消費貸款拖欠數量大增，中國追債人積極催款 |
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Trade war drains China's social security system
Efforts to lower the corporate burden ended up shrinking the pension
貿易戰耗盡了中國的社會保障體系
減輕企業負擔的努力最終導致養老金縮水
美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）和中國副總理劉鶴（Liu He）於1月15日在白宮達成一項“第一階段”貿易協議。隨著公司繳款減少，貿易戰給中國的社會保險計劃造成了損失。 ©路透社
日經記者ISSAKU HARADA
2020年6月13日JST
北京-中國的社會保險計劃還不健全。
與美國的貿易戰和冠狀病毒大流行迫使政府反复提供慷慨的刺激措施，以減輕中國公司的社會福利貢獻負擔。
但這導致了較小的養老金儲備。自從1998年以來，2020財年的社會保障支出將首次超過收入，創下了新的記錄。
對於中國的社會安全網來說，這是一個非常不幸的時刻，因為中國自己的嬰兒潮一代中有很大一部分在2022年達到退休年齡。
中國為公民提供了七種計劃，包括養老金，醫療保險和工傷，失業或生育保險。收據存放在普通信託基金中，該基金向受益人付款。
但根據上個月全國人大批准的2020年預算，普通基金的收入將減少4％，至人民幣7.73萬億元（約合1.09萬億美元），而支出將躍升10％，至人民幣8.23萬億元。
接近5000億元人民幣的赤字，到年底將使社會保險基金的餘額減少5％，至8.9萬億元人民幣，這是自1998年獲得可比數據以來的首次縮水。
中國人口老齡化導致應享權利支出激增。社會保險收入主要來自僱員和雇主的繳費以及政府補貼。儘管預計補貼將增長12％，達到創紀錄的2.16萬億元，但捐款將下降9％，至5.24萬億元。
捐款減少與中美貿易戰有關。為了幫助公司擺脫關稅之苦，北京於2019年5月將公司支付的最高費用等級從20％降低至員工工資的16％。結果，去年公司減少的社會福利支出減少了4252億元。
今年，新的冠狀病毒在全國蔓延之後，採取了類似的措施。政府放寬了養老金和失業保險金，特別是對小型，微型和中型企業。僅在2月至6月，社會保險收入就減少了5,000億元。
救濟措施原定於6月底到期，但總理李克強在上個月發表政府工作報告時宣布將延期至12月。
同時，中國人口老齡化沒有跡象顯示放緩。 1962年之後，該國經歷了嬰兒潮，那是大躍進運動的最後一年，這場運動導致了大規模的飢餓。那年出生的人將在2022年達到60歲的退休年齡。
老年夫婦在北京騎三輪車。未來幾年，中國養老金領取者的人數將接近3億，這給國家的保險箱帶來了壓力。 ©路透社
2010年進行的一項調查發現，1962年至1976年之間，每年有超過2000萬人出生。這相當於進行了不少於15年的大規模退休，從而引發了國家養老金和醫療保健支出的激增。
今年政府對社會福利計劃的補貼將超過國防開支的70％。權利支出正緊縮中國國庫，正像鄰國日本那樣。
中央政府沒有透露社會保險財務的廣闊前景。中國社會科學院發布了城鎮職工養老基金的首個估算。由國家支持的智囊團做出了令人震驚的預測，儲量將在2035年觸底。
專家們紛紛提出提高退休年齡，但是這個想法是老年人中的第三條鐵軌。而且，如果年長的工人必須待更長的時間，初次求職的人可能會發現自己被冠狀病毒襲擊的勞動力市場擋在了門外。
李在其政府工作報告中發誓要擴大國家對健康保險的財政支持，並增加養老金支出，而不管其預算問題如何。甚至在權利改革方面，中國的一黨制國家也被迫採取政治平衡行動。
為了維持將近3億的養老金領取者的數量，共產黨可能不得不考慮遏制軍事和家庭安全開支-這兩個方面支持了黨的統治。這樣的結果可能會影響亞洲的長期安全平衡，以及中國當前權力結構的可持續性。
Trade war drains China's social security system
Efforts to lower the corporate burden ended up shrinking the pension pot
BEIJING -- China's social insurance program is not aging well.
The trade war with U.S. and the coronavirus pandemic forced the government to repeatedly offer generous stimulus to ease Chinese companies' burden of social welfare contributions.
But this led to a smaller pension pot. Social security expenditures for fiscal 2020 are set to exceed revenues for the first time since 1998, creating red ink.
This comes at a particularly unfortunate time for the country's social safety net as a large chunk of China's own baby boom generation reaches retirement age in 2022.
China offers seven types of programs to citizens including pensions, medical insurance and insurance covering work injuries, unemployment or maternity. Receipts are collected in a general trust fund that disburses payments to beneficiaries.
But revenue into the general fund will shrink 4% to 7.73 trillion yuan ($1.09 trillion) under the 2020 budget approved at last month's National People's Congress, while spending will jump 10% to 8.23 trillion yuan.
The deficit of nearly 500 billion yuan would cut the balance in the social insurance fund by 5% to 8.9 trillion yuan at the end of the year, the first such shrinkage since comparable data became available in 1998.
China's aging population has caused entitlement payouts to surge. Social insurance receipts originate mainly from contributions paid by employees and employers, as well as government subsidies. Though subsidies are projected to grow 12% to a record 2.16 trillion yuan, contributions will fall 9% to 5.24 trillion yuan.
The drop in contributions is related to the U.S.-China trade war. To help companies struggling from tariffs, Beijing in May 2019 reduced the top fee bracket paid by corporations to 16% of employee wages, down from 20%. As a result, companies paid 425.2 billion yuan less in social welfare contributions last year.
Similar measures followed after the novel coronavirus epidemic swept through the country this year. The government eased pension and unemployment contributions, especially for small, micro and midsize enterprises. A sum of 500 billion yuan was wiped out from social insurance receipts between February and June alone.
The relief measures were slated to expire at the end of June, but Premier Li Keqiang announced an extension to December when he delivered the government work report last month.
Meanwhile, the aging of China's population shows no sign of slowing. The country experienced a baby boom after 1962, the final year of the Great Leap Forward campaign that caused mass starvation. Those born in that year will reach the retirement age of 60 in 2022.
Elderly couples ride tricycles in Beijing. The number of Chinese pensioners will approach 300 million in future years, putting pressure on the nation's coffers. © Reuters
Over 20 million people were born each year between 1962 and 1976, a survey conducted in 2010 found. That equates to mass retirements taking place for no fewer than 15 years, sparking a surge in state pension and health care payouts.
This year's government subsidies to the social welfare program will exceed defense spending by 70%. Entitlement spending is on track to squeeze China's treasury, much like it does in neighboring Japan.
The central government does not disclose extended outlooks for social insurance finances. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences has published a first-of-its-kind estimate for the urban worker pension fund. The state-backed think tank delivered a shocking forecast that reserves will scrape bottom in 2035.
Experts have floated raising the retirement age, but the idea is a third rail among senior citizens. And if older workers must stay on the job longer, first-time job seekers may find themselves frozen out of a labor market slammed by the coronavirus.
In his government work report, Li vowed to expand state financial support for health insurance and raise pension payouts, regardless of the budget implications. Even China's one-party state is forced into a political balancing act when it comes to entitlement reforms.
To sustain a population of pensioners that will approach 300 million, the Communist Party might have to consider curbs on military and domestic security spending -- two areas that have propped up party rule. Such an outcome may affect the long-term security balance in Asia, as well as the sustainability of China's current power structure.
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