台灣台北——過去十年的大部分時間裡，李訓華(Jason Lee)都在台灣擅長的一個領域裡打拚。他與三位朋友一起成立了一家動畫工作室，大量製作電視節目，並為遊戲和影片做特效。
然而，成本攀升、訂單枯竭，他們的公司在2011年關了門。幾年後，李訓華離開了台灣前往中國大陸，受聘在青島管理一間動畫工作室。五個月前，他在當地自立門戶。他手下有20名員工，還希望在下個月的春節假期過後再擴大一倍。這樣的擴張他在台灣根本無法想像。
「我個人覺得這是一件好事，」現年38歲的李訓華說。
如今，有數十萬台灣人在海外謀生。然而，對他們當中許多人和李訓華而言不錯的事情，對台灣來說或許卻並不美妙。這裡的人越來越擔心，不斷增長的兩岸貿易和投資規模，加上大批台灣人赴大陸工作，使得台灣對中國的依賴達到危險程度。中國宣稱台灣島為其領土的一部分，並一直試圖利用經濟力量來換取影響力。
這樣的擔憂助長了2014年反對執政黨國民黨的
大規模抗議活動。眼下，國民黨面臨周六在總統和立法院選舉中雙雙遭受重創的可能性。
與過去的選舉一樣，今次的關鍵政治議題是中國，以及台灣的未來究竟是在與體量龐大的鄰居發展更緊密的關係上，還是在其自治身份上。不過，經過八年不斷增強的貿易紐帶，在國民黨及其重要競爭對手民主進步黨的候選人，辯論向中國靠近的得與失，這個問題帶上了濃厚的經濟色彩。
民進黨
提名的總統候選人蔡英文(Tsai Ing-wen)目前在民意調查中遙遙領先。民調數據還顯示，她領導的政黨相當有望首次奪得立法院的控制權，使其掌握前所未有的權力來推動自身的政策。
競選期間，蔡英文批評國民黨令台灣經濟一蹶不振，聲稱該黨未能在面對來自中國大陸的由國家支持的競爭中保護本土企業。
「台灣的創新創業環境越來越差，企業人才不斷外移，被中國大陸企業大量挖角，經濟越拼越倒退，在國外的年輕人找不到回家的路，」她上月表示。
國民黨提名的總統候選人朱立倫(Eric Chu)則提出，中國對台灣經濟的未來依然至關重要。不過，隨着這裡經濟增長陷入停滯，選民似乎對延續這條路心存疑慮。此外，朱立倫的選舉前景還受到第三方政黨的候選人宋楚瑜(James Soong)的損耗。後者於2000年與國民黨分道揚鑣。
人才外流成為了台灣經濟困境的一個象徵。這裡的分析人士和經濟學者表示，問題在於，良好工作崗位的缺乏與低收入水平迫使許多人去海外尋求更好的機會。
中國大陸對人才的吸引力最大，把其他地方遠遠甩在了身後。對移民數據進行的一項研究顯示，2013年，台灣2300萬人口中有60萬人在海外生活的時間超過六個月，其中四分之三在大陸。還有一些估算的數據稱，有至少百萬台灣人在海外謀生。
過去，許多人去大陸是為了打理台灣開設的工廠。然而現在，讓他們前往大陸的工作越來越多地出現在動畫這樣的創意行業，或是台灣技術更先進的集成電路設計這樣的高科技領域。
「我們關心的一件事是，中國發展的時候，他們想要從台灣的關鍵行業招募更多人，」中華民國國家發展委員會副主任委員高仙桂(Kao Shien-quey)表示。「為了發展平面屏幕、LED、LCD和太陽能，他們過來帶走台灣的人才。現在我們擔心他們想發展集成電路，而發展這個他們就會帶走很多人才。」
台灣經濟從人才去海外工作的現象中獲得了一些好處，比如在硅谷謀生的人返回家鄉協助科技企業的發展。然而越來越多出現的情況是，台灣人才在幫助中國發展其本土行業，而不是把新技能帶回台灣。
「我們不能怪別人想吸引台灣人才，」台灣經濟研究院研究員盧俊偉(Lu Jiun-wei)認為。該機構研究了台灣勞動力外流的問題。「我們要保證自身的政策足以留住他們。如果我們的政策比較好，有更多人留下來，那麼台灣的未來就會更光明。」
2012年選舉期間，國民黨將自身描繪為能夠更好地處理經濟問題及台灣與中國大陸的關係。在馬英九總統治下，台灣與大陸簽訂了二十多項協議，兩岸貿易額在他執政的八年間也攀升了逾50%。
可是，台灣民眾並未普遍感受到這些好處；工資水平近年來徘徊不前。而且，隨着中國經濟增長的放緩，台灣經濟一落千丈，剛剛過去的這個季度還發生了萎縮。2015年的GDP增長率估計將僅為1%。
國民黨最初的總統候選人在競選初期表現糟糕，於是在去年10月
遭替換。該黨繼續強調，與中國之間的關係對發展台灣經濟十分重要。
去年11月，馬英九與中國國家主席習近平舉行了
歷史性會晤。朱立倫將此事及兩岸之前達成的多項協議當做國民黨的接觸政策卓有成效的例證。
民進黨質疑習馬會是
為了影響本月的選舉。不過，此事並沒有在民調中激起什麼漣漪，蔡英文的領先優勢在最近幾周里相當穩定。
「國民黨沒有照顧好我們中產，」現年30歲的凌師豪（Ling Shih-how，音）說。他在台北從事建築材料銷售工作。「他們只管企業，希望靠中國。實際情況是：在出口方面，我們應該望向歐洲和美國，應該做些平衡。」
凌先生表示他計劃投給蔡英文，而這將是他首次支持民進黨的總統候選人。
民進黨與國民黨候選人均提出，必須重振台灣的創新能力。不過，蔡英文更注重社會福利保障，比如為有經濟困難的人提供廉價住宅。
所有候選人都表示貿易對台灣經濟至關重要。不過，朱立倫稱，作為台灣最大的貿易夥伴，中國大陸應繼續成為政策重點，而蔡英文強調的策略則是發展與包括美國在內的更大範圍的夥伴國家的貿易關係。
諾丁漢大學當代中國研究學院(School of Contemporary Chinese Studies at the University of Nottingham)的副教授蘇利文(Jonathan Sullivan)表示，如果上台，民進黨追求這一目標的能力將受到中國的限制——中國實際上擁有台灣參與任何國際協議的否決權。
「在這整個競選活動中，他們的經濟關注點一直更多地放在一些社會經濟議題上，比如增加人們負擔得起的社會福利住宅和提高畢業生薪水，」他說。「這些政策比較契合當下的時代思潮，但我不覺得民進黨能夠，或者說正在推動台灣經濟領域實現徹底的變革。」
王霜舟(Austin Ramzy)是《紐約時報》記者。
翻譯：黃錚、常青
TAIPEI, Taiwan — Jason Lee spent most of the last decade building a business in a field for which
Taiwan is famous. With three friends, he founded an animation studio here, churning out TV shows and special effects for games and films.
But costs rose and orders dried up, and they closed up shop in 2011. A few years later, Mr. Lee left Taiwan for mainland
China, where he was hired to run an animation studio in the city of Qingdao. Five months ago, he started his own studio there. He has 20 employees, a number he hopes to double after the Chinese New Year next month — growth he could not have imagined in Taiwan.
“Personally, I see this as a good thing,” Mr. Lee, 38, said.
But what is good for Mr. Lee, and for many of his hundreds of thousands of compatriots working overseas, may not be as good for Taiwan. People here are increasingly worried that growing cross-strait trade and investment and the large number of people from Taiwan working on the mainland are making Taiwan dangerously dependent on China, which claims the island as part of its territory and has tried to use its economic clout to buy influence.
As in past elections, the crucial political issue is China, and whether Taiwan’s future lies in a closer relationship with its giant neighbor or an autonomous identity. But after eight years of increasing trade ties, the question has taken on a deeply economic tone, as candidates from the Kuomintang and its main rival, the Democratic Progressive Party, debate the risk and reward of China’s embrace.
Tsai Ing-wen, the D.P.P.’s
presidential nominee, holds a wide lead in opinion surveys. Polls also indicate that her party has a strong chance of taking control of the legislature for the first time, giving it unprecedented power to push through its policies.
During the campaign, Ms. Tsai has criticized the Kuomintang over Taiwan’s weakening economy, saying it had not protected domestic enterprises from state-sponsored Chinese competition.
“Taiwan’s environment for innovation and entrepreneurship is getting worse and worse,” she said last month. “Workers are going overseas, and a huge number are being poached by Chinese enterprises. Many of our young people abroad can’t find a way home.”
The Kuomintang’s presidential nominee, Eric Chu, has argued that China remains important to Taiwan’s economic future. But as the island’s economic growth has ground to a standstill, voters appear cautious about continuing that path. Mr. Chu’s electoral prospects have also been hurt by a third-party candidate, James Soong, who split from the Kuomintang in 2000.
Brain drain has emerged as a symbol of Taiwan’s economic woes. The issue, analysts and economists here say, is that a lack of good jobs and low pay drive many to seek better opportunities overseas.
China is by far the biggest magnet for that talent. A study of immigration records found that in 2013, 600,000 of Taiwan’s 23 million people spent more than half of the year abroad. Three of every four were in China. Other estimates say that one million or more people from Taiwan work overseas.
In the past, many people went to China to manage Taiwan-owned factories. But now, the jobs leading them there are increasingly in creative industries like animation, or in high-tech fields like integrated circuit design, where Taiwan has more advanced technology.
“One thing we’re concerned about is that as China grows, they want to recruit more people from key industries in Taiwan,” said Kao Shien-quey, deputy minister of the island’s National Development Council. “To develop flat screens, LEDs, LCDs and
solar power, they came and lured away people from Taiwan. Now we’re worried that they want to develop integrated circuits, and to develop those they will take away a lot of people.”
Taiwan’s economy has experienced some benefits from workers going abroad, such as when people who had been employed in Silicon Valley returned to help develop technology companies. But increasingly, those workers are helping China develop its own domestic industries, rather than bringing new skills to Taiwan.
“We can’t blame others for trying to attract Taiwanese talent,” said Lu Jiun-wei, a research fellow at the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, which conducted the study of the Taiwan work force abroad. “We have to make sure our policies are sufficient to keep them here. If our policies are good and more people will stay here, then Taiwan’s future will be better.”
During the 2012 election, the Kuomintang portrayed itself as better able to handle the economy and relations with mainland China. Under President Ma Ying-jeou, Taiwan reached more than 20 agreements with China, and trade between the two sides climbed more than 50 percent over his eight years in office.
But the benefits were not widely felt in Taiwan, where wage growth stagnated in recent years. And as China’s growth has slowed, Taiwan’s economy has plummeted, contracting over the most recent quarter. Gross domestic product growth for 2015 is expected to be just 1 percent.
The Kuomintang, which
switched presidential candidates in October after its initial nominee stumbled badly early in the campaign, has continued to promote the importance of ties with China for developing Taiwan’s economy.
Mr. Ma held
a historic meeting with China’s president,
Xi Jinping, in Singapore
in November, and Mr. Chu has cited that and the previous agreements between the two sides as proof that the Kuomintang’s engagements have produced results.
The D.P.P. questioned whether the meeting with Mr. Xi was
an effort to influence this month’s election. But it had little effect on the polls in any event, and Ms. Tsai’s lead has remained steady in recent weeks.
“The Kuomintang hasn’t taken care of those of us in the middle class,” said Ling Shih-how, 30, who sells construction materials in Taipei. “They only take care of corporations, and they want to rely on China. The truth is: For exports, we should look to Europe and the U.S. We should have some balance.”
Mr. Ling said he planned to vote for Ms. Tsai, the first time that he has supported a D.P.P. candidate for president.
Both the D.P.P. and Kuomintang candidates have spoken about the need to revive Taiwan’s capacity for innovation. But Ms. Tsai has put a heavier emphasis on social safety nets, like affordable housing units for people who have suffered in the downturn.
The candidates all say that trade will remain critical to the economy. But while Mr. Chu says China, Taiwan’s biggest trading partner, should continue to take priority, Ms. Tsai has stressed a strategy of developing trade with a broader set of partners, including the United States.
If it takes power, the D.P.P.’s ability to pursue that goal will be limited by China, which has a de facto veto on Taiwan’s participation in international agreements, said Jonathan Sullivan, an associate professor at the School of Contemporary Chinese Studies at the University of Nottingham.
“Through the campaign, the economic focus has been more on the socioeconomic issues, like increasing provision of affordable social housing and raising graduate salaries,” he said. “These policies capture the zeitgeist, but I do not see the D.P.P. being able to, or promoting, a radical overhaul of the economy.”
沒有留言:
張貼留言