媒體看中國 | 2011.10.10
"中國之星在非洲落下"
中國在非洲採取"不干涉內政"的所謂中立政策，迅速擴展經濟合作，成為非洲最大的貿易夥伴，然而這個政策的風險現在顯露出來，隨著政權的更替，中國與舊的掌權者的過分友好關係可能導致它失去生意。
《每日鏡報》（10月7日）寫道："最近10年，沒有任何發展像大量的中國人到來那樣如此強烈地影響了非洲。在這塊大陸的許多國家，無法想像市容中不再有中國的公司和商人。從2001年起，中國與非洲的貿易額增加了10倍，達到700億歐元，這個國家從而成為非洲的最大貿易夥伴，甚至超過美國和歐洲，所以後者正為其原材料供應而憂心忡忡。
"然而，中國在這個擴張過程中遭受了一次嚴重的挫折。它在非洲的不干涉政策的風險第一次顯露出來，這些風險在於，中國常常給予那些公然蔑視人權的非洲政權數十億貸款，作為獲得原材料的回報。"
該報接著寫道："中國政府以這種臆想的中立，想要防止自己的公司在非洲的項目陷入與當地政治的矛盾。至於這種做法本身的內在問題，中國正在利比亞經歷。今年初還有4萬中國人在那里工作，自從被北京支持到最後的卡扎菲政權和現在起主導作用的反叛力量之間的鬥爭爆發以來，其數字已經萎縮到幾千人。對中國來說，越來越迫切的問題是，在政權更替之後（在其它國家也有這個可能），它是否會被指控與舊的統治者關係過於友好，從而得面臨失去生意。
"這種討論由於贊比亞最近的大選獲得新的炸藥。前工會領袖薩塔（Michael Sata）、非洲聲音最大的中國批評者之一，出人意料地明顯獲勝。這位74歲的人取代了經濟自由主義的元首班達（Rupiah Banda），班達的政黨'多黨民主運動'（MMD）討好中國多年。 自世紀之交以來，中國和這個非洲南部的產銅國之間的貿易額從1億美元躍升到30億美元。在這個過程中，贊比亞與安哥拉、剛果和蘇丹一道成為中國人在黑非洲的重點國家。"
薩塔不再給中國優待
該報認為，"被觀察家一致描繪為'反复無常'的薩塔，其明顯的勝利讓中國大為不安。這位民粹主義者樂於表現為'窮人的律師'，在過去一再威脅要將中國人趕出去，因為中國人蔑視贊比亞勞動法，並且從中國僱用勞動力而不是就地採用。最近幾年，事實上在該國北方的銅礦一再發生反對中國經營的騷亂，一方面是由於工資低，另一方面由於安全水準低以及工人待遇差。
"薩塔在競選中多次譴責政府將贊比亞出賣給中國，宣布要予以無情的鬥爭。儘管這位民粹主義者最後明顯地緩和了語氣，他在政府的第一份聲明中還是堅持中國不得繼續指望獲得優待。……"
《時代周報》（10月7日）在有關剛果大選的報導中認為："中國在外交政策上以不干涉其它國家內政的原則為依據，事實上北京的建築工程師們在有力地干涉剛果的內政：他們或許是想在11月28日爭取連任的卡比拉（Joseph Kabila）總統最有效的助選者。"
摘編：林泉
責編: 樂然
(以上內容摘自或摘譯自其它媒體，不代表德國之聲觀點)
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China Props Up Bank Shares
Shorting China
Panda bears
Betting against China is in vogue
Oct 8th 2011 | HONG KONG | from the print edition
Commoner than you’d think ONE year ago bears on China were a rare species. People scoffed at Jim Chanos, a well-known short-seller, who predicted that China would end up “like Dubai times 1,000, or worse”. Nor did they heed Hugh Hendry, the eccentric boss of Eclectica Asset Management, who posted a homemade video of himself wandering Chinese streets and gawking at abandoned skyscrapers on YouTube.
The view that China is heading for a sharp slowdown has now caught on. Few go so far as to predict an Emirate-style crash, but talk of a “hard landing” is rife. Concerns abound that a sharp Western slowdown could cripple demand for Chinese exports, that shadow lending and local-government debt are out of control and that property prices are bound for a correction. Fraud allegations against several Chinese firms have made investors jittery, too.
So pervasive is the gloom that one Chinese hedge-fund manager who isn’t “that bearish on China” describes his position as “contrarian”. Société Générale recently released a report saying China is the “world’s most crowded short”. In Hong Kong, where many bears express their views on China because it is not possible to short mainland stocks, long positions still outnumber shorts by six to one. But that’s down from 11 to one in January, according to Data Explorers, a research firm.
Pessimists have focused on industries that would be hardest hit by government tightening or a sustained slowdown, which means property and construction companies in particular. Anhui Conch Cement, China’s largest cement manufacturer, is the most commonly shorted Chinese company listed in Hong Kong. Commodities such as copper have also been battered recently, as have financial stocks. Some investors are more creative. Mark Hart of Corriente Advisors, a hedge fund, has bought put options on the yuan, betting that the value of the currency will decline. Mr Hendry has purchased credit-default swaps on Japanese firms that are heavy exporters to China.
Pessimism has proved profitable recently. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index has dropped by more than 29% so far this year, more than the French and Spanish stockmarkets. Mr Hendry’s “short China” fund was reportedly up by nearly 40% in the year to August. Messrs Chanos, Hart and Hendry had positions in place for a while before there were any signs of China wobbling, however. Without a sustained fall in asset prices, it is unclear whether they will make back much more than they spent.
An executive at a large hedge fund that went “net short” on China in the spring says that the trade is riskier now that equity prices have declined so much. “If you’re shorting shares at seven to eight times earnings, it’s a bold bet,” he says. Investors face the additional risk of being caught in a “short squeeze”, when the price of a stock is pushed up and short-sellers have to cover their positions. Regulators could also intrude: there are calls for a ban on shorting in Hong Kong. Needless to say, that hasn’t stopped the bears from warning that China has further to fall. Mr Chanos, who has never been to China, is rumoured to have a trip planned this month to Hong Kong. He will get a more admiring reception now than he would have 12 months ago.
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