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不久前，人口統計學家曾預言城市將消失。發達國家服務經濟的不穩定性以及科技使各企業能夠在任何地方設立店鋪並使工人能夠遠程辦公等因素將成為人們無需高度聚集在一起的催化劑。
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但事實並非如此。世界資源研究所 (World Resource Institute) 的研究表明，全球城市居民的數量預計在2025年將達到50億，較1990年翻一番。事實證明，許多人就是喜歡城市生活，而遠程辦公也存在侷限性：做生意仍需要面談時間。
Embarq的 WRI Center for Sustainable Transport 主管 Nancy Kete 表示：「人們都想住在其他人居住的地方。我們可以從相互交流中獲得能量。」不僅是那些發展完善的中等規模城市的人口在不斷增長，發展中世界也正不斷湧現巨 型城市中心。
亞洲和拉丁美洲隨處可見希望找到更好的工作並居住在城裏的農民工。預計2025年全球人口最多的10大城市中，有9個將來自亞洲和拉美。這些大城市包括：印度的孟買、加爾各答和德里，巴基斯坦的卡拉奇以及中國的上海。該榜單上的拉美城市包括墨西哥城和巴西的聖保羅。
預計，紐約和東京將成為17年來僅有的兩個一直出現在這一榜單上的超大型城市。
世界資源研究所預計，2025年將出現33個超大型城市（人口超過800萬），這一數字較1990年的21個有所增長，更不用說1950年的2個了（倫敦 和紐約）。除6個城市外，這33個城市中的其它城市都將位於發展中國家。這些超大型城市中有許多都在很大程度上依靠製造業來拉動經濟增長，憑借低廉的交通 費用和充足的勞動力，這裏的城市環境變得更具吸引力。
可是問題在於規劃。現在和未來的超大型城市中有很多都未能未雨綢繆，為它們將如何改善交通（滿足越來越多人的交通需求）、住房（避免過度擁擠）和污染現況 進行規劃。隨著交通日漸擁擠，上下班花費的時間越來越長——某些地方的上班族每天花費在路上的時間平均達到三個小時，經濟生產力可能會有所減退。
Kete 表示：「這些城市中除了紐約之外，其它城市都尚未決定為21世紀的發展制訂藍圖。它們都正被自身的發展壓得無法喘息。」Kete 認為，就拿墨西哥城官員來說，他們正為墨西哥政府沒有對其周邊地區更多的軌道交通進行投資一事而犯愁。
墨西哥政府並沒有投資於墨西哥城的基礎設施建設，而是正在使用工廠補貼等土地分配政策來鼓勵人們遷移。哥倫比亞大學 (Columbia University) 城市研究主任 Owen Gutfreund 表示：「該計劃旨在遏制（而非鼓勵）墨西哥城的發展。」他指出，與眼見該城市的基礎設施建設無法跟上人口激增的腳步相比，這倒也不是一個糟糕的方法。
Gutfreund 認為上海是一座高瞻遠矚的超大型城市，他指出，該城市正在擴建高速交通——每戶住宅的平均使用面積增長了25%，並積極開發緊鄰的住宅、商業和公共交通用 地。Gutfreund 和 Kete 都對孟買最為不滿。儘管孟買人口年增長率預計將達1.8%，到2025年其居民數可能將超過2600萬人，但該市至今還未開始進行任何實際的城市規劃。儘 管孟買整體經濟發展強勁，人均收入為印度全國平均水平的3倍，但其市中心的大片地區仍處於貧窮且擁擠的狀態。
| 2025年的大城市 | ||||
| 排名 | 城市 | 目前人口 | 預計2025年人口 | 2007-2025年 的年增長率 |
| 1 | 日本東京（圖） | 3,520萬 | 3,640萬 | 0.11% |
| 2 | 印度孟買（圖） | 1,820萬 | 2,640萬 | 1.83% |
| 3 | 印度德里（圖） | 1,500萬 | 2,250萬 | 1.92% |
| 9 | 中國上海（圖） | 1,450萬 | 1,940萬 | 1.44% |
| 查看2025年所有其他人口最多的城市（圖） 孟加拉國達卡、墨西哥城、美國紐約以及印度加爾各答等 | ||||
| 資料來源：富比世，製表：許惠雯 | ||||
原文：Forbes.com
【2008-03-19 富比世】
The 10 Biggest Cities Of 2025Tom Van Riper, 03.19.08, 6:00 PM ET
The age of the mega city is just beginning. Ready or not, huge metros are growing across the globe. The question is how many are ready, from an infrastructural and environmental standpoint, to handle the load.
Experts say that it's a mixed bag but that many have a long way to go.
Not long ago, demographers were predicting the demise of the city. A swing to a service economy in the developed world, combined with technology allowing businesses to set up shop anywhere and workers to telecommute, would be the catalysts in eliminating the need for people to concentrate so close together.
In Pictures: The World's 10 Biggest Cities in 2025
But it hasn't worked out that way. The number of urban dwellers is expected to hit 5 billion globally by 2025--double the number of 1990, according to studies by the World Resource Institute. As it turns out, many people just like the city life, and telecommuting opportunities are limited: Doing business still requires face time.
"Humans want to be where others are. We get our energy from interacting," says Nancy Kete, director of Embarq's WRI Center for Sustainable Transport.
Not only are populations in many established mid-size cities increasing, the developing world is sprouting giant urban centers left and right.
Asia and Latin America, each cluttered with rural workers looking for better jobs and housing in the city, are slated to have nine of the world's 10 most populous cities by 2025. Among them: Mumbai, Calcutta and Delhi in India, Karachi in Pakistan and Shanghai, China. Latin American cities on the list include Mexico City and San Paulo, Brazil.
New York and Tokyo are the only traditional power cities expected to remain on the mega cities list in 17 years.
The World Resource Institute predicts 33 mega cities--those with populations exceeding 8 million--by 2025. That's up from 21 in 1990, not to mention two in 1950 (London and New York). All but six of the 33 will be in the developing world.
That many of these metropolises rely on manufacturing for much of their economies makes an urban environment, with its cheap transportation and closely packed labor market, that much more appealing.
The problem lies in preparedness. Many of today's and tomorrow's mega cities aren't planning ahead for how they'll improve transportation (moving more and more people around), housing (to avoid overcrowding) and pollution.
The risk is a loss of economic productivity, as congestion increases and long commutes--already averaging a three-hour round trip in some places--become even longer.
"None of these cities, other than New York, have made a decision to have a vision for the 21st century," Kete says. "They are choking on their own growth."
Mexico City officials, for instance, are hamstrung by the country's failure to invest in more mass transit in surrounding areas, Kete thinks.
Instead of investing in Mexico City's infrastructure, the Mexican government is using land allocation policies, such as subsidies for factories, to encourage people to move elsewhere.
"The plan is to curtail the growth of Mexico City (instead of facing it head on)," says Owen Gutfreund, director of urban studies at Columbia University. That's not a bad approach, he figures, compared with the alternative: seeing the city's population balloon faster than the infrastructure can keep up.
Gutfreund holds up Shanghai as an example of a forward-thinking mega city, noting its expansion of rapid transit--a 25% increase in average square footage per residential household--and aggressive development of space aimed at placing housing, business and public transport close to each other.
Both he and Kete are most critical of Mumbai, which hasn't embarked on any real urban planning despite an expected 1.8% annual population growth that will likely result in over 26 million inhabitants by 2025.
A big swath in the middle of the city remains poor and congested, despite a robust overall economy that's yielded a per capita income three times India's national average.
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