韓國是亞洲的冰島嗎？
冰
島正在尋求一條救生索，努力避免陷入拖欠債務的境地。這使得亞洲一些觀察人士擔心，亞洲可能也會出現本地區的冰島。雖然沒人認為亞洲會再遭遇一場金融危機，但冰島的巨額經常項目逆差和銀行體系危機可能會讓人猜想哪個實行開放式金融市場的國家會有同樣的遭遇。如果真有這樣的亞洲國家，那韓國或許會排在首位。該國在1997年金融危機中令外國投資者損失慘重。
韓國的經常項目逆差是亞洲國家中最高的，其銀行的貸存比率在亞洲國家中也最高，達到136%，大大高於亞洲82%的平均水平。亞洲貸存比率排名第二的印度尼西亞為95%。
投資者無疑正在匆忙逃離韓國市場。該國主要股指韓國綜合指數已較高點水平回落了35%，韓圓兌美元匯率也跌至10年低點。
但韓國也具備一些有利條件。韓圓疲軟會降低韓國產品在國外的售價，從而有助於提振該國出口。
而 大宗商品價格走低也給韓國帶來了一線希望。高盛(Goldman Sachs)認為，如果今年剩余時間油價能保持在每桶85美元左右，那麼韓國很有可能在今年第四季度實現經常項目順差。與大多數國家相比，大宗商品價格對 韓國經常項目狀況的影響尤為巨大，油價每下降10%，韓國的經常項目逆差就能下降0.9%左右。
而韓國銀行的狀況也要比冰島的穩定。冰島的幾家銀行突然之間就淪落到掛牌拍賣的境地，而該國第三大銀行的控制權已被冰島金融監管局(Financial Supervisory Authority)接手。
雖然首爾市場對美元的需求已導致韓國的銀行同業拆息像其他主要金融中心一樣大幅飆升，但至少該國主要幾家商業銀行的韓圓頭寸仍呈現為淨流入，並未再現1997年金融危機時的存款蒸發景象。9月份韓國銀行體系的韓圓存款額較上年同期增長了11%。
韓國央行(Bank of Korea)手中的外匯儲備也多達2,397億美元，大大高於1997年時的水平。當時韓國的銀行曾在海外市場上借入了大量短期美元資金。而這一次韓國各銀行背負的大多是長期債務。
雖然短時間內還難以搞清哪個國家或哪家銀行會在此次危機中落馬，但至少韓國還有不會淪為亞洲冰島的可能。
MARK CRANFIELD
Is South Korea Asia's Iceland?
Iceland is seeking a lifeline and trying to avert defaulting on its debt. That has some Asia watchers wondering whether this region may have an Iceland of its own.
While nobody is expecting Asian Crisis Part Two, Iceland's huge current account deficit and banking system malaise could provoke comparisons with Asian countries with open financial markets in similar circumstances. If it does, South Korea, the biggest money loser for foreigners during the 1997 financial crisis, may top the danger list.
Korea has the largest current account deficit in Asia and its banks have the worst loan-to-deposit ratios. Indeed, at 136%, the ratio of Korean bank loans to deposits is significantly above the Asian average of 82%. Next in line after Korea is Indonesia at 95%.
Investors are certainly fleeing Korea's markets in a hurry. The main Kospi index is 35% off its peak and the Korean won has hit a decade-low against the U.S. dollar.
But Korea has some wind at its back. The weak Korean won makes its products cheaper in other countries and could boost exports.
There is also hope in the form of lower commodity prices. Should oil prices remain around $85 per barrel through the rest of year, there is a good chance of Korea posting a current account surplus in the fourth quarter through December, according to Goldman Sachs. Commodity prices have a particularly large impact compared with most countries on Korea's current account position, which improves by around 0.9% for every 10% decline in oil prices.
Korean banks are also in a less precarious position than Iceland's. Several Icelandic banks been put up for sale all at once and control of the third-largest bank has passed to the Financial Supervisory Authority.
While the demand for dollar funding in Seoul has sent interbank rates skyrocketing as in other major centers, at least the major commercial banks are seeing net inflows of the local currency, unlike at the start of the Asian crisis in 1997 when deposits evaporated. Won deposits grew 11% on year in September.
The Bank of Korea is also sitting on foreign reserves of $239.7 billion, much larger reserves than it had in 1997, when its banks had borrowed significant amounts of short-term dollars in offshore markets. This time around, Korea's banks have mostly long-term debt.
There is still a long way to go before the all clear sounds for any country or bank caught up in this crisis, but at least Korea has a fighting chance of coming out ahead of Iceland.
MARK CRANFIELD
While nobody is expecting Asian Crisis Part Two, Iceland's huge current account deficit and banking system malaise could provoke comparisons with Asian countries with open financial markets in similar circumstances. If it does, South Korea, the biggest money loser for foreigners during the 1997 financial crisis, may top the danger list.
Korea has the largest current account deficit in Asia and its banks have the worst loan-to-deposit ratios. Indeed, at 136%, the ratio of Korean bank loans to deposits is significantly above the Asian average of 82%. Next in line after Korea is Indonesia at 95%.
Investors are certainly fleeing Korea's markets in a hurry. The main Kospi index is 35% off its peak and the Korean won has hit a decade-low against the U.S. dollar.
But Korea has some wind at its back. The weak Korean won makes its products cheaper in other countries and could boost exports.
There is also hope in the form of lower commodity prices. Should oil prices remain around $85 per barrel through the rest of year, there is a good chance of Korea posting a current account surplus in the fourth quarter through December, according to Goldman Sachs. Commodity prices have a particularly large impact compared with most countries on Korea's current account position, which improves by around 0.9% for every 10% decline in oil prices.
Korean banks are also in a less precarious position than Iceland's. Several Icelandic banks been put up for sale all at once and control of the third-largest bank has passed to the Financial Supervisory Authority.
While the demand for dollar funding in Seoul has sent interbank rates skyrocketing as in other major centers, at least the major commercial banks are seeing net inflows of the local currency, unlike at the start of the Asian crisis in 1997 when deposits evaporated. Won deposits grew 11% on year in September.
The Bank of Korea is also sitting on foreign reserves of $239.7 billion, much larger reserves than it had in 1997, when its banks had borrowed significant amounts of short-term dollars in offshore markets. This time around, Korea's banks have mostly long-term debt.
There is still a long way to go before the all clear sounds for any country or bank caught up in this crisis, but at least Korea has a fighting chance of coming out ahead of Iceland.
MARK CRANFIELD
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