Vietnam Faces Last-Minute Maneuvering for Communist Party Leadership
MIKE IVES January 20, 2016
HANOI, Vietnam — Soon after becoming the American ambassador toVietnam in 2007, Michael W. Michalak approached Nguyen Tan Dung, the country’s new prime minister, at a gala dinner and mentioned that human rights were among the American government’s highest priorities inVietnam.
“You could see his face just freeze,” Mr. Michalak, now the senior vice president of the U.S.-Asean Business Council, recalled with a chuckle. Mr. Michalak quickly told Mr. Dung that he wanted to toast his health and make a friendly suggestion: The caterers should serve American beef at the next such diplomatic event.
“He just cracked up, and we started drinking vodka,” Mr. Michalak said. “And ever since then, at every one of these dinners, he always would make sure to have a shot of vodka with me.”
On Wednesday, Vietnam’s ruling Communist Party is to convene its national congress, which meets every five years to select the country’s top leaders. And Mr. Dung, a charismatic prime minister who favors closer ties with the United States, is battling to succeed Nguyen Phu Trong, a conservative apparatchik looking to stay on in the party’s top job of general secretary, according to several analysts, diplomats and business leaders.
The outcome of these congresses is usually settled months in advance, but a protracted spat between factions loyal to Mr. Dung and Mr. Trong has resulted in last-minute maneuvering. Whoever comes out on top could determine the future of Vietnam’s carefully calibrated strategic balance between China, its ideological ally and main trading partner, and the United States, which the party elite increasingly considers an important counterweight against growing Chinese influence in the region.
Mr. Dung, who is finishing his second term as prime minister, won praise among Vietnamese for denouncing China’s decision to move an oil rig into disputed waters near Vietnam’s coast in May 2014, and he is considered a champion of market-oriented policies who has developed warm personal relationships with top American officials.
By contrast, Mr. Trong, the party’s general secretary since 2011, appeared reluctant to criticize China in the oil rig dispute, and he is seen as a more forceful proponent of the state’s role in the economy and defender of the party’s monopoly on power. But he also steered Vietnam into the Trans-Pacific Partnership, an American-led trade agreement among a dozen Pacific Rim nations that excludes China.
“If the conservative faction emerges the winner at this party congress, the U.S. may find that it would need to do even more trust-building with Hanoi” than it has done lately, said Phuong Nguyen, an associate fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
“Trade and investment ties are expected to still forge ahead if the TPP is ratified,” she said, but she predicted that it would be more difficult for Washington to expand military ties with Vietnam if Mr. Trong’s faction prevailed.
At 66, Mr. Dung is five years younger than Mr. Trong. But according to a longstanding rule, the age limit for a member of the Politburo to start a new term is 65. The leadership can grant an exception, however, and Mr. Dung has been angling for one so he can succeed Mr. Trong as the party’s general secretary, several Vietnamese political observers have said in recent months.
That prospect, once considered almost inevitable, has come to seem less likely in recent days as Mr. Trong and his supporters have sought to force Mr. Dung into retirement, analysts said. The apparent turnaround has caused concern among Vietnam’s urban intellectuals, many of whom view Mr. Dung as the best hope for further integration into the global economy and curbing Chinese influence in the region.
“Dung doesn’t have many allies in the Politburo, and it’s very hard for him to change the status quo, so we are worrying,” said a Vietnamese academic at a state-affiliated institution, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive political matter.
While Mr. Trong’s supporters are said to have the upper hand in the elite, 16-member Politburo, they are worried that Mr. Dung, an unusually dynamic prime minister, has undercut the party leadership by strengthening government institutions and building a vast patronage network among provincial party bosses and in the 175-member Central Committee.
One chain of events that has been discussed in recent days is that the party’s top four leaders, including Mr. Dung and Mr. Trong, will retire and cede power to a younger crop of Politburo members, apparently in a victory for Mr. Trong’s camp. Some analysts said Mr. Trong may even remain in his post for another year or two to keep a lid on tensions inside the party elite.
It is not entirely clear how the leadership shuffle will affect Vietnam’s warming relationship with the United States, or its efforts to assert its economic independence and sovereignty over parts of the South China Sea without angering China.
In May 2014, the Chinese oil rig episode set off street protests in some cities that were initially tolerated — some said encouraged — by the government, and then riots at industrial parks in central and southern provinces. Dung, unlike other party leaders, responded to the Chinese move with denunciations of Beijing's territorial ambitions that appealed to Vietnamese patriotism.
Relations between the Communist neighbors have since recovered somewhat, and Dung shook hands with President Xi Jinping of China when he visited Hanoi in November. But many Vietnamese object to China's island-building projects in disputed waters, viewing them as reminders of Chinese imperial conquests of Vietnam. They also resent China's economic influence here, in the form of growing trade, tourism and infrastructure projects.
At the beginning of January, Vietnam formally accused China of violating its sovereignty, as well as a recent confidence-building pact, after Beijing landed a plane on one of the artificial islands built by the Chinese.
Mr. Dung’s economic record has been marred by scandals at state-owned enterprises and a bout of debilitating inflation. Yet he is still widely seen as the party’s strongest proponent of opening the Vietnamese economy to more foreign investment and competition, and of Vietnam’s membership in the TPP.
“Until now, none of our leaders did much to internationalize Vietnam, but Dung is different — he stands out,” said Nguyen Viet Ha, who runs a chemical-trading company in Hanoi. “Before, we depended on China a bit more, and now we’re a bit more independent and have access to Western technology.”
Bui Kien Thanh, an American-educated businessman who has advised Mr. Dung and other prime ministers on economic policy, acknowledged that such policies had left Mr. Dung open to criticism. “A lot of people say Nguyen Tan Dung is an American ally and so on, but that is only talk,” he said. “Nguyen Tan Dung sees very well that economic opening cannot go without good relations with the U.S.”
Other analysts and business leaders said relations with the United States would remain on an upward swing even if Mr. Dung were forced to retire. Mr. Trong’s visit to the White House in July — the first by a Vietnamese Communist Party boss — was a clear sign of a growing consensus across party factions that better relations with the United States is in Vietnam’s national interest, they said.
Mr. Michalak, the former American ambassador, said Vietnam’s relationship with China had “dropped down a few degrees” since the oil rig dispute. “I don’t think that’s going to change anytime soon no matter what government gets in” at the congress, he added.
越共選舉新領導人，中美成關鍵因素
MIKE IVES 2016年1月20日
Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
越共全國代表大會周三召開，周一工人們在越南河內的一個會議中心布置裝飾物。
越南河內——2007年上任美國駐越南大使不久，邁克爾·W·邁克拉克(Michael W. Michalak)在一次晚宴中上前與越南總理阮晉勇(Nguyen Tan Dung)談話，中間他提到，人權是美國政府在越南最重視的問題之一。
「你能看到他的臉馬上就僵住了，」邁克拉克低聲笑着回憶到，他現在是美國-東盟工商理事會(U.S.-Asean Business Council)的高級副會長。邁克拉克接著說想為他的健康乾杯，並提了一個友好的建議：下一次舉辦這樣的外交活動，應該讓晚宴承辦商提供美國牛肉。
- 檢視大圖Brendan Smialowski/A.F.P. — Getty Images越共總書記阮富仲
- 檢視大圖Sean Gallup/Getty Images越南總理阮晉勇
- 檢視大圖Aaron Joel Santos for The New York Times越南河內，為將於周三開始的越共黨代會準備的一面旗幟。
- 檢視大圖Aaron Joel Santos for The New York Times在美國接受教育的商人裴基成曾給阮晉勇及其他總理就經濟政策提供建議。
- 檢視大圖Aaron Joel Santos for The New York Times一名士兵在位於河內的胡志明紀念堂前，馬路對面是越南國會所在地。
「他大笑起來，我們開始喝伏特加，」邁克拉克說。「自那以後，每次宴會，他總會和我一起喝一杯伏特加。」
周三，執政的越南共產黨將召開五年一次的全國代表大會，選舉該國最高領導人。頗具個人魅力的總理阮晉勇支持與美國建立更緊密的聯繫，據幾位分析人士、外交官和商業領袖透露，他正努力讓自己成為比較保守的現任越共書記阮富仲(Nguyen Phu Trong)的繼任者，後者則正在謀求連任。
最後的領導人人選通常在大會舉行幾個月前就會定下來，但這一次因為忠於阮晉勇和阮富仲的兩派勢均力敵，到最後一刻，雙方還在爭鬥。最後當選的人，將決定越南與中國和美國之間需要仔細拿捏的戰略平衡，前者是越南的意識形態盟友、重要貿易夥伴，後者則越來越被黨內精英看作一種重要的制衡力量，以針對在該地區影響力日益增大的中國。
2014年5月，中國將一座大型石油鑽井平台拖入越南近海爭議水域時，阮晉勇曾對其進行譴責，由此在越南人中贏得不少讚譽。即將結束總理第二任期的他，被認為是以市場為導向的經濟政策的倡導者，也與不少美國高層官員有不錯的私人關係。
相比之下，自2011年起擔任越共總書記的阮富仲當時似乎不願就石油鑽井平台爭端批評中國，他被認為力主促進政府在經濟決策中扮演主要角色，也是越共專權的維護者。但他也帶領越南加入了跨太平洋夥伴關係協定(Trans-Pacific Partnership)，這是一個由美國主導的貿易協定，成員為十二個環太平洋國家，其中不包括中國。
位於華盛頓的國際戰略研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)副研究員阮方(Phuong Nguyen)表示，「如果保守派在黨代會選舉中獲勝，美國可能會發現，它將需要採取更多的行動，與河內建立互信。」
「如果TPP正式獲批，貿易和投資關係有望加強，」她說，但她也預測，如果阮富仲一方獲勝，華盛頓將更加難以擴大與越南的軍事聯繫。
現年66歲的阮晉勇比阮富仲年輕五歲。但根據一條沿用多年規則，首次當選政治局委員的年齡限制是65歲。不過，幾位越南政治觀察人士最近幾個月曾經表示，領導層可以為之破例，而且阮晉勇一直在謀求進入該委員會，以便能接替阮富仲擔任越共總書記。
然而，有分析人士表示，最近幾天，這件原先被認為幾乎必然會發生的事，似乎可能性沒那麼大了，因為阮富仲及其支持者試圖迫使阮晉勇退休。這種比較明顯的態勢轉變，在越南的都市知識分子中引發了擔憂，他們中有很多人認為，阮晉勇是越南進一步融入全球經濟和遏制中國在該地區影響力的最大希望。
「阮晉勇在政治局裡沒有太多盟友，他很難改變現在的狀況，所以我們有點擔心，」一家越南國有附屬機構的一名越南學者說道，由於事關敏感政治問題，此人要求匿名。
儘管阮富仲的支持者據說在政治局16名高層中佔據上風，但他們擔心極具活力的總理阮晉勇已經削弱了越共的領導，因為他增強了政府機構的職能，並在省級黨政領導層和175人的中央委員會建立起裙帶網絡。
最近的一連串事件引發了議論，包括阮晉勇和阮富仲在內的四位越共最高領導人將退休，將權力移交給幾名更年輕的政治局委員，這顯然意味着阮富仲陣營獲勝。一些分析人士表示，阮富仲甚至可能還會再擔任總書記一兩年，以便控制黨內精英內部的緊張關係。
目前還不完全清楚，領導層交接會如何影響越南與美國日漸轉暖的外交關係，也不清楚它會對越南維護自身經濟獨立和在部分南海海域宣示主權的努力產生什麼影響。
2014年5月，中國石油鑽井平台爭端引發越南一些城市的街頭抗議，這些行為最初得到了政府的容許——有些人說是鼓勵，後來越南中南部省份的一些工業園區還發生了騷亂。與其他越共領導人不同，阮晉勇對中國的行動做出回應，譴責北京的領土野心，激發了越南人的愛國主義情緒。
之後，中國和越南兩個社會主義近鄰的關係有所改善，去年11月中國國家主席習近平訪問河內時，阮晉勇和他握了手。但很多越南人反對中國在爭議水域進行人造島建設，認為這會讓人想起帝國時代的中國對越南的征服。他們也對中國在越南的影響力感到不滿，這主要體現在來自中國的貿易、旅遊和基礎設施項目日益增多。
1月初，北京將一架飛機降落在中國建造的一座人造島上，越南為此正式控訴中國侵犯其領土主權，也違反了最近簽署的一項互信協議。
因為在任期間越南出現了一些國企醜聞和一場削弱經濟的通貨膨脹，阮晉勇在經濟領域的成績單並不好看。但在使越南經濟獲得更多外國投資，參與更多競爭，以及加入TPP方面，他還是被廣泛看作越共內部最強有力的倡導者。
「在此之前，沒有哪個領導人在使越南國際化方面做過太多努力，但阮晉勇不同，他在這方面非常突出，」在河內經營一家化學貿易公司的阮越河(Nguyen Viet Ha)說。「過去，我們對中國的依賴有點多，現在更獨立一些，能接觸到西方的技術。」
在美國接受教育、給阮晉勇及其他總理就經濟政策提供建議的商人裴基成(Bui Kien Thanh)承認，這類政策使阮晉勇同樣容易受到指責。「很多人會說阮晉勇是美國的盟友之類，不過也就說說而已，」他說。「阮晉勇很清楚，不和美國建立良好關係，很難實現經濟開放。」
其他分析人士和商業領袖表示，即便阮晉勇被迫退休，越南和美國的關係依然會持續加深。他們表示，阮富仲在去年7月訪問美國，這是越共領導人第一次訪美，也是一個清晰的信號，顯示越共內部各個派別日益達成共識，認為越美兩國建立更加良好的關係符合越南的國家利益。
前美國駐越南大使邁克拉克表示，自石油鑽井平台爭端以來，越南和中國的關係「降了好幾度」。他還表示，「我認為，不管哪一派」在黨代會選舉中「獲勝，這種狀況都不會很快改觀。」
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