最不可靠的中国经济数据

Chinese data

Lex 2009-11-12

Another slew of Chinese data, another load of raised eyebrows. Evidence of accelerating retail sales or fixed-asset investment might be taken at face value elsewhere, but these are two of China's least reliable indicators. Seasoned China-watchers accept that not everything adds up in the data-gathering business. The total of first-half gross domestic product figures released individually by China's 31 provinces and municipalities, for example, was almost 10 per cent higher than the national figure put out by the National Bureau of Statistics. But some inputs to those sums are flakier than others.

A 33.1 per cent year-on-year rise in urban fixed-asset investment, as reported by the NBS on Wednesday, does not necessarily mean that investment rose by 33.1 per cent. As John Makin of the American Enterprise Institute think-tank points out, “investment” by central-government planners is counted on the basis of funds disbursed for projects, regardless of whether those funds have actually been spent. Similarly, retail sales figures – up 16.2 per cent – are not a useful proxy for household consumption as they basically track shipments to retailers, lumping in all kinds of government and corporate spending.

China's growth is no illusion. Data on industrial value-added, which correlates increasingly closely to energy consumption, shows an unequivocal rise in output. And as long as the data-collecting process is consistent, it is the trend that matters. But the problem with counting money transfers as investment, or mixing up institutional spending with consumer, is that there may be big lags in the impact of stimulus efforts. That is as good an explanation as any for China's continuing reluctance to tighten monetary conditions explicitly, amid mounting evidence of asset inflation: urban property prices were up almost 4 per cent in October, the biggest monthly increase in 14 months. Whatever the data may say, recovery cannot yet be taken for granted.

Lex专栏：最不可靠的中国经济数据

英国《金融时报》 Lex专栏 2009-11-12

又一批中国经济数据，又一片惊叹之声。在其它地方，人们也 许能够放心地相信零售或固定资产投资加快增长的证据，但在中国，这两项数据是最不可靠的指标。经验丰富的观察人士相信，在中国的统计中，并非每个单项加起 来就能得出正确的总数，比如，中国31个省市自治区各自发布的上半年GDP数据，加起来要比国家统计局发布的全国数据高出近10%。但在那些总数中，有一 些单项数据相对更经不起推敲。

国家统计局周三报告城镇固定资产投资同比增长33.1%，未必意味着投资真的上升33.1%。正如智库美国企业研究所(American Enterprise Institute)的约翰·马金(John Makin)所指出的，中央政府规划者是根据为项目调拨的资金来计算“投资”的，而不考虑这些资金实际上是否已经支出。类似地，零售额上升16.2%，也 并不能有效代表家庭消费，因为这些数据主要追踪的是厂家向零售商的发货量，包括各类政府及企业支出。

中国的经济增长并非幻觉。与能源消耗量关联日趋密切的工业增加值数据，显示产出有不容置疑的增长。再说，只要数据收集过程是一致的，那么重要的就是 趋势。但是，把资金转移算作投资、或者把机构与消费者支出混为一谈的问题在于，政府刺激努力的影响可能存在严重滞后。这同样能够很好地说明，在资产价格通 胀证据与日俱增的情况下，中国为何仍不愿明确收紧货币环境。10月份，中国城市楼价上涨近4%，达到14个月来最大月度增幅。不管数据怎么说，人们都还不 能把复苏当作一件板上钉钉的事。