2008年9月8日 星期一

香港立法會選舉 Hong Kong democrats keep veto

Hong Kong democrats keep veto

Pro-democracy candidate Emily Lau of The Frontier Party celebrates

Hong Kong's pro-democracy camp has won more than a third of the seats in legislative elections, and so retains a key veto over future bills.

The pro-democracy opposition won 23 out of the 30 elected seats in the Legislative Council.

The other 30 seats in the council are not directly elected, but allocated to special interest groups.

The Pro-Beijing camp had expected to make gains at the polls due to a surge of patriotism after the Olympics.

Even some of the candidates on the pro-democracy side had been predicting the worst.

Some were even in tears before the results came in, expecting to lose.

Tougher battle

Hong Kong's political landscape is roughly divided along pro-Beijing and pro-democracy lines.

Since the territory returned from British to Chinese rule in 1997, the pro-democracy parties have fared consistently well in the polls.

But there were fears that, this time, the situation would be different.

Independent candidate Regina Ip with her supporters
Independent candidate Regina Ip was successful in her bid for a seat
Analysts had believed that pro-government parties would make significant gains after the surge in Chinese patriotism sparked by the Beijing Olympics and the Sichuan earthquake.

China had also promised the region some form of universal suffrage by 2017, blunting the democratic camp's campaign.

There were also concerns that issues such as wages, inflation and education may eclipse the desire for democratic reform.

But in the event, the result was not as bad as the democratic camp had expected.

It won 23 seats, compared to the 26 it had previously, but held on to its crucial power of veto - giving it the ability to throw out controversial government plans.

"Hong Kong people still have aspiration for full democracy," said Alan Leong, a member of the opposition Civic Party, who was re-elected. "Those in power can't afford to ignore it".

Other leading pro-democracy figures such as Emily Lau, Audrey Eu and Leung Kwok-hung, also known as Longhair, also fought off stiff competition to keep their seat.

But the pro-China Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB), also did well, scoring huge majorities in some districts.

So too did the independent candidate Regina Ip, who won her seat.

The pro-business Liberal Party saw its leader and deputy leader deposed in voting that leaves the party in disarray.

Hong Kong is ultimately controlled by Beijing, but China mostly leaves the territory to govern itself, designating it a Special Administrative Region.

Under this "one country, two systems" model, Hong Kong citizens enjoy far more rights and freedoms than their mainland neighbours.



2008年09月08日 格林尼治標準時間11:22北京時間 19:22發表


香港立法會選舉民主派表現勝預期
香港公民黨黨魁余若薇(中)與競選伙伴歡呼(8/9/2008)
余若薇(中)等多位泛民主派主要人物順利連任

香港第四屆立法會選舉塵埃落定,親北京的民建聯維持第一大黨地位,但泛民主派的表現優於選前預期和票站調查結果。

點票工作在星期一(9月8日)早上全部完成,泛民主派各政黨在地區直選和功能組別共取得23席,雖然比上屆少了3席,但仍優於目標力保的21席。

前線召集人劉慧卿、民主黨主席何俊仁、公民黨黨魁余若薇,還有人稱“長毛”的社會民主連線成員梁國雄都順利連任。

建制派中,親北京的民建聯取得10席,成為立法會第一大黨﹔工聯會也取得4席。

除了民建聯主席譚耀宗獲得連任外,曾在去年年底舉行補選時敗於前政務司司長陳方安生的前保安局局長葉劉淑儀這次也在地方直選中獲勝。

論壇討論

同屬建制派,主要代表商界和專業人士利益的自由黨則遭遇慘敗,在地方直選中全軍覆沒,功能組別方面雖然能取得7席,但也丟失了旅遊界的議席。

連任失敗的自由黨主席田北俊隨即宣佈辭任黨主席,同樣落敗的副主席周梁淑怡也決定辭去黨職,同時向行政長官曾蔭權辭任行政會議成員。

投票率偏低

據港府公布,星期天(7日)的選舉共有約152萬人投票,投票率為45%,比上屆選舉下挫10個百分點。

香港立法會選舉開始點票(7/9/2008)

此前觀察家們就已經預測,在社會民怨相對改善的氛圍下,選民的投票意欲降低,投票率不會達到2004年的56%。

香港中文大學亞太研究所副所墿王家英教授接受BBC中文網採訪時說,民怨減少是意料中事,但是投票率減少也同時是因為泛民主派沒能提出處於道德高地的政治議題作為賣點。

他說,本屆選舉各陣營出現內鬥情況,既不能動員選民投票,甚或讓一些人感到疲倦,繼而失去了投票意欲。

王家英認為,泛民主派必須對投票率偏低作出反思,否則以後的選情不容樂觀。

民調差距

香港民建聯成員劉江華(左三)團隊得知當選後舉手致謝(8/9/2008)
親北京的民建聯取得了香港立法會第一大黨地位

當前的選舉結果與選前預測以至於投票結束後公布的票站民意調查都有一定的差距。

此前政治學者普遍預測是,泛民主派在失去普選等政治議題作為宣傳重點下將較為不利,親政府、親北京的建制派則會得益於奧運效應等造成的愛國民族情緒,還有中國國內近年在經濟上對香港的優惠政策等。

王家英分析說,民族情緒效應並非這次親北京政黨得票率高的最大原因,而是因為他們注重地方工作。這是自由黨和泛民主派的公民黨所欠缺的。

另一方面,選前由於傳出一些票站調查遭建制派操控作為臨場調整拉票策略的消息,調查回應率整體偏低,使得調查結果與最終選舉結果出現較大差異。

獲得多家電視台採用的票站調查負責人,香港大學民意研究計劃主任鍾庭耀說,這次選舉的票站調查響應率只有約50%,遠低於此前兩屆選舉,可能造成數據出現“系統性偏差”。他還指出,近年的票站調查一直受到不專業干預,使得響應率下降。

第四屆立法會60名議員的任期為期4年,將在2012年屆滿。


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