SINOSPHERE
Q. and A.: Ezra F. Vogel on China’s Shifting Relations With Japan and Taiwan
JAVIER C. HERNÁNDEZ November 13, 2015 紐約時報
時報看中國
傅高義：習近平時代的中日和兩岸關係
赫海威 2015年11月13日
Ezra F. Vogel, 85, a sociologist at Harvard University, has spent a lifetime studying China and Japan, writing a best-sellingbiography of the Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping and producing widely read studies of Japanese society. Now, dispirited by mounting tensions between the two countries, he has set out to promote a deeper understanding of the relationship between China and Japan across time. Mr. Vogel is working on a book that will explore moments in history when China and Japan were in closest contact, beginning with Japanese missions to China during the Tang dynasty (618-907) to study Buddhism, medicine and architecture. He will examine the period of 1895 through 1937, when many Chinese went to Japan to study, as well as the legacy of Japan’s invasion of China in what became World War II, played out in continuing disputes over history and territory. He also plans to investigate the export of Japanese culture into China, including movies and technology, in more recent times. In an interview during a visit to the Stanford Center at Peking University in Beijing, he discussed relations between China and Japan, as well as some of the challenges facing Chinese leaders today.
現年85歲的哈佛大學社會學家傅高義(Ezra F. Vogel)傾畢生精力研究中國和日本，他撰寫的中國領導人鄧小平的傳記相當暢銷，他對日本社會的研究也贏得了許多讀者。如今，這兩個國家之間日益加深的緊張令他失望，於是他着手向人們介紹，中日兩國之間源遠流長的關係。傅高義正在寫一本書，探討兩國密切往來的歷史時期，以唐代（618年至907年）日本遣唐使到中國研究佛教、醫學和建築為開端，陸續談到1895年至1937年，很多中國人前去日本留學的那段時期。他還會談到，日本在二戰之前和二戰期間侵略中國的過去，在持續不斷的領土和歷史糾紛中發揮的影響。他還計劃探討日本近年來對中國的文化輸出，包括電影和技術方面。傅高義前往北京大學斯坦福中心訪問時，接受了記者的採訪，討論了中國和日本之間的關係，以及中國領導人如今面臨的一些挑戰。
Q. It has now been 70 years since the end of World War II, but animosity persists, and Chinese leaders routinely call on Japan to apologize for its wartime actions. Why has it been so difficult to find common ground?
問：二戰結束已經70年了，仇恨依然存在，中國領導人經常敦促日本對二戰時期的行為道歉。為什麼要達成共識如此困難？
A. The Chinese feel they are an awfully grand civilization, and that the world was turned upside down after the mid-19th century when the imperialists came in. They think: “We have suffered. Finally, we’ve made it. Japan has been looking down on us since the late 19th century. Now our economy has passed Japan’s. Bow down and apologize for all the horrible things you did.” That’s a fundamental psychological underpinning.
答：中國人認為自己有非常燦爛的文明，但在19世紀中葉之後，帝國主義的侵略讓他們的世界發生了天翻地覆的變化。他們認為：「我們遭受了很多苦難，最後終於挺了過來。日本從19世紀末期就一直瞧不起我們。現在我們的經濟已經超過了日本，那就為你們做過的醜惡行徑彎腰道歉吧。」就是這樣一種基本心態。
Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
2012年，在中國昆明，一名示威者抗議日本對東海有爭議的島嶼採取行動。這是導致兩國關係緊張的問題之一。
Secondly, I think World War II was not discussed and dealt with in a kind of open way. The Cold War interfered, and they didn’t talk to each other much. They never really worked out their feelings about the war, and there were never formal agreements about reparations and things like that. I also think that the anti-Japanese movement has been helpful for Chinese leaders after the Tiananmen incident [the military suppression of democracy protests in 1989], in providing a motif to get the students to support the leadership.
其次，我覺得他們還沒有以一種開放的態度來討論和對待二戰。冷戰是個干擾，中日之間很少交談，兩國從來沒有真正理清過自己對二戰的感情，從未對賠償之類的事情簽訂過正式協議。我還覺得，在天安門事件（1989年對民主抗議活動進行軍事鎮壓）發生之後，反日活動對中國領導人很有用，它提供了一個主題，來讓學生們支持中共的領導。
Q. To mark the 70th anniversary of the end of the war in September, President Xi Jinping presided over amilitary parade in Beijing. What message was China trying to send?
問：今年9月，為了紀念抗戰結束70周年，習近平在北京舉行了一場閱兵式。中國在試圖傳達怎樣的信息？
A. They wanted to show that China is a major power, but they also wanted to show the people that this is a strong government, and that they have a lot to be proud of. They want the military to be in line, and the whole country to be unified.
答：他們想展示中國是一個大國，但他們也想向人們展示，中國政府強大有力，有很多值得自豪的地方。他們希望軍隊聽指揮，全國上下一條心。
Q. How would you describe the attitude of China’s leaders today toward Japan?
問：您如何形容中國領導人如今對日本的態度？
A. The current leadership did not have much experience in foreign policy when they came into power. They are the Cultural Revolution generation. They didn’t have direct contact with foreign countries or cultures in their formative years. There’s a kind of mixture now between the pragmatic people, who realize they need Japanese technology and trade and tourism and so forth as part of the global international picture, and those who are furious and think that to unify the country, unity against Japan is very important.
答：這一屆領導班子上台時沒有太多外交政策方面的經驗。他們是文革一代，在性格形成期沒有直接接觸外國或外國文化。現在，一些人是實用派，認識到自己需要日本的的技術、貿易、旅遊等，認為這些是全球國際格局的一部分；而另一些人則心懷憤怒，認為全國上下團結一致來反日是非常重要的。
Q. What can China learn from Japan as it deals with aslowing economy?
問：在應對經濟日漸放緩這個問題上，中國能從日本學到什麼？
A. The Chinese situation has a lot of differences. I think they’re trying very hard now to deal with the inequality problem. Xi Jinping and his generation don’t have enough experience. They think they can get rid of it in five years, but that’s unrealistic. My own guess is — I’m not an economist, I don’t get involved in those details — but 6.5 percent economic growth for five years sounds to me a little high. I think you sort of go with the punches, you don’t panic, you don’t let the bubble get too much bigger. The Japanese did make mistakes in the 1980s in letting the bubble get too big.
答：中國的情況有很大的不同。我覺得他們正在非常努力地解決不平等問題。習近平和他那一代人經驗不足。他們以為自己能夠在五年之內消除這個問題，但這是不現實的。我自己的猜測是——當然我不是經濟專家，也不討論細節——五年保持6.5%的經濟增長，這個目標在我聽來有點高。我認為得在一定程度上隨機應變，不要驚慌失措，也不讓泡沫變得更大。日本80年代的確犯過錯，讓泡沫變得太大了。
Q. President Ma Ying-jeou of Taiwan, a former student of yours, and President Xi met in Singapore recently, the first time the two sides had met since the Communists came to power in 1949. What do you think led to the decision to meet?
問：台灣總統馬英九(Ma Ying-jeou)曾是您的學生。最近，他在新加坡與中國國家主席習近平舉行了會晤，這是雙方自共產黨1949年掌權後首次會面。您認為是什麼原因促使雙方決定會面？
A. Ma Ying-jeou is a very principled guy who really cares about doing good things for his Taiwan. I think he feels that at the end of his career he wants to do something really constructive, to take a big step toward closer relations that cannot be undone. This is very dramatic.
答：馬英九是一個非常有原則的人，真的有意為自己領導的台灣做些好事。我想他是覺得在自己任期快結束時，希望做些真正有建設性的事情，向著建立更親密的、無法解除的關係邁進一步。這是非常引人注目的。
For Xi Jinping, my hunch is that he wants to show he’s making some progress in the relationship — that he’s not a weak character. I think he must calculate that this will constrain Tsai Ing-wen [presidential candidate of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party], assuming she becomes the new leader in Taiwan.
對於習近平，我的直覺是他希望表明自己在兩岸關係上取得了一定的進步，不是軟弱之人。我想他肯定在考慮，如果蔡英文（Tsai Ing-wen，反對黨民進黨的總統候選人）成為台灣新一任領導人後，此事會對她形成制約。
Q. You have studied the life of Deng Xiaoping in great detail. How does he compare with President Xi, who is often said to be the most influential leader since Deng?
問：您非常詳細地研究過鄧小平的一生，而習近平常被說成是自鄧小平之後，最有影響力的領導人。應該如何比較鄧小平和習近平這兩人呢？
A. Xi Jinping wants to be a game changer. He wants to have one centralized authority. I think in that sense you can compare him with Mao and Deng. I think Deng was undertaking a very basic reform structure. And what Xi Jinping is trying to do is take a structure that’s pretty well formed now and adapt it to deal with various problems.
答：習近平想改變遊戲規則，他希望擁有集中的權威。我認為在這一點上可以把他和毛澤東及鄧小平相提並論。我覺得鄧小平當年是在制定一個非常基本的改革結構。而習近平現在試圖做的，則是利用現在已經相當完整的結構，並對其進行調整，以應對各種各樣的問題。
I disagree with people who think Xi Jinping is the strongest leader since Mao. Deng Xiaoping was a military hero, he had spent six years abroad, he was a local leader, he had been one of the first thousand or so members of the Communist Party, he had foreign policy experience, he had a breadth and depth of contact.
有人認為習近平是毛澤東以來最強有力的領導人，我不同意他們的觀點。鄧小平是一名軍事英雄，在國外待過六年，當過地方領導人，也是最早加入共產黨的大約1000名黨員之一。他有外交政策方面的經驗，有深入廣泛的接觸。
Xi Jinping is the new man on the block. He had no work experience in Beijing. To get control over a large organization, you can’t compare with the power and authority that Deng had. Xi’s got tough problems to deal with, but it will take him a while to do it.
習近平是個新手，他沒有在北京的工作經驗。要想控制一個龐大的機構，他的實力和權威不能和鄧小平相比。習近平有棘手的問題需要處理，但要花些時間。
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