2008年6月1日 星期日

新興市場新世紀──台灣

新興市場新世紀──台灣
新興市場新世紀──台灣
大塊文化/提供

我 第一次到台灣是在1977年,那時候我們住在曼谷,到台灣是為了拜訪友人。記憶中,我開著車經過鄉間,沿途看見的是一排排剛種好的蘋果樹,還有,我在台北 享用熱騰騰的火鍋,更以非常便宜的價格買了一套非常有名的百科全書。現在,以前的果樹林上蓋滿了建築物,摩天大樓裡開著許多別出心裁的餐廳,只要利用台灣 製的智慧手機,就能在手掌上找尋任何想要的資訊。還有,當年有誰曾料想到現在會有那麼多台灣商人,住在台灣企業巨型工廠林立的中國?

小型新興國家 也能是競爭力外銷者

台灣是全球經濟(與全球勢力)自工業革命以來,最深刻的變遷環境下的早期領導者和範例。200年前,「西方國家」從當時世界上最大經濟體──中國和印度 ──手中奪走了對全球經濟的掌控權。現在,潮流又在轉向了,全球經濟的重心正快速從已開發世界轉向新興市場。這股潮流正是起始於「亞洲四小龍」如台灣等 地,他們向整個世界證明,小型新興國家也可以成為有競爭力的外銷者。

過去一度處在全球經濟末稍部位的新興市場,現在卻扮演著核心的角色。台灣和韓國是最早期的範例,他們從窮國蛻變成中產階級經濟體,目前無論在消費、基礎建設、財富、科技甚至流行等層面都急起直追。

未來十年內,將有接近十億個新消費者是來自新興市場。改造全球局面的並不是「新經濟」,而是在無聲無息中奪走光彩的「新經濟體」(更確切的說,應該是「再」新興市場)。這只是個開始。

新興市場從附屬地轉變為未來主導者,並不僅止於貿易面。目前全世界有75%以上的外匯存底,是掌握在新興經濟體的央行手中。不過,世人比較不清楚的是,目 前這些新興市場的基礎建設支出已經超越美國或歐洲,而且他們的支出年度成長率高達20%,已開發世界的成長率卻低得可憐。

將有愈來愈多的下一個奇異公司和微軟公司是來自新興市場。目前《財星》雜誌全球500大企業中,有近70家公司是以新興市場為基地。我的書裡討論了25個突破萬難並順利躍上世界級地位的企業,其中有四個是台灣企業。

台積電是獨立晶圓廠的世界領導者,該公司製造精密半導體晶圓。宏達電是精密(且美觀)智慧手機和PDA的創新設計者。鴻海是眾多在中國從事主要生產活動的 台灣企業之一。目前該公司仍舊隱匿在大品牌的面紗之下,它不僅製造i-Phone,也生產HP電腦、Nokia手機和Sony的Playstation。

另外還有裕元,它是台灣的寶成企業所創辦,全世界賣出的五雙慢跑鞋裡,就有一雙是該公司製造的。

新興跨國企業 擁有本土優勢

在這些新興跨國企業當中,只有少數是仰賴廉價勞工或天然資源,來作為它們的主要競爭優勢,這和一般人的迷思正好相反。全球經濟的轉變也意味,傳統的跨國企 業不僅要在它們自己的領土裡迎戰這些新秀,在這些企業賴以成長的市場中,它們也被迫面臨愈來愈嚴重的競爭壓力,因為新興跨國企業在這些成長市場中擁有它們 特有的本土優勢。

新興市場的自信心已經愈來愈強,同時也發展出屬於他們特有的品味。隨著「西方國家」逐漸失去「模範」的地位,某些傳統品牌的吸引力可能會逐漸消失。現在已 經有成千上萬種新的本土產品(從泡麵到多人同時上線的電腦遊戲和行動電話),是為了迎合亞洲消費者需求而推出。這個世界不是平的,而是逐漸朝新興市場傾 斜!

(本文摘自大塊文化出版《新興市場的新世紀 》台灣版作者序)

China to seal $9bn DR Congo deal

China to seal $9bn DR Congo deal

Tim Whewell
By Tim Whewell
BBC Newsnight, Democratic Republic of Congo

How China plans to build DR Congo's infrastructure

It's a scene that - with just a few changes - you might have found in the central African bush in the late 19th Century.

Ploughing through the long grass is a foreigner in a wide-brimmed sun-hat, scribbling away in a notebook.

Alongside, a deferential African bearing a long pole. The two are barely able to communicate with one another.

You're reminded, irresistibly, of images of Victorian era explorers such as David Livingstone and Henry Morton Stanley, hacking their way across the continent.

But this foreigner comes from a country that suffered from colonial exploitation itself.

Biggest deal

He's Chinese, an engineer, and his assistant's pole is not for beating down the vegetation. It's a global positioning tool, taking satellite readings to plot the exact course of a road that's about to be built.

The pair belong to an advance team of surveyors deployed to the Democratic Republic of Congo by a massive state-owned firm based in Beijing, the China Railway Engineering Corporation, or CREC.

DR CONGO
DR Congo map
DR Congo is larger than Western Europe
Has few railways or surfaced roads
Striving to recover from five-year war; millions died, mostly through starvation, disease
Hosts the UN's largest peacekeeping mission

And the new road they're planning will be the first fruit of the biggest single deal China's ever done in Africa, worth $9bn.

Due to be signed in Beijing in the next few days, it gives DR Congo $6bn of desperately needed infrastructure - about 2,400 miles of road, 2,000 miles of railway, 32 hospitals, 145 health centres and two universities.

In return, China gets a slice of DR Congo's precious natural resources to feed its booming industries - 10m tonnes of copper and 400,000 tonnes of cobalt.

Infrastructure

It's a barter deal - what the Chinese side loves to call "win-win". Not aid with strings attached, like Western powers have given DR Congo over the years, but pure business.

Decades of kleptocratic dictatorship and brutal civil war have brought DR Congo to its knees. Most of its infrastructure barely functions.

"We've been mining for two centuries but people only see minerals going out," says deputy Mining Minister Victor Kasongo.

"People talk about roads, schools, water - they hardly see anything from the huge assets."

The Chinese ambassador to DR Congo, Wu Zexian, is equally frank about his country's agenda:

"China needs many things. In this world China cannot live closed off which is why we have adopted a politics of openness towards the outside world. We must come to a co-operation that benefits everyone."

Paul Fortin on China's DR Congo deal

The fine print of the deal was negotiated over two months in Beijing by Paul Fortin, a corporate lawyer based in Monaco who now runs DR Congo's state-owned copper and cobalt mining company, Gecamines.

He clinched it by finding a mine - in Kolwezi, in the southern copper belt province of Katanga - that had enough proven reserves to persuade the Chinese that it was financially safe for them to begin disbursing a first tranche of money for infrastructure projects - about $3bn - right away.

China's state-owned Exim Bank, which is financing this deal and many others in Africa, is still taking on a level of risk that few Western banks would consider.

Joint venture

It'll take about three years, and another $3bn or so of investment, before the disused mine - formerly owned by the Belgian Forrest Group - is up and running.

When production begins, the Chinese companies signing the deal - CREC and Sinohydro - will disburse a final $3bn on roads, railways and hospitals.

The idea is that China will recoup its total investment within 10 years.

Thereafter the joint venture - one third DR Congolese, two-thirds Chinese - continues to exploit the mine.

Congo cobalt mine
The deal will provide China with access to DR Congo's vast cobalt mines

Paul Fortin believes the deal - and the rapidly rising price of minerals - will jump-start the economy of a region depressed after years of war.

"This was thriving and jumping in the 1920s and 30s," he says. "Now it has a chance to restart. It's like you go back to Klondike and say: 'Hey guys, we're reopening again.'"

And yet, despite China's pledge of openness, the deal has still not been published - to the fury of human rights groups.

"Our worry is that it is almost totally opaque," says Katanga-based lawyer Georges Kapiamba, who eventually obtained a copy.

"It permits a group of Chinese to get more than the Congolese - it's not a win-win contract."

Kapiamba says the deal amounts to a licensed plundering of DR Congo's resources similar to that carried out under the country's colonial ruler, King Leopold II of Belgium.

A copy of the original DR Congolese-Chinese memorandum of understanding obtained by Newsnight appears to exonerate the Chinese side from all taxes and customs duties until the promised building work is completed.

Victor Kasongo, the deputy mining minister, says DR Congo "will do whatever's necessary to keep the Chinese on board".

Scrutiny

But critics say the problem is not just fiscal privileges.

Tim Whewell's car stuck in mud on Congo's roads
BBC Newsnight fell foul of DR Congo's crumbling infrastructure
Tim Whewell's film can be seen on the Newsnight website

The whole arithmetic of the deal unfairly favours the Chinese. At current world prices for copper and cobalt, they claim, the Chinese side of the joint venture will make a colossal overall profit of about $42bn after all the investment's been paid.

Paul Fortin of Gecamines dismisses that argument as "rubbish", because it ignores continuing production costs and interest repayments.

"Without the Chinese," he adds - pointing to the disused Kolwezi mine - "all this will be just be scenery."

There's no doubt about Beijing's bravado. But until the deal can be properly scrutinised, the doubts will continue.

"We can't understand why they're signing under these circumstances," says the human rights lawyer Georges Kapiamba.

"We need a commission of jurists to consider whether it's in the interests of the Congolese."

2008年5月31日 星期六

China’s biggest health disaster is the air

中國向免費塑料購物袋說再見

中國"限塑令"生效,從今天起,商家不得免費提供塑料購物袋。

此外,從6月1日起,中國還禁止生產、銷售和使用厚度小于0.025毫米的塑料購物袋。

中國的限塑運動旨在通過改變人們的購物習慣,減少塑料垃圾以及由此造成的"白色污染",節約能源、改善環境。

今年,"綠色奧運"是北京奧運三大理念其中之一,環保的地位可見一斑。中國政府也在積極推進一系列環保政策以及環保項目。

中國塑料加工協會估計,實施限塑令之后,中國使用塑料袋的總量將減少三分之一。

該協會估計,中國每天使用30億個塑料袋,需要使用3700萬桶原油加工制造。最后,絕大多數都被扔進垃圾堆填充地球。

據法新社報道,大多數中國人都支持禁止商家提供免費塑料購物袋的做法。

報道說,網上市場調研公司CIIC-COMR對全國各地5200名消費者所作的調查發現,77.5%的人支持限塑。

目前全世界實行全面"限塑法"的國家還不多。

環保人士仍在緊密觀察中國該項法令的執行情況,特被是小城鎮、小商店能否嚴格執法。

綠色和平組織的一位活動人士說,塑料袋并不是中國最嚴重的環境污染問題。比如說,空氣質量,就是一個更加嚴重的問題。

Where Breathing Is Deadly

Nicholas D. Kristof

A fisherman at a fish pond near Badui, where fish are raised in suspect water.


Published: May 25, 2008

BADUI, China

Skip to next paragraph

On the Ground

Share Your Comments About This Column

Nicholas Kristof addresses reader feedback and posts short takes from his travels.

Go to Columnist Page »
Nicholas D. Kristof

Kong Dongmei and Hong Xia in Badui village. Both girls are mentally-retarded, and the villagers blame pollution from a local factory.

China’s biggest health disaster isn’t the terrible Sichuan earthquake this month. It’s the air.

The quake killed at least 60,000 people, generating a response that has been heartwarming and inspiring, with even schoolchildren in China donating to the victims. Yet with little notice, somewhere between 300,000 and 400,000 Chinese die prematurely every year from the effects of outdoor air pollution, according to studies by Chinese and international agencies alike.

In short, roughly as many Chinese die every two months from the air as were killed in the earthquake. And the problem is becoming international: just as Californians can find Chinese-made shoes in their stores, they can now find Chinese-made haze in their skies.

This summer’s Beijing Olympics will showcase the most remarkable economic explosion in history, and also some of the world’s thickest pollution in both air and water. So I’ve returned to the Yellow River in western China’s Gansu Province to an isolated village that has haunted me since I saw it a decade ago.

Badui is known locally as the “village of dunces.” That’s because of the large number of mentally retarded people here — as well as the profusion of birth defects, skin rashes and physical deformities. Residents are sure that the problems result from a nearby fertilizer factory dumping effluent that taints their drinking water.

“Even if you’re afraid, you have to drink,” said Zhou Genger, the mother of a 15-year-old girl who is mentally retarded and has a hunchback. The girl, Kong Dongmei, mumbled unintelligibly, and Ms. Zhou said she had never been able to speak clearly.

Ms. Zhou pulled up the back of her daughter’s shirt, revealing a twisted, disfiguring mass of bones.

A 10-year-old neighbor girl named Hong Xia watched, her eyes filled with wonder at my camera. The neighbors say she, too, is retarded.

None of this is surprising: rural China is full of “cancer villages” caused by pollution from factories. Beijing’s air sometimes has a particulate concentration that is four times the level considered safe by the World Health Organization.

Scientists have tracked clouds of Chinese pollution as they drift over the Pacific and descend on America’s West Coast. The impact on American health is uncertain.

In fairness, China has been better than most other countries in curbing pollution, paying attention to the environment at a much earlier stage of development than the United States, Europe or Japan. Most impressive, in 2004, China embraced tighter fuel economy standards than the Bush administration was willing to accept at the time.

The city of Shanghai charges up to $7,000 for a license plate, thus reducing the number of new vehicles, and China has planted millions of trees and hugely expanded the use of natural gas to reduce emissions. If you look at what China’s leaders are doing, you wish that President Bush were half as green.

But then you peer into the Chinese haze — and despair. The economic boom is raising living standards hugely in many ways, but the toll of the resulting pollution can be brutal. The filth is prompting public protests, but the government has tightly curbed the civil society organizations that could help monitor pollution and keep it in check.

An environmental activist named Wu Lihong warned for years that Lake Tai, China’s third-largest freshwater lake, was endangered by chemical factories along its banks. Mr. Wu was proved right when the lake filled with toxins last summer — shortly after the authorities had sentenced him to three years in prison.

Here in Badui, the picture is as complex as China’s development itself. The government has taken action since my previous visit: the factory supposedly is no longer dumping pollutants, and the villages have been supplied with water that, in theory, is pure. The villagers don’t entirely believe this, but they acknowledge that their health problems have diminished.

Moreover, economic development has reached Badui. It is still poor, with a per-capita income of $100 a year, but there is now a rough dirt road to the village. On my last visit, there was only a footpath.

The road has increased economic opportunities. Farmers have dug ponds to raise fish that are trucked to the markets, but the fish are raised in water taken from the Yellow River just below the fertilizer factory. When I looked in one pond, the first thing I saw was a dead fish.

“We eat the fish ourselves,” said the village leader, Li Yuntang. “We worry about the chemicals, but we have to eat.” He said that as far as he knew, the fish had never been inspected for safety.

Now those fish from this dubious water are sold to unsuspecting residents in the city of Lanzhou. And the complexities and ambiguities about that progress offer a window into the shadings of China’s economic boom.

2008年5月29日 星期四

四川地震遇难学生家长

英国《金融时报》汤姆·米切尔(Tom Mitchell)北川报道
他们认为,建筑质量不合格是校舍倒塌主因
0530 2008
BBC 新聞 Asia Today 一影像令人難忘--一母子那了兒女的喪禮照片 不斷輕輕地撫摸相框玻璃下的亡兒臉頰

Burma introduces new constitution

entrench

Burma introduces new constitution

Burma has adopted a new constitution which the country's military regime says is approved by over 90 percent of the population.

The military pressed ahead with a constitutional referendum earlier this month, despite international calls to delay the vote due to Cyclone Nargis, which left over 130,000 Burmese dead or missing and caused widespread chaos.

The regime has said the new constitution will pave the way for elections in two years.

However, detained democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi says the charter will only entrench military rule. She will be barred from running for office under the new constitution, which reserves a quarter of parliamentary seats for the military.

倫敦大學將在阿德萊德創辦分校

倫敦大學將在阿德萊德創辦分校
2008年5月29日
倫敦大學學院(UCL)將成為第一個在澳大利亞開設校區的英國大學。

UCL已經与南澳大利亞州政府簽署協議。根据協議,UCL將在阿德萊德建立一個能源及礦業學院。學院將位于阿德萊德市中心維多利亞廣場的Torrens樓內。

學院建成后,可招募60名學生,學習為期兩年的能源及礦業碩士課程,同時學院還可開設教育管理課程。

南澳州政府計划撥款400万元用于修繕這座建筑,并將在學院開辦前七年內給學院提供支持。

2006年,美國的卡內基梅隆大學也在阿德萊德創辦了澳大利亞校區。

南澳州政府非常希望把阿德萊德建成一個學院城市,并鼓勵外國大學在南澳開辦分校。

2008年5月28日 星期三

River Threatens China Quake Survivors


River Threatens China Quake Survivors


Published: May 29, 2008

CHENGDU, China — Wedged between two fractured mountains, engineers, construction workers and soldiers were racing Wednesday to relieve pressure on a dammed river that threatens millions of people who live downstream, most of them survivors of the earthquake on May 12 that ranks as one of China’s deadliest natural disasters in 30 years.

Skip to next paragraph
Reuters

Local residents carried their belongings out of the debris of their collapsed houses in earthquake-devastated Beichuan in Sichuan Province. Authorities are evacuating the area amid new concerns about flooding. More Photos »

Comment Earthquake Q&A

Times reporters are answering readers’ questions about the earthquake, its aftermath and the Chinese government’s response.

How to Help

A list of agencies providing relief in the earthquake zone.

Times Topics

Sichuan Earthquake

Sichuan Earthquake Complete coverage of the aftermath of China’s earthquake.

Multimedia

China’s Dams in DangerSlide Show

China’s Dams in Danger

Back Story with Andrew Jacobs (mp3)
The New York Times

More Photos >

David Guttenfelder/Associated Press

Chinese refugees leaving the town of Beichuan as Chinese soldiers prepared to enter the city in Beichuan County of China's Sichuan province on Wednesday. More Photos >

During the past two days, more than 600 people have been working around the clock to create a sluice above the village of Tianlin, according to Xinhua, the official Chinese news agency. The channel, being dug by hand and with excavating machines that were airlifted to the site, would drain water from a fast-rising reservoir created by an avalanche of rock and mud that spilled into the river, the Bai He, during earthquake.

In recent days, at least 160,000 people have been evacuated, although hundreds of thousands of others are still living downstream, most of them in temporary camps that are proving a formidable challenge to the government as it struggles to provide food, water and shelter for more than 15 million displaced people.

Government officials on Wednesday raised the quake’s death toll by 1,000, to 68,100; another 21,000 people are still missing.

Engineers have said they need at least a week to dig a drainage canal to reduce pressure on the dam, which is blocking the Bai He two miles upstream from the devastated town of Beichuan.

During an earthquake relief cabinet meeting in Beijing, Hui Liangyu, a vice premier, expressed urgency, saying “any negligence will cause new disasters to people who have already suffered the quake,” Xinhua said on Wednesday. During the same meeting on Tuesday, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao told ministers that alleviating the risk of flooding from 34 so-called quake lakes was “the most pressing task” for the government. Officials also announced that $29 million in emergency funds would be allocated to the effort.

One water resources official told Agence France-Presse that the evacuations were moving too slowly. “Sometimes local governments think that evacuation is too much trouble, and they’re betting it won’t really be necessary, because they’re not sure how big the risk might be,” he said.

Cai Qihua, a local water management official, told The China Daily that the water was quickly approaching the top of the rubble wall, rising nearly 7 feet a day. He said another 75 feet remained until the water reached the top of the dam, although it is not clear whether that would cause the barrier to crumble.

Japanese officials said they were considering a Chinese request to provide tents and blankets to the homeless. During a press conference in Tokyo, Nobutaka Machimura, Japan’s chief cabinet secretary, said Wednesday it was unclear whether Beijing would allow the Japanese military aircraft to deliver aid. If so, it would mark the first time that the military would touch down on Chinese soil since Japan’s brutal World War II occupation.

During the cabinet meeting in Beijing on Tuesday, the ministers said the government’s relief efforts had reached a “new stage,” one that should focus on burying the dead, feeding the living and preventing an outbreak of disease through a massive inoculation campaign. They also said work should begin on reconstruction, including the restoration of crippled industries.

The ministers, however, suggested that some badly damaged towns might never be rebuilt. They said residents would be relocated, although it provided no further details. According to Xinhua, the members of the state council urged that “social order should be maintained in the quake zones.”

In several towns, parents continued to agitate for a speedy government investigation into why so many schools collapsed during the earthquake, killing thousands of students and teachers. In Shifang, more than 300 parents whose children died at the Jiandi Middle School protested at the gates of the local government, according to Boxun News.

In Dujiangyan, a group of 500 parents gathered at a tent temporarily housing the city’s education bureau and demanded that provincial officials investigate why the Xin Jian school collapsed, killing at least 300 children. They also asked that those responsible be punished and that bereaved parents receive compensation.

According to the father of a 9-year-old girl who died at the school, about a dozen parents were allowed to talk to officials, although they left feeling dissatisfied. “They only offered some hollow ‘official talk,’” said the man, who would only give his surname, Qin.

Encouraged by another group of parents who protested in Mianzhu on Sunday, Mr. Qin said the parents would stage their own “mourning” rally on June 1, which is Children’s Day in China, a national holiday.