China's not happy.
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How China Lost Taiwan
By NICK FRISCH February 3, 2016
觀點
回不去了：蔡英文與她的台灣的不歸路
傅理寧 2016年2月3日
TAIPEI, Taiwan — On a drizzly Tuesday night earlier this month, Chen Li-hung, a celebrity news television host, strode onto a stage in Changhua, in central Taiwan, and launched into a passionate speech, feeding red meat to his Democratic Progressive Party’s assembled faithful.
台灣台北——上月初的一個下着細雨的周二晚上，著名電視新聞主播陳立宏(Chen Li-hung)登上台灣中部彰化縣的舞台，發表了一場慷慨激昂的演講，振奮鼓動了集會現場的民進黨支持者。
“My parents are from mainland China,” he told the crowd. “Yet I was born in Taiwan. I grew up in Taiwan. So why did the teachers in school tell me I am still Chinese? Since my youth, I have felt that I am not Chinese, I am Taiwanese!” He ripped into the incumbent president, Ma Ying-jeou. “Eight years ago, President Ma won himself a pretty nice electoral victory, but he is walking us closer and closer to China, and has Taiwan gotten any better?”
「我是外省第二代。」他對台下群眾講道，「我出生在台灣、長大在台灣、生孩子在台灣。不明白什麼老師都告訴我們，我們還是中國人？從小我就深深覺得，我不是中國人！我是台灣人！」他狠狠鞭撻現任總統馬英九。「八年前，馬英九選得很好，很漂亮。可是他親中，越往中國越來越走，你看台灣有越來越好嗎？」
For hours, speakers like Mr. Chen raised the crowd to a fever pitch. Then Tsai Ing-wen, the party’s presidential nominee, arrived to cool them down.
連續幾小時，陳立宏和其他演講者把群眾激情推向高峰。然後，民進黨總統候選人蔡英文現身，讓觀眾變得冷靜。
Ulet Ifansasti/Getty Images
蔡英文在1月16日的大選中贏得了壓倒性的勝利。
Ms. Tsai, a former law professor and trade negotiator, let her surrogates fire up the base during the election campaign that ended on Jan. 16 in victory for her and her party. She knew that if voters detected too much populism, they would have turned on her. And she realized that Beijing and Washington watch her words closely.
曾任法律教授和商貿談判專家的蔡英文，在選舉期間讓她的競選團隊帶動群眾的熱情擁護，終在1月16日替自己和民進黨取得勝利。她深切明白，若讓選民覺得她過於靠近民粹主義，他們將離她而去。她亦知道，北京和華盛頓都密切關注自己所說的每句話。
The range in performances between Mr. Chen and Ms. Tsai helps explain the Democratic Progressive Party’s crushing margin of victory two weeks ago over Mr. Ma’s Kuomintang party, which lost both the presidency and, for the first time, Parliament. The rally highlighted why, with this election, China has lost Taiwan for good.
陳立宏和蔡英文的不同取態有助說明為何民進黨於三周前能夠取得壓倒性勝利，既在總統選舉里打敗國民黨，亦奪取了立法院的「過半會」主導權。這次集會也讓我們清楚看見，經歷這場選舉之後，中國將永遠失去台灣。
When the Kuomintang was defeated in a civil war by Mao’s Communists in 1949, its leadership retreated to Taiwan with millions of mainlander refugees like Mr. Chen’s parents, establishing an independent authoritarian government that gave way to democracy in the 1990s. Since 1949, Beijing has claimed Taiwan as a wayward province that must be reunited with the mainland, peacefully if possible but by force if necessary. The United States is Taiwan’s security guarantor, but also wishes to avoid offending Beijing and has been unsympathetic to Taiwanese leaders who rock the boat. Taiwan’s voters punish candidates who needlessly provoke China, or alienate Washington.
1949年，國民黨在中國內戰中被毛澤東的共產黨打敗，隨後退守台灣，包括陳立宏父母在內的數百萬難民也一同來到台灣。國民黨在台灣建立了一個獨立於中國的威權政府，直到20世紀90年代開始建立民主制度。自1949年以來，北京一直把台灣當作一個不聽話的省份，主張台灣與大陸必須和平統一，否則，使用武力亦在所不惜。美國是台灣的安全擔保人，但是美國也不想激怒北京，因此並不同情那些無謂地去惹麻煩的台灣領導人。而台灣選民也會懲罰那些故意挑釁中國，或疏遠華盛頓的候選人。
Beijing has pursued a decades-long strategy of patience and economic courtship, hoping that Taiwan would peacefully rejoin the mainland. And the Taiwanese do want stable, functional ties with China. Polls show most Taiwanese favor the status quo of de facto independence, without any official declaration that would enrage Beijing and possibly provoke an invasion.
在過去的幾十年，北京一直保持耐心，運用經濟吸引的戰略，希望台灣和平回歸大陸。而台灣人確實希望與中國保持穩定、務實的關係。民意調查顯示，大多數台灣人偏向支持目前實質上的獨立現狀，不希望因為正式的獨立宣言惹怒北京，從而可能引發戰爭。
But with the mainland’s economic miracle running aground, many Taiwanese are questioning the wisdom of lashing themselves to the mast. The Taiwanese worry that Mr. Ma’s rapprochement with Beijing has gotten too close, without enough trickle-down benefits to average Taiwanese. A free-trade bill that would have opened sensitive industries, such as media, to mainland Chinese ownership, stalled in Parliament in 2014 amid student protests, which became known as the Sunflower Movement.
但是隨着中國大陸的經濟奇蹟擱淺，很多台灣人開始質疑，依靠中國的策略是否正確。台灣人擔心馬英九與北京走得太近，而所得利益不足以惠及所有普通民眾。2014年，一項可能向中國大陸開放媒體等敏感行業的服貿協議未能在立法院通過，原因是遭遇了被稱為「太陽花運動」的學生抗議活動。
Meanwhile, the Taiwanese see an increasingly repressive mainland government across the strait — and want no part of it. President Xi Jinping’s crackdown on dissent and nationalist appeals to the glory of Chinese culture are uncomfortable reminders of Taiwan’s own experiences under martial law.
與此同時，台灣人目睹北京政府愈趨高壓管治，遂更不願與之為伍。習近平主席打壓異見，並運用民族主義手段，訴諸中國文化的過往輝煌打動民眾，反讓台灣人回憶起其戒嚴時期的往事。
But it was the sentiment expressed by Mr. Chen during the rally that suggests why, unless Beijing resorts to force, the China-Taiwan divorce could be permanent. Polls show that the generation of islanders who identify as “Chinese” is fading, and more people are identifying themselves as “Taiwanese.” Decades of de facto independence have whetted Taiwanese appetites for the real thing. Polls show most Taiwanese are unwilling to rejoin even a democratic China.
陳立宏在集會上表達的情緒恰恰說明，除非北京真正動武，否則海峽兩岸的關係將永久離異。民意調查顯示，認同「中國人」身份的一代島民正在消失，而越來越多的人認同自己是「台灣人」。數十年的實質獨立狀態讓台灣人渴望徹底實現獨立。民意調查顯示，即便中國實現民主制度，大多數台灣人也不願意回歸中國。
These feelings will deepen as a younger generation of Taiwanese finds its political voice. Indigenous identity and attachment to liberal civic values are strongest among the increasingly assertive youth, whose Sunflower Movement spawned the New Power Party, which in coalition with Ms. Tsai’s Democratic Progressive Party toppled several Kuomintang incumbents in the election.
隨着年輕一代的台灣人開始掌握政治話語權，這種感受正逐漸深入人心。本土身份認同和公民社會價值觀在有主見的青年群體中最為突出。太陽花運動孕育了時代力量黨的誕生，它與蔡英文的民進黨聯手，在選舉中打敗了多位國民黨的現任議員。
Still, while Taiwanese may increasingly identify with a unique local culture — and the passion of someone like Mr. Chen — for now they prefer Ms. Tsai’s more measured public persona. A cerebral technocrat, she is different from the earthier elders in her party, some of whom started their political careers in Kuomintang prisons.
雖然台灣民眾可能日益加強對獨特的當地文化的認同——以及像陳先生這樣的激情——但是他們目前仍偏向支持蔡英文謹慎的公眾形象。作為一位擁有書生氣的行政精英，她不同於民進黨內較為草根質樸的前輩，其中一些人在政治生涯的早期更進過國民黨的監獄。
Even as Ms. Tsai’s surrogates played the identity card, her campaign stressed economic competence and promised no formal independence, a position meant to avoid offending Beijing and Washington. Yet Ms. Tsai’s party platform still advocates independence, and her victory will give her power to entrench Taiwan’s separateness with subtle policy tweaks.
儘管代表蔡英文的團隊大打身份認同牌，她的選戰策略仍然強調經濟競爭力，並許諾不會追求正式的獨立，以避免激怒北京和華盛頓。不過，蔡主席的民進黨黨綱仍然支持獨立，而勝利將賦予她權力，通過微妙的政策調整，加強台跟中國大陸的實踐分離。
The Pacific Rim’s shifting politics may tilt Washington’s calculus as well. Since the Nixon administration, Washington has prioritized a realpolitik relationship with Beijing over any attachment to Taiwan. America’s current stance toward China’s claims on Taiwan is implicit acquiescence. But Beijing’s growing assertiveness along its periphery has raised alarms for American allies in Tokyo, Seoul and Manila, all of whom are watching to see how China tests America’s defense commitments to Taiwan.
環太平洋的政治格局變化亦可能影響華盛頓的戰略盤算。自從尼克松執政以來，華盛頓就把與北京的現實政治關係套用在對台關係之上。但是，北京對其周邊地區日益增強的領土主張讓美國的同盟感到警惕，東京、首爾和馬尼拉都在觀察中國如何試探美國對台灣的防衛承諾。
Ms. Tsai will not miss chances to remind Washington of the importance of that alliance. Her party intends to use its parliamentary majority to navigate Taiwan into the Trans-Pacific Partnership, an agreement that will hedge the island’s economy away from China and bind it more closely to America and its regional allies.
蔡英文不會放過任何機會提醒華盛頓彼此結盟的重要性。她的民進黨會試圖利用立法院多數席位的優勢讓台灣加入跨太平洋夥伴關係協議(Trans-Pacific Partnership)。該協議將有助於台灣在經濟上與中國保持距離，並加強與美國及其地區盟友的密切關係。
As Mr. Chen finished his stemwinder, the finale of Beethoven’s Fifth Symphony blasted over the speakers. “Protect our way of life, uphold our character ... come out to vote!” he implored. “Let’s give the Democratic Progressive Party a powerful start to its time in office!”
在陳立宏結束他的煽動性演說的同時，貝多芬第五交響曲響徹會場。「好好地守在台灣，好好地活着……一定要出來投票！」他懇求道，「讓民主進步黨可以展現好好的執政的開始！」
Taiwan’s voters have done just that, pushing Beijing’s dream of reunification even further from reach.
台灣的選民確實這樣做了，讓北京的和平統一夢想變得更加遙不可及。
本文内容版权归纽约时报公司所有，任何单位及个人未经许可，不得擅自转载或翻译。
傅理寧是耶魯大學東亞系博士生兼耶魯法學院研究員。
翻譯：紐約時報中文網
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