農村人口涌進城市﹐從而穩步推動了經濟發展。但城鄉人口的比例最終將會穩定下來。屆時人們就必須找到其他辦法來提高收入﹐比如學習新的技能。

除此之外﹐越來越少的勞動力還必須供養越來越多的老齡人口。聯合國預計﹐2010年以後﹐中國的工作年齡人口佔總人口的比例將逐漸下滑﹐2015年後工作年齡人口的絕對值也將開始下降──上世紀70年代開始嚴格實行的計劃生育政策終於要見效了。

中國社會科學院人口統計學家王德文說﹐中國迄今為止四分之一的經濟增長可能得益於年輕且不斷增長的勞動力大軍所貢獻的“人口紅利”。但他和其他學者認為﹐中國未來的增長必須依靠以更少的資源創造出更大的效益﹐也就是說不僅要更努力地幹﹐還要更聰明地幹。

中國在實現產業升級方面正取得一些進展。學者們說﹐中國出口產品的科技含量要比同等收入的國家高很多﹕中國機電產品佔出口產品的比例與富裕程度是中國兩到三倍的國家大體相當。繼續以這種勢頭發展有助於保持中國的競爭力。而北京奧運會的宏偉規模則顯示出﹐中國領導層正努力使中國經濟實現如下轉變﹕把經濟增長的基礎更多建立在成熟的消費者和跨國服務業上﹐減小對農村勞動力和廉價出口商品的依賴。


資源


轉變經濟增長方式的另一個壓力來自於中國經濟增長對全球能源和原材料的巨大消耗﹐以及對國內空氣、可耕地和飲用水資源的破壞。如果不提高經濟增長效率﹐中國的發展終將因這些生產要素的供應出現瓶頸而受到抑制。事實上﹐中國最近幾個月一直為汽油和電力短缺所困擾﹐這表明中國對資源的消費不能是無限度的。

中國人已經在為此做出調整。26歲的邱家新(音)是上海一所學校的管理人員﹐一年前剛剛買了一部別克凱越(Buick Excelle)轎車。但自從政府被迫上調燃油價格以來﹐他上個月一天也沒開過這輛車。邱家新說這輛車現在成了自己的負擔。他現在改乘公共汽車上班了。

中國的年人均能源消費量折合1.4噸石油﹐這個數字還是比較低的。如果中國的人均能源消費量達到美國的水平﹐即每人每年相當於消耗7.82噸石油﹐那麼屆時中國的能源消費量就會相當於目前全世界所消耗的能量。雖然中國要達到美國現在的人均能源消費量遠非一朝一夕之事﹐但即使是現在的全球石油消費量已經使石油公司們難以應付了。

上海中歐國際工商學院的教授許小年說﹐結論是顯而易見的﹐要麼中國的經濟增長會因能源瓶頸而在某個時段停滯下來﹐要麼中國就必須降低能源消耗或大幅提高能源使用效率。

迄今為止﹐中國政府在降低單位GDP能耗方面一直未能實現預定目標。今年上半年中國單位GDP的能耗量僅下降了2.9%﹐降幅不及去年全年的3.7%。包括許小年在內的經濟學家們說﹐中國應改變政府將能源價格人為定在低水平的現狀﹐更多地由市場來決定能源價格﹐這樣才能形成節能壓力。


社會不平等


實施改革開放政策僅僅30年﹐以貧富差距指標來衡量﹐中國已經成了世界上最不平等的社會之一﹐比超級資本主義的美國有過之而無不及。

首先應該承認﹐貧富差距拉大是有其益處的﹐毛澤東時代強制實施的平均主義妨礙了人們勞動積极性的發揮。但中國目前不斷擴大的貧富差距正日益成為社會不穩定因素﹐那些因興建工廠和其他設施而被拆遷的人往往心懷不滿﹐有時還會發起暴力抗議行動。

解決這一問題則需要修補已遭破壞的社會保障體系。雖然中國政府已在著手這方面的工作﹐但工作力度還有待加大。

中國人在挑戰政府權威方面正變得更加大膽。執政的中國共產黨需要拓寬人們表達對政府不滿的合法渠道﹐否則就有可能加大政府與人民間的矛盾衝突﹐從而增加政府應對各種挑戰的難度。

中國共產黨還需要使黨和政府為那些未能從經濟繁榮中獲益的人們擔負起更大責任﹐這是一項艱巨任務﹐因為它需要那些從當今體制下受益最大的權勢階層主動改變現行制度。

卡內基國際和平基金會的裴敏欣說﹐共產黨需要盡全力解決這一問題。他說﹐解決社會不平等問題不僅僅涉及窮人和富人之間的利益調整﹐還會在統治精英內部造成意見分歧。

Andrew Batson / Jason Dean


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Beijing’s Bad Faith Olympics 極惡質的北京奧運

紐約時報

極惡質的北京奧運
Editorial

Beijing’s Bad Faith Olympics

Published: August 22, 2008

The Beijing Olympics still have one more day to run. But the final gold medal — for authoritarian image management — can already be safely awarded to China’s Communist Party leadership.

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Related

Too Old and Frail to Re-educate? Not in China (August 21, 2008)

Beijing got what it wanted out of this globally televised spectacular. It reaped a huge prestige bonanza that it will surely use to promote its international influence and, we fear, further tighten its grip at home.

It pocketed these gains without offering any concessions in return. When it increased repression — rather than loosening up — a supine International Olympic Committee barely offered a protest. Most world leaders, including President Bush, were nearly as complicit.

In Beijing for the opening ceremony, Mr. Bush seemed eager to play the role of the apolitical sports fan, instead of publicly pressing China’s leaders on the ongoing Olympics crackdown. That nicely fit into the Chinese script of talking up sports while shutting down politics.

To win the right to host these Games, China promised to honor the Olympic ideals of nonviolence, openness to the world and individual expression. Those promises were systematically broken, starting with this spring’s brutal repression in Tibet and continuing on to the ugly farce of inviting its citizens to apply for legal protest permits and then arresting them if they actually tried to do so.

Along the way, government critics were pre-emptively rounded up and jailed, domestic news outlets tightly controlled, foreign journalists denied full access to the Internet and thousands of Beijing’s least telegenic residents were evicted from their homes and out of camera range. On Friday, the Chinese police confirmed that six Americans protesting China’s rule in Tibet had been sentenced to 10 days of detention.

Surely one of the signature events of these Games was the sentencing of two women in their late 70s to “re-education through labor.” Their crime? Applying for permission to protest the inadequate compensation they felt they had received when the government seized their homes years ago for urban redevelopment.

A year ago, the I.O.C. predicted that these Games would be “a force for good” and a spur to human-rights progress. Instead, as Human Rights Watch has reported, they became a catalyst for intensified human-rights abuse.

Mr. Bush has taken some note of China’s appalling human-rights record this summer — privately meeting with Chinese dissidents in Washington just before his visit to the Games and gently nudging his hosts on religious freedom while in Beijing. With these repression-scarred Olympics now drawing to a close, Mr. Bush and other world leaders must tell Beijing that its failure to live up to its Olympic commitments will neither be ignored nor forgotten.

The medal count and DVD sales cannot be the last word on the Beijing Games.

BBC 中國

《泰晤士報》的頭條是國際奧委會調查，中國奧運體操金牌選手何可欣是否真的14歲。 報道說，國際奧委會已經下令調查中國當局是否隱瞞何可欣的真實年齡。 何可欣在北京奧運會的女子團體項目和個人高低杠項目都奪得金牌。 不過，一名美國電腦專家沃克指出，他發現官方文件顯示，何可欣只有14歲，而不是官方聲稱的16歲。
《泰晤士報》說，體操項目女選手的最低年齡限制在1981年從14歲提高到15歲，1997年規定至少16歲，以保障年輕運動員的身心健康。 報道說，除何可欣外，另外兩名女體操運動員江鈺源和楊伊琳的年齡也受到了質疑。

《泰晤士報》報道，中國工商銀行已經超越環球最大對手，成為了世界上最賺錢的銀行。 報道說，不過在三年前，中國工商銀行還在政府挽救之列。但是昨天已經超過美國的花旗銀行和英國的匯豐銀行，成為世上最有價值的銀行，今年上半年的純利比去年同期增長了57%。 報道援引在香港的分析家說，中國工商銀行今年上半年的50.5億英鎊純利大幅度超前匯豐銀行的41.3億英鎊。 不過，一些分析家表示謹慎，認為中國的銀行體系尚未成熟，倘若出現全球經濟放緩，中國將無法幸免而受損。

東京証券交易所是僅次于紐約証券交易所的世界第二大交易所。日本泡沫經濟瓦解后，由于股價長期低迷、股票交易沉悶、審核手 續繁雜、維持交易成本高等原因，在東京証交所上市交易的外國企業銳減，目前僅剩下20余家，遠低于1991年高峰時期的127家。為了增加活力，提升交易 收入，東京証交所將目光轉向具有高度成長潛力的中國企業。迄今為止，共有三家中國企業在東京証交所上市。

亞洲互動傳媒有限公司(Asia Media Company Limited，以下簡稱亞洲互動傳媒)于2007年4月26日作為首家中國內地企業在東京証交所創業板上市。這家新興公司主要通過有線電視網提供電視節 目指南，并經營電視節目的廣告代理業務。公開資料顯示，公司的大股東中包括電通、伊藤忠商事、NTT DOCOMO等日本著名企業的投資公司。 前CEO崔建平當初接受《日本經濟新聞》的訪問時表示，盡管在東京証交所上市要比在歐美或香港市場上市接受更為嚴格的審核，但能成為首家在日本上市的中國內地企業"具有歷史性意義"。

私自挪用公司資金 被東京証交所舉報 亞洲互動傳媒股票上市時的首日開盤價為672日元，6個交易日實現股價翻番，當年7月19日曾漲至2055日元，但在12月中旬發行新股后一路下跌。 2008年6月3日，亞洲互動傳媒在其日文網站上發表公告稱，該公司CEO崔建平在未得到公司董事會同意的情況下，私自挪用全資子公司的資金1億多人民幣，為其個人創辦的另一家公司進行債務擔保。崔建平隨后辭去了CEO職務。

亞洲互動傳媒雖然在公告中表示將考慮對崔建平追究民事及刑事責任，但未有任何進展。8月1日，東京証交所正式宣布，為保護股東及投資者的利益，已向北京市公安局舉報，要求追究崔建平的刑事責任。由東京証交所直接出面追究上市公司原經營者，在東京証交所的歷史上是第一次。 影響惡劣 連累其他中國企業 8月19日，東京証交所宣布于次日將該企業轉入"整理板塊"，一個月后的9月20日將其摘牌，勒令退市。8月20日，亞洲互動傳媒的收盤價僅為6日元。 崔建平的行為影響極為惡劣，嚴重損害了日本股民對中國企業的印象，使日本市場認識到投資中國企業的巨大風險。

亞洲互動傳媒 被摘牌的消息，導致去年8月在東京証交所上市的另一家中國企業博奇環保的股票暴跌，8月20日該股票的跌幅一度高達8.49%。東京証交所也承認，因此事 件的影響，已經准備上市的其他中國企業的上市日期已被推遲。 同時，此事件對于大力吸引外國企業上市的東京証交所也是一個極大的打擊。負責上市審核的主承銷商野村証券和東京証交所均受到日本媒體和股民質疑和指責。


過百名以色列恐怖襲擊受害人以及死者家屬在美國起訴中國銀行，指責銀行幫助恐怖組織轉移資金。

這些受害人及受害人家屬的代表律師在美國洛杉磯的高等法院起訴中國銀行股份有限公司，指責中國銀行不顧以色列反恐部門的呼籲，向巴勒斯坦激進組織哈馬斯以及伊斯蘭聖戰組織匯入資金。

根據起訴書，中國銀行從2003年7月起向哈馬斯以及伊斯蘭聖戰組織的帳戶匯入多筆資金，總額高達數百萬美元。這些匯款多數由中東出發，通過中國銀行在美國的分行轉入中國銀行廣州支行的一個帳戶。隨後這些資金再被匯給哈馬斯以及伊斯蘭聖戰組織在以色列、約旦河西岸以及加沙地帶的領導人。

原告代表律師達爾山-萊特納指責中國銀行通過其美國分行將資金轉入哈馬斯以及伊斯蘭聖戰組織的帳戶是違反了美國法律。這兩個組織都被美國視為恐怖組織，法律規定禁止銀行向有關組織的帳戶轉入資金。

達爾山-萊特納譴責中國銀行明知有關資金會被哈馬斯以及伊斯蘭聖戰組織用於恐怖襲擊，仍繼續有關運作。

起訴書稱，哈馬斯以及伊斯蘭聖戰組織通過中國銀行轉帳的資金在2004-2007年期間發動了多起恐怖襲擊。以色列官員在2005年4月曾與中國公安部以及中國人民銀行的官員會晤，要求中國方面對中國銀行採取行動，制止有關的資金流動，但是中國銀行至今仍在進行有關的匯款業務。

中国精心导演的漂亮假象

中国 | 2008.08.22

精心导演的漂亮假象

Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift:

正如许多西方人害怕的那样，也正如中国政府所期望的那样，中国代表队在本届奥运会上收获了源源不断的金牌，把人们的注意力从人权、开幕式"造假"和新闻自 由问题上吸引到比赛场上来了。德意志广播电台在周二晨间节目中采访了《南德意志报》特派北京记者托马斯-吉斯纳，问问他除了赛事之外，有什么发现。

问：吉斯纳先生，您认为北京现在展现给世界的，有哪些是真的，有哪些又只是精心导演的好戏呢？

答：当 然了，奥运会的确是在北京举行，运动员们也都是远道而来参加比赛，还有将近25000名来自媒体的代表。这些都是真的。但是，作为奥运会必不可少的一部 分，比如来自世界各地数以十万计的体育迷挤满赛场的场面，我们却没有看到。在比赛成绩方面，我们觉得自己看到的不过是漂亮的表面现象而已。也许在今后的几 年中，我们才会慢慢知道，谁是这一届奥运会上"兴奋剂比赛"的赢家。

问：那是谁在保持着这种漂亮的表面现象呢？

答：当然主要是奥运会的组织者了，本来国际奥委会是可以阻止这种浮夸现象的产生的，但是它在奥运会的筹备期间就完全听命于北京奥组委，它和北京主办方共同导演了这出戏，甚至还默许了北京对媒体自由的限制。

问：也就是说，您现在已经不能自由获取信息，也不能自由进行报道了吗？

答：本 来规定的每日一次的媒体吹风会，在奥运会刚开始的时候也确实是每天进行的，但是现在已经不是这样了。上周五开了一次新闻发布会，然后就停了两天，主办方也 没有说明理由。周一又开了一次，会上就通知我们，在奥运会闭幕之前还有两次新闻发布会，周三一次，周五一次。北京奥组委不希望外国媒体通过一些敏感问题向 北京施加压力的场景给国内媒体和观众带来不佳影响，因为新闻发布会上也有很多中国记者，他们对于西方记者的发难感到十分惊讶。北京奥组委可能是害怕通过这 样的接触，中国媒体记者也会学来西方的作风，所以想要试图阻断这种直接的碰撞。

问：其实，除了体育赛事之外，还有很多可以报道的东西，媒体也确实已经报道了不少。但是，为什么我们还是能看到比赛场馆里有很多空座位呢？

答：这 也是组织者一开始就精心策划的。比赛一开始的时候，他们用天气太冷、太热、太潮湿等等来解释，还解释说是因为很多观众对预赛不感兴趣。但是，迫于赞助商的 压力，他们渐渐开始动员本地居民来看比赛，把座位填满。主办方显然在比赛之前就给一些机关、单位、学校分发了很多比赛入场券，这也是社会主义文化的一个特 色。政府方面也知道，这些人中，很多根本不会来看比赛，比如有些远在几百公里之外的中学生，他们是没法到北京来看比赛的。但是，这样主办方就可以说，你 看，门票都已经卖出去了，我们也不知道这些人为什么没有来。

德意志广播电台（Deutschlandfunk）

這篇 wsj 說"歐州"
歸為亞洲似乎也沒什麼

Russia Set To Leave A Battered Georgia

漢 | 大 | 中 | 小

2008年08月18日17:11

Russia, under intense diplomatic pressure, announced it will begin pulling troops out of neighboring Georgia -- but it leaves behind a battered Western ally.

Since a separatist dispute flared into open war Aug. 8, Moscow has occupied chunks of Georgia's territory, strangled its economy, cut transport links and damaged key investment projects.

For many former Soviet states ringing Russia, the show of force was a clear warning. 'They want to show nothing is safe here if it isn't under their control,' said Georgian Economy Minister Yekaterina Sharashidze, of the Russian government. 'The goal is to create an economic and humanitarian disaster that will rebound on the government' and topple it.

There's also widespread skepticism in Georgia that Moscow will stick to its commitment to withdraw. Previous pledges to pull back its troops from Georgian territory haven't been honored. In making an announcement Sunday, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev gave no timetable for the completion of the pullout.

On Tuesday, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will attend an emergency session of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in Brussels to fashion a more detailed response to Russia's actions.

A White House spokesman, Gordon Johndroe, said NATO countries are likely to put Georgia and Ukraine on the track to becoming members of the Western military alliance at a meeting of foreign ministers in December. The U.S. failed to persuade other NATO members to do that at a summit earlier this year, in part because of Russian pressure. (Please see related article.)

In a speech in the Georgian capital of Tbilisi Sunday, Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel said NATO could help with reconstruction and rebuilding Georgia's military once Russia withdraws.

A full reconstruction program will likely require significant external aid. Georgian officials have only just started drawing up estimates for the cost of repairing damage inflicted by the Russian military. The final figure will be 'billions' of dollars, said First Deputy Minister of Economic Development Vakhtang Lejava.

Russian officials deny targeting civilian infrastructure, saying their forces are working to secure weapons caches abandoned by retreating Georgian forces. But events on the ground cast doubt on that.

Events in Poti, a Georgian town on the Black Sea coast, also suggest Russia has used the conflict to draw a noose around Georgia's economy. Though hundreds of miles from the fighting in Georgia's separatist province of South Ossetia and clearly not a military asset, Poti's huge commercial port was targeted 10 days ago in a Russian bombing raid that killed 10 people and wounded 40. The town itself has seen daily incursions by Russian troops who have looted stores, trashed offices and systematically destroyed military infrastructure, according to Georgian officials. Some looting has been captured on local television.

Meanwhile, about eight Russian ships of the Black Sea fleet, including a cruiser, also sailed down the coast and took up position just off Poti harbor, according to city officials. 'They effectively blocked the port,' said Merab Kabunia, head of the border-police unit of the Georgian coast guard. 'It amounted to an economic blockade.' The ships stayed for eight days, he said, obstructing tankers trying to reach the harbor. Russian officials said the ships were there to support the ground forces and ensure transit of humanitarian cargoes.

Poti is a key gateway for goods destined for Azerbaijan and Armenia as well as the landlocked nations of Central Asia. Tajikistan imports alumina powder through Poti and exports finished aluminum. Azerbaijan ships in cars and clinker for cement and exports scrap metal to Turkey, while Kazakhstan exports grain through the port. Armenia, unable for political reasons to trade through either Turkey or Azerbaijan, relies almost entirely on Georgia's railway system, which has a terminus in Poti.

Poti's port isn't the only Georgian economic asset that has come under threat. Russian-backed rebels in the country's second breakaway region, Abkhazia, have moved south to grab a big hydroelectric power station near the Inguri River. Russian planes have also dropped bombs on the Heidelberg cement factory near Gori, and near the BP PLC-run Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which carries 850,000 barrels of oil a day to the Mediterranean, according to Georgia's government. Russia denies targeting them.

Witnesses say Russian troops also assaulted a small military base on the outskirts of Poti, where helicopters landed and blew up a radar installation. Soldiers ransacked the base's warehouse. Their choice of booty surprised the Georgians. 'They cleaned out a store we used for old clothes -- used underwear, old socks,' said a Georgian soldier at the base, who declined to give his name. 'They also took a black-and-white TV set and some tins of motor oil.'

Russian officials denied reports of looting, saying Russian forces were securing weapons and equipment abandoned by retreating Georgian troops. 'The weapons and ordnance are registered, counted and sorted,' said Anatoly Nogovitsyn, a spokesman for the Russian General Staff. 'A decision on their future use will be taken later. Our task is to prevent these arms from spreading out of control across the Caucasus.'

俄羅斯宣佈將撤離格魯吉亞

英 | 大 | 中 | 小

2008年08月18日17:11

在

強烈的外交壓力下﹐俄羅斯宣佈將開始從鄰國格魯吉亞撤軍──但這個西方盟國已遭受重創。

8月8日﹐格魯吉亞政府與分離主義者的爭端激化為公開的戰爭﹐自那以後﹐莫斯科已經佔領了大片格魯吉亞領土﹐掐斷了該國的經濟命脈﹐切斷了其交通要道﹐並使該國一些重大投資項目遭受沉重打擊。

對 於俄羅斯週邊的許多前蘇聯成員國而言﹐這番武力展示是明顯的警告。格經濟部長沙拉希澤(Yekaterina Sharashidze)說﹐俄羅斯政府想讓人們知道﹐不受他們控制就沒有安全可言﹐他們的目標是製造經濟和人道主義災難﹐讓不聽話的國家自食其果並推翻 其政府。

格魯吉亞國內普遍懷疑莫斯科是否會遵守撤軍承諾。俄並未遵守此前表示的從格境內撤軍的承諾。俄羅斯總統梅德韋傑夫週日發表聲明時沒有說明完成撤軍的時間表。

週二﹐美國國務卿賴斯(Condoleezza Rice)將參加北大西洋公約組織(North Atlantic Treaty Organization﹐簡稱﹕北約)在布魯塞爾舉行的緊急會議﹐此次會議旨在針對俄羅斯的行動制定出更詳細的應對措施。

白宮發言人戈登•約翰德羅(Gordon Johndroe)表示﹐北約成員國可能會在12月份的外交部長會議上啟動讓格魯吉亞和烏克蘭加入北約的進程。在今年早些時候的北約峰會上﹐部分由於俄羅斯施加的壓力﹐美國沒能說服其他北約成員國啟動這一進程。

週日﹐德國總理安格拉•默克爾(Angela Merkel)在格魯吉亞首都第比利斯發表講話時表示﹐俄羅斯撤軍後﹐北約會幫助格魯吉亞重建軍事力量。

全面重建可能需要大量外部援助。格官員剛剛開始估算修復被俄軍破壞的設施所需要的費用。格經濟發展部第一副部長Vakhtang Lejava說﹐最終的數字可能達到數十億美元。

俄羅斯官員否認有針對民用設施的破壞行動﹐稱俄軍隊只是在保護格軍撤退後留下的武器庫。但實際發生的事情讓人對此產生了懷疑。

格 魯吉亞黑海沿岸城鎮Poti發生的事件也表明﹐俄羅斯正利用此次沖突扼殺格魯吉亞經濟。Poti巨大的民用碼頭離南奧塞梯的交戰地點數百英里之遙﹐顯然並 非軍事項目﹐但在10天前的俄羅斯炸彈襲擊中卻被列為了轟炸目標﹐轟炸造成10人死亡﹐40人受傷。格官員稱﹐Poti城本身也每天遭到俄羅斯軍隊的襲扰 ﹐後者劫掠商店、搗毀辦公室﹐並有組織地摧毀了軍事設施。當地電視台拍到了一些劫掠場面。

據Poti市政府官員稱﹐與此同時﹐俄羅斯黑海 艦隊的大約8艘艦船也沿海岸線而下﹐在Poti港口外駐扎。格魯吉亞海岸警衛隊邊境警察局局長Merab Kabunia說﹐他們等於是封鎖了港口﹐這相當於經濟封鎖。他說﹐俄艦隊停留了8天﹐阻止油輪靠港。俄羅斯官員稱﹐這些艦船是為了支持地面部隊﹐並確保 人道主義救援貨物的通行。

Poti是貨物運往阿塞拜疆和亞美尼亞以及中亞內陸國家的重要門戶。塔吉克斯坦通過Poti進口氧化鋁粉並出口 成品鋁。阿塞拜疆進口汽車和水泥渣磚﹐並向土耳其出口金屬廢料﹐而哈薩克斯坦則通過該港口出口糧食。因政治原因而無法通過土耳其或阿塞拜疆進行貿易的亞美 尼亞幾乎完全依靠格魯吉亞的鐵路系統﹐而Poti則是鐵路出海口。

Poti的港口並非格魯吉亞唯一受到威脅的經濟資產。在格魯吉亞第二個 試圖分離出去的地區阿布哈茲﹐俄羅斯支持的叛亂分子已向南方挺進﹐奪取了Inguri河附近的一座大型水電站。格政府稱﹐俄軍飛機還轟炸了格里附近的 Heidelberg水泥廠﹐還有BP-PLC經營的巴庫─第比利斯─Ceyhan輸油管線﹐後者每天向地中海輸送85萬桶石油。俄羅斯否認將這些地方列 為攻擊目標。

目擊者稱﹐俄羅斯軍隊還襲擊了Poti郊區的一個小型軍事基地﹐以直升機著陸並炸毀了一個雷達裝置。士兵們洗劫了該基地的倉 庫。他們選擇的戰利品令格魯吉亞人驚訝不已。基地中一位不願意透露姓名的格魯吉亞士兵說﹐他們掃蕩了一個儲存舊衣服的倉庫──裡面是穿過的內衣和舊襪子什 么的﹐還拿走了一台黑白電視機和幾罐發動機潤滑油。

俄羅斯官員否認了有關搶劫的報道﹐稱俄軍只是在保護撤走的格軍留下的武器和設備。俄羅斯總參謀部發言人諾戈維岑(Anatoly Nogovitsyn)說﹐武器和軍火都作了登記、清點和分類﹐稍後將決定它們將來的用途﹔我們的任務是防止這些武器流落到高加索地區。

Guy Chazan / Marc Champion

Hua Guofeng, 87, Who Led China After Mao, Dies

By KEITH BRADSHER and WILLIAM J. WELLMAN

Published: August 20, 2008

HONG KONG — Hua Guofeng, who helped steer China out of the chaos of the Cultural Revolution after the death of Mao in 1976, but was pushed aside by Deng Xiaoping after a short stint as China’s top leader, died Wednesday in Beijing at 87, the state-controlled media reported.

An official in Mao’s home county, Xiangtan, in Hunan Province in the 1950s, Mr. Hua enjoyed a meteoric rise in the last two years of Mao’s life only to lose power almost as quickly after the death of Mao, his political patron. But Mr. Hua was a bridge between the excesses of Mao’s personality cult and the more pragmatic government of Deng, easing China out of the paranoia and isolation that characterized the final years under Mao.

In one of the first moves during his chairmanship of the Chinese Communist Party and prime minister just after Mao died, Mr. Hua’s security forces arrested the Gang of Four, including Mao’s wife, Jiang Qing, effectively ending the decade-long Cultural Revolution. That movement — an attempt by Mao to solidify his totalitarian grasp on the nation and purge Communist Party officials he considered insufficiently loyal to his revolutionary agenda — had left hundreds of thousands of people dead, hundreds of millions of people traumatized and China’s economy in a seemingly irreversible slump.

Mr. Hua also presided over initial attempts to reinvigorate the state-directed economy, revive the education system and allow urban residents banished to the countryside during Mao’s reign to return to their homes.

But he never managed to put his own stamp on policy in the post-Mao era, and his time in power was brief. His influence evaporated by the end of 1978, and he was stripped of his leadership positions in 1980 and 1981. He lived the rest of his life in political obscurity in Beijing, although he remained a member of the Communist Party’s Central Committee through 1997.

Deng, a veteran of China’s revolutionary struggle who had been alternately promoted and punished by Mao during the previous three decades, used his influence in the army and the Communist Party to make a sharper break with Mao than Mr. Hua favored. But although Deng first reduced Mr. Hua’s influence and then eclipsed him, Mr. Hua helped hold the ruling party together during what might have been a more volatile political transition.

Deng and his allies undertook the gradual but ultimately transformative market-oriented economic changes that a quarter century later have made China a major economic power, showcasing its industrial might, explosive urban growth and national pride to the world during the Olympic Games.

The consensus that has emerged is that Mr. Hua, despite his powerful titles, played a minor role in shaping that outcome, but that he also did not try to suppress the wing of the ruling party that supported faster change.

“He was more a figure who was there when Chinese politics pivoted than himself being a pivotal figure,” said Kenneth G. Lieberthal, a political scientist and China specialist at the University of Michigan. “He succeeded Mao briefly because he was a guy nobody felt could dominate, so he didn’t set off alarm bells in any camp.”

Mao was reluctant to let strong rivals to his rule emerge, purging able administrators like Deng when they seemed to be developing their own power bases. Only in the months before Mao’s death did he elevate Mr. Hua to top positions in the government and the Chinese Communist Party.

Mr. Hua’s greatest virtue for Mao appears to have been personal loyalty. When Mao forced the creation of large agricultural communes during the Great Leap Forward in the late 1950s, he was challenged by his more moderate defense minister, Peng Dehuai.

Mr. Peng accused Mao of having become so out of touch with conditions in the countryside that he did not even know about problems emerging in his home county. Mr. Hua was a senior official in Hunan Province with experience in the county and shrewdly backed Mao against Mr. Peng, who was quickly purged.

The state-run newspaper People’s Daily later wrote, “In the course of this struggle, Comrade Hua Guofeng bravely stood the storm and resolutely protected and implemented Chairman Mao’s revolutionary line and policies.”

Mao’s agricultural policies played a central role in the deaths of tens of millions of Chinese from famine in the early 1960s. But Mr. Hua moved up the ranks of the Communist Party and came to international attention in early 1975, when he was named minister of public security.

He became acting prime minister in January 1976, succeeding Zhou Enlai. Mao confirmed Mr. Hua as prime minister three months later, and appointed him deputy chairman of the Communist Party.

He succeeded Mao as the party’s chairman when Mao died five months later, and he still held China’s top positions when the Gang of Four was arrested. Some Western scholars now argue that the decision to arrest the Gang of Four was made by elder leaders of the military and internal security forces, and that Mr. Hua went along.

But the decision was possibly Mr. Hua’s most lasting achievement, finally ending the influence of Ms. Jiang, Mao’s wife, who was viewed by many Chinese as squandering economic growth and political stability in pursuit of power for herself.

Intentionally or not, he also permitted the more pragmatic Deng to emerge as China’s main policy maker. Deng tapped the expertise of more moderate economic planners, who began relaxing the state’s suffocating grip on all commercial activity, especially in southern China.

Mr. Hua was increasing marginalized in this new order. As the pace of change picked up, he was accused of slavishly adhering to the so-called two whatevers: whatever Mao said was right and whatever Mao did was right.

Having lost most of his influence by the end of 1978, Mr. Hua gave up the post of prime minister to Zhao Ziyang, one of Deng’s protégés, in September 1980. Mr. Hua was forced to relinquish his positions as chairman of the Communist Party and the central military commission in June 1981, and was succeeded in these posts by Hu Yaobang and Deng, respectively. Mr. Hua resigned from the Politburo in September 1982.

Mr. Hua is said to have married and had four children, but little is known outside China about his family.

Keith Bradsher reported from Hong Kong and William J. Wellman from New York.

中國前領導人華國鋒逝世

大 | 中 | 小

2008年08月21日09:25

中

國官方媒體週三報導﹐前中國國家領導人華國鋒當日因病去世﹐享年87歲。華國鋒作為毛澤東的接班人曾擔任國家領導人﹐後來被鄧小平取代﹐並拉開了中國改革開放的序幕。

中國中央電視台(CCTV)表示﹐華國鋒因病醫治無效去世﹐但沒有透露具體病情。

AFP/Getty Images

中國官方通訊社在1976年11月發表
的一張華國鋒照片

毛澤東逝世後﹐華國鋒於1976年9月上台執政﹔但他的權力隨後逐步喪失﹐兩年後鄧小平控制了實權。1981年華國鋒被迫辭去中國共產黨中央主席職務﹐此後退居幕後。

與 中共早些時候失勢領導人被流放偏遠山村的殘酷權力鬥爭結果所不同﹐華國鋒讓位後仍然保留了中共中央委員職位。在華國鋒執政後不久﹐毛澤東遺孀江青和"四人 幫"的其他成員即遭到逮捕﹐也標誌著1966-76年文化大革命(Cultural Revolution)結束。但外界並不清楚華國鋒在逮捕四人幫過程中扮演的角色。

華國鋒被迫辭去中共領導人職務時﹐據稱其中的一個原因是他繼續擁護文化大革命時期的極端激進思想。

華國鋒1921年出生於一個貧窮的家庭﹐15歲參加毛澤東領導下的共產黨游擊隊。那時候﹐中國共產黨正與當時統治中國的蔣介石國民黨政府進行鬥爭。

1949 年中共建國後﹐華國鋒先後擔任了省政府和黨內職務﹐隨後於1969年進入中共中央委員會。次年﹐華國鋒出任毛澤東家鄉湖南省的省委書記。1975年他被任 命為副總理﹐隨後接替周恩來出任總理。在毛澤東逝世後中共黨內各派相互奪權的情況下﹐華國鋒上台執政成為了一個折衷選擇。

中共官方媒體將華國鋒稱為"英明領袖"﹐稱謂較毛澤東的"偉大領袖"稍低。

在華國鋒上台執政時﹐中國還處於文化大革命中。逮捕四人幫象徵著中國這段動蕩和自我孤立時期的結束。

1978年華國鋒對東歐進行了訪問﹐引起外界高度關注﹐次年他又訪問了英國。不過鄧小平將華國鋒視為推動經濟改革的障礙﹐已經開始著手作準備取代他。鄧小平在毛澤東晚年遭到排擠﹐但於1977年7月恢復了正式職務。

在1978年12月的一次中共會議上﹐華國鋒失去了實權。那次會議通過了鄧小平提出的"改革開放"政策﹐將土地承包責任制合法化﹐邁出了中國市場經濟改革的第一步。

本文譯自美聯社(ASSOCIATED PRESS)

巴基斯坦是个四分五裂的国家

时事风云 | 2008.08.20

巴基斯坦是个四分五裂的国家

Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift:

巴基斯坦总统穆沙拉夫宣布辞职后，西方分析家对该国政局继续动荡表示担忧，穆沙拉夫的继任会继续亲西方路线吗，该国将在地区稳定中扮演何种角色？德国之声记者Dirk Mueller就此采访了德国联邦议院外交委员会的基民盟政治家维默尔(Willy Wimmer)。

德国之声问: 维默尔先生，您认为穆沙拉夫是不是对巴基斯坦来说很糟糕，对西方而言却很好呢？

维默尔答: 这个问题很难回答，因为我们必须对巴基斯坦内部的情况和巴基斯坦在与西北部被西方称为塔利班的势力作斗争的过程中所做的贡献加以区别。在此背景下，也许在巴基斯坦新领导人上台两三年后能够回答这个问题。

问: 那么您不想打分，是吧?

答: 仅从以下这一点上，就很难去打分： 穆沙拉夫当政之初，印度北部正在进行一场受到美国支持的军事行动，当时，塔利班试图从阿富汗渗透到中国的穆斯林省份，被印度军队阻止。穆沙拉夫一直在参与 地区政治冲突。这些都是关系全球战略的事件。因此，很难对他做出评价，很难对巴基斯坦今后的未来作出判断，很难说巴基斯坦今后还会不会像穆沙拉夫执政时那 样参与地区冲突，还是会把注意力集中到当前该国急需的内政稳定上。

问: 维默尔先生，您很熟悉巴基斯坦内政。过去几个月，几年里，您多次到伊斯兰堡参加了会谈。您认为将继承穆沙拉夫权力的势力会坚持亲西方的路线吗?

答: 依我看，巴基斯坦的问题还不在于此。巴基斯坦正在向四分五裂的方向发展。俾路支人不想继续属于巴基斯坦。卡拉奇的许多人来自孟买，对伊斯兰堡很不满。旁遮 普族则想和印度重新统一。在巴基斯坦卡看看就会发现该国的这些问题，迄今为止将这些离心力团结在一起的军队现在看起来地位已经下降或者说对自己角色的定位 有了变化。 长期而言，谁将走什么样的路线都非常难说。西方应该对该国有清醒的认识，而不是首先去看巴斯坦在不稳定的北部地区不能完成什么任务，因为巴基斯坦本来就无 法控制该地区。50年来，100年来就是如此。为什么像巴基斯坦这样一个面临四分五裂的国家现在应该在与阿富汗交界的北部边境地区做到从来就没有做到过的 事呢。

问: 不知道我有没有听懂或者理解您的意思，是不是从西方的角度看，我们应该对该国继续民主化道路不感兴趣才是，因为这将加强该国分离主义的力量？

答: 至少这是一个很难回答的问题。我绝不是支持巴基斯坦的极权势力，但是，必须从这个国家有生存机会的角度来看问题。否则这个国家就会分裂，否则某一天当人们 早上翻开报纸时，也许发现巴基斯坦这个国家已经不存在了。 这就是人们不安的原因，因此巴基斯坦必须同时对许多问题作出回答。该国的不稳定程度是其他许多国家从未经历过的。

问:您是一个不回避提问的政治家。因此，我想把我的第一个问题重新问一遍。是否正是在您刚才所谈到的背景下，穆沙拉夫对西方来说是个好总统呢?

答: 他至少是一个能够很好对话的人。从与穆沙拉夫的会谈中我知道，他对德国联邦军的老朋友有很深的敬意。在世界上许多地方都可以看到这类的联系，这当然是双方对话的一个保障。内政上能够贯彻什么，谋求怎样的发展则是另外一个问题。

问: 华盛顿还能够继续对巴基斯坦的政治命运施加巨大影响吗?

答: 华盛顿肯定会为此做出努力。联系到贝布托被谋杀的事件可以看到，许多事情都在华盛顿的直接影响范围内。华盛顿将作出努力，不仅是因为塔利班或是生活在与阿 富汗交壤的巴基斯北部的普什图族人，而是为了中亚的石油和天然气能够从阿富汗和巴基斯坦运往印度的长期计划，为了从中取得决定性地位。这是大的战略考量， 就美国的利益而言，谁担任巴基斯坦总统和总理将具有重要的意义。

Hong-Lim Park

獨立43年 新加坡准示威

【聯合報╱編譯陳世欽／綜合十九日外電報導】 2008.08.20 02:12 am

芳林公園的「演說者角落」將成為新加坡人民自由舉行戶外示威的場所。 （法新社） 新加坡總理李顯龍十八日表示，新加坡政府將放寬規定，使位於芳林公園的「演說者角落」成為人民自由舉行戶外示威的場所。這是新加坡獨立四十三年來，首度允許人民在戶外自由示威。 李顯龍在年度政策演說中指出，適度開放戶外示威及放寬政治影片管制，允許網路播放政治影片的新措施是新加坡政府逐步推動社會自由化的重要環節。他表示：「政治議題法規必須與時俱進；我們必須改變全面禁止的嚴格政策，使民眾擁有在安全情況下抒發意見的空間。」 按新加坡現行法律，民眾如欲舉行或參與五人以上的示威，事前必須向警方申請並獲准。這項法令讓星國警方可阻擋示威行動，也使得新加坡甚少出現公開示威。未 來在「演說者角落」的示威行動則不由警方監管，而是交給公園管理局維持秩序。不過示威者仍須遵守法律與秩序，避免觸及種族、語言與宗教課題。 目前在新加坡播放政治性影片將被罰款甚至坐牢。依據新規定，准許反映事實的畫面、紀錄片和活動現場的政治錄影，但仍不准散播政治廣告、政黨的片面政治宣傳和歪曲事實的畫面等。 新加坡政府二○○○年在芳林公園劃設「演說者角落」，而成為新加坡政府允許民眾在戶外公開演說的唯一地點，但因限制頗多，很少人按照政府規定，事前向附近派出所提出申請。 這次新加坡開放自由示威，一般認為多少受到中共的影響。中共在北京奧運期間畫定一塊區域，允許非政府組織在戶外示威，使得新加坡出現「連中國都允許示威， 我們卻不行」的聲音。另外，新加坡此前承辦世銀與國際貨幣基金會（ＩＭＦ）年會時，禁止非政府組織舉行戶外示威而遭世銀與ＩＭＦ批評後，讓新加坡政府的思 考開始出現改變。 新加坡四十多年前爆發族裔衝突，新加坡政府至今記憶猶新，也是多年來管制示威的理由。

Pakistan's Musharraf steps down, water

亞洲水源世界36%
污染 60%

Pakistan's Musharraf steps down

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf is resigning after nine years in power, amid impeachment charges based on claims he violated the constitution.

巴總統宣佈下野 國內外反應不一

面對國會彈劾的巴基斯坦總統穆沙拉夫宣佈辭職後，國內外對此做出種種表態。

Thailand

Run, Thaksin, run

Aug 14th 2008 | BANGKOK
From The Economist print edition

Thailand’s deposed prime minister jumps bail. But political turmoil may persist

OnAsia

GIVEN the avalanche of corruption cases tumbling on Thaksin Shinawatra and his wife Potjaman, it caused some surprise in Thailand when the Supreme Court let them leave the country to attend the opening of the Olympics in Beijing. Right up until the early evening on August 10th, the deposed prime minister’s spokesman was insisting that the couple would return that day to Bangkok, to appear in court the next morning. However, they flew instead to London, where they had spent a period in exile following the 2006 military coup.

In a handwritten note faxed to Thai television stations, Mr Thaksin (the puppet-master in the cartoon above) admitted that “I am not a perfect man” but claimed the cases against him were a plot by his political foes, who he said were interfering in the judiciary. He said he hoped to return to Thailand some day but made it sound like that would not be soon. The court was shocked—shocked!—that its defendants had skipped bail, and issued arrest warrants. But its decision to let the couple go to Beijing prompted speculation that they had been given the nod to flee into exile, in the hope of ending Thailand’s three-year political stand-off.

The speculation inspired a sharp recovery in Bangkok’s stockmarket, which had slumped on fears of all-out violence between supporters and opponents of Mr Thaksin. These fears had intensified in late July when Thaksin fans armed with clubs and axes attacked a demonstration by his opponents in the north-eastern city of Udon Thani, injuring around a dozen.

Hopes for calm may be dashed. The main anti-Thaksin street movement, the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD), said its protests would continue until they brought down the government, a coalition led by Mr Thaksin’s allies and headed in his absence by Samak Sundaravej, a ferocious right-winger (whose strings Mr Thaksin is pulling above). Mr Thaksin is still popular among poorer, rural voters. But the urban, elite PAD might be emboldened to press on with its ideas for a “new politics”. What this means in fact is a return to old, pre-democracy politics with a mostly unelected parliament and powers for the army to intervene when it feels like it.

Perhaps a bigger question than what Mr Thaksin’s opponents will do next is what his supporters will do. Those who backed him in repeated elections remain grateful to the first Thai prime minister to give them some tangible benefits, such as cheap health care and village development funds. This has, so far, inclined them to excuse the strong whiff of corruption, and other abuses of power, around his government. Before the 2006 coup his supporters staged huge demonstrations to counter those of his opponents. If these now resume, there is a risk of violence.

Mr Samak will try to soldier on in government, although his People’s Power Party faces being dissolved for electoral malpractice, as was its predecessor, Thai Rak Thai. The mostly anti-Thaksin Bangkok press is talking up rumoured splits in the ruling coalition. But it has consistently underestimated the Thaksinites’ sticking power so far. Mr Samak seems to be trying to build bridges to the royalist and military establishment, making friends with General Anupong Paochinda, the army chief, and appointing Tej Bunnag, one of the king’s advisers, as foreign minister. But Mr Samak’s plans to rewrite the constitution, drawn up last year by a military-appointed panel, may cause fresh splits.

Indeed, it is still not clear what is the root cause of Thailand’s political conflict. Some academics suggest that it is essentially about the royalist establishment’s alarm that Mr Thaksin was building a base of public support to rival that of King Bhumibol. They may fear what will happen when the 80-year-old king’s reign ends. The PAD dresses itself in royal yellow and says it is saving Thailand from Mr Thaksin’s “republicanism”. Such matters cannot be discussed openly in Thailand because of its draconian lèse-majesté laws, which are often abused to sling mud at opponents (see article).

The Thai courts will probably go through the motions of trying to bring Mr Thaksin back to face justice. He may persuade the British courts not to extradite him, arguing he would be denied a fair trial. Of course, the Thai prosecutors and courts could prove him wrong: they could now pursue the various allegations against anti-Thaksin generals, bureaucrats and politicians with the same vigour as they are applying the law to Mr Thaksin.

South Korea president forgives some tycoons

South Korea

Pardon me

Aug 14th 2008 | SEOUL
From The Economist print edition

The president forgives some tycoons

THE leaders of South Korea’s conglomerates or chaebols have long acted as if they were above the law. Kim Seung-youn, chairman of Hanwha, an explosives, construction and insurance group, confessed last year to beating bar workers at a building site with the help of his own goons. He was retaliating after his son was hurt in a scuffle. After a few months in jail, Mr Kim was released on health grounds, and was soon back at his desk running Hanwha. This week, to mark the day South Korea celebrates liberation from Japanese colonialism, the president, Lee Myung-bak, pardoned him and 341,863 others.

They included Chung Mong-koo, the chairman of Hyundai, the world’s sixth-largest carmaker. Last year Mr Chung was convicted of embezzling about $90m from his company, and sentenced to 300 hours of community service. Chey Tae-won, of SK Group, a telecommunications, oil-refining and construction chaebol, was convicted in 2003 of illegal share swaps designed to keep the most lucrative parts of the group in his family’s control. Mr Chey did not serve any time in prison, but was given a suspended sentence. Now Mr Lee has pardoned him, too.

President Lee came to power earlier this year pledging to raise average national income per head to $40,000 a year and to achieve 7% annual economic growth. He has appealed to chaebol leaders to boost investment and jobs. But at his inauguration Mr Lee also promised to back “business leaders who are transparent and put in an honest day’s work”. So the pardons for the three chaebol bosses look a bit odd. Many South Koreans see them as proof that the wealthy are held to different standards from those applied to ordinary citizens.

Mr Lee, a former chief executive of ten different Hyundai group units, has himself been haunted by allegations that his past personal business dealings were less than pristine, particularly with regard to his family’s property sales and the failure of an investment firm he helped found. One of Mr Lee’s prospective ministers and several presidential aides have had to resign after questions were raised over their ethics. The first cousin of the president’s wife was arrested this month after receiving money from a man who wanted to clinch a parliamentary nomination from Mr Lee’s ruling party. The president’s approval rating hovers around 20%. Pardoning business bigwigs will not help it rise.

達賴喇嘛猛批中國實行“文化大革命”

五藏獨人士央視大廈挂示威條幅被捕

北京警方很快將抗議條幅拿下并將示威者逮捕

五名外國藏獨活動人士星期五（15日）再次在北京奧運會期間舉行未經當局允許的示威，他們將一面寫有中英文"西藏自由"字樣的條幅掛在正在興建的中央電視台大廈的一個奧運廣告牌旁邊。

"自由西藏學生運動"組織發言人韓山說，3名美國人、1名英國人和1名加拿大人在北京中央電視台正在修建的"Z"字形總部大廈廣告牌上懸掛了一個藏獨條幅。

爬上廣告牌的是24歲的英國人菲利普﹒科克，以及41歲的加拿大籍人尼科爾﹒裡克羅夫特。

這兩人和另外三名參與示威遊行的藏獨支持者星期五都被警方拘留。

英國天空電視台新聞錄像顯示，身皮抗議條幅、戴著頭盔的藏獨人士將黑白兩色的示威條幅用繩子懸掛在離地6米高的地方，但北京警方很快將條幅拿下。

北京公安局發言人說，他不清楚有關事件，在對記者的有關情況作出評論前，他必須先獲得書面採訪問題。

自北京奧運會上周末開幕以來，"自由西藏學生運動"已在北京組織了幾次示威活動，但每次參與示威的人數不到5人，時間不過幾分鐘，參與示威的外國人後來都被中國當局驅逐，并在五年之內禁止他們再次入境。

中國外交部發言人秦剛星期三在例行記者會上警告說，"不管是中國公民還是外國人，如果想在中國遊行示威，你就必須遵守中國的法律規定。"

此前不久，"自由西藏學生運動"組織表示，在北京奧運會主體育場前舉行藏獨示威的8名該組織活動人士已被北京當局驅逐。

▀ 達賴喇嘛訪法期間猛批中國
達賴喇嘛在巴黎演講時指責中國對藏人實行“文化大革命”，

在北京奧運如火如荼之際，此舉有可能使這位西藏精神領袖與中國政府之間的關系變得更加緊張。

“法國外長將與達賴喇嘛會晤”

達賴喇嘛這次訪問不會見薩爾科齊

西藏流亡精神領袖達賴喇嘛的助理表示，法國外長庫什內將在下周與達賴會晤。

達賴喇嘛正在法國訪問，他的助理馬修﹒理查周四（8月14日）對法新社表示，庫什內與達賴喇嘛將在8月20日在法國西部城市南特會面。

理查說，庫什內曾表示希望與達賴會面，庫什內在周三與他們聯絡。

有法國人指法國總統薩爾科齊屈服於中國的壓力而拒絕與達賴喇嘛會面。

法新社還報道，法國負責外事與人權事務國務秘書拉瑪﹒亞德也表示希望與這位諾貝爾和平獎得主見面。亞德一直高調批評中國的西藏政策。

此外，法國媒體周三（13日）報道，法國一位官員透露，薩爾科齊總統和達賴喇嘛將在12月在法國舉行的慶祝人權宣言60周年的儀式上會面。

中國外交部發言人秦剛在周三的記者會上表示，中方希望法方能夠妥善處理好涉藏問題。

秦剛表示，在涉藏問題上希望法方同中方共同努力，維護目前中法關係得到改善這一來之不易的勢頭，推動中法關係繼續發展。

另一方面，在尼泊爾的警方和目擊者說，在加德滿都中國大使館外至少七百六十名流亡尼泊爾的藏人示威者被逮捕。

尼泊爾境內有大約二萬名藏人，自今年三月中國當局鎮壓西藏的抗議活動以來，在尼泊爾幾乎每天都有藏人示威。

Pakistan : Beyond Musharraf

• Pakistan: Beyond Musharraf

  Pakistan’s government should forget about punishing the president and get on with governing

▀ 穆沙拉夫近日可能宣佈辭職
巴基斯坦總統穆沙拉夫預計將於今後幾天在議會啟動對他的彈劾程序

前宣佈辭職﹐此前有關他下台後不受追究的秘密談判取得了突破。

The Americans arrive Georgia

Russia and Georgia

The Americans arrive

Aug 14th 2008 | GORI, MOSCOW AND TBLISI
From Economist.com

What next for Georgia, as American military cargo-planes land in Tbilisi?

AP

AMERICA'S George Bush delivered a stark warning to Russia this week that led Russia to begin to pull back its forces in Georgia. Mr Bush sent his secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, to Georgia and told his defence secretary, Robert Gates, to organise a humanitarian-aid operation. The first American military aircraft landed at Tbilisi airport on Thursday August 14th.

This conflict is about more than the two separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, or displacing Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgia’s hot-headed president. It is about Russia, resurgent and nationalistic, pushing its way back into the Caucasus and chasing others out, and reversing the losses Russia feels it has suffered since the end of the cold war.

The fact that Georgia is backed by the West made it a particularly appealing target. In fighting Georgia, Russia fought a proxy war with the West—especially with America (which had upgraded the Georgian army). All this was a payback for the humiliation that Russia suffered in the 1990s, and its answer to NATO’s bombing of Belgrade in 1999 and to America’s invasion of Iraq.

With the smoke of battle still in the air, it is impossible to say who actually started it. But, given the scale and promptness of Russia’s response, the script must have been written in Moscow. The rattling of sabres has been heard in both capitals for months, if not years. Russia imposed sanctions on Georgia and rounded up Georgians in Moscow. In revenge for the recognition of Kosovo’s independence earlier this year, Mr Putin established legal ties with the governments of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

In the late spring, Russia and Georgia came close to a clash over Abkhazia but diplomats pulled the two sides apart. A war in Georgia became a favourite subject in Moscow’s rumour mill. In early July Russia staged a massive military exercise on the border with South Ossetia. At the same time Russian jets flew over the region “to establish the situation” and “cool down Georgia’s hot-heads”, according to the Russians.

South Ossetia is a tiny patchwork of villages—Georgian and South Ossetian—which was easy to drag into a war. It is headed by a thuggish former Soviet official, Eduard Kokoity, and run by the Russian security services. It lives off smuggling and Russian money. In early August Georgian and South Ossetian separatists exchanged fire and explosive attacks. South Ossetia blew up a truck carrying Georgian policemen and attacked Georgian villages; Georgia fired back at the capital of South Ossetia, Tskhinvali.

What happened next is less clear. Russia claims that Mr Saakashvili treacherously broke a unilateral ceasefire he had just announced, ordering a massive offensive on Tskhinvali, ethnically cleansing South Ossetian villages and killing as many as 2,000 people. What triggered the Georgian action, says Mr Saakashvili, was the movement of Russian troops through the Roki tunnel that connects South Ossetia to Russia.

Georgia started to shell and invade Tskhinvali. Then the Russian army moved in. The picture Russia presented to the world seemed clear: Georgia was a reckless and dangerous aggressor and Russia had an obligation, as a peacekeeper in the region, to protect the victims. Russia’s response was predictable. One thing which almost all observers agree on is that Mr Saakashvili made a catastrophic mistake by walking into the Russian trap.

Russia was prepared for the war not only militarily, but also ideologically. Its campaign was crude but effective. While its forces were dropping bombs on Georgia, the Kremlin bombarded its own population with an astonishing propaganda campaign. One Russian deputy reflected the mood: “Today, it is quite obvious who the parties in the conflict are. They are the US, UK, Israel who participated in training the Georgian army, Ukraine who supplied it with weapons. We are facing a situation where there is a NATO aggression against us.”

In blue jeans and a sports jacket, Mr Putin, cast as the hero of the war, flew to the Russian side of the Caucasus mountain range to hear hair-raising stories from refugees that ranged from burning young girls alive to stabbing babies and running tanks over old women and children. These stories were whipped up into anti-Georgian and anti-Western hysteria. What Russia was doing, it seemed, was no different from what the West had done in its “humanitarian” interventions.

There was one difference, however. Russia was dealing with a crisis that it had deliberately created. Its biggest justification for military intervention was that it was formally protecting its own citizens. Soon after Mr Putin’s arrival in the Kremlin in 2000, Russia started to hand out passports to Abkhaz and South Ossetians, while also claiming the role of a neutral peacekeeper in the region. When the fighting broke out between Georgia and South Ossetia, Russia, which had killed tens of thousands of its own citizens in Chechnya, argued that it had to defend its nationals.

The biggest victims of this war are civilians in South Ossetia and Georgia. Militarily, Mr Putin has won. But all Russia has got from its victory so far is a ruined reputation, broken ties with Georgia, control over separatist enclaves (which it had anyway) and fear from other former Soviet republics.

A six-point peace plan negotiated by Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, recognises Georgian sovereignty but not its integrity. In practice, this means that Russia will not allow Georgia back into Abkhazia and South Ossetia. According to the same plan, Russia should withdraw its troops to where they were before the war broke out.

The ceasefire is signed, but it still needs to be implemented. The early signs were not good with looting, killing and rapes in villages in both Georgia and South Ossetia. On Wednesday the Americans announced that they would send military aircraft and naval forces to deliver humanitarian aid to the Georgians. This seemed to make an impression on the Russians, who soon began to withdraw.

Other former Soviet republics, including Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Ukraine, have been dealt a lesson, about both Russia’s capacity to exert its influence and the weakness of Western commitments. America’s inability to stop or deter Russia from attacking its smaller neighbours has been devastatingly obvious in Georgia over the past week.

Yet the people who are likely in the end to pay the biggest price for the attack on Georgia are the Russians. This price will go well beyond any sanctions America or the European Union could impose. Like any foreign aggression, it will lead to further stifling of civil freedoms in Russia. The war in Georgia has demonstrated convincingly who is in charge in Russia. Just as the war in Chechnya helped Mr Putin’s rise to power in 1999, the war in Georgia may now keep him in power for years to come.