中国要做自己经济的主人?
为摆脱世界金融危机的影响，中国政府决定投资基础设施建设，带动国内需求。时代周报发表的文章认为，这一决定有潜在风险：
"中国以五千亿欧元作赌资，试图快速从出口经济转为国内消费。但问题是，一个拥有13亿人口、习惯节省和大量出口的国家能否一下子变成消费国家。不仅消费者要改变态度，结构也将发生巨大变化：千百万人必须在几个月的时间内从工厂转到建筑工地工作。
这很难做到，更何况去年以来，北京政府试图人为加速进行另一种结构转变。它为南方的工人规定了较高的工资标准，想以此迫使生产汗衫、水桶和浴巾的厂 家把工厂迁往西部。最近破产的玩具生产厂家是这一政策的主要受害者，它们的破产并非美国危机造成。政府想通过这一动议使更多的工业立足西部贫困地区，为相 对富裕的南部省份创造发展高新科技的空间，但现在的出口危机可能将使这一变革半路夭折。结果是南方千百万人失去原有工作，却找不到新工作。"
时代周报文章指出，"北京的战略家们也知道，中国将继续依赖美国，美国将继续依赖中国。如果美国跌倒的时间长，跌得沉重，美国可能把中国一起拉下水。如此看来，美中两国坐在一条船上。"文章接着写道：
"如果奥巴马要为美国制定一项振兴经济的巨大纲领，他就必须在国外举债，使自己依附于世界其它地区。中国振兴经济的一揽子计划虽然可以减少中国的依 赖性，但没有一个重新强大起来的美国，中国也没有力量拯救世界，因为中国国民经济在全球经济中的成份明显低于10%，还太弱小。
尽管有这些共同问题，但是中国不受人左右。中国振兴经济的纲领受到欢呼，它表明中国政府不相信美国的危机会很快结束，也证明中国的经济政策将发生彻 底变化。过去，中国把美国作为带动自己经济发展的热水器。中国借钱给美国，使美国人购买中国产品，这是中国过去许多年经济奇迹的核心。这一做法风险很大， 但赢利很高。
现在疑问增多了。中国的国家基金富足，基金的掌舵者投资美国银行和美国投资公司，他们不得不眼睁睁地看着投入的资金化为乌有。过去几周，北京负责人 在激烈地讨论最佳途径：是继续用贷款支持美国欠债式的资本主义对中国更为有利、还是把金钱直接投资本国更为安全？政治局的决定不利于美国。虽然中国将继续 借钱给美国，否则中国的经济增长就会告终，但是北京发出的政治信号很明确：我们更为相信自己的经济，而不是你们的经济。"
'China is a threat to democracy'
| By Vaudine England BBC News, Hong Kong |
 Lord Patten is outspoken on world affairs |
The threat looming from China is not to do with cheap exports but the "dooming of democracy", former Hong Kong Governor Chris Patten has told the BBC.
Lord Patten said China promoted the idea that one could get rich without needing democracy - and such an idea posed a threat to the West.
He said regional bodies such as Asean should be strengthened so they could do more to tackle regional problems.
Lord Patten was mobbed by fans while in Hong Kong to promote his latest book.
The book, What's Next? Surviving the Twenty-first Century, tries to assess where the challenges of the future will come from.
It discusses climate change, trafficking of people, guns and drugs and other aspects of the "dark side of globalisation".
Most provocative in Asia will be his views on Burma, China and democracy, some of which have sparked anger among Asian governments in the past.
Despite interest in his book, the territory's former governor remains a divisive figure.
Asia 'hobbled'
Looking at Asian economics and politics, Lord Patten said much needed to be done to strengthen regional infrastructure, as groups such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) were far too weak.
 |  China is I think the first example of a country which has done astonishingly well in this international system but challenges its basic foundations  Chris Patten, diplomat author  |
He said he favoured Asean becoming a customs union, as a first step towards an EU-type integration, and as a challenge to the region's "protectionist instincts" and different degrees of economic development in Asean.
"And because, politically, Asean is hobbled by the membership of Burma and by its inability to address collectively the challenge of a state which abuses the human rights of its citizens so strongly," said Lord Patten.
In his book he discusses the UN doctrine of "responsibility to protect" - which could justify intervention by the international community in a state where gross abuses are taking place against the population.
But he said, "in cases like Zimbabwe, in cases like Burma, unless the neighbours are prepared to get involved, it's extremely difficult for the international community to make a difference on the ground.
"If Burma's neighbours, not only Asean but China and India, had been prepared to take a tougher line during the humanitarian crisis or when the monks were being shot, then it would have been possible for the international community to change events," said Lord Patten.
Systemic challenge
Asia poses a real challenge where the foundations of recent rapid growth in wealth and freedoms are not acknowledged, he said.
"East Asia in particular, South Asia too, has done extremely well out of a system which was largely created under American leadership, of freer markets, freer trade, leading to freer politics as well.
 Student leader Wang Dan demonstrated for democracy in 1989 |
"China is I think the first example of a country which has done astonishingly well in this international system, but challenges its basic foundations.
"And its challenge is welcomed by autocracies which are a lot less successful, for example, dictatorships in Africa," he said.
But he said he did not think the Chinese model of "authoritarian, illiberal, proto-capitalism" would win out, because it did not have the "safety valves" provided by democracies when times were tough.
Asked if China was becoming a larger player in international affairs, he noted China's contribution to peace-keeping forces around the world.
"What they're reluctant to do I think is to accept a more interventionist role for the UN and that has particularly affected one or two countries where they've been developing substantial commercial interests."
But discussing China's role in the conflict in the Sudanese region of Darfur, he said that while China had "given some cover" to Sudan's government in the UN, it would not be "remotely fair" to blame China for the conflict.
Advice for Obama
As a large economic power, China had a large interest in stability. "Failed and failing states are bad for business if you're a big economic player," he said.
Lord Patten said he hoped US President-elect Barack Obama would provide the global leadership that had been lacking.
But he offered a word of caution for Mr Obama.
"On the back of this financial crisis the last thing we want is a period of trade protectionism.
"So I hope that [Mr Obama's] first message to Asia is that that is something he is going to resist," Lord Patten said.
《衛報》報道，美國國會一個委員會警告說，中國正積極發展本身的電腦網絡戰力量，現在已經有能力延遲或干擾美軍在全世界的部署，有能力在任何衝突中佔據上風。 報道說，這個委員會的報告揭露了來自中國對美國政府、防衛機構及商業的攻擊的事例在驚人地增長。 委員會的報告說，中國現在有意圖和能力在世界任何地方、任何時間發動電腦網絡攻擊。 《衛報》援引該報告說，在2007年，美國大約五百萬台電腦在43880起惡意活動事件中成為目標。 報告又警告，中國發動電腦網絡攻擊的能力"精密得美國可能無法抵抗甚至探測得到"。 報告說，由於美國從聯邦政府、軍方到水質處理、社會保障和電力網等一大部分活動都對互聯網有很大依賴，所以"對這些與互聯網有聯繫的網絡成功的攻擊，將可以讓美國癱瘓"。
News - Asia-Pacific - Thailand and Cambodia vow peace .
Last updated: 24 Oct 2008
Thailand and Cambodia pledge to work for a peaceful resolution of their deadly border dispute in talks in Beijing..
news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/7688451.stm
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