President Xi Jinping’s efforts to indefinitely extend his rule as China’s leader, announced on Sunday, raised fresh fears in China of a resurgence of strongman politics — and fears abroad of a new era of hostility and gridlock.
中國週日公布了國家主席習近平為無限期延長他作為領導人統治中國而採取的行動。這在中國國內引起了對強人政治再現的新擔憂，在國外則引起了對進入一個以敵意和僵局為特徵的新時代的憂慮。
Mr. Xi, who has been president since 2013, has tried to cultivate an image as a benevolent father figure who is working to promote China’s peaceful rise.
自2013年擔任國家主席以來，習近平一直試圖塑造一個致力於推動中國和平崛起的慈父形象。
But the ruling Communist Party’s decision to open a path to a third term for Mr. Xi heightened a sense of resentment in China among academics, lawyers, journalists and business executives. Many have watched warily as Mr. Xi has used his power to imprison scores of dissidents, stifle free speech and tighten oversight of the economy, the world’s second largest.
但執政的共產黨為習近平的第三屆任期開路的決定，加劇了學者、律師、記者和企業高管的憤慨。很多人警惕地看著習近平利用手中的權力囚禁大量異見人士、壓制言論自由，並加強對世界第二大經濟體中國的經濟管控。
Wu Qiang, a political analyst in Beijing who is critical of Mr. Xi, said the change to the Constitution would turn Mr. Xi into a “super-president.”
在北京，對習近平持批評意見的政治分析人士吳強（音）說，修改憲法會讓習近平變成「超級主席」。
廣告
“He will have no limits on his power,” he said.
「他的權力將不受限制，」他說。
Government censors rushed to block criticism of the decision. Internet memes depicted Mr. Xi as an emperor with no regard for the rule of law and showed a portrait of Mr. Xi replacing Mao’s hallowed image in Tiananmen Square. Another repurposed an ad for Durex condoms, adding a tag line — “Twice is not enough” — to poke fun at the idea of Mr. Xi angling for a third term.
政府審查機構急忙屏蔽這一決定受到的批評。網路米姆把習近平描述成一個不尊重法治的皇帝，並顯示習近平的畫像取代毛澤東的神聖畫像，出現在天安門廣場上。另一個米姆改編杜蕾斯(Durex)安全套的廣告，添加了一句廣告詞——「乾兩次，是不夠的」——來嘲弄習近平爭取第三屆任期的主意。
The party’s move comes as Mr. Xi has proclaimed an era of China’s greatness, when the country, he says, will take what he see as its rightful place as a top global power. Already, it is establishing military bases in the Western Pacific and Africa, building infrastructure across Asia, parts of Europe and Africa, and running what Mr. Xi hopes will be the world’s No. 1 economy within two decades or sooner.
共產黨作出這一舉動之際，正值習近平宣布中國進入一個偉大時代。他說，在這個時代，中國將取得他認為應有的全球大國地位。當下，中國已經開始在西太平洋和非洲建立軍事基地，在亞洲各地以及歐洲和非洲部分地區修建基礎設施。習近平還希望中國經濟在20年或更短的時間內成為世界頭號經濟體。
“China feels it is on the road to great power status and they want to perpetuate the trajectory they are on,” said David Finkelstein, director of China Studies at CNA, a research institute in Arlington, Va.
「中國感覺正走在通往大國地位的道路上，他們想讓這種軌跡永遠持續下去，」位於維吉尼亞州阿靈頓的研究機構美國海軍分析中心(Center for Naval Analyses，簡稱CNA)的中國研究主任馮德威(David Finkelstein)說。
去年，川普與習近平在北京的一個會議上會見了商界領袖後走下台。
去年，川普與習近平在北京的一個會議上會見了商界領袖後走下台。 DOUG MILLS/THE NEW YORK TIMES
Some analysts outside China said they worried that allowing Mr. Xi one-man rule might worsen an increasingly tense relationship between the United States and China.
中國境外的一些分析人士表示，他們擔心允許習近平進行獨裁統治可能會導致日趨緊張的美中關係進一步惡化。
After years of efforts by the United States to engage China on issues from market reform to climate change to human rights, the Trump administration turned on Beijing last December and called China a strategic competitor in its first national security document.
美國多年努力讓中國參與從市場改革到氣候變化，再到人權的問題，然而去年12月，川普政府令北京受到了刺激，並在其首份國家安全文件中稱中國是美國的戰略競爭對手。
廣告
Washington policymakers are preparing plans to impose tariffs on some Chinese imports, limit Chinese investments in the United States, particularly in technology, and spend more on the United States military to sustain its big advantage over the People’s Liberation Army.
華盛頓的政策制定者正在準備一些計劃，涉及對部分中國進口貨物徵收關稅，限制中國在美國的投資（尤其是科技領域），以及增加美國的軍費開支，以保持其相對於中國人民解放軍的巨大優勢。
In Congressional testimony earlier this month, the director of the F.B.I., Christopher Wray, described China as “not just a whole of government threat but a whole of society threat.”
本月早些時候在國會作證時，聯邦調查局(FBI)局長克里斯托弗·雷(Christopher Wray)稱中國「不僅是十足的政府威脅，還是十足的社會威脅」。
Mr. Trump may well see Mr. Xi’s consolidation of power as part of a global trend toward increasingly influential leaders, in which he might include himself along with Mr. Xi and Vladimir V. Putin, the Russian leader, said James Mann, the author of “The China Fantasy,” which contradicted the popular view that increasing prosperity would lead to political liberalization in China.
《中國幻想》(The China Fantasy)的作者詹姆斯·曼(James Mann)說，川普很可能認為習近平鞏固權力的舉動，屬於一種全球趨勢，即國家領導人的權力愈來愈大，他也許還會把自己、習近平和俄羅斯領導人弗拉基米爾·V·普丁(Vladimir V. Putin)歸入這個趨勢中。《中國幻想》一書還反駁了一個流行的觀點，即日漸繁榮會帶來中國的政治自由化。
“I’m guessing he will not deplore the lack of democracy in China, because that’s the sort of thing he rarely if ever does,” Mr. Mann said of Mr. Trump.
「我猜他不會譴責中國缺乏民主，因為這種事他即便做也是偶爾為之，」曼在提到川普時說。
Mr. Mann also said Mr. Trump might not have much problem with what Mr. Xi had accomplished.
曼還表示，川普對習近平已經實現的目標可能也不會有太多的異議。
“Over the past 14 months in office, Trump has almost never voiced the sort of support for our constitutional system that has been a staple in the statements of past presidents,” Mr. Mann said. “He does not respect the dignity or integrity of political opponents. He does not express support for the independence of the courts or the freedom of the press.”
「上台後的14個月裡，川普幾乎從來沒有表示過對我們憲法制度的支持，而在過去的總統聲明裡，這種支持是基本內容，」曼說。「他不尊重政敵的尊嚴和人格。他不對法院的獨立或言論自由表示支持。」
So if anything, he said, “I think Trump is probably jealous.”
如果真有什麼反應的話，他說，「我想川普可能會感到嫉妒。」
廣告
From Clinton to Bush to Obama, the prevailing belief was engagement with China would make China more like the West.
從柯林頓到布希再到歐巴馬，美國政界流行的觀點是，與中國接觸會讓中國變得更像西方。
Instead, as Mr. Mann predicted, China has gone in the opposite direction.
但正如曼所預言的，中國走向了相反的方向。
Shi Yinhong, professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing, said Mr. Xi likely did not care how the world would interpret his designation as a potential ruler in perpetuity.
位於北京的中國人民大學國際關係教授時殷弘說，習近平可能並不在乎世界會如何解讀他被任命為潛在的永久統治者。
With an unlimited term in office, Mr. Xi would almost certainly be in office beyond 2024, the year Mr. Trump would leave the White House if he won a second term.
如果贏得第二屆任期，川普將在2024年離開白宮；如果任期不受限制，習近平的任期幾乎肯定會持續到那之後。
“This objectively makes him stronger than Trump, who has no reason to like the change,” Mr. Shi said.
「這在客觀上會讓他比川普更強大，川普沒有理由喜歡這個變化，」時殷弘說。
At home, Mr. Xi will likely have considerable support for a third term, the result of a yearslong campaign to sideline political rivals and limit dissent. And nationalists cheered the decision, describing Mr. Xi as a singular force who could restore the glory of the nation.
在國內，習近平的第三屆任期可能會得到相當大的支持。這是一場持續數年的肅清政敵和限制異見人士運動的結果。民族主義者也為這一決定歡呼，稱習近平是一種能夠讓中國重現輝煌的非凡力量。
But as the news spread, readings of Hannah Arendt who wrote about the evils of totalitarian rule, and passages from George Washington, who retired after two terms as president, were discussed on social media in Chinese legal circles.
但隨著這一消息的傳播，中國法律界人士在社群媒體上討論起了漢娜·阿倫特(Hannah Arendt)關於極權主義統治危害的文章；以及喬治·華盛頓(George Washington)在兩屆總統任期結束後辭職的經歷。
廣告
Douglas H. Paal, a China expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the sudden move, before Mr. Xi even starts his second term next month, suggested that things were not “normal” within the Communist Party.
卡內基國際和平研究院(Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)的中國專家包道格(Douglas H. Paal)說，在習近平下月開始第二屆任期前，突如其來的這一舉動表明共產黨內部情況並不「正常」。
“This looks like forced marching, not normal order, so something is going on,” Mr. Paal said. “Xi is winning, but it will take sleuthing to find out what. These are not ordinary times.”
「這看起來像急行軍，而不是常態，所以說有事情發生，」包道格說。「習近平贏了，但需要偵查才能發現究竟是什麼。這不是平常時期。」
A series of visits by senior Chinese officials to Washington in the past month to try and persuade the Trump administration to slow down plans to introduce punitive measures that could result in a trade war had failed, Mr. Paal said.
包道格說，過去一個月裡，一系列中國高官到訪華盛頓，試圖說服川普政府放緩實施可能會引發貿易戰的懲罰措施計劃，但均以失敗告終。
“This could get complicated when controversial U.S. initiatives meet unconventional times in China,” he said.
「當美國有爭議的行動遭遇中國的非常時期時，情況可能會變得複雜，」他說。
Still, Mr. Xi is popular in many areas — his fans affectionately call him “Uncle Xi” — and his brand of folksy nationalism wins accolades, especially in rural areas. Experts said Mr. Xi would likely benefit from the perception in China that the rest of the world is chaotic.
但習近平在許多領域仍然廣受歡迎——仰慕者們親切地把他叫作「習大大」——而他樸實的民族主義招牌也為他贏得讚譽，尤其是在農村地區。專家表示，習近平可能會從中國認為世界其他地區都一片混亂的觀念中得益。
“With a population amazed at the incompetent mess in much of the rest of the world, and intoxicated by nationalism, for Xi to effect this change will be seen as reasonable,” said Kerry Brown, a professor of Chinese politics at King’s College, London.
「因為大批人民對世界大部分地區的無能混亂感到驚訝，又陶醉在民族主義之中，習近平實行這一改變將被視作合理，」倫敦國王學院(King\'s College London) 中國政治研究教授凱利·布朗(Kerry Brown)說道。
But Mr. Xi’s assumption of unfettered power may not work out the way he thinks, said Peter Jennings, executive director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, and a former senior Australian defense official.
但澳洲戰略政策研究所(Australian Strategic Policy Institute)的執行主任、澳洲前國防部高官彼得·詹寧斯(Peter Jennings)表示，習近平關於無限權力的想法可能不會像他設想的那樣實現。
廣告
“The risks to his personal fortunes are huge,” he said. “What if the People’s Liberation Army decides he should be cut loose?” And, he added, “What if growth slows more than expected?”
「他的個人命運有了很大風險，」他說。「要是中國人民解放軍決定脫離他怎麼辦？」他還補充說，「如果增長放緩超過預期呢？」
If Mr. Xi comes under pressure at home or abroad, he could become unpredictable, and even dangerous, Mr. Jennings said. The reach for more personal power could be the start of his downfall.
詹寧斯說，如果習近平在國內外受壓，他可能會變得難以預測，甚至變得危險。對更大的個人權力的追求可能是他垮台的開始。
“The West can take no comfort in that because Xi’s situation means he may take more risks in the South China Sea or over Taiwan,” he said. “He has nothing to lose and everything to gain by engaging in more Putin-like brinkmanship.”
「這不會給西方國家帶來任何安慰，因為習近平的處境意味著他可能會在南海或台灣問題上冒更大風險，」他說。「如果實施接近普丁式的邊緣政策，那麼他沒有什麼可以失去的，反而可以有所收穫。」
Moreover, he added, “Where does one ever see the ‘president for life’ model end well?”
此外，他補充說，「誰見過得到善終的『終身元首』呢？」