2013年12月31日 星期二

Taiwan confirmed its second human case of the H7N9 bird flu

Taiwan Confirms Second Human Bird-Flu Case Wall Street Journal
TAIPEI—Taiwan confirmed its second human case of the H7N9 bird flu Tuesday, a sign that the deadly virus is spreading further beyond mainland ...

2013年12月30日 星期一

1947年「 紐約時報」 對二二八大屠殺的報導

1947年 紐約時報 對二二八大屠殺的報導

By taiwancon - 週二 2011年02月22日, 3:07 下午

1947年 紐約時報 對二二八大屠殺的報導
原文連結:http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F00E10FA3F5A147B93CBAB1788D85F438485F9
Formosa Killings Are Put at 10,000; Foreigners Say the Chinese Slaughtered Demonstrators Without Provocation
福爾摩沙人死亡人數上達一萬;外籍人士說 中國人屠殺未挑釁的示威者
March 29, 1947, Saturday
By TILLMAN DURDIN Special to THE NEW YORK TIMES.
Page 6, 554 words
Foreigners say the Chinese slaughtered demonstrators without provocation Nanking, March 28, Foreigners who have just returned to China from Formosa corroborate reports of wholesale slaughter by Chinese troops and police during anti-Government demonstrations a month ago.
3月28日南京電,外國人士表示,中國屠殺沒有挑釁行為的示威者。剛剛由福爾摩沙返回中國的外國人士證實中國軍隊與警察一個月前在反政府示威活動中展開大屠殺。
These witnesses estimate that 10,000 Formosans were killed by the Chinese armed forces. The killings were described as “completely unjustified" in view of the nature of the demonstrations.
這些見證人估計大約有一萬名福爾摩沙人遭到中國軍隊屠殺。以示威活動的態勢看來,屠殺被形容為「毫無必要的」。

The anti-Government demonstrations were said to have been by unarmed persons whose intentions were peaceful. Every foreign report to Nanking denies charges that Communists or Japanese inspired or organized the parades.
參與反政府示威的是一群手無寸鐵,以和平為意念的百姓,所有外電報導都否認有共產黨或日本人鼓動或組織示威遊行。
Foreigners who left Formosa a few days ago say that an uneasy peace had been established almost everywhere, but executions and arrests continued. Many Formosans were said to have fled to the hills fearing they would be killed if they returned to their homes.
幾天前剛離開福爾摩沙的外國人士表示,各地已經確立緊張的表面平靜,但是槍決與逮捕仍然持續進行。許多福爾摩沙人已經逃到山中,他們擔心一旦回到家中就會遭到殺害。

Three Days of Slaughter:
三日屠殺
An American who had just arrived in China from Taihoku said that troops from the mainland arrived there March 7 and indulged in three days of indiscriminate killing and looting. For a time everyone seen on the streets was shot at, homes were broken into and occupants killed. In the poorer sections the streets were said to have been littered with dead. There were instances of beheadings and mutilation of bodies, and women were raped, the American said.
一位剛由台北回到中國的美國人表示,中國軍隊三月七日抵達台灣後,展開三天的無差別屠殺與搶劫,任何人只要在街上被看到就被槍殺,房屋被闖入,所有的居民都被殺害,最嚴重的地方,街頭屍橫遍野,有些人的頭被砍斷,有些被分屍,婦女遭到強暴。
Two foreign women, who were near at Pingtung near Takao, called the actions of the Chinese soldiers there a “massacre." They said unarmed Formosans took over the administration of the town peacefully on March 4 and used the local radio station to caution against violence.
兩位接近屏東地區的外籍女士稱中國軍人的行為「大屠殺」,他們說,沒有武裝的福爾摩沙人在三月四號和平的佔領市政府,並用廣播要求大家不要使用暴力。

Chinese were well received and invited to lunch with the Formosan leaders. Later a bigger group of soldiers came and launched a sweep through the streets. The people were machine gunned. Groups were rounded up and executed. The man who had served as the town’s spokesman was killed. His body was left for a day in a park and no one was permitted to remove it.
中國人被善待還被邀請到福爾摩沙人領袖的家中共進午餐,但是稍後,更大群的軍人到達,用機關槍對街上人民掃射,許多人被集合起來集體槍決,鎮上的發言人被殺害,他的屍體被丟棄在公園中一整天不准收屍。
A Briton described similar events at Takao, where unarmed Formosans had taken over the running of the city. He said that after several days Chinese soldiers from an outlying fort deployed through the streets killing hundreds with machine-guns and rifles and raping and looting. Formosan leaders were thrown into prison, many bound with thin wire that cut deep into the flesh.
一位英國人也描述發生在高雄類似的事件,福爾摩沙人佔領市政府,幾天後中國軍人由外港登陸,用機關槍、步槍搶劫與強姦婦女,共有數百人遭殺害。福爾摩沙人的領袖被逮捕入獄,許多人被鐵絲穿過身體串成一串。
Leaflets Trapped Many
許多人被傳單所騙
The foreign witnesses reported that leaflets signed with the name of Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek promising leniency, and urging all who had fled to return, were dropped from airplanes. As a result many came back to be imprisoned or executed. “There seemed to be a policy of killing off all the best people," one foreigner asserted. The foreigners’ stories are fully supported by reports of every important foreign embassy or legation in Nanking.
外國見證人表示,飛機灑下一張由蔣介石簽名,保證寬大,力勸所有在逃難的人返回家園的傳單,結果許多人回家後遭到逮捕與槍決。一位外籍人士補充,看來有個政策打算殺害所有的菁英,這些外籍人士的故事得到所有重要外國使館與南京官方的證實。
Formosans are reported to be seeking United Nations’ action on their case. Some have approached foreign consuls to ask that Formosa be put under the jurisdiction of Allied Supreme Command or be made an American protectorate. Formosan hostility to the mainland Chinese has deepened. Two women who described events at Pingtung said that when Formosans assembled to take over the administration of the town they sang “The Star Spangled Banner."
據報導,福爾摩沙人正要求聯合國採取行動,有些人聯繫外國大使,要求將台灣交由聯軍最高統帥治理,或是成為美國的保護地。福爾摩沙人對中國人的敵意已經加深,兩位描述發生在屏東事件的女士表示,當福爾摩沙人佔領市政府時唱的是美國國歌。
感謝台灣紳士阿榮大哥熱情提供
http://tw.myblog.yahoo.com/jw!DfduAriGQkNFWgFNkNE3jbeBg.c-/profile
酥餅的部落格 也有刊載
http://blog.roodo.com/subing/archives/2781801.html
228大屠殺影片系列
◎ 2007.2 / 26日 三立新聞 二二八走過ㄧ甲子( 第一集 共13集 )

Soil Pollution Plagues Chinese Coutryside 污染導致中國耕地大量減少 China Uncovers Poor State of its Soil

A farmer worked her land in the shadows of a lead factory in Hengyang, Hunan province, where scholars say soil pollution is especially acute.
Sim Chi Yin for The New York Times

Soil Pollution Plagues Chinese Countryside

Anxiety is growing in China about contaminated soil in the country’s agricultural centers and the potential effects on the food chain.



China Uncovers Poor State of its Soil


Pollution and other effects of urbanization and industrialization continue to take a toll on China's stock of farmland, the government said in a report Monday that provided fresh insight into one of its least understood environmental challenges.

Figures released by the Ministry of Land and Resources on Monday in Beijing indicated as much as 2.5% of China's soil could be too contaminated by heavy metals and other pollutants to farm. Meanwhile, the share of China's land that is arable fell by a fifth of a percent during the three years ended in 2009 due to pollution, urbanization and other reasons, the figures show.

In its report, the first on land conditions made public since 1996, the ministry described the trends as worrisome and said the nation's land situation remains 'grim.' It said China's stock of arable land has fallen in recent years and is less than half the world average per capita, for instance.

Wang Shiyuan, deputy minister of the Land bureau, told the press conference on Monday that China's Communist Party leadership determined fundamental risks remain after being presented recently with soil survey findings.

The Politburo decided, he said, 'We must follow the strictest land protection and land improvement procedures' to stabilize the nation's arable land.

The report left a number of questions about China's soil unanswered. Mr. Wang said the data came from surveys begun in 2006 and that the study was completed in 2009. It also wasn't clear whether the report and data disclosed on Monday fulfill a pledge by the Land Ministry in June to conduct a soil survey. Ministry officials didn't respond to requests for comment.

Chen Nengchang, a soil remediation expert with the Guangdong Institute of Environmental and Soil Sciences, described the release of previously secret information as a 'big step.'

But he said the data don't give much indication of how much land is at risk from mild levels of contamination that could also harm crops. Nor does the release provide a ground-level understanding of problems in specific places.

Contaminated land in China has gotten less domestic and international attention than the country's air and water pollution, which are tracked in ways that increasingly give the public an idea of what is happening. The land problem stems from similar industrialization trends, with ramifications for food quality and farmer health. In May, government tests showed the presence of cadmium, a heavy metal, in some rice supplies in southern Guangdong province.

The problem also strikes close to the leadership's concern that China is poorly positioned to satisfy the rapidly expanding appetites of roughly 20% of the global population with only about 10% of the world's arable land.

China's government itself drew unwanted attention to the issue of polluted land earlier this year when its environmental watchdogs declined to release soil surveys. At one point, bureaucrats described the data as state secrets, prompting widespread consternation from environmentalists and even China's government-run media.

Mr. Wang said medium to heavy pollution rendered unfit for farming some 50 million mu (8.24 million acres). He didn't elaborate and the accompanying report didn't provide a comparable figure, but cited pollutants in the country's major rivers and encroachment of major cities as key causes. A mu is a Chinese measure of area about one-sixth the size of an acre.

The pollution figure equals about 2.5% of China's 2.027 billion mu in total arable land in 2012, according to a calculation by The Wall Street Journal. The total arable land figure, down about 0.2% from 2.031 billion mu in 2009, was also a newly released by the ministry on Monday.

Almost a quarter of China's arable land is located in areas considered poor for farming, such as hillsides, the bureau said.

The government considers a minimum 1.8 billion mu of farmable land a 'red line' for food security. Mr. Wang said the party leaders reiterated the importance of protecting the baseline by ensuring 'the amount of arable land is stabilized.'

China's Communist Party leadership devoted chunks of the plenum policy plan released in November to issues related to rural land, including a pledge to 'shape new types of industry-agriculture and urban-rural relationships.' In recent years, China's land shortage has helped drive facets of its foreign policy, from state-supported purchases of farmland and agro-business groups around the world to its appetite for foreign agricultural commodities like U.S. corn.

James T. Areddy

政府數據顯示污染導致中國耕地大量減少



Reuters
根據政府發佈的報告,中國2.5%的土地可能受到重金屬和其它污染物的嚴重污染而無法耕種。上圖為遼寧,一名農婦正在收購莊稼。照片拍攝於2008年。

國政府在週一發佈的一份報告中稱,污染以及城鎮化和工業化帶來的其它影響繼續讓中國耕地面積大量流失。這份報告令外界對中國在環境問題上面臨的最不為人瞭解的種種挑戰有了一個新的認識。

從中國國土資源部週一在北京公佈的數據可以得知,中國2.5%的土地可能受到重金屬和其它污染物的嚴重污染而無法種植。與此同時數據還顯示,受污染、城鎮化和其他因素影響,截至2009年的三年中,中國的耕地面積減少了0.2%。

這是1996年以來政府首次公佈土地狀況。國土資源部在報告中稱這種趨勢令人擔憂,並稱耕地保護形勢仍十分嚴峻。報告顯示,近年來國內耕地面積減少,目前不到全球人均耕地面積的一半。

國土資源部副部長王世元週一在新聞發佈上表示,中共領導層近期在看到土地調查數據後,認為基本風險依然存在。

王世元稱,中央政治局決定,必須堅持最嚴格的耕地保護制度和最嚴格的節約用地制度,必須堅守耕地紅線和糧食底線,確保實有耕地數量基本穩定。

這份報告仍未就某些中國土壤問題給出答案。王世元稱,報告的數據來自於2006年開始的調查,相關研究結束於2009年。目前尚不清楚週一公佈的報告和數據是否兌現了國土資源部6月份時進行土壤調查的承諾。該部門官員並沒有回應記者的置評請求。


廣東省生態環境與土壤研究所(Guangdong Institute of Environmental and Soil Sciences)的土壤修復專家陳能場稱,這些原先保密的信息得到公佈是邁出的“重大一步”。

但他也表示,這些數據無法讓我們得知有多少土地受輕微污染威脅(這種污染可能影響農作物),也無法就特定地區出現的種種問題給出具體解釋。

與空氣和水污染相比,中國的土地污染問題得到的國內外關注較少。由於空氣和水污染問題得到多方面報導,公眾對於相關問題的瞭解越來越多。土地污染的原因同樣出自工業化,污染會對糧食質量和農民健康造成影響。今年5月政府檢測顯示,廣東南部市場上出售一些大米含有重金屬鎘。

土地問題也牽涉到中國政府領導層的擔憂:中國的耕地面積僅佔世界總面積的約10%,但中國卻要養活全球大約20%的人口,且人口規模還在膨脹,因此中國所處的形勢並不樂觀。

中國政府今年早些時候因土地污染問題招致關注。原因是中國環保機構不予公佈土地調查結果,甚至稱這些數據屬於國家機密。這樣的說法令環保人士甚至官方媒體錯愕不已。

王世元表示,中重度污染耕地大體在5,000萬畝(824萬英畝)左右。他沒有就此做詳細說明,報告也沒有提供可供比較的數字,但稱國內主要河流內的污染物以及主要城鎮佔地是主要原因。一畝相當於大約六分之一英畝。

根據《華爾街日報》(The Wall Street Journal)的計算,上述污染面積相當於2012年中國耕地總面積20.27億畝的2.5%左右。耕地總面積也是國土資源部週一新公佈的數據,較2009年的20.31億畝減少了大約0.2%。

國土資源部稱,國內將近四分之一的耕地位於被看作是不適宜耕地的區域,例如山坡地帶。

為了維護糧食安全,政府設置了最低18億畝的耕地面積“紅線”。王世元稱,領導層重申,必須堅守耕地紅線和糧食底線,保持實有耕地數量基本穩定。

在 11月份公佈的第十八屆三中全會政策規劃中,大部分內容和農村土地相關,其中包括承諾“健全新型工農城鄉關係”。近年來,土地短缺已成為影響中國對外政策 的一個因素。無論是政府支持的海外耕地購買、海外農業企業集團投資,還是進口美國玉米等外國農產品,無不反映了土地短缺的影響。

James T. Areddy

2013年12月26日 星期四

泰國局勢: postponement of national elections set for Feb. 2? /反對人士組"平行政府"......鄉村民工的政治力漸大

After the clashes between the police and protesters in Bangkok on Thursday that left one police officer dead and dozens of people injured, the Election Commission of Thailand urged the postponement of national elections set for Feb. 2.
泰國反對人士組"平行政府"......





The Last Gasp of Thai Paternalism
Bangkok’s middle classes are terrified by the rising political clout of rural migrant workers.

2013年12月25日 星期三

China Considers Rule Change for Challenging Land Disputes


Chinese authorities are considering rule changes to make it easier for citizens to challenge government authorities in courts over disputes such as land confiscation, Beijing's latest attempt to diffuse social tensions by refining the legal system.

A subgroup of China's legislature began considering draft amendments that would strengthen a law governing how ordinary citizens can appeal government decisions by opening new channels for them to sue official bodies, the state-run Xinhua News Agency reported Tuesday. The agency said the amendment, if adopted, would be the first adjustment in the Administrative Procedure Law since its 1990 adoption.

Citizens find it difficult to challenge official actions in courts, which often refuse to accept cases or enforce judgments, and as a result, people have turned to petitioning the government for redress, according to Xin Chunying, deputy director of a legislative affairs commission for the National People's Congress. Quoted by Xinhua, Ms. Xin said compelling courts to accept and try more cases should reduce public petitioning.

Though the rule change would allow people to challenge government decisions on various fronts, officials indicated one main goal is to address calls in rural China for a say in land reallocation. In November, China's Communist Party vowed to pursue 'uniform' land rights nationwide, a pledge analysts said referred to making just compensation for land seized in rural areas.

Shaky legal grounds governing both the use and transfer of land--and property's soaring value--make control of real estate a particular source of tension in China. In recent years, reports in China have estimated the number of large protests annually at about 180,000. The Legal Daily newspaper in January reported almost a quarter of them were a direct result of land disputes, with others related to the environment.

Avenues to challenge official action in China are few; courts routinely reject such cases. In a survey of plaintiffs whose cases actually were accepted, 60% said they never received feedback, Xinhua said in its report about the draft rule change.

Zhang Dong, a lawyer in Beijing with Jiulong Law Firm who often handles land-dispute cases, said language in the draft rule is potentially important because it would put more onus on courts to accept cases. 'But like other laws in this country, what really matters is whether or not it can be implemented as required,' Mr. Zhang said.

With a court system seen as unresponsive, several million people annually take their grievances to the State Bureau for Letters and Calls, a much-maligned Communist Party-run institution that receives petitions and is rooted in imperial China. Petitioners rarely succeed in their claims and sometimes end up jailed, academics say.

In recent months, Beijing has said it is trying to modernize the petitioning system, including by allowing appeals online. A top bureau official was recently removed on allegations of corruption.

James T. Areddy

中國考慮修改法律以減少徵地糾紛


國政府有關部門正考慮修訂法律,降低公民就徵地等糾紛起訴政府相關部門的難度。這是北京方面為通過完善法律體系來消除社會不安因素所做的最新嘗試。


據新華社週二報導,中國全國人大常委會已開始審議行政訴訟法修正案草案。修正案草案將為普通公民起訴政府機關及其工作人員開闢新渠道,從而強化這部“民告官”法律。新華社稱,若修正案草案能獲得通過,將是行政訴訟法自1990年實施以來首次大修。

據新華社報導,中國全國人大常委會法工委副主任信春鷹稱,公民、法人或者其他組織與政府機關及其工作人員產生糾紛,行政機關不願當被告,法院不願受理,導致許多應當通過訴訟解決的糾紛進入信訪渠道。信春鷹還稱,強制要求法院受理更多這類案件應能減少信訪現象。

儘管上述修正案草案將允許公民挑戰政府在各個方面的決策,但官員們表示,其中一個主要目標是順應中國農民獲得土地再分配話語權的要求。中共11月份曾誓言要在全國範圍內實行“同地同權”,分析人士認為這項承諾所指的是為農村地區的徵地提供補償。

由 於中國涉及土地使用和轉讓的法律不完善,加上房地產價格飛漲,使得圍繞土地和房產控制權的爭奪成為中國引發衝突的一大導火索。最近幾年,據國內報告估計, 中國每年大約發生18萬起大規模抗議活動。據《法制日報》1月份報導,這些抗議活動有近四分之一是徵地衝突直接引起的,其他抗議活動則與環境問題有關。

在中國幾乎沒有起訴政府機關及其工作人員的渠道;法院通常不願受理這類案件。新華社在一篇有關行政訴訟法修正案草案的報導中稱,對訴訟最終被受理的原告進行的一項調查顯示,60%的原告稱從未收到過反饋。

Jiulong Law Firm駐北京的律師張東(音譯)表示,修正案草案的措辭可能很重要,因為它將加大法院受理相關案件力度;但與中國其他法律一樣,真正重要的是相關法律能否按照規定得到執行。

由於法院系統對民眾訴訟請求的反應遲鈍,中國每年有數百萬人通過國家信訪局訴冤。國家信訪局是中共管理的機構,一直以來飽受病詬。該機構負責受理民眾的申訴,是中國帝制時代的產物。據學界人士稱,民眾向信訪局申訴的問題很少能夠得到解決,一些申訴民眾自己反而遭到監禁。

最近數月,中國政府表示,將對信訪制度進行改革,包括實行網上信訪受理制度。國家信訪局的一位副局長最近因涉嫌嚴重違紀違法接受調查。

James T. Areddy

2013年12月24日 星期二

Russia Today / 中共祭拜俄共(江春男)

Russia Today
http://rt.com/news/


----

司馬觀點:中共祭拜俄共(江春男)

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蘇聯帝國突然崩解,北京兔死狐悲,視為巨大災難,20年後的今天,中共仍然如喪考妣,對別人的亡黨亡國祭來祭去,有如孝子賢孫,他們假裝不知道,莫斯科在1994年就把6月12日這個解體日,當作國慶日,全國放假一天。

蘇聯解體並非亡國

其實,蘇聯沒有亡國,只是各加盟共和國重新獲得獨立,蘇聯解體只是一個大家庭的分家,土地人口未被吞併,政權沒有落入外敵之手,根本談不上亡國。
反倒是舊蘇聯時期,蘇共中央將各加盟共和國的自治權剝奪殆盡,各加盟共和國人民有喪失民族獨立的亡國之痛。蘇聯瓦解時,戈巴契夫試圖簽訂新聯盟條約,以邦聯形式維持原來架構,但各民族被壓抑幾十年的獨立意識終於噴發,紛紛通過議會或全民公投宣布獨立。
蘇共更沒有亡黨,執政數十年的俄共一度被中止活動,後來自己宣布解散,後來改名捲土重來,至今仍然擁有國會席次。
俄共擁有九十多年歷史,執政七十多年,共有1900萬黨員,蘇聯垮台前,軍力仍居世界第二,國際舞台上虎虎生風,但是外強中乾,經濟政治結構僵化,改不動革不得,根本無藥可救,最後像一座腐朽大廈,轟然倒地。
現在俄羅斯的執政黨是統一俄羅斯黨,第二名是俄羅斯聯邦共產黨,是當年俄共的再生,屬於體制內合法的反對派,這個黨多次分裂,多次改名。
現在的俄國,努力與西方民主制度接軌,實行多黨制,定期選舉,陪審制度,普丁以強人姿態打壓新聞自由,本質上保有權威文化,但已走出專制集權框架,對舊蘇聯時代的懷舊情緒難免出現,但歷史已翻過這一頁,很少人想走回頭路。

俄走出歷史迎未來

俄共時代的檔案資料大部均已公開,俄國人慶幸終於走出歷史,可以擁抱未來,但中共經常在俄共鏡子中看到自己,彷彿活在過去。

韓国・台湾の液晶メーカー、苦肉の中国現地生産/ a desperate measure

 韓国・台湾の液晶メーカー、苦肉の中国現地生産 日本経済新聞
かつて猛烈な増産投資でシェアを奪い日本勢を経営危機に追い込んだ韓国、台湾メーカーは守りに入っている。台頭する中国勢への対抗策は限られる。苦肉の策 ...



 かつて猛烈な増産投資でシェアを奪い日本勢を経営危機に追い込んだ韓国、台湾メーカーは守りに入っている。台頭する中国勢への対抗策は限られる。 苦肉の策として進めているのは中国での現地生産だ。韓国サムスンディスプレーは10月、先陣を切って江蘇省蘇州市で工場を稼働させた。
 中国政府は2012年4月、3%に下げていた液晶パネルの輸入関税を5%に戻した。この分野で年間500億ドル(約5兆円)規模にのぼる輸入の…

くにく【苦肉】
  【例文】
苦肉の策
a desperate measure/one's last resort


2013年12月23日 星期一

網民奈何不了馬英九--好官自為/南方朔:馬英九吃定網民

南方朔:馬英九吃定網民

近代的民主已進入所謂的「網路民主」或「數位民主」的新階段,有些理論家認為,由於人們更有表達的管道,人民的聲音會更加突出,因而民主可以更加活化。

但 這種理論是真的嗎?我最近重讀了美國法學泰斗桑士坦(Cass R. Sunstain)所著的《網路共和國》,又讀了美國亞利桑那州立大學政治教授興德曼(Matthew Hindman)所著的《數位民主之迷失》,他們的說法卻和其他人不同。他們認為政治依靠的是結構與實力,而不是無法發生作用的表達自由。因此統治者縱使 在網路上被人罵到臭頭,這對他們的結構與實力仍然影響不大,他仍在為所欲為。這也就是說,如果網路上的聲音不能集中成為一個結構和固定的實力,它對統治者 根本無法成為威脅,也很難成為改變的力量。

因此,馬英九民調只剩九‧三趴怎麼樣?他被網民選為十大惡人之首又怎麼樣?這對他的為所欲為完全不能發生遏止的作用。而他的吃定了人民是有理由的:

一,台灣的政府已不是個「有反應的政府」,已不會對民意作出回應,它雖然不可能壓制民意,但已養成一種不理會民意的習性,你們可以在媒體上、在網路上罵他,但這只是一種發洩的自由,卻不是改變政治的行動。一百萬人罵他,不等於一百萬人走上街頭要求改變。

二, 國民黨不管怎麼講,仍是台灣最大的政治結構。它有龐大的黨產,龐大的組織,眾多的地方角頭以及人們無從知悉的金錢資源,以及最龐大的媒體力量,只要一到了 選舉,這些資源一旦發動,它仍是最大的勢力,遠遠的超過了別的勢力。這個人臭了,就換另外的人,它仍是最有可能的贏家。

三,在這個「後 民主」的網路時代,整個民主政治已走往退化的方向,統治者在普通時候完全不理會人民的聲音,笑罵隨便你們,他只管自己的基本群眾加軍公教和富人的利益;到 了選舉的時候,他的結構勢力全部動員並向對手發動抹黑攻勢,他的無能就會被稀釋,一切又會回到基本盤,不致於像人們想的全軍潰敗。「後民主」時代的政治由 於已分為平常時候和選舉時候這兩塊,而這兩塊並不必然相關,這乃是統治者敢膽大妄為的主因。

因此,興德曼教授指出,人們對網路民主所形 成的氣氛不要太信以為真,氣氛可能是假,一定要把這種氣氛變成論述和結構,才可能形成足以改變現狀的結構和力量。今天的台灣,人們太注重網路上的嬉笑怒 罵,太不注重反對結構及勢力的經營,這才是我擔心的。如果一個只有九趴的領導人,他的政黨在未來的選舉中還可以免於潰敗,那就真是台灣民主真正的失敗!

2013年12月22日 星期日

2013年亞洲重大事件/ 中國防空識別區侵蝕台灣主權


2013年12月23日 07:26 AM

2013年亞洲六大事件



今年亞洲最重大的六個事件是什麽?這完全是個主觀問題。為 什麽是六個?怎樣才算是“重大”?此外,既然說到這了,我們這里的亞洲到底是什麽意思?這個詞自希羅多德(Herodotus)時代以來一直被用來指代 “歐洲以東的土地”。不過,現在聖誕節都快到了,我們還是趕快轉入正題吧。我們這里的亞洲就按照英國《金融時報》的定義——大體上包括從印度次大陸到澳大 利亞的地區。這一地區的國家有近40億人口,超過了世界人口的一半。“重大”在這里表示將在很多年裡影響大量人口——這一定義排除了小國里發生的有意義的 事件。
今年也不乏悲慘事件。台風“海燕”(Haiyan)僅在菲律賓就導致了6000多人喪生。印度一位23歲學生遭到強姦和殺害的荒誕事 件也造成很大影響,婦女遭受暴力對待這個長期被忽略的問題一下子引起了人們極大的關註。而在另一個完全不同的國度,時任澳大利亞總理陸克文(Kevin Rudd)斷言大宗商品繁榮時代結束了,凸顯了對中國帶動的“超級周期”結束的擔憂。其他可能的上榜事件包括:在香港有關機構拒絕修改關於企業董事會的規 定之後,阿裡巴巴(Alibaba)放棄了在香港首次公開招股(IPO)融資600億美元的計劃;泰國再次發生騷亂(這一幕似曾相識);巴基斯坦首次完成 和平權力交接,盡管結果是納瓦茲•謝里夫(Nawaz Sharif)第三次出任總理(這又是似曾相識的一幕)。
那麽,鼓點敲起來吧,今年六大事件是:
習 近平鞏固權力。在今年以前,中國領導層變得越來越集體化。新任國家主席扭轉了這一趨勢。他發起了反腐運動,使奢侈品製造商受挫,讓中共乾部噤若寒蟬,這場 運動甚至波及以前“不可撼動”的人物,包括原中共中央政治局常委周永康。習近平很可能將成為鄧小平以來權力最大的中國領導人。這讓他能夠穩妥地實施根本改 革,以解決中國經濟中存在的嚴重低效問題,改革的主要手段是讓市場發揮更大作用。在對外方面,習近平似乎更加不避諱展示中國的力量。
尖 閣諸島/釣魚島及其附屬島嶼。一個跡象是,圍繞東中國海爭議島嶼的緊張局勢日益加劇。北京方面正在試探東京和華盛頓維護日本對這片島嶼行政管轄權的決心。 在美國政府關門期間,美國總統巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)缺席了在巴釐島召開的亞太經合組織(APEC)峰會,這件事強化了美國所肩負的責任正在減少的想法。(不過美國在台風海燕過後給予菲律賓的有 力支持有助於消除這種印象。)中國宣佈劃設“防空識別區”——覆蓋爭端島嶼空域——震驚了整個地區,並暴露了美日同盟的裂縫。
安倍經濟學 (Abenomics)。日本應對“中國威脅”的策略之一是由鷹派首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)推出的重振經濟舉措。其主要政策工具是大規模貨幣擴張措施,目的是結束長達15年的通縮。這些舉措為日本經濟註入新活力,然而懷疑論者認為這一政 策將逐漸失去效力。即便日本成功地將通脹再次提高到2%水平,也還需要面對人口老齡化且不斷萎縮的問題。而且,不論安倍經濟學成功與否,它都會給日本經濟 和國際資金流動帶來巨大影響。
對莫迪的熱望。納倫德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)在明年5月選舉後有望出任印度總理的可能性讓人們喜憂參半。支持者們希望,身為古吉拉特邦首席部長、印度民族主義政黨——印度人民黨 (Bharatiya Janata)總理候選人的莫迪能夠在全國復制古吉拉特邦經濟上的成就。反對者則擔心莫迪的反穆斯林傾向。他們還表示,莫迪在古吉拉特邦經濟發展中所起的 作用被誇大了,而且該邦經濟發展並未使貧民生活得到多大改善。
退出量化寬松的風聲。這件事並非發生在亞洲,嚴格地說這事還沒發生(註:美聯 儲已宣佈將縮減債券購買規模,此文寫在美聯儲宣佈這個消息之前)。但之前光是風聲就足以讓亞洲市場(特別是印度和印尼)陷入震盪了。在美聯儲真正採取動作 後,那些容易受到資金外逃影響的亞洲經濟體可能會受到重大打擊。
拉納大廈(Rana Plaza)事件。孟加拉國一棟建築倒塌,導致1129人喪生。這一事件引起全世界對孟加拉紡織工業的關註,人們看到,為了生產廉價衣物,數百萬名紡織工 人是在怎樣的悲慘狀況下辛勤工作著。從某些方面來說,孟加拉國的紡織業繁榮是好事,特別是對那些進血汗工廠也算好工作的女性來說。導致拉納大廈大規模死亡 事件的根源,一方面是當地的腐敗,另一方面則是西方企業寧願對工人勞動狀況視而不見。只有在這一事件引發變革,使經濟發展目標與確保人身安全與尊嚴的最低 標準之間能夠取得平衡之後,拉納大廈事件才具有重要意義。本文選擇這一事件,既是對未來的期盼,也是一種美好的願望。
譯者/何黎


****
 白樂崎專欄︰中國防空識別區侵蝕台灣主權

◎白樂崎
中國宣布在台灣以北劃設東海防空識別區(ADIZ),對亞太地區的和平穩定造成深遠影響和嚴肅意涵,台灣的主權問題也包括在內。
亞太地區的和平穩定受到威脅,因為這是中國長期戰略下的另一個片面行為,迫使周邊國家接受它的號令。尤其,這些受影響地區是往來東北亞(日本和韓國)和東南亞,擁有龐大載運量的飛航路線,而且還是日本、南韓、台灣及以南國家的重要航線。
中國的新舉動,將使其具備虛假的法律基礎,禁止國際海域上空的飛行,也讓牽涉在內的三個國家受制於它。那是相當令人不快的,受影響的國家應會清楚表達,這些新規則是不可接受的。
劃設ADIZ顯然是中國在尖閣諸島(釣魚台)問題上,迫使日本接受其作法,釣魚台從一八九五年開始為日本控制。過去幾年來,中國越來越強烈主張這個島鏈屬於中國領土,雖然它無法拿出任何可信證據,證實釣魚台曾受中國管轄。
中國這個片面行為唐突地改變現狀,顯然給人中國擺明不理會國際規範和價值的印象,而且中國對訴求和平解決歧異也不感興趣。的確,北京領導人看似打算犧牲鄰國恣意威嚇。
對台灣而言,情況很嚴峻,因為ADIZ與台灣經濟海域重疊,也確實涵蓋台灣政府主張屬於其領土之一的尖閣諸島。
中國的行為確實凸顯,這是中國領導人鞏固主權宣示的預謀策略,透過逐步擴展中國在東海和南海的海空控制權,現在輪到周邊空域。
但台灣應該表現鴕鳥心態,假裝這對主權不構成影響嗎?目前看來確實是如此,但問題是台灣的下一步為何?台灣是否會向中國明確表態,指出這種片面行徑存在重大問題,若中方不予撤銷,兩國關係將受影響?
台灣也應和其他有共同區域戰略利益的民主國家緊密合作,像是美國、日本和南韓。
美國已透過國防部長哈格爾和國務卿凱瑞的聲明,對中國此舉表達強烈抗議。為表露其強烈反對的立場,美國十一月二十五日也派出未武裝B-52轟炸機飛經該區。
若台灣想要保持擁有實質自由和民主的國家現況,便需要清楚意識到,要站在反對中國新規則國家的這一邊,而且也應不理會高壓、不民主的北京政權所施加的這個片面、無理的規定。
(作者白樂崎曾任美國副助理國務卿與美國駐波札那大使,一九九○到九五年出任美國在台協會理事主席,現為本報團顧問,本文僅代表作者個人觀點/國際新聞中心陳伃軒譯)

2013年12月18日 星期三

新加坡: 把53名外籍勞工驅逐出境,小印度暴動/ 網路抗議管制 :外籍勞工之痛


加坡政府將把53名外籍勞工驅逐出境,並對另外28名外籍勞工提起刑事訴訟,理由是這些人參與了該國的一次騷亂。這起罕見的騷亂是新加坡40年來首次發生的重大公共暴力事件。

這起騷亂發生在12月8日,因一起致命的交通事故惹怒數百名南亞勞工而起。騷亂事件凸顯出新加坡嚴重依賴外籍勞工所帶來的緊張局面,並引發了圍繞該國如何對待低技能外籍勞工的公開辯論。

新加坡內政部(Ministry of Home Affairs)週二發佈公告稱,新加坡警方已查明這53名未具名勞工(52名為印度籍勞工,另一名為孟加拉國籍勞工)參與了騷亂,而且沒有遵照警方的要求進行疏散。

Chun Han Wong

2013年 12月 10日 16:23

反思新加坡騷亂:外籍勞工之痛


自南亞的數百名勞工在新加坡掀起一場罕見的騷亂,再度引發了公眾對新加坡過度依賴外籍勞動所帶來的社會經濟影響及其可持續性的關注。


European Pressphoto Agency
一名印度裔勞工被一輛巴士撞死,在新加坡引發了騷亂。
周 日發生在新加坡“小印度”區的這起事件不僅終結了新加坡40余年無騷亂的歷史,也給這座城市國家作為亞洲最安全國家之一的形象抹了黑。“小印度”是新加坡 南亞僑民和外籍勞工週末的聚集地。分析人士和勞工維權人士說,新加坡有大量外籍勞工,不同民族之間的緊張情緒不斷加劇,這場騷亂凸現出新加坡決策者在試圖 維護社會凝聚力和抑制排外情緒方面所面臨的日益嚴峻的挑戰。

警方和目擊證人說,騷亂始于周日晚上9點30分左右,當時,一輛巴士撞死一名33歲的印度男子。電視畫面顯示,南亞外籍勞工在事故現場用棍棒、石塊和垃圾桶襲擊那輛巴士,隨后又攻擊了聞訊趕來的警察和醫務人員。

在大約300名警察的幫助下,騷亂于當晚11點前平息,但至少有39名執法人員和緊急服務人員以及肇事巴士的司機和售票員受了傷。警方、緊急服務機構和私人擁有的幾十輛車受損,其中五輛車被燒毀。

公 開暴力行為在新加坡幾乎可說是聞所未聞,民眾集會在新加坡受到嚴格控制。但新加坡國立大學李光耀公共政策學院(Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy)經濟學教授Hui Weng Tat說,從某種程度上講,像這樣的事件是一定會發生的,特別是考慮到“小印度”周末會有成千上萬的人聚在那里。他說,一些外籍勞工對所謂的歧視和惡劣工 作條件不滿,可能是導致這場騷亂的原因之一。他還說,決策者或許應該考慮提高外籍勞工的薪資和待遇。

新加坡人力部(Manpower Ministry)在回應外界詢問時說,被逮捕的與騷亂事件有關的外籍勞工受雇于不同雇主,他們被關押在不同地點;沒有證據表明他們的不法行為與工作場所的問題有關;無論如何,沒有人可以凌駕于法律之上。

警 方說,他們已逮捕了27人,其中24人為印度籍,兩人為孟加拉籍,一人是新加坡永久居民,年齡在23歲到45歲之間。這些人的名字尚未公開。不清楚這27 人是否以及何時會被起訴,也不知他們是否得到了法律幫助。新加坡當局將這起事件定性為“持危險武器參與騷亂”,一旦被定罪,將面臨最高10年監禁和鞭刑等 懲罰。警方說,可能會有更多人被逮捕。

肇事司機為55歲新加坡人,姓名不詳,警方已將其逮捕,並準備以疏忽致死罪對其進行起訴,這項罪名最高可判兩年監禁和罰款。記者未能立即聯繫到該巴士司機發表評論。

新加坡總理李顯龍週一在公告中稱,他已下令調查這起由不法暴徒引起的孤立事件,並表示將徹查騷亂的起因,包括官員對這起事件的應對,以及政府部門對外籍勞工聚集區的管理方式。

截至6月底,新加坡外籍勞工已達到130萬人左右,而新加坡總人口只有540萬。騷亂事件發生後,人們擔心龐大的外來勞工還可能引發更多動盪。研究人員稱,新加坡有大量南印度勞工。

為了推動經濟增長,新加坡過去10年實行了自由移民政策,使其人口增加了27%。由於擔心這種增長模式難以為繼,過去三、四年里新加坡政府限制了外來人口的流入,希望安撫選民的不滿情緒。許多新加坡市民將低工資、高物價和基礎設施緊張歸咎于大量移民。

而外籍勞工的怨氣也在這一制度下不斷加深。近年來,一些工資特別低的建築工人已經組織抗議活動反對所謂的雇主壓榨。去年,170名華裔公交司機舉行非法罷工,結束了新加坡26年無罷工的歷史。

李顯龍試圖緩解騷亂事件引發的憂慮。他在公告中稱,大多數的外籍勞工是遵守新加坡法律的,絕不能讓這起不好的事件抹黑新加坡人對外籍勞工的看法。

警方不願給這起騷亂的原因下結論。新加坡交通部長呂德耀說,酒精可能是引發騷亂的一個因素。但勞工維權人士反駁說,多數低薪外籍勞工買不起太多酒。

警方表示,他們將格外關注小印度、外籍勞工宿舍和其他聚集地。

新加坡上一次騷亂發生在1969年,當時,佔人口多數的華人和佔人口少數的馬來人之間爆發了一場種族暴力衝突,造成至少四人死亡,80人受傷。

Chun Han Wong


 Little India, Singapore
The past two months have been a busy time for Singaporean activists of a hackerish persuasion. Many of them have been declaring their resistance to the government's new "internet-licensing" regime and to plans for a major revision of the Broadcasting Act, due in 2014. Their protests have taken place both on and offline http://econ.st/199DtXf

2013年12月17日 星期二

中國政府允許地方移山填海為賺錢Turbulence Ahead for U.S., China Ties 中國不再韜光養晦了嗎?


China's Sprawling Cities Bet Their Future on Getting Even Bigger


Local Governments Approve Steps Such as Cutting Down Hills to Open New Space


Dec. 16, 2013 10:33 p.m. ET
SHIYAN, China—Authorities here worried a few years ago that the local economy was headed for ruin because there was no more space in this remote city, nestled among towering hills, for industry to grow.
The solution? Level the hills.
Shiyan, China, chops down hills to gain land for development. Tim Franco for The Wall Street Journal
Officials launched a campaign to blast hundreds of hilltops and low mountain peaks, leaving man-made valleys through the forested slopes that surround the city of 800,000 in central China. The goal is to expand its area by 70% so it can draw more manufacturing projects.
"It's very difficult for Shiyan to attract investment," said Gong Bailin, an official of the local economic planning agency. "We've paid a high price, but there's now large scope for further development." The nearly $2 billion hill-chopping plan now is about 60% completed.
Shiyan shows the lengths to which Chinese cities are going as they increasingly rely on land, and revenue from its development, to keep growth going.
The strategy gives cities hope for ever more investment and jobs, provided they can lure enough new factories or other projects to occupy the land they are clearing.
It also loads cities with more debt, exposing them to problems if property and export markets don't keep booming. Beyond that risk is the environmental and social costs from clearing more terrain at a time when popular anger over rapid development and land seizures is growing.
A model of a housing project built on land where hills have been chopped for development. In a measure of tepid demand, the development company has given away cars to lure buyers. Tim Franco for The Wall Street Journal
Industrial parks are a particular concern because of the chance that their roads, power plants, sewage systems and other infrastructure may not draw enough projects to pay for themselves. Chinese industries from steel to shipbuilding already face overcapacity.
Occupancy rates were less than half at about 40% of 341 Beijing-approved industrial parks, according to a survey the Ministry of Land and Resources did in 2011. Analysts said occupancy could be lower still for thousands of other parks without the same high-level support.
Regardless, municipal governments continue to build. "This is what I call the cowboy economy," said Karl Hallding, head of China research at the Stockholm Environment Institute, a research center in Sweden. "Local governments have a lot of power, and the central government seems to have a lot of trouble reining them in."
The push to develop more land is driven largely by local government officials whose career advancement is tied to delivering fast economic growth, analysts say. Clearing more land stimulates economic activity in the short term and holds the long-term promise of being followed by major investments. For city leaders, having plenty of land available is a marketing tool to entice investors.
"Chinese mayors are using land as their banks," said Karen Seto, a professor of the urban environment at Yale University. "They look at the mountains and see they can literally turn them into condominiums."
To launch developments such as industrial parks, local governments usually have to borrow, sometimes heavily. To repay, they count on sales of decadeslong land leases to developers of residential and commercial buildings.
The model has kept working so far, as demand for industrial parks and housing has stayed strong. But as developments proliferate and overall economic growth in China slows, analysts say localities' reliance on land leases makes them vulnerable.
"If the land market cools, land prices drop and the volume of land transfers falls, not only will the funding of some projects experience difficulties, but it will likely produce financial crises," Ba Shusong, a researcher at the Development Research Center, a think tank under China's State Council, said in a recent article in the People's Daily.
Officials debated the issue at a party Central Committee meeting in November, called the Third Plenum. Its final document said officials aimed to "raise the efficiency of cities' use of land," but didn't give specifics.
Exactly how much debt China's local governments have piled up isn't certain, as figures aren't regularly tracked. When the National Audit Office last counted in 2010, it put the figure at 10.72 trillion yuan (about $1.76 trillion). Debt has since risen to the equivalent of $2.46 trillion to $4.92 trillion, or 30% to 60% of China's gross domestic product, according to estimates by government officials and analysts. In the U.S., state and local debt is about 18% of GDP, according to the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank.
The head of China's National Audit Office, Liu Jiayi, recently said local government debt levels were manageable.
The Third Plenum document promised to make it harder for local governments to take over farmland, potentially threatening that aspect of the cities' strategy. Beijing already imposes some restraints on land seizures, issuing an annual limit to preserve a minimum amount of arable land, around 465,000 square miles.
But cities that have ambitions exceeding Beijing's limits—or are constrained by natural boundaries, as Shiyan is—are seeking out new land sources.
Coastal cities are aggressively creating industrial space by reclaiming land from the sea. In the Bay of Bohai in China's northeast, about 80 square miles of land has been reclaimed around Caofeidian, once a quiet fishing island. Off the coast of Shandong province between Beijing and Shanghai, the town of Longkou plans over three years to create 11 square miles by building a cluster of small islands.
The hill-leveling strategy of Shiyan is also on display in far western China's Gansu province, where about 700 hills are being cut down to make way for a new satellite city outside of the provincial capital, Lanzhou.
Yan'an, where in the 1930s China's Communists hid from Nationalist troops in mountain caves, now has launched a mountain-demolition project.
Shiyan, two hours by car from the nearest commercial airport, was just a village until the late 1960s, when worries about possible war with the Soviet Union led Mao Zedong to relocate much of China's industrial production to the relative safety of mountainous regions. Shiyan, in Hubei province, became home of the Second Automobile Works, which is now known as Dongfeng Motor Corp. and is China's second-largest auto maker by sales.
But in 2003, Dongfeng moved its headquarters to Wuhan, the provincial capital. A Dongfeng joint venture with Nissan Motor Co. 7201.TO +2.54% later followed suit.
Before moving, Dongfeng asked Shiyan for about 80 acres of land, which the city couldn't provide, according to the Shiyan Bureau of Land and Resources. The company, in a written reply to questions, said its aspirations to become an international brand prompted its move to Wuhan, which has better transportation links.
To forestall further departures, Shiyan officials in 2007 made up their mind to create 15 square miles of new land.
"After Dongfeng decided to move the headquarters of two of its units, it looked as though the motor city could become an abandoned city," the Bureau of Land and Resources said. "Leveling mountains has become the golden key to resolve the problem of Shiyan's development impasse."
Demolition crews began using explosives to take down the hills, after which excavators moved in to clear the rubble. A visit in October found excavators scraping at partially razed hilltops, filling fleets of heavy trucks with soft, yellow soil.
Dust hung low in the air throughout a broad area, giving the city a hazy feel.
In villages outside the city, farmers who used to cultivate the hillsides now try to make do with the land left to them on the valley floor. Although the city provided compensation, some farmers complain it doesn't offset their loss of farming income. Village children walk to school along dirt roads cut through the hills, shared with heavy trucks.
"At night we can't sleep because of all the noise" from the land being leveled, said Li Xuefei, a 37-year-old who lives in Qiliyacun, a tiny village at the bottom of a gully next to a residential development.
Bao Wei, deputy director of the Shiyan Environmental Protection Agency, said that "the dust from cutting down the mountains does cause some pollution, but it's not on a big scale, and afterward we restore the bare hills. So all told, the environmental impact isn't too great."
Most of the newly created level land is earmarked for industry and warehouses, with a small amount dedicated to housing.
In January, AB Volvo VOLV-B.SK -0.80% agreed to purchase 45% of a new unit of Dongfeng Motors that is dedicated to making commercial vehicles back in Shiyan.
The site is backed by a white cliff face, the remains of a hill that was split in half to create level land. This fall, workers were busy laying the foundations of a gear factory.
"By leveling the mountains, what did we dig out? We dug out a Volvo," said Pu Guolin, head of agricultural zoning at the city's economic planning agency. "If Shiyan hadn't razed the mountains, there is no way Volvo could have come here."
Dongfeng, asked why it chose Shiyan for the plant, cited the city's experience in making heavy vehicles and the company's sense of responsibility toward its traditional home. Volvo declined to comment.
Shiyan officials said they level hills only after securing industrial tenants, who they said are queuing up. They estimated the Shiyan economy is growing more than 10% this year, well above China's national growth rate of around 7.5%.
Shiyan's statistics bureau said that residential space sold was up 29% in the first half of 2013 from a year earlier.
Still, huge swaths of newly leveled land remain unoccupied. And on a recent day, one residential development built on a cut-down hill was offering free cars to people who bought apartments, while another development nearby was offering customers who were willing to buy an entire floor an additional floor free.
Some underground lenders, an important source of credit in the local economy, said they were no longer willing to lend to property developers or people looking to buy apartments in Shiyan, out of concern that demand is weakening.
Tri-Ring Group Corp., a manufacturing company, is building a factory to produce dump trucks and tractors on 120 acres of new land outside of Shiyan. The company laid the foundations in April 2010 and, according to its website, planned to finish construction in 2011.
A visit to the site in October showed just half of the planned buildings had been constructed, with weather-beaten signs marking what remained to be built. The only evident activity was a handful of workers installing wiring in the gatehouse by the main road.
A spokesman for Tri-Ring said it plans to move into the new facility in May.
Pengyuan Credit Rating, in assessing the company set up by Shiyan's government to handle construction of projects on new land, said that its debts were high, that it would be under pressure in paying the interest and that its income was exposed to fluctuations in property prices.
The government company's cash from selling decadeslong leases on land hasn't been sufficient to cover loan payments over the past two years, and additional borrowing was needed to cover the shortfall, according to details disclosed by the rating firm. The price at which land is offered to developers is only marginally more than it costs to develop land from the hills and mountains, according to city figures.
The government company said it can repay its debts in full and on time.
—Qi Liyan contributed to this article.

Turbulence Ahead for U.S., China Ties

Dec. 17, 2013 5:31 a.m. ET

China's foreign relations in modern times—particularly with the U.S. and Asian neighbors—have been guided by a doctrine of prudence embodied in Deng Xiaoping's famous maxim "taoguang, yanghui"—"bide our time; hide our capabilities."
韜光養晦
比喻隱藏才能,不使外露。清˙鄭觀應˙盛世危言˙序:「自顧年老才庸,粗知易理,亦急擬獨善潛修,韜光養晦。」
Mr. Deng correctly calculated that once the world understood the full implications of an emerging Asian giant, it would stir up anxieties and upset the external harmony that China needed to pursue its economic development. He was suspicious, too, that the U.S. secretly...

2013年12月14日 星期六

U.S. Navy-China showdown: Chinese try to halt U.S. cruiser in international waters

U.S. Navy-China showdown: Chinese try to halt U.S. cruiser in international waters

The USS Cowpens seen here in this Defense Department photo.The USS Cowpens seen here in this Defense Department photo.
A Chinese naval vessel tried to force a U.S. guided missile warship to stop in international waters recently, causing a tense military standoff in the latest case of Chinese maritime harassment, according to defense officials.
The guided missile cruiser USS Cowpens, which recently took part in disaster relief operations in the Philippines, was confronted by Chinese warships in the South China Sea near Beijing’s new aircraft carrier Liaoning, according to officials familiar with the incident.


“On December 5th, while lawfully operating in international waters in the South China Sea, USS Cowpens and a PLA Navy vessel had an encounter that required maneuvering to avoid a collision,” a Navy official said.
“This incident underscores the need to ensure the highest standards of professional seamanship, including communications between vessels, to mitigate the risk of an unintended incident or mishap.”
A State Department official said the U.S. government issued protests to China in both Washington and Beijing in both diplomatic and military channels.
The Cowpens was conducting surveillance of the Liaoning at the time. The carrier had recently sailed from the port of Qingdao on the northern Chinese coast into the South China Sea.
According to the officials, the run-in began after a Chinese navy vessel sent a hailing warning and ordered the Cowpens to stop. The cruiser continued on its course and refused the order because it was operating in international waters.
Then a Chinese tank landing ship sailed in front of the Cowpens and stopped, forcing the Cowpens to abruptly change course in what the officials said was a dangerous maneuver.


According to the officials, the Cowpens was conducting a routine operation done to exercise its freedom of navigation near the Chinese carrier when the incident occurred about a week ago.
The encounter was the type of incident that senior Pentagon officials recently warned could take place as a result of heightened tensions in the region over China’s declaration of an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea.
Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, recently called China’s new air defense zone destabilizing and said it increased the risk of a military “miscalculation.”
China’s military forces in recent days have dispatched Su-30 and J-11 fighter jets, as well as KJ-2000 airborne warning and control aircraft, to the zone to monitor the airspace that is used frequently by U.S. and Japanese military surveillance aircraft.
The United States has said it does not recognize China’s ADIZ, as has Japan’s government.
Two U.S. B-52 bombers flew through the air zone last month but were not shadowed by Chinese interceptor jets.
Chinese naval and air forces also have been pressing Japan in the East China Sea over Tokyo’s purchase a year ago of several uninhabited Senkaku Islands located north of Taiwan and south of Okinawa.

Read more: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/dec/13/us-navy-china-showdown-chinese-try-halt-us-cruiser/#ixzz2nRxD7t8Q
Follow us: @washtimes on Twitter

2013年12月12日 星期四

張成澤傳遭「犬決」 死的死逃的逃: Kim Jong-un 當場羞辱 Jang Song-thaek张成泽,中国“重拾权力诉求”,韩国“火上浇油”


張成澤傳遭「犬決」 金正恩全程觀看

【陳 怡妏/綜合外電報導】關於北韓「攝政王」張成澤遭革職整肅的原因眾說紛紜,一般認為是領導人金正恩在鞏固實權,但德國駐北韓大使薩佛獨排眾議12日表示, 北韓軍方是因張成澤推動和中國的經濟合作計劃,威脅到軍方地位,決定剷除。日本防衛大臣小野寺五典12日也表示,張成澤在勞動黨政治局會上被公開帶走的畫 面,讓他聯想到中國文化大革命的場面,擔心北韓未來可能會發生動盪。

香港《文匯報》12日稱張是由金正恩二哥金正哲親率護衛隊逮捕後,5日傳被「犬決」,即被關進鐵欄內由狗吞下肚了。張和5名親信被剝光衣後放入鐵欄內,放入120條餓了3天的東北獵犬撕咬,直到吃光。過程持續1小時,金正恩、李雪主帶300多高官觀看。
 
張成澤傳遭「犬決」。(資料照片)翻攝網路



南韓電視台「TV朝鮮」11日在獨家報導中引述中國高階消息人士的話說,在北韓領袖金正恩8日革除姑丈國防委員會副委員長張成澤一切職務後,有兩位北韓副總理逃到中國避難


Yonhap/Reuters
News Analysis
A Gamble for North Korea’s Young Leader
By CHOE SANG-HUN


In publicly dismissing his uncle and mentor, Jang Song-thaek, above being forced out of a meeting, Kim Jong-un removed a potential challenger to his power.


关调查得出的线索源头指向中国。
朝鲜前“二号人物”张成泽或已被处决



►◄中国各大官方媒体援引韩国媒体报道称,朝鲜已经处决了被外界称为"朝鲜二号人物"的张成泽。"新华网"援引设在首尔的"朝鲜自由电台"报道称,朝鲜以往最具有影响力的政治家、被解除了所有职务的金正恩的姑父张成泽,早在宣布其被解职所有职务之前就被处决。本周一(12月9日),朝鲜当局确认解除了张成泽作为朝鲜军事委员会副委员长等职务。朝鲜电视台播放了在领导人金正恩出席的朝鲜劳动党大会上,张成泽被两名穿军服的人带出会场的镜头。但据"平壤资深高官消息",相关电视画面是在周日召开大会前拍摄的。被视为"改革派"的张成泽已经在劳动党大会正式召开前夕被处决。目前此消息还未获得朝鲜官方任何形式的确认。

官媒称张成泽被处决,北京感到不安?


在周一朝鲜当局确认解除张成泽的职务、并播放其被捕画面后,中国官媒称张成泽已在上周四被处决。与中国关系紧密的张成泽的垮台,是否会对中朝关系产生影响?

中国“重拾权力诉求”,韩国“火上浇油”

德语媒体本周关注韩国日前宣布扩展航空识别区的消息。指出东亚冲突局势目前已经处于一触即发的状态。德媒指出,第一次世界大战爆发100周年纪念来临之际,政治家们不应过分相信自己的判断能力。
(德国之声中文网)德国《世界报在线》政治板块周日(12月9日)刊登了题为"中国试探邻国的实力"(China testet die Stärke seiner Nachbarn)的文章,指出:目前在东中国海海域的争端是一场中国和邻国及美国的争端。"到目前为止,相关国家只是摆出了威胁的态度。但这还是唤起了 人们对1914年的回忆,那时欧洲陷入一片战火之中。"
Südkorea Kampfflugzeug 韩国军队正在和美英两国举行联合军演
作者在文章的开头写道:"看上去,东亚的几大强国想在1914年那场全球性灾难纪念日来临之际让世界看到,我们是如何能够从平衡转向失 衡,从对抗转向冲突,从紧张局势转向战争局势的。东、南中国海的局势以及被中国视为安全缓冲区的睦邻关系已经变得非常危险。对于直接的参与方来说是这样, 对于全球的贸易、原材料供应和能源价格来说也是如此。"
世界上最危险的地方
文章随后指出,在军事部署威胁以及空军演习的伴随下,想要缓解逐渐紧张的关系,就务必需要治国才能,克制的态度以及'后台外交 '(Backchannel-Diplomatie)。"但到目前为止,我们看到情况则完全相反。过去几百年里的分割土地和殖民扩张已变为对海域和空域的 争夺。联合国新出台的海洋法让许多控制区出现重叠,同时中国和美国都以不信任对方的眼神盘旋在那里,世界上没有其他任何一个地方的情况比这两种因素的组合 更加危险。"
文章随后写道:"中国不是为了追求诗情画意才将自己称为'中央帝国',把天安门视为世界的中心。中国的目标是,重拾失去了两百多年的权力诉求。向北,中国向日本方向扩展影响力,向南,则直接瞄准台湾。"
"中国有时间,却没耐心"
作者认为:"联合国没有足够的实力在这场争端中充当裁判的角色。它只能局限于奉行四平八稳的政策。而全世界该做好哪些准备呢?人们管这个叫做冲突的横向升 级,也就是说多个地点同时陷入几乎冲突一触即发的境地,但没有人开火。中国有时间,却没有多少耐心,它正在试验自己重新获得的实力,并试探其邻国的忍耐度和外交手腕。但它最主要的目标其实是在亚太地区能与其分庭抗礼的美国。"
作者在文章的最后再次提及第一次世界大战爆发100周年纪念,指出:"所有的这些就发生在离我们并不遥远的地方。即将到来的100周年纪念让我们有理由反思,那些伟大的战略家都能犯下怎样的严重过错。"
"韩国为岛屿争端火上添油"
同时,德广联新联播也关注了韩国本周日(12月9日)宣布扩大防空识别区的消息。发表了题为"韩国为岛屿争端火上浇油"(Südkorea befeuert Inselstreit)的文章。其中指出:"继中国在东中国海域设立备受争议的防空识别区后,韩国也宣布将扩大其防空识别区。首尔国防部公布的这一区域与中国的访识区部分重叠。"
Biden mit Park Geun-hye in Seoul 06.12.2013 美国是韩国坚定的支持者
报道随后写道:"韩国劝说中国调整防空识别区未果,这一区域与韩国自己的防空识别区重叠,并且还囊括一块韩国实际拥有控制权的海下礁石。这个韩国人口中的离于岛和其他偏远岛屿都将处于新设定的防空识别区内。该国已经在露出海平面的岛礁部分设立了一个科研基地。"
德国《明镜在线》(Spiegel Online)则于周日当天发表文章称:"韩国扩大了它在东中国海海域的防空识别区,这是针对中国的挑衅行为。"文章援引韩国国防部报道称:"这一区域与北京之前设立的防空识别区有重叠的部分。"
作者在文章中指出:"到目前为止,和中国进行的外交谈判没有取得任何成果。在这种紧张气氛下,国际社会担心,这一区域的冲突可能不会只停留在口头上,也可能导致军事冲突。"
摘编:任琛
责编:乐然

2013年12月11日 星期三

Thailand Rancor Swells / 泰國大分裂/ 曼谷開槍 Acts of heroism abound in the Philippines after Typhoon Haiyan

Thailand Rancor Swells as Protesters Push for Eradication of Shinawatra Family From Politics3


泰總理英拉決定提前大選,反對派不買賬

周一,反政府抗議者在曼谷遊行。
Dylan Martinez/Reuters
周一,反政府抗議者在曼谷遊行。

曼谷——面對可能惡化的街頭抗議活動以及主要反對黨議員的集體辭職,泰國總理周一呼籲重新選舉,這是她為平息人們對她所在的政黨以及她強大家族的憤怒所採取的最新嘗試。
總理英拉·西那瓦(Yingluck Shinawatra)周一早上在電視播放的一則聲明中說,「讓人民來決定國家的方向以及誰將成為執政的多數。」
  • 檢視大圖 周日,反對派領導人阿披實·威差奇瓦(前排左邊第二個)和黨內成員在民主黨位於曼谷的總部開會。
    Chaiwat Subprasom/Reuters
    周日,反對派領導人阿披實·威差奇瓦(前排左邊第二個)和黨內成員在民主黨位於曼谷的總部開會。

但是,重新選舉的呼籲並沒滿足抗議領導人的要求,他們帶領成千上萬示威者周一走上曼谷街頭示威,下次大選本該在2015年舉行。截至下午過半時,警方稱,抗議者人數已經超過了10萬。
抗議領導人安佳麗·派里拉克(Anchalee Paireerak)在提到選舉時說,「那不是我們的目的。我們會繼續遊行。」
雖然曼谷的很多地方並未受到遊行的影響,但過去兩周內發生的衝突已經造成5人死亡、數百人受傷。
抗議領導人呼籲用一個概念模糊的「人民委員會」取代該國的民主選舉制,這個計劃遭到公民領袖和學者的廣泛嘲弄,他們稱之為理想化、不可行,而且是倒行逆施。
泰國法律規定,選舉必須在2月2日之前舉行。但周一還不清楚反對派是否會像過去那樣抵制這次選舉。
反對黨一直都因自己無法在選舉中擊敗由富豪他信·西那瓦(Thaksin Shinawatra)支持的強大政治機器而深感沮喪。他信曾任泰國總理,目前流亡在國外,英拉是他的妹妹。
上次選舉是在2011年7月舉行的,當時執政黨獲得了1570萬張選票,而反對黨民主黨(Democrat Party)獲得的選票數量為1140萬張。
泰國歷史最久的政黨民主黨在周日宣布其成員退出議會,加入到反政府遊行中去,民主黨是泰國政治反對派的主要力量。
周日辭職的一位議員提普泰·西納彭(Theptai Seanapong)說,「我們贏不了他們。即使我們在議會表決中同時舉起手和腳,我們都永遠不會獲勝。」
抗議領袖之一、民主黨的一位前議會成員薩迪特·翁農托(Sathit Wongnongtoey)周一說,如果像憲法規定的那樣,由現任政府作為看守政府來維持局面的話,他擔心選舉中將會出現「作弊」。
 「他們將會再度執政,」薩迪特說,「我們不能讓那種事情發生。」
這種對選舉政治的不信任對整個東南亞地區都有影響,比如馬來西亞的執政黨一直在嚴格操縱選區的劃分;還有在柬埔寨,獨裁總理洪森(Hun Sen)利用國家機器和軍隊鞏固自己的權力。柬埔寨反對派指責7月份大選中出現大範圍的選舉舞弊,至今仍繼續抵制議會。
泰國與這些國家的一個主要區別是,他信所在的政黨受到多數選民歡迎的這個事實沒有什麼爭議。學者們說,執政的為泰黨(Pheu Thai Party)通過採取對地方選民、尤其是泰國北部的選民有利的政策,而令人信服地贏得了自2011年以來的每一次選舉。
反對黨一再表示,他信通過購買選票來維持其權力。泰國的兩位主要政治學研究者在上周發表的一篇廣為轉載的文章中,把這種指責描述為「危險的無稽之談」,他們指出,是政策、而不是購買選票堅定了地方上的很多選民對他信的忠誠。
民主黨對他信的政黨有很多不滿,認為執政黨強行通過一些支出議案,還抱怨議會的投票程序有問題(一家法院已經稱這些程序非法),以及議會在凌晨很早的時辰偷偷摸摸地通過一些重要法律等。
但是,對於一個長期以來給自己樹立了一種文雅的知識形象、提倡在議會內部解決分歧的政黨來說,走上街頭抗議的決定在民主黨內部也有爭議。
 儘管如此,該黨的行動與其7年前的一次行動有相似之處,一些觀察者認為這些相似令人擔憂。7年前,在針對時任總理的他信的街頭抗議運動中,民主黨抵制了2006年4月份的選舉。5個月以後,他信在一次軍事政變中被罷免。
在目前的示威中,抗議活動的領導人已經在拉攏軍方,很多抗議者公開呼籲要再來一次政變。但到現在為止,陸軍總司令巴育(Prayuth Chan-ocha)似乎對介入這場危機保持謹慎態度。
泰國報紙《今日郵報》(Post Today)周日報道稱,巴育說政變不能解決泰國的問題。該報援引他的話說,「我們必須要耐心地尋求一種和平的解決方案。」
Poypiti Amatatham對本文有報道貢獻。
翻譯:張亮亮

   泰国政治危机持续发酵


泰国总理英拉宣布解散议会并重新举行选举,但示威群众并不因此善罢甘休。反对派要求成立人民委员会取代现任政府并重新起草宪法。示威者则希望将英拉及其家族赶出泰国政坛。


 泰國反對派為了反映對政府的不滿,又再次站出來,號召群眾佔領曼谷。雞蛋對抗高牆的政變,換來又一次的流血衝突。佔領行動已演變成流血事件,並蔓延至其它地區,全泰75府有31府出現示威,包括中港台旅遊勝地布吉。
News Analysis
Protests Reflect Deep Divisions in Thailand
Experts say Thailand is seeing a steady unraveling of an old consensus about who wields political power and who receives government largess.

Protests

Thailand protests turn deadly, gunshots fired in Bangkok


Deadly gunshots have been fired as opponents and supporters of Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra have clashed in Bangkok. Thai security officials have said military backup is being deployed to quell the violence.
At 18, Jomar Pascual is the head of his orphaned family of four brothers and a sister in Tacloban, the Philippines.
Grief and Heroism as Survivors Struggle in the Philippines

By KEITH BRADSHER

Acts of heroism abound in the Philippines after Typhoon Haiyan, often with a special emphasis on ensuring the survival of children.


中國向南海派遣航母受到密切關注
 菲律賓周三警告稱,中國向南中國海派遣其首艘航空母艦的行為可能加劇該爭議水域的緊張局勢。
美國稱讚日本在識別區問題上表現克制
更新:美國軍機挑戰中國防空識別區
區別防空識別區、領空和專屬經濟區概念
中國網民不滿政府對美轟炸機事件的反應
日本民航無視中國防空識別區安全嗎?


韩国警告东北亚局势恶化



首尔
在中国宣布扩大有争议海区的军事空域后,韩国警告东北亚紧张局势加剧。韩国外交通商部长官尹炳世周三(11月27日)在首尔的一个论坛会上表示,中国在东中国海设置防空识别区使本已复杂的对相关地区形势的处理更为困难。韩国联合通讯社报道说,尹炳世指出,韩国方面看到,有关各方在地区的竞争和冲突明显增加。他强调,如果再掺入民族主义,则既有的领土主权争议和历史纠葛都会使情况急剧恶化。不过,尹炳世同时表示不必过度忧虑,他称,通过合作解决危机是可能的。中国新近宣布在东中国海设置“防空识别区”,其范围同韩国和日本所设防空识别区互有重叠,导致两国抗议。各方尤其担心,中日岛屿争议可能激化。


 
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德国之声 27.11.2013 | 16:00 UTC

新闻报道


中国成为日本最大“假想敌”


安倍晋三上台以来,日本不断加强军备,调整战略部署,以应对来自中国的威胁。尽管日本军事专家认为中国的海军实力还不及日本,但是保卫主权争议岛屿已成为自卫队战争准备的一部分。


中国设防空识别区或促使中日双边谈判


中国近日宣布新设"东海防空识别区",引起美日等国批评抗议。周二,美国两架B52远程轰炸机飞经东中国海引起争议的海区空域。中国国防部之后表示,中方进行了"全程监控、及时识别判明了美方飞机类型",并称"中方有能力对相关空域实施有效管控"。就中国设立"东海防空识别区"及影响,本台记者采访了美国华盛顿《防务新闻》周刊亚洲部负责人颜文德(Minnick Wendell)。


美军“挑战”防空识别区 北京反应克制


两架美军轰炸机飞越中国刚刚划定的东海防空识别区,并在中日存在主权争议的岛屿附近上空飞行,而事先没有通知中国。对此中方反应较为克制,但地区局势紧张仍在升级。


泰國部長:形勢嚴峻但「不會有政變」

更新時間 2013年11月28日, 格林尼治標準時間03:26
泰國示威者(27/11/2013)
乍都隆表示,泰國目前的局勢「相當嚴峻」。
泰國教育部長對英國廣播公司BBC表示,儘管該國反政府示威活動已進入第5天,但他不相信近期會發生政變。
目前,數以萬計的反政府示威者繼續圍困更多的政府辦公大樓,試圖癱瘓政府運作。反政府抗議活動已蔓延至泰國其它地區。
泰國國會議員星期四(11月28日)將就不信任動議舉行投票,決定是否彈劾總理英祿。
泰國教育部長乍都隆表示,泰國目前的局勢「相當嚴峻」,示威者試圖推翻政府的目的「不符合憲法精神」。
但乍都隆說,「到目前為止」,軍方似乎並不支持示威者。
乍都隆在接受BBC記者海德採訪時表示,政府需要在議會「重新贏得選民的信任」。
他指出,一些人不再信任政府或聯盟黨,但這並不意味著他們可以採取行動推翻政府,或者改變這個體制。
在前總理他信的問題上,乍都隆認為執政的為泰黨正面對一個兩難局面。他說,政府應當找到某種平衡。乍都隆本人曾任他信政黨領導人,以及前副總理。
乍都隆說,現任總理英祿正非常努力地向外界表明,「她不受其兄長他信的擺佈」。
乍都隆承認,儘管他認為現時政變不大可能,但是,以他的經驗來看,「政變也隨時可能發生」。
要求政府下台的抗議人士星期三包圍了首都曼谷城外更多的政府辦公大樓。
由於示威者的包圍,泰國政府重要的反犯罪司法部門——泰國特別調查部被迫緊急疏散。示威領導人說,他們要迫使政府部門關閉,讓政府無法辦公,逼迫現政府下台。
聯合國秘書長潘基文說,他對曼谷「政局緊張關係加劇」感到關注。潘基文辦公室發表聲明說,「秘書長呼籲所有各方保持最大克制,避免使用暴力,尊重法治和人權」。
反政府示威活動已衝擊泰國的旅遊業。據泰國外交部發佈的消息稱,目前已有23個國家向本國民眾發出提醒公告,警告民眾在前往泰國旅遊公幹時避免前往集會附近地區。
香港對泰國的外遊警示仍然維持黃色級別,目前已有旅行社率先取消泰國旅行團。旅遊業議會表示,正密切關注當地情況,旅遊團應避免前往示威區,以確保安全。
(編譯:蕭爾  責編:李莉)

泰國抗議領袖從幕后走到台前
 在泰國曼谷的反政府抗議活動中,幾乎是一夜之間,64歲的職業政治家素貼從老派幕后策劃者變成了支持者眼中的搖滾明星。
泰國反政府抗議升級 首都加強戒備

 泰国民众抗议浪潮持续



曼谷
持续数天的泰国民众反政府抗议浪潮继续扩大。本周三,又有成千上万示威者游行前往首都曼谷北区,冲击在那里的政府诸机构。示威抗议行动也在其他城市发生。据泰国媒体报道,昨晚,反对派领导人呼吁民众,占领所有各部和行政管理建筑物。数天来的民众抗议浪潮是2010年春季以来泰国发生的迄今最大规模抗议行动,其导火线是政府计划中的一项引起争议的赦免法。根据这一赦免法,参与2010年暴力行为者将不受法律制裁。示威者们要求英拉政府下台。英拉是2006年被军方推翻的前总理他信之妹。反对派指控现政府是他信的傀儡政府。