Shinzo Abe
Asia’s Democratic Security Diamond
TOKYO – In the summer of 2007, addressing the Central Hall of the Indian Parliament as Japan’s prime minister, I spoke of the “Confluence of the Two Seas” – a phrase that I drew from the title of a book written by the Mughal prince Dara Shikoh in 1655 – to the applause and stomping approval of the assembled lawmakers. In the five years since then, I have become even more strongly convinced that what I said was correct.
CommentsView/Create comment on this paragraphPeace, stability, and freedom of navigation in the Pacific Ocean are inseparable from peace, stability, and freedom of navigation in the Indian Ocean. Developments affecting each are more closely connected than ever. Japan, as one of the oldest sea-faring democracies in Asia, should play a greater role in preserving the common good in both regions.
CommentsView/Create comment on this paragraphYet, increasingly, the South China Sea seems set to become a “Lake Beijing,” which analysts say will be to China what the Sea of Okhotsk was to Soviet Russia: a sea deep enough for the People’s Liberation Army’s navy to base their nuclear-powered attack submarines, capable of launching missiles with nuclear warheads. Soon, the PLA Navy’s newly built aircraft carrier will be a common sight – more than sufficient to scare China’s neighbors.
CommentsView/Create comment on this paragraphThat is why Japan must not yield to the Chinese government’s daily exercises in coercion around the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea. True, only Chinese law-enforcement vessels with light weaponry, not PLA Navy ships, have entered Japan’s contiguous and territorial waters. But this “gentler” touch should fool no one. By making these boats’ presence appear ordinary, China seeks to establish its jurisdiction in the waters surrounding the islands as a fait accompli.
CommentsView/Create comment on this paragraphIf Japan were to yield, the South China Sea would become even more fortified. Freedom of navigation, vital for trading countries such as Japan and South Korea, would be seriously hindered. The naval assets of the United States, in addition to those of Japan, would find it difficult to enter the entire area, though the majority of the two China seas is international water.
CommentsView/Create comment on this paragraphAnxious that such a development could arise, I spoke in India of the need for the Indian and Japanese governments to join together to shoulder more responsibility as guardians of navigational freedom across the Pacific and Indian oceans. I must confess that I failed to anticipate that China’s naval and territorial expansion would advance at the pace that it has since 2007.
CommentsView/Create comment on this paragraphThe ongoing disputes in the East China Sea and the South China Sea mean that Japan’s top foreign-policy priority must be to expand the country’s strategic horizons. Japan is a mature maritime democracy, and its choice of close partners should reflect that fact. I envisage a strategy whereby Australia, India, Japan, and the US state of Hawaii form a diamond to safeguard the maritime commons stretching from the Indian Ocean region to the western Pacific. I am prepared to invest, to the greatest possible extent, Japan’s capabilities in this security diamond.
CommentsView/Create comment on this paragraphMy opponents in the Democratic Party of Japan deserve credit for continuing along the path that I laid out in 2007; that is to say, they have sought to strengthen ties with Australia and India.
CommentsView/Create comment on this paragraphOf the two countries, India – a resident power in East Asia, with the Andaman and Nicobar Islands sitting at the western end of the Strait of Malacca (through which some 40% of world trade passes) – deserves greater emphasis. Japan is now engaged in regular bilateral service-to-service military dialogues with India, and has embarked on official trilateral talks that include the US. And India’s government has shown its political savvy by forging an agreement to provide Japan with rare earth minerals – a vital component in many manufacturing processes – after China chose to use its supplies of rare earths as a diplomatic stick.
CommentsView/Create comment on this paragraphI would also invite Britain and France to stage a comeback in terms of participating in strengthening Asia’s security. The sea-faring democracies in Japan’s part of the world would be much better off with their renewed presence. The United Kingdom still finds value in the Five Power Defense Arrangements with Malaysia, Singapore, Australia, and New Zealand. I want Japan to join this group, gather annually for talks with its members, and participate with them in small-sized military drills. Meanwhile, France’s Pacific Fleet in Tahiti operates on a minimal budget but could well punch above its weight.
CommentsView/Create comment on this paragraphThat said, nothing is more important for Japan than to reinvest in its alliance with the US. In a period of American strategic rebalancing toward the Asia-Pacific region, the US needs Japan as much as Japan needs the US. Immediately after Japan’s earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear disaster in 2011, the US military provided for Japan the largest peacetime humanitarian relief operation ever mounted – powerful evidence that the 60-year bond that the treaty allies have nurtured is real. Deprived of its time-honored ties with America, Japan could play only a reduced regional and global role.
CommentsView/Create comment on this paragraphI, for one, admit that Japan’s relationship with its biggest neighbor, China, is vital to the well-being of many Japanese. Yet, to improve Sino-Japanese relations, Japan must first anchor its ties on the other side of the Pacific; for, at the end of the day, Japan’s diplomacy must always be rooted in democracy, the rule of law, and respect for human rights. These universal values have guided Japan’s postwar development. I firmly believe that, in 2013 and beyond, the Asia-Pacific region’s future prosperity should rest on them as well.
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| 民主亞洲安全之鑽 |
〔編譯林翠儀／綜合報導〕曾在二○○七年提出「自由與繁榮之弧」的日本首相安倍晉三，事隔六年回鍋組閣後，再度提出類似構想「亞洲民主安全之鑽（Asia’s Democratic Security Diamond）」，明確點出中國擴張的威脅，警告東海與南海已快要淪為「北京湖」，希望拉攏印度、澳洲與美國，和日本一起建構「對中鑽石包圍網」。
去年十二月二十六日回鍋擔任首相的安倍，本週上台滿月，日本產經新聞報系的富士晚報，二十八日報導安倍在上任之初，發表在總部設於捷克的報業聯盟（roject Syndicate）期刊上的一篇文章，標題為「亞洲民主安全之鑽」。這篇文章在發表後並未受到日本媒體太多注目，反而是中國媒體曾加以撻伐，增強安倍的「鷹派」形象。
安倍在文中指出，中國政府每天在東海海域不停演習，打算將尖閣諸島（釣魚台列嶼）主權既成事實化。安倍強調，日本絕不會向中國屈服，並指出類似情況也發生在南海海域，南海愈來愈像中國的「北京湖」，就像鄂霍次克海變成前蘇聯的內海一樣，南海也可能成為中國的內海，南海的深度足以成為中國核潛艦的基地，不久後中國海軍的航空母艦也將頻繁出入該海域。
安倍主張，日本除與印度、澳洲與美國夏威夷連結，從印度洋到西太平洋形成保護廣大海洋權益的「鑽石網」外，也應與英國、馬來西亞、新加坡、紐西蘭和大溪地的法國太平洋海軍合作。
比六年前執政主張 更有針對性
相較於六年前安倍提出在歐洲大陸外圍，以協助亞洲新興市場國家實現民主化，形成「自由與繁榮之弧」的構想，「亞洲民主安全之鑽」似乎更具針對性，尤其是在當前日本和中國因釣魚台紛爭而關係緊張之際。在此同時，安倍二十八日在國會發表首次施政演說時也強調，「要盡力、萬全地加強國境、離島的適當振興、管理、戒備」，「堅決維護國民生命、財產和領土、領海、領空」。
日本共同社報導，安倍最快將於下月十九日啟程訪問美國，日美兩國元首可望在二十一到二十二日間舉行高峰會。富士電視台二十八日發表最新電話民調數據，顯示安倍政府的支持率比上月剛成立時上升九．五％，達到六十四．五％，不僅改變日本歷屆政府成立後支持率逐漸開始下滑的慣例，也超越安倍二○○六年首次組閣時的最高支持率。
前防衛相︰中國認真想奪取釣島
另一方面，日本前防衛大臣森本敏卸任後重返學者身分，對中國的分析更為尖銳。森本指出，中國雖在釣魚台問題上顯得沒有章法，但中國是認真想「奪取」釣魚台，而且也將發動慣有的「心理戰、輿論戰及法律戰」三戰達到目的。在此情況下，日本不能挑釁，但也不能接受挑釁，而且一定要避免軍事衝突，因此獲得美國及亞洲各國的輿論支持非常重要。
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