醫改有望給投資者帶來滋補良藥
08年03月06日12:05過
去的兩年里﹐中國製藥行業曝光了包括監管官員貪污腐敗案在內的數起醜聞﹐它們加劇了由問題藥品引發的危機。如今﹐隨著中國政府醫療改革方案的制定接近尾聲﹐人們有望迎來黎明的曙光──至少對投資者來說如此。分析人士稱﹐現在可能是投資一些中國醫療保健公司的良機﹐特別是那些定位於農村市場的公司。
目前還不清楚醫療改革方案何時會最終敲定﹐但預計這將成為週三開幕的第十一屆全國人民代表大會第一次會議的議題之一。
除了與腐敗做鬥爭之外﹐醫療費用也是政府面臨的一個主要問題。據中國衛生部的數據顯示﹐人均自費醫療支出佔總醫療支出的比例從1978年的20%上升到了2005年的52%。2005年政府補助部分只有18%。
醫療改革很可能會顯著提高政府補助支出。去年12月衛生部部長陳竺曾表示﹐醫改旨在擴大城鄉基礎醫療服務的覆蓋面﹐以便向居民提供安全、有效、便捷且價格便宜的公共衛生和基礎醫療服務。
中國銀河證券股份有限公司(China Galaxy Securities Co.)的分析師劉彥明預計﹐政府醫療補助支出將從2006年的人民幣1,700億元躍升至2016年的人民幣1.2萬億元（約合1,700億美元）。
瑞士信貸集團(Credit Suisse Group)駐香港的分析師杜勁松（音）認為﹐政府補助的增加將使一些醫療設備公司從中受益。他估計﹐2007年至2010年間﹐中國醫療設備市場銷售收入的年均增幅將達20%。
在紐約證交所上市的邁瑞公司(Mindray Medical International)就有望迎來市場需求的增長。這家總部位於深圳市、有著17年歷史的企業主要從事監護設備、診斷儀器以及超聲成像系統的生產。
杜勁松在1月7日的一份報告中指出﹐政府加大了建設農村診所、城市社區醫院﹐以及更新醫療設備的力度﹐而主攻中低端市場的邁瑞在政府招標項目的激增中處於有利地位。今年1月3日﹐他將邁瑞的12個月目標價從42美元上調至46美元﹐並對該股給出了“強於大盤”的評級。
紐約證交所週三該股收盤下跌了2.49%﹐至34.49美元。
隨著美國股市的整體走軟﹐邁瑞股價近幾個月來也有所下滑。目前該股價格已較去年10月初創下的45美元左右的紀錄高點累計下跌了23%﹐跌幅略大於同期道瓊斯工業股票平均價格指數的跌幅﹐但好於上證綜合指數的表現。
UBS Investment Research駐上海的分析師Vicky Chen表示﹐邁瑞目前的股價提供了買進的良機。她將邁瑞的評級定為“買進”﹐將12個月目標價定為42.23美元。她表示﹐中國的醫療設備行業集中度仍 然很低﹐邁瑞在這個市場上處於領軍地位﹐該公司正在努力擴大面向農村市場的產品線﹐這將為其提供新的增長動力。
通用電氣公司 (General Electric Co.)、強生公司(Johnson & Johnson)以及荷蘭飛利浦電子集團(Philips Electronics N V)旗下的分公司Philips Medical Systems等外國公司也是中國醫療設備市場上的重量級選手。不過瑞士信貸的杜勁松認為﹐由於中國的醫療改革旨在擴大基礎醫療服務的覆蓋面﹐因此中國本 土公司處於更加有利的地位。國內公司能發揮它們在簡單、低成本產品製造上的優勢﹐而外國生產商通常定位於高端市場。
分析人士認為﹐其他有 望在醫療改革中受益的公司還包括﹕在那斯達克上市的診斷儀器製造商中國醫療技術公司(China Medical Technologies Inc.)﹐以及在香港上市的山東威高集團醫用高分子製品股份有限公司(Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer Co. Ltd.)﹐該公司主要從事輸血器具等用品的生產。
分析人士表示﹐醫療改革方案的另一個關鍵主題將是控制醫生出於利益考慮而多開藥、濫開藥。這可能會刺激非處方藥市場需求的增加﹐而且可能意味著藥房將從醫院分離開來。
醫 藥分離有望使類似中國海王星辰連鎖藥店有限公司(China Nepstar Chain Drugstore Ltd.)這樣的零售藥店受益。該公司在紐約證交所上市﹐是中國醫療保健行業巨頭海王星集團(Neptunus Group)旗下子公司。截至去年末﹐海王星辰已在中國62個城市開設了2,000多間藥店。市場諮詢公司Frost & Sulliva駐上海的顧問侯旭超（音）預計﹐中國的醫療改革將推動零售藥店的藥品銷量大幅增長﹐並表示海王星辰(sic) 處於很有利的地位。
紐約證交所週三該股收盤上漲了3.2%﹐至11.28美元﹐去年11月該股首次公開募股(IPO)時每股價格為16.2美元。
其他分析人士提醒道﹐目前仍有很多不確定性﹐所以很難預測誰將成為藥品市場的最大贏家。杜勁松認為﹐醫院藥房﹐尤其是農村診所和社區醫院的藥房﹐可能會成為藥店的強勁競爭對手。
還有更多的分析人士警告說﹐醫療改革的細節和時間仍存有不確定性﹐這也為投資醫療公司帶來了風險。瑞士銀行的Vicky Chen建議投資者專注於那些主要從事研發的公司。在產品差別不大且競爭激烈的醫療保健行業里﹐研發是保證可持續增長的一個關鍵因素。
More broadly, analysts warn that uncertainties over the details and timing of the health-care overhaul make investing in these companies risky. Ms. Chen of UBS advises investors to focus on companies that engage heavily in research and development, an essential component in sustaining growth in an industry marked by low product differentiation and fierce price competition.
hc安翻譯評論:
timing 不是"時間" 或許"時機"
醫療保健行業有一形容 "marled by"漏了
product differentiation 是專門行銷術語--"產品(特色)差異化"
"競爭激烈"漏了"價格"---"價格競爭激烈的
Health-Care Overhaul May Be A Tonic
OVER THE PAST two years, China's drug industry has suffered several scandals involving corruption among regulators that aggravated problems with tainted and potentially deadly medicines.
Now, with a government plan for a health-care overhaul nearing completion, there might be a light at the end of the tunnel -- at least for investors. Analysts say now may be a good time to invest in some Chinese health-care companies, especially those targeting the rural market.
It isn't clear when the health-care overhaul will be finalized, but it is expected to be a topic of discussion at this year's session of China's legislature, the National People's Congress, which started yesterday.
One major issue for the government, in addition to corruption, is affordability. According to the Health Ministry, China's average personal out-of-pocket payments rose to 52% of total health-care spending in 2005 from 20% in 1978. The government's contribution in 2005 was 18%.
The overhaul is likely to increase government spending significantly. The plan is aimed at 'expanding the coverage of basic health-care services to both urban and rural residents, so as to provide them with safe, effective, convenient and cheap public health and basic medical services,' Health Minister Chen Zhu said in December.
Liu Yanming, an analyst with Galaxy Securities, expects government funding for health care to soar to about 1.2 trillion yuan (roughly $170 billion) in 2016 from about 170 billion yuan in 2006.
Du Jinsong, an analyst based in Hong Kong for Credit Suisse, says some medical-device companies will benefit from this increased spending. Mr. Du estimates that revenue in China's medical-device market will grow an average of 20% a year between 2007 and 2010.
One company that could see increased demand is Mindray Medical International, which lists shares on the New York Stock Exchange. The 17-year-old Shenzhen-based company makes patient-monitoring devices, diagnostic laboratory instruments and ultrasound imaging systems.
Mindray, which caters primarily to low- and mid-priced markets, is in 'a good position from the surge in government tenders' to help build rural clinics and urban, community hospitals and to replace old equipment in existing ones, Mr. Du wrote in a Jan. 7 report. On Jan. 3, he revised his 12-month target price for Mindray's NYSE-listed shares to $46, from $42; he has an 'outperform' rating on the stock.
Yesterday the shares ended down 2.49% at $34.49 each in New York.
Mindray's share price has suffered in recent months as the broader U.S. stock market has fallen. It has declined 23% from its all-time peak around $45 in early October, slightly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial Average but outpacing China's benchmark Shanghai Composite Index.
The current price presents a good buying opportunity, says Vicky Chen, a Shanghai-based analyst with UBS Investment Research. She rates Mindray shares a 'buy,' with a target price of $42.23. Ms. Chen says that Mindray is a market leader in an industry still 'much fragmented' and that its efforts to expand its product pipeline with a rural focus will be another growth driver.
Foreign companies like General Electric, Johnson & Johnson and Philips Medical Systems, a unit of Philips Electronics, have also been big players in China's medical-device market. But Credit Suisse's Mr. Du reckons that domestic companies are better positioned to benefit from the expected overhaul because the goal of the changes will be to expand access to basic medical services. That plays to the strengths of domestic companies, which are usually stronger in producing less-sophisticated, lower-cost items than foreign vendors, who usually target the higher-end market.
Other companies that analysts say could benefit from the health-care overhaul include: China Medical Technologies Inc., which lists shares on the Nasdaq Stock Market and makes diagnostic devices; and Weigao Group, which is listed in Hong Kong and makes blood-infusion sets and other supplies.
Another key theme in the health-care overhaul plan, analysts say, will be curbing overprescribing of drugs by doctors seeking to maximize profit. That could fuel greater demand for over-the-counter medicines and mean the separation of drug dispensing from hospitals.
The outcome of that initiative could benefit retail drugstore operators like China Nepstar Chain Drugstore Ltd., which lists shares on the NYSE. Nepstar, a subsidiary of Chinese health-care conglomerate Neptunus Group, ran more than 2,000 drugstores in 62 Chinese cities as of the end of last year. Hou Xuchao, a Shanghai-based consultant with the market-consulting company Frost & Sullivan, expects China's health-care overhaul 'will lead to a huge increase' in the sales of pharmaceuticals through such retail outlets and says Nepstar is well positioned to benefit.
Nepstar's shares ended up 3.2% at $11.28 each, compared with its initial public offering price of $16.20 in November.
Other analysts caution that many uncertainties still cloud who will be the biggest beneficiary in the pharmaceutical market. Mr. Du thinks hospital pharmacies, especially in rural clinics and community hospitals, could be big competitors for drugstore operators.
More broadly, analysts warn that uncertainties over the details and timing of the health-care overhaul make investing in these companies risky. Ms. Chen of UBS advises investors to focus on companies that engage heavily in research and development, an essential component in sustaining growth in an industry marked by low product differentiation and fierce price competition.
Now, with a government plan for a health-care overhaul nearing completion, there might be a light at the end of the tunnel -- at least for investors. Analysts say now may be a good time to invest in some Chinese health-care companies, especially those targeting the rural market.
It isn't clear when the health-care overhaul will be finalized, but it is expected to be a topic of discussion at this year's session of China's legislature, the National People's Congress, which started yesterday.
One major issue for the government, in addition to corruption, is affordability. According to the Health Ministry, China's average personal out-of-pocket payments rose to 52% of total health-care spending in 2005 from 20% in 1978. The government's contribution in 2005 was 18%.
The overhaul is likely to increase government spending significantly. The plan is aimed at 'expanding the coverage of basic health-care services to both urban and rural residents, so as to provide them with safe, effective, convenient and cheap public health and basic medical services,' Health Minister Chen Zhu said in December.
Liu Yanming, an analyst with Galaxy Securities, expects government funding for health care to soar to about 1.2 trillion yuan (roughly $170 billion) in 2016 from about 170 billion yuan in 2006.
Du Jinsong, an analyst based in Hong Kong for Credit Suisse, says some medical-device companies will benefit from this increased spending. Mr. Du estimates that revenue in China's medical-device market will grow an average of 20% a year between 2007 and 2010.
One company that could see increased demand is Mindray Medical International, which lists shares on the New York Stock Exchange. The 17-year-old Shenzhen-based company makes patient-monitoring devices, diagnostic laboratory instruments and ultrasound imaging systems.
Mindray, which caters primarily to low- and mid-priced markets, is in 'a good position from the surge in government tenders' to help build rural clinics and urban, community hospitals and to replace old equipment in existing ones, Mr. Du wrote in a Jan. 7 report. On Jan. 3, he revised his 12-month target price for Mindray's NYSE-listed shares to $46, from $42; he has an 'outperform' rating on the stock.
Yesterday the shares ended down 2.49% at $34.49 each in New York.
Mindray's share price has suffered in recent months as the broader U.S. stock market has fallen. It has declined 23% from its all-time peak around $45 in early October, slightly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial Average but outpacing China's benchmark Shanghai Composite Index.
The current price presents a good buying opportunity, says Vicky Chen, a Shanghai-based analyst with UBS Investment Research. She rates Mindray shares a 'buy,' with a target price of $42.23. Ms. Chen says that Mindray is a market leader in an industry still 'much fragmented' and that its efforts to expand its product pipeline with a rural focus will be another growth driver.
Foreign companies like General Electric, Johnson & Johnson and Philips Medical Systems, a unit of Philips Electronics, have also been big players in China's medical-device market. But Credit Suisse's Mr. Du reckons that domestic companies are better positioned to benefit from the expected overhaul because the goal of the changes will be to expand access to basic medical services. That plays to the strengths of domestic companies, which are usually stronger in producing less-sophisticated, lower-cost items than foreign vendors, who usually target the higher-end market.
Other companies that analysts say could benefit from the health-care overhaul include: China Medical Technologies Inc., which lists shares on the Nasdaq Stock Market and makes diagnostic devices; and Weigao Group, which is listed in Hong Kong and makes blood-infusion sets and other supplies.
Another key theme in the health-care overhaul plan, analysts say, will be curbing overprescribing of drugs by doctors seeking to maximize profit. That could fuel greater demand for over-the-counter medicines and mean the separation of drug dispensing from hospitals.
The outcome of that initiative could benefit retail drugstore operators like China Nepstar Chain Drugstore Ltd., which lists shares on the NYSE. Nepstar, a subsidiary of Chinese health-care conglomerate Neptunus Group, ran more than 2,000 drugstores in 62 Chinese cities as of the end of last year. Hou Xuchao, a Shanghai-based consultant with the market-consulting company Frost & Sullivan, expects China's health-care overhaul 'will lead to a huge increase' in the sales of pharmaceuticals through such retail outlets and says Nepstar is well positioned to benefit.
Nepstar's shares ended up 3.2% at $11.28 each, compared with its initial public offering price of $16.20 in November.
Other analysts caution that many uncertainties still cloud who will be the biggest beneficiary in the pharmaceutical market. Mr. Du thinks hospital pharmacies, especially in rural clinics and community hospitals, could be big competitors for drugstore operators.
More broadly, analysts warn that uncertainties over the details and timing of the health-care overhaul make investing in these companies risky. Ms. Chen of UBS advises investors to focus on companies that engage heavily in research and development, an essential component in sustaining growth in an industry marked by low product differentiation and fierce price competition.
Sue Feng
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