2012年7月26日 星期四

韓國社會改革之巨波/ 獨尊經濟成長, 富強假面? 緬甸僧侶示威/中國與印度的國際移民




韓國 富強假面下的痛苦國度


2012-07 天下雜誌 502期 作者:陶允芳



近半人民自認屬於「社會底層」,卻有六八%的有錢人自認「還不夠富」;青年自殺率四四.六%,高居OECD各國之冠;去年至今,已有二十家金融機構倒閉。這些灰暗的數字,來自好勝韓國。
韓國,這個施振榮口中「全世界的敵人」,近幾年已從小龍蛻變成小巨人。成功值得稱道借鏡,但巨人背後的陰影,也藏著許多值得省思警惕之處。
南韓自九七年亞洲金融風暴重生的速度,令全球驚豔。二○一一年,韓國已經成為世界第九個貿易額超過一兆美元的國家;今年則成為全球第七個「二○、五○」(人均GDP兩萬美元、人口五千萬)俱樂部會員。
這些傲人成就,除了政府全力扶植出口產業,多少也得利於它近年擴張經貿領土的驍戰。
自去年七月韓歐FTA生效之後,今年三月韓美FTA也正式生效。緊接著又忙著開啟與中日進行三邊FTA的談判,設法讓「韓國製」這塊招牌,暢行無阻。
然而,獨尊經濟成長的路線,在這次總統大選選戰中,受到強烈抨擊,也面臨修正壓力。
人民對只圖利財團的FTA帶來的經濟效益「無感」,物價、學費高漲、貧富差距擴大,年輕人就業困難等,這些被認為是李明博「失政」的問題,讓人看到韓國亮麗背後的陰影。

日前,韓國央行近三年半來首度降息。儘管央行說法是「預防性措施」,但事實上,韓國經濟面臨出口成長趨緩、內需不振的內外交迫壓力,已經到了必須打強心針的地步。
主要市場景氣疲軟,出口也跟著亮紅燈,內需低迷的情況就更明顯。百貨業業績增幅從去年第一季的一一.三%,銳減為今年首季的○.三%。
追究起來,李明博上任之初,以韓元貶值維持出口優勢,放寬炒房管制,以拉抬經濟成長的雙引擎政策,為今日的債台高築、經濟危機埋下伏筆。
表面上看來,韓國是進入富國行列。實際卻是國家、企業、個人統統一身債。政府負債佔GDP三四%,全世界排第十一。
家庭負債更是十年增一倍,從○二年底的四六五兆韓元,增至三月底的九一○兆,佔GDP比率已經高達八一%,為全球第五高。
近兩年房市低迷,民眾資產貶值,「窮得只剩房子」而付不起房貸的人,開始拋售房產還債。讓不景氣的房市,更加陷入量滾價的惡性循環。
側重房貸放款的金融機構,也爆發壞帳危機,導致去年十六家儲蓄銀行(類似信用合作社)倒閉。今年五月又有包括所羅門、未來等四家儲蓄銀行,因財務惡化(自有資本比例低於一%)被勒令停業。有的行長因不當融資畏罪自殺,也有的想偷渡潛逃被逮回。
幸福感殿後,人民不快樂


貧富差距嚴重,是韓國另一大問題。韓國十億韓元(約新台幣二四五○萬元)富豪,三年來每年增加二○%。
但韓國統計廳的《二○一一年社會普查》報告則顯示,認為自己是社會底層的人,從八八年首次調查時的三六.九%,升高到四五%。
對於未來,幾乎全國人民都悲觀以待。九三%的人認為,十年後收入差距會更擴大。
看似富了的國家,人民卻普遍自認貧窮,嚴重的不均和負債,讓人民不快樂,對未來沒有希望。

在OECD的調查中,韓國國民的幸福指數,在三十四國中排名倒數第三,自殺率全球第一。
顯然,韓國依賴大財團全球化佈局的經濟成長,人民並沒有真正受惠。

Diasporas

Mapping migration

Nov 17th 2011, 14:54 by The Economist online
Where are the world's biggest Chinese and Indian immigrant communities?
MORE Chinese people live outside mainland China than French people live in France, with some to be found in almost every country. Some 22m ethnic Indians are scattered across every continent. Diasporas have been a part of the world for millennia. But today their size (if migrants were a nation, they would be the world’s fifth-largest) and the ease of staying in touch with those at home are making them matter much more. No other social networks offer the same global reachand shrewd firms are taking notice. Our map highlights the world's top 20 destinations for Chinese and Indian migrants.




Seoul mayor Park Won-soon shakes up S Korean politics


New Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon waves to people as he comes to work at Seoul City Hall on 27 October 2011 Park Won-soon represents a new kind of politics in South Korea

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South Korea's political parties are looking distinctly nervous these days.
The governing conservative Grand National Party (GNP) has said it wants to re-invent itself as a party of "digital nomads" to better listen to the people.
Its main opposition, the Democratic Party (DP), is talking about a "wave of social change" and looking at forming a wider alliance to strengthen its position.
And the reason for all this nervousness? A bespectacled civic activist called Park Won-soon. Or, as he is now known: the mayor of Seoul.
Mr Park won the election for mayor last month, without any previous experience as a politician, and without joining any of South Korea's political parties.
A generation after democracy emerged here, his win is being described by analysts as a "sea change" in South Korean politics.
The elevation of an independent candidate to the second-most powerful job in the country would be a wake-up call at the best of times, but this has come just as South Korea is gearing up for national parliamentary and presidential elections next year.
And if the reality of an independent mayor is a shock, the dimly-glimpsed prospect of an independent president is sending shivers through the main parties.
Added to which, the newly-elected Mr Park is not a man to keep his criticism of the political establishment to himself.
At a briefing for journalists this month, he spoke frankly about South Korea's battle with its US Free Trade Agreement, and about the best approach to take with North Korea.
He also said his conservative mayoral predecessors - one of whom is now South Korea's president - had used their positions to climb the political career ladder and "did not listen" to the people.
The idea that politicians here have stopped listening is a common one. And it is not only directed at the governing GNP.
Mr Park beat the GNP candidate on election day itself, but he also beat the opposition party candidates in a primary race beforehand - a decision in which voters and opinion polls played a strong role.
'New politics'

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They yearn for the perfect outsider, but are often disappointed once he or she is in power - Mr Park will fall victim to this himself eventually”
Mike Breen South Korea analyst
Woo Jung-yeop, a research fellow with South Korea's Asan Institute for Policy Studies, says that while the mayoral election may have frightened the GNP, it has also has posed a real problem for the opposition - how to benefit from the surge in voter support for left-wing outsiders.
"The Democratic Party wants to be centre-left, but the others want clearer ideology in economics and relations with North Korea. It will be very interesting to see how the DP will react to that pressure," he says.
Some trace this disillusionment to the kind of welfare-focused policies being highlighted by Park Won-soon and his allies in civic activism.
The gap between rich and poor is widening in South Korea, say analysts, and politicians sometimes appear torn between the big conglomerates who provide the backbone of the economy and the voters - many of whom feel they are losing out on the returns.
But others believe the problem is much wider.
A survey carried out by some of South Korea's main media outlets the day after Mr Park's win found a third of those polled said they believed South Koreans wanted "a new kind of politics" entirely.
Seoul-based commentator Tom Coyner, writing in the JoongAng Daily newspaper, concluded "the populist desire for change is undeniable".
People are "sick and tired of traditional politics", he said, both the conservatives and the progressives.
'Obama moment'?
Ahn Cheol-soo leaves after a meeting with Park Won-soon at Park's office in Seoul on 24 October 2011 Ahn Cheol-soo also captured the public imagination in the run-up to the mayoral campaign
At least, those under 50 seem to feel that way. Opinion polls suggest Park Won-soon was carried to the mayor's office on a wave of support from younger South Koreans.
His campaign funding was made up largely of small donations made online, and exit polls point to those in their 20s and 30s as his biggest supporters.
And he is not the only newcomer to have grabbed the political spotlight. One of his key supporters during the race was Ahn Cheol-soo, a professor and IT businessman who captured the public imagination in the run-up to the campaign - but who refused, in the end, to run himself.
Which means he is, theoretically at least, available for the presidential race next year. And that is leaving aside the question of who else might emerge from outside the political establishment between now and the start of campaign season.
So will 2012 be South Korea's "Obama moment" - an election where young people, social media and a desire for change carry someone different to the top job?
Mike Breen, a resident and analyst of South Korea for over 20 years, says this political disillusionment is not as new as it appears - and runs a lot deeper.
"It tells you something about the [South] Korean voting public that this is a country where people don't like their leaders; they don't like their politicians," he said.
"They yearn for the perfect outsider, but are often disappointed once he or she is in power. Mr Park will fall victim to this himself eventually."
Political legacy
The problem, Mike Breen believes, is that Korea's democratic leaders have a tough act to follow, in the shape of South Korea's autocratic second president, Park Chung-hee.
"Park Chung-hee is still the model with which leaders are compared. He was a dictator, who could do virtually what he wanted; he had a poor country to start with - which he built up and gave everyone jobs; and he had 18 years in which to do it."
By comparison, politicians now have a harder time, he says.
"Now South Korea is already a democracy, it's already developed, and you have only five years as president, with your hands tied behind your back - how do you replicate what Park Chung-hee achieved?"
That is as big a dilemma for independents as it is for party politicians.
But here is another: the voting public also appear rather divided on the issue of activists entering the political scene.
Park Won-soon may have won the race for mayor, says Dr Woo Jung-yeop, "and Ahn Cheol-soo may still be polling a front-runner for president, but according to a recent survey, 50% of [South] Koreans believe activists should remain as 'referees' of the political scene, not become players".
This is one small glimmer of hope as South Korea's political veterans prepare for the starting whistle.



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緬甸僧侶又上街示威仰光2007年抗議運動遭血腥鎮壓以來,緬甸國內又有僧侶上街遊行,要求當局釋放政治犯。週二(11月15日),5名僧侶在距海港城市仰光以北500公里的曼德勒市打開寫著"給政治犯以自由"、"我們要自由"等口號的橫幅。據目擊者稱,至少有100人圍觀,而警方沒有乾預。這些僧侶遊行後返回寺院。 2007年秋,仰光發生有數千僧侶參加的反政府遊行示威。示威運動遭到當局血腥鎮壓,至少有100人喪生。人權組織稱,緬甸國內目前仍有1600多名在押政治犯。今年春季取代了軍政府的新文職政府上月釋放了大約240名政治犯。世界上許多國家表示,願意同緬甸恢復關係,前提是,該國必須釋放所有政治犯。緬甸現政府致力於成為2014年東南亞國家聯盟峰會的東道主。

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