2022年5月12日 星期四

改變印度的經濟、技術......。機會是印度和莫迪先生的,他卻可能浪費它們

 google   在接下來的十年中,一系列新型部隊的融合將改變印度的經濟。隨著技術成本的下降,該國推出了“技術堆棧”:一套由國家國家贊助的數字服務,將普通印第安人與電子身份,付款和稅收系統以及銀行帳戶聯繫起來。這些平台的迅速採用使渦輪增壓了世界第三大創業現場,僅次於美國和中國。除此之外,印度正在創建更大的業務集群,包括技術和可再生能源,並希望隨著供應鏈從中國的轉移而獲得。它還使用了直接,實時的數字福利制度,在三年內支付了2000億美元,向大約9.5億人支付了否則會錯過的人。


Bharatiya Janata黨(BJP)的背後,它從全球趨勢及其前任的工作中受益,但也通過支持技術堆棧和直接福利來解決問題,並堅持不懈地努力縮小非正式經濟的痛苦任務。它是由納倫德拉·莫迪(Narendra Modi)領導的,納倫德拉·莫迪(Narendra Modi)的主導地位既是穩定的來源,也是威脅的來源。一個風險是人民黨對穆斯林的憎惡敵意,它用來集結其政治基礎。莫迪先生還沉迷於親戚,對他的批評家們有刺耳的態度和辯護,從而選擇了官僚機構來欺負新聞界和法院。印度的增長有望改善14億人口的生活,並改變亞洲的權力平衡。機會是印度和莫迪先生的浪費。

A novel confluence of forces stands to transform India’s economy over the next decade. As the cost of technology has dropped, the country has rolled out a “tech stack”: a set of national, state-sponsored digital services that link ordinary Indians with an electronic identity, payments and tax systems, and bank accounts. The rapid adoption of these platforms has turbocharged the world’s third-largest startup scene after America’s and China’s. Alongside that, India is creating bigger business clusters, including in tech and renewable energy, and hopes to gain as supply chains shift from China. It has also used a direct, real-time, digital welfare system to pay $200bn over three years to about 950m people who would otherwise have missed out.

Behind this stands the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which has benefited from global trends and the work of its predecessors, but has also got things right by backing the tech stack and direct welfare, and persevering with the painful task of shrinking the informal economy. It is led by Narendra Modi, whose dominance is both a source of stability and a threat. One risk is the BJP’s abhorrent hostility towards Muslims, which it uses to rally its political base. Mr Modi also indulges cronies and is prickly and vindictive towards his critics, co-opting the bureaucracy to bully the press and the courts. India’s growth promises to improve the lives of 1.4bn people and change the balance of power in Asia. The opportunity is India’s and Mr Modi’s to squander.


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