China joined an exclusive club last year: its economic output exceeded $10 trillion, making it only the second country to achieve that feat (America reached this level in 2000). When headlines appear about a 25-year low for China's economic growth, as they inevitably will, it is worth remembering that the Chinese economy is more than 25-times bigger than it was in 1990 http://econ.st/1yDxfKu
諾獎經濟學得主克魯明(Paul Krugman )今日在香港出席亞洲金融論壇時表示,對中國的情況感到害怕,而且是全球一個非常值得擔心的多事之地(trouble spot),更指中國當下的經濟結構轉型,很難避免出現一次嚴重的經濟衰退。
「如果在中國轉型期間,沒有出現一次嚴重的經濟衰退,我會感到驚訝。」克魯明表示,中國的經濟正由投資主導過渡至消費主導,而過程將會非常艱鉅。很可能出現的情況是,投資下滑,但消費的增長卻彌補不了。他又指,令他擔心的地方並非政策有機會出錯,而是調整涉及的規模實在太大。
據CNN報導,克魯明認為中國的最大挑戰之一,是內地在一孩政策下,人口開始老化,令勞動力支撐不了經濟的高增長。另一挑戰則是,國民不願消費,政府需要在刺激消費方面再加把勁,又或者提供完善的社會福利安全網,令人放心消費。
他又批評內地缺乏可靠的經濟數據,令外界很難追蹤中國的經濟進展,「我討厭中國能獲得這樣多的關注,尤其是它的數據很難分析。」
不過長遠而言,他認為未來還是屬於中國的,但這未來會較原先估計為長。
政府新聞署傍晚公布,克魯明傍晚應約到禮賓府與梁振英會面,探討經濟和金融議題。
https://www.thestandnews.com/finance/
From Espresso: Today’s publication of China’s GDP data for 2014 will confirm the country’s slowest growth in more than two decades. But the expected figure of 7.3%—still the fastest of any big economy—is hardly cause for concern. Slightly slower growth is part of the government’s plan for steering the economy onto a more sustainable path as it concentrates on structural reforms such as creating a social safety net. And these days the Chinese economy is so large that growth of⋯⋯
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