2013年4月1日 星期一

亞洲紀事/Korean Tensions Mount/ Can India become a great power?

South Korea Vows Military Reply if North Provokes It

SEOUL — President Park Geun-hye’s order to her generals are the latest turn in a war of words that is testing the resolve of both North and South Korea.
Chinese Suspend Editor Who Questioned North Korea Alliance

South Korea vows retaliation against North if provoked

South Korea's president has said any "provocation" from the North will unleash an immediate retaliation from Seoul. The tough words came in response to North Korea's recent threat of launching a war.

North Korea

Pyongyang continues to ratchet up tensions

Vociferous Pyongyang has issued a number of threats to the US and South Korea of late. But Kim Jong Un must realize the only possible outcome of a conflict would be the annihilation of his regime.

Graft Forces Indonesian Leader to Take Party Helm

JAKARTA — After an emergency session of congress, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono reluctantly agreed to become chairman of his governing Democratic Party.


  • 2013年04月01日 09:37 発信地:台北/台湾
  • 【4月1日 AFP】ドイツと台湾の科学者らを乗せた海洋調査船が31日、巨大な新エネルギー源となる可能性を秘めた「メタンハイドレート」の探索のため、台湾南西部沿岸沖に向けて出航した。

「燃える氷」として知られるメタンハイドレートは、メタンガスが非常に高い密度で氷に閉じ込められた化石燃料で、大陸棚の海底地下や北極の永久凍土層で発 見されている。日本政府は先月、領海の海底にあるメタンハイドレートからガスの抽出に成功したと発表した。政府によると、これは世界初の快挙で、資源不足 に悩む日本にとって大きな突破口になるという。


 台湾・行政院国家科学委員会(National Science CouncilNSC)のウェイン・ワン(Wayne Wang) 氏はAFPの取材に対し「今回初めて、メタンハイドレートの物理的な調査を実行できるかもしれない」と述べた。これまでの調査で、この海域の埋蔵量は台湾 島内消費の最大50年分に相当する可能性があることが明らかになっている。台湾は、主に中東・アフリカからの高価な石油の輸入に大きく依存している。 (c)AFP

Patent’s Defeat in India Is Key Victory for Generic Drugs

Chinese citizen sentenced in military data-theft case
Washington Post
On Monday, Sixing Liu, a Chinese citizen who worked at L-3's space and navigation division, was sentenced in federal court here to five years and 10 months for taking thousands of files about the device, called a disk resonator gyroscope, and other ...
See all stories on this topic »
China Convicts and Sentences 20 Accused of Militant Separatism in Restive ...
New York Times
HONG KONG — Two courts in China's far northwestern Xinjiang region have convicted and sentenced 20 people accused of militant separatism in this area where members of the Uighur ethnic minority bridle at Chinese rule and restrictions on their Islamic ...
See all stories on this topic »
China Manufacturing Expands at Faster Pace, PMIs Show
China's manufacturing expanded at a faster pace last month, indicating a recovery in the world's second-largest economy is sustaining momentum. The Purchasing Managers' Index (SHCOMP) was 50.9, the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation ...
See all stories on this topic »

Chinese military denies damaging Vietnamese fishing boat in South China Sea ...
Washington Post
BEIJING — After a week of acrimonious accusations between China and Vietnam, the Chinese military has admitted that one of its ships fired at a Vietnamese fishing boat, although it insisted that only flares were shot and that Vietnam's claims of fire ...
See all stories on this topic »
China: Landslide buries 83 in Tibet gold mine area
The miners worked for a subsidiary of the China National Gold Group Corp., a state-owned enterprise and the country's largest gold producer. A woman who answered the call at its Beijing headquarters Saturday said she could not provide any information.
See all stories on this topic »
Chinese navy makes waves in South China Sea
BEIJING – The appearance of a Chinese navy flotilla at an island chain 1,120 miles from its home shores is a clear sign that the new Communist regime is moving to enforce its claims to the entire South China Sea, experts said Wednesday. James Shoal is ...
See all stories on this topic »
Chris Brown's 'Fine China' Video: Good Guy Gone 'Bad'
Instead, the often-controversial pop icon dug into the old-school crates, absorbing vibes from Prince, Sam Cooke, Phil Collins and his #1 muse, Michael Jackson, when coming up with the concept for his new single "Fine China." On Monday (April 1 ...
See all stories on this topic »
Foreign firms in China looking for action from new leadership amid tougher ...
Washington Post
BEIJING — Foreign companies in China say they want the country's new leadership to act on pledges to reduce bureaucracy and remove investment barriers as the business climate gets tougher, the American Chamber of Commerce in China said Friday.
See all stories on this topic »

Washington Post
Questions in China on how H7N9 bird flu killed 2; but doctors don't detect ...
Washington Post
Two men in Shanghai became the first known human fatalities from the H7N9 bird flu virus after contracting it in February. A woman in the eastern city of Chuzhou remains in serious condition, China's National Health and Family Planning Commission said.
See all stories on this topic »


2013-03-29 Web only 作者:經濟學人

印 度應該開始形塑自身和所在區域的命運,必須更嚴肅地看待戰略,建立強權該有外交部門。印度需要更專業的國防部,以及能與政府領袖攜手合作的國防部會成員, 並允許私人和外國企業加入其國防產業。印度需要資金充足的海軍,讓印度海軍可以保障印度洋航線的安全,同時展現印度承擔強權責任的決心。
最重要的是,印度必須放棄過時的不聯盟哲學;印度自05年與美國簽署核能協定之後,已開始靠向西方、與西方合作處理區域問題,但態度都十分低調。印度應該更 明確直率,加入西方國家的安全聯盟;這或許不符印度的短期利益,因為那可能會激怒中國,但強權就應該將眼光放遠。印度當然可以成為強權,真正的問題在於, 印度想不想成為強權。(黃維德譯)
©The Economist Newspaper Limited 2013

Can India become a great power?
Mar 30th 2013 |From the print edition
India's lack of a strategic culture hobbles its ambition to be a force in the world.
NOBODY doubts that China has joined the ranks of the great powers: the idea of a G2 with America is mooted, albeit prematurely. India is often spoken of in the same breath as China because of its billion-plus population, economic promise, value as a trading partner and growing military capabilities. All five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council support—however grudgingly—India's claim to join them. But whereas China's rise is a given, India is still widely seen as a nearly-power that cannot quite get its act together.
That is a pity, for as a great power, India would have much to offer. Although poorer and less economically dynamic than China, India has soft power in abundance. It is committed to democratic institutions, the rule of law and human rights. As a victim of jihadist violence, it is in the front rank of the fight against terrorism. It has a huge and talented diaspora. It may not want to be co-opted by the West but it shares many Western values. It is confident and culturally rich. If it had a permanent Security Council seat (which it has earned by being one of the most consistent contributors to UN peacekeeping operations) it would not instinctively excuse and defend brutal regimes. Unlike China and Russia, it has few skeletons in its cupboard. With its enormous coastline and respected navy (rated by its American counterpart, with which it often holds exercises, as up to NATO standard) India is well-placed to provide security in a critical part of the global commons.
The modest power
Yet India's huge potential to be a force for stability and an upholder of the rules-based international system is far from being realised. One big reason is that the country lacks the culture to pursue an active security policy. Despite a rapidly rising defence budget, forecast to be the world's fourth-largest by 2020, India's politicians and bureaucrats show little interest in grand strategy (see article). The foreign service is ridiculously feeble—India's 1.2 billion people are represented by about the same number of diplomats as Singapore's 5m. The leadership of the armed forces and the political-bureaucratic establishment operate in different worlds. The defence ministry is chronically short of military expertise.
These weaknesses partly reflect a pragmatic desire to make economic development at home the priority. India has also wisely kept generals out of politics (a lesson ignored elsewhere in Asia, not least by Pakistan, with usually parlous results). But Nehruvian ideology also plays a role. At home, India mercifully gave up Fabian economics in the 1990s (and reaped the rewards). But diplomatically, 66 years after the British left, it still clings to the post-independence creeds of semi-pacifism and "non-alignment": the West is not to be trusted.
India's tradition of strategic restraint has in some ways served the country well. Having little to show for several limited wars with Pakistan and one with China, India tends to respond to provocations with caution. It has long-running territorial disputes with both its big neighbours, but it usually tries not to inflame them (although it censors any maps which accurately depict where the border lies, something its press shamefully tolerates). India does not go looking for trouble, and that has generally been to its advantage.
Indispensable India
But the lack of a strategic culture comes at a cost. Pakistan is dangerous and unstable, bristling with nuclear weapons, torn apart by jihadist violence and vulnerable to an army command threatened by radical junior officers. Yet India does not think coherently about how to cope. The government hopes that increased trade will improve relations, even as the army plans for a blitzkrieg-style attack across the border. It needs to work harder at healing the running sore of Kashmir and supporting Pakistan's civilian government. Right now, for instance, Pakistan is going through what should be its first transition from one elected civilian government to the next. India's prime minister, Manmohan Singh, should support this process by arranging to visit the country's next leader.
China, which is increasingly willing and able to project military power, including in the Indian Ocean, poses a threat of a different kind. Nobody can be sure how China will use its military and economic clout to further its own interests and, perhaps, put India's at risk. But India, like China's other near neighbours, has every reason to be nervous. The country is particularly vulnerable to any interruption in energy supplies (India has 17% of the world's population but just 0.8% of its known oil and gas reserves).
India should start to shape its own destiny and the fate of its region. It needs to take strategy more seriously and build a foreign service that is fitting for a great power—one that is at least three times bigger. It needs a more professional defence ministry and a unified defence staff that can work with the country's political leadership. It needs to let private and foreign firms into its moribund state-run defence industry. And it needs a well-funded navy that can become both a provider of maritime security along some of the world's busiest sea-lanes and an expression of India's willingness to shoulder the responsibilities of a great power.
Most of all, though, India needs to give up its outdated philosophy of non-alignment. Since the nuclear deal with America in 2005, it has shifted towards the west—it tends to vote America's way in the UN, it has cut its purchases of Iranian oil, it collaborates with NATO in Afghanistan and co-ordinates with the West in dealing with regional problems such as repression in Sri Lanka and transition in Myanmar—but has done so surreptitiously. Making its shift more explicit, by signing up with Western-backed security alliances, would be good for the region, and the world. It would promote democracy in Asia and help bind China into international norms. That might not be in India's short-term interest, for it would risk antagonising China. But looking beyond short-term self-interest is the kind of thing a great power does.
That India can become a great power is not in doubt. The real question is whether it wants to.
From the print edition: Leaders
©The Economist Newspaper Limited 2013