中印之爭
《每日電訊報》刊登一篇文章說隨著中國和印度之間的競爭加劇，印度瞄準了中國的石油供應。 報道說，印度軍方的決策者瞄上了連接太平洋和印度洋的馬六甲海峽，這裡是中國百分之80進口石油船隻必經的通道。 因此，馬六甲也被形容是中國的"薄弱環節"，文章說這裡有可能成為中印雙方未來矛盾對峙的舞台。 同時，文章還分析了雙方具有爭議的邊境線，以及雙方都試圖成為在亞洲最具影響力的國家。 文章接著說，中印雙方都在增加自己的國防開支，並且說如果中印真的交戰的話，印度有可能佔據馬六甲海峽的戰略優勢，因為印度可以掐斷中國的石油運輸通道，使中國處於癱瘓。
China and India have been on opposite sides since the Cold War
The Cold War made for strange alliances - and these have quickly changed since its demise.
The United States has increasingly found it has more in common with democratic India, previously a friend of the Soviet Union, than with its Cold War ally against Moscow, Communist China.
This crucial shift has left the two Asian giants on opposite geopolitical sides and brought their many differences into sharper focus.
Growth in trade, repeated visits by state leaders and declarations of a "win-win partnership", have failed to bridge the differences. China has settled its border disputes with every neighbour along its vast landmass, from Vietnam to Russia, with the sole exception of India.
This territorial dispute reached its nadir with a short but bloody frontier war, which China won in 1962.
The issues underlying that conflict have not gone away, and new grievances have been added. China still claims the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, which stands on its Himalayan border and contains important Tibetan Buddhist monasteries. Meanwhile, India says that China presently occupies 16,500 square miles of its territory in the high Himalayas.
These territorial wrangles came to the surface last year when China refused a visa for a member of an Indian trade delegation on the grounds that he came from Arunachal Pradesh and was theoretically a Chinese citizen. India then invited the Taiwanese opposition leader, now the island's president, Ma Ying-jeou, to visit.
India also fears China's close military co-operation with its traditional enemy, Pakistan. The two have joint weapons development projects, while China also provided Pakistan with nuclear and missile technology.
China objects to the shelter that India gives to the Dalai Lama. Beijing fears that despite India's official recognition of Chinese rule in Tibet, it secretly backs Tibetan independence.
Indian military analysts suspect that China's military deployments in Tibet are aimed not only at controlling the region, but also at supplying a future war front.
For its part, Beijing thinks that the US is trying to "encircle" it with stronger alliances with democratic powers, particularly India, Japan and Australia.
Washington's agreement to support India's civil nuclear programme, which had been off-limits since New Delhi's first test of a nuclear weapon in 1974, was seen as the latest sign that the US could find powerful friends in new places.
India targeting China's oil supplies
Military planners in India are eyeing a crucial junction of the world which serves as the conduit for 80 per cent of China's imported oil.
The Strait of Malacca, where the Indian Ocean joins the Pacific, is seen as China's Achilles' heel. These shipping lanes, vital for Beijing's energy supplies, could be the setting for any future confrontation between India and China.
The two giant powers are long-standing rivals who share a disputed 2,100-mile border and are waging a diplomatic struggle for influence in Asia. They fought a border war in 1962, which ended in victory for China and left Beijing in control of 16,500 square miles of territory claimed by India.
Both countries are increasing their defence budgets, with India's military spending rising by an average of 18 per cent in each of the past three years and now exceeding £15 billion.
If these tensions were ever to boil over into war, India would probably exploit a crucial advantage. Its navy, which eventually plans to deploy three aircraft carriers and two nuclear-powered attack submarines, would probably seek to close the Strait of Malacca to Chinese shipping through an increased presence. By cutting off the supply of oil, this could cripple China and prove the decisive move in any conflict.
"The most likely flashpoint would be along the border, but ultimately the decision in any war would be on the ocean," said Sheru Thapliyal, a retired Indian general in New Delhi who once commanded a division on the frontier with China.
"The Indian Ocean is where we could use our advantage to the maximum. If you want to choke China, the only way you can choke China is by using naval power."
With China's key vulnerability in mind, India has constructed a naval base within striking distance of the Strait of Malacca at Port Blair on the Andaman Islands. China has countered by installing military facilities of its own, complete with electronic monitoring and eavesdropping devices, on the nearby Coco Islands. These specks of land belong to Burma, a long-standing ally of China.
Beijing is now taking other steps to address what President Hu Jintao has called the country's "Malacca dilemma". With hugely ambitious infrastructure projects, China hopes to bypass the Strait of Malacca and eventually end its dependence on this vulnerable waterway for energy supplies.
On India's western flank, China is helping to build a new port in the Pakistani town of Gwadar. Thrust together by their shared rivalry with India, Pakistan and China are old allies.
Gwadar could eventually provide a base for Chinese warships. Or it may be used as the starting point for a pipeline travelling through Pakistan and carrying oil and gas into China itself. If so, Beijing could import energy from the Middle East using this route, bypassing the Strait of Malacca.
The same rationale may explain China's actions on India's eastern flank. A new port and pipeline terminal are being constructed at Kyauk Phyu on Burma's island of Ramree. This will be the starting point for a 900-mile pipeline, able to carry oil directly to Kunming, the capital of Yunnan province in southern China.
"They know that we could attempt to choke them completely and that's why they want these ports," said Vijay Kapoor, a retired general in New Delhi and former commandant of the Indian Army War College. "Their aim in all of this is to prevent us from being able to choke them."
China's moves are being closely watched in India, where the military establishment fears that Beijing's plans in Pakistan and Burma amount to a deliberate strategy of "encirclement". If China's navy acquires permanent bases in the Indian Ocean, tension will grow.
But Indian diplomats tend to believe these fears are exaggerated. They believe that China is motivated by nothing more than securing its economic boom and taking normal precautions against unforeseeable events.
王家英教授採訪錄音 
